France 2012: the official thread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I hope Hollande wins, given Sarkozy's a creep and turning France into the next Italy might finally achieve some success in discrediting leftist economics over there.

Hollande probably won't govern particularly from the left. I can't imagine him being in any sort of position to unyoke the Franco-German arrangement.

[tpfkaw]

I hope Hollande wins, given Sarkozy's a creep and turning France into the next Italy might finally achieve some success in discrediting leftist economics over there.

Hollande probably won't govern particularly from the left. I can't imagine him being in any sort of position to unyoke the Franco-German arrangement.

Given that his whole platform is based on reversing (and beyond) all of Sarkozy's cuts at the same time as France is being downgraded, France would risk default upon his election (assuming he's being honest about his platform).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hope Hollande wins, given Sarkozy's a creep and turning France into the next Italy might finally achieve some success in discrediting leftist economics over there.

Hollande probably won't govern particularly from the left. I can't imagine him being in any sort of position to unyoke the Franco-German arrangement.

Given that his whole platform is based on reversing (and beyond) all of Sarkozy's cuts at the same time as France is being downgraded, France would risk default upon his election (assuming he's being honest about his platform).

Reversing (and beyond) Sarkozy's inane tax cuts which benefit the wealthier and do nothing for the economy at the same time as France is being downgraded seems a pretty sound policy to me.

Unfortunately, it's doubtful Hollande will go as far. One can still hope, though.

[Hash]

You clearly need to read-up on French political history if you think the platform of the left is a guide to what the left in power does. Guy Mollet, for sure, ended the Algerian war!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You clearly need to read-up on French political history if you think the platform of the left is a guide to what the left in power does. Guy Mollet, for sure, ended the Algerian war!

Yes, the gap between rhetoric and policy is... large.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL, Le Pen was even more despicable than I expected. And Mélenchon was k**king brilliant, if only I agreed with him on policies I'd be enthused to vote for him.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

LOL, Le Pen was even more despicable than I expected. And Mélenchon was k**king brilliant, if only I agreed with him on policies I'd be enthused to vote for him.

Anybody truly on the Left would agree with him. I clearly don't give a penny about the Left-Right divide, or for most of it, and overall for it's future, but in the end I very well might finish with a Front de Gauche ballot in my hands.

And yeah, he showed all his potential tonight, while Le Pen made a big time of contempt, and show all her arrogance almost stating that 40% of workers belonged to her, and using polls (bloody non sensical polls) to present herself as the 3rd big political force of the country which only deserved to speak with the 2 biggest ones.

In the end she appears at best as an arrogant, and anyhow as a little spoiled girl making her tantrums, was rather enjoyable how Mélenchon succeeded to ridiculize her while remaining quite classy, if he keeps controlling his nerves (the opposite would be his major flaw) then he has a lot of chances to realize what I think about him.

Marine Le Pen is already becoming less and less stable, and it's only the beginning of the campaign.

[big bad fab]

LOL@Sarko. He will end up as the only candidate of the right, get a half-decent score but have no room to grow on second round.

Please go to my blog: new graphs on vote transfers from one round to the other.

Graphs understandable even for English-speaking readers

[redcommander]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

I hope this post will be quoted in your sig after may 6. If it's not, I'll take care of it.

Never doubt the incompetence of the PS. If they wanted to win, they should have nominated Montebourg not Hollande. Yes Hollande is still the favorite, but he is a much less appealing candidate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

I hope this post will be quoted in your sig after may 6. If it's not, I'll take care of it.

Never doubt the incompetence of the PS. If they wanted to win, they should have nominated Montebourg not Hollande. Yes Hollande is still the favorite, but he is a much less appealing candidate.

In an election which will be determined by moderates (and in particular traditionally center-right voters who loathe Sarkozy), nominating Montebourg was probably the last thing to do. There might have been a case for Aubry (I personally considered her more "solid"), but Hollande has nonetheless proven to be a strong candidate.

[Hash]

Nominating Montebourg? Please stop saying words.

BTW, you're right, Antonio. Melenchon crused Marion. I'm going to vote for him.

[You kip if you want to...]

...Montebourg for PM though ofc

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

...Montebourg for PM though ofc

If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic.

[You kip if you want to...]

...Montebourg for PM though ofc

If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic.

I was joking

[Leftbehind]

Nowhere to watch these debates subtitled? I'd love to see them.

Am I remembering correctly that the BBC showed some of the last election's debates? I remember them being run-off one's, but they might've shown some of the previous ones too - I missed them all. 

[You kip if you want to...]

Found out yesterday that I have what's basically my final French exam the morning after the first round. Great.

