France 2012: the official thread

[Hash]

I will literally shoot the next person who continues to buy into the PCF>FN transfer lies.

[big bad fab]

The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

[Antonio the Sixth]

The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

I've made a little calculation and, depending how you account for the daily IFOP, this week's average goes from 56.86 to 57.08 for Hollande. So yeah, depending on the other weeks, it's roughly unchanged.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

I've made a little calculation and, depending how you account for the daily IFOP, this week's average goes from 56.86 to 57.08 for Hollande. So yeah, depending on the other weeks, it's roughly unchanged.

Well, actually, with the OpinionWay one, it's between 56.75 and 56.93...

[big bad fab]

The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

I've made a little calculation and, depending how you account for the daily IFOP, this week's average goes from 56.86 to 57.08 for Hollande. So yeah, depending on the other weeks, it's roughly unchanged.

Well, actually, with the OpinionWay one, it's between 56.75 and 56.93...

56.69
Don't forget some old ones are dropped.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The trend is not so clear. Sarkozy is gaining ground on first round voters, true, but Hollande isn't really losing and on first round, the standings are roughly unchanged (even though there are differences between polling firms).

Yep, in the tracker, it will only slightly change on Monday...

I've made a little calculation and, depending how you account for the daily IFOP, this week's average goes from 56.86 to 57.08 for Hollande. So yeah, depending on the other weeks, it's roughly unchanged.

Well, actually, with the OpinionWay one, it's between 56.75 and 56.93...

56.69
Don't forget some old ones are dropped.

I was talking about this week's average. Hmmm, in this case, it means the most recent polls are slightly more favorable to Hollande than the old ones... Heartening.

[You kip if you want to...]

Okay, this is over.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/12/sarkozy-received-42m-from-gaddafi-to-fund-2007-election-campaign_n_1339333.html?ref=uk

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay, this is over.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/12/sarkozy-received-42m-from-gaddafi-to-fund-2007-election-campaign_n_1339333.html?ref=uk

Wow, really ??

No news in French media so far.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #45 - 12 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   

      

Hollande   29,53
Sarkozy   26,06
Le Pen   16,78
Bayrou   12,38
Mélenchon   8,74
Joly   2,73
Villepin   1,37   
Lepage   0,6
Dupont-Aignan   0,76   
(Nihous)   0,03
Arthaud   0,52
Poutou   0,48   
Cheminade   0,03


Hollande   56,69
Sarkozy   43,31


BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ?

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

France is, politically, an absolutely horrible country, but I still doubt they'll reelect Sarkozy.

[Tender Branson]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

[greenforest32]

Okay, this is over.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/12/sarkozy-received-42m-from-gaddafi-to-fund-2007-election-campaign_