[Peter the Lefty]

...Montebourg for PM though ofc

If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic.

I was joking

How about for finance minister? And no, that's not a joke.  Though it would probably be a great way to PO Merkel, Lagarde, and the banks.

[MaxQue]

...Montebourg for PM though ofc

If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic.

I was joking

How about for finance minister? And no, that's not a joke.  Though it would probably be a great way to PO Merkel, Lagarde, and the banks.

I doubt he wants to annoy them.
But, sure, he has almost no choice, he has to find a office for Montebourg.

[RogueBeaver]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

[Peter the Lefty]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

What is this thing he wants to do? I read about it, but the only article I could find about it was on the World Socialist Website (which is, for anyone who doesn't know, a Trotskyist lunatic site) which called him a nazi and gave only a few parts of his quote with many groups of three dots throughout.   I don't think I can trust half of the stuff the article said about him.  What did he say, exactly?

[RogueBeaver]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

That's how Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the runoff a decade ago- by poaching PS voters. Immigration/cultural policy is one half, the bipartisan economic consensus on soft neoliberalism another. (Resident French, please correct me if I missed something here)

Peter: Internment camps where they would be held in between being rounded up and shipped back to Romania (which is Sarko's current policy, minus internment camps) and some sort of border controls. The latter of which could well violate EU open-borders agreements if implemented.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If you're being serious I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic.

I was joking

How about for finance minister? And no, that's not a joke.

I must say it's always very enjoyable to see how comments from abroad can be exotic.

Seriously, Montebourg on Economy? What about Jospin in Sports (hey he played basket-ball)?

You want a Ministry for Montebourg? Hmm, let me know...

PM: Moscovici, Sapin, Aubry, other, no way for Montebourg
Interior: Valls, other, no way for Montebourg
Foreign Office: Védrine, Fabius, Lang, other, no way for Montebourg
Economy: Cahuzac, Moscovici, Aubry??, other, no way for Montebourg

Was going to try to write a full shadow govt for an eventual PS victory, but heck, it's 03.03 am and seems my mind is resisting to this idea, then I won't go further by now, should have been in my mind while I was still thinking Hollande could have significant chances, that is well, circa his victory in primaries.

Since Montebourg seems to raise some attention, the biggest he could hope would be Justice, very eventually Labour/Social affairs, very eventually external trade, and my mind is resisting again to try to find some other eventualities.

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Lol at thinking anybody in the 'big boys' (sorry Martine, but well, she was far more feminine when she was young, and even rather cute) of PS is looking at doing this. And about Montebourg, he and his ideas would certainly be part of the future of the Left, at least on the short term, but seeing as a man full of conviction is a bit too much, that's merely a fanfaron, of which the energy might be useful in the future, when (thankfully!!) this bloody PS will be destroyed, or will deeply mutate, but well...

And well, Hollande and FN, he has nothing to do to put the hand on the eventual FN voters that can still move, that is at most anything that would go beyond 10%, since a majority of those would vote for the most anti-system possible thing, then eventually Le Pen, in 1st round, and in a Hollande-Sarkozy run off, they would automatically vote against the incumbent. Thinking Hollande can, and would, put the hand on some FN people by playing on some far-rightist speeches is rather, lol.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

That's how Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the runoff a decade ago- by poaching PS voters. Immigration/cultural policy is one half, the bipartisan economic consensus on soft neoliberalism another. (Resident French, please correct me if I missed something here)

So the concern is that FN would actually take more from PS than from UMP, even though a few polls from a while back were showing Marine edging Sarko into the runoff and then getting crushed by Hollande?

[Hash]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

Because of gaucho-lepenisme.

That's how Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the runoff a decade ago- by poaching PS voters. Immigration/cultural policy is one half, the bipartisan economic consensus on soft neoliberalism another. (Resident French, please correct me if I missed something here)

... but the phenomenon of gaucho-lepenisme is nowhere near as widespread or determinant as people want to make us think it is. For starters, the bulk of the FN's working-class vote is mostly from the 3 in 10 who voted for the right in the 1970s, not the 7 in 10 who voted for the left. JMLP's 2002 performance, compared to his result in 1995 (less than +1% or so), was nothing spectacular. He only gained a few points, and in a fair number of areas - ironically some PCF or traditionally left-wing working-class areas - he lost votes in 2002 compared to 1995.

2002 was more some freakish aberration than any significant realignment of the FN vote or a spectacular FN surge. It really is unfortunate that everybody assumes they know a sh**tload about the FN, when in reality they only know the anecdotal 'evidence' and theories sprouted by a few in the media who clearly don't know sh**t about the FN or its history or its voters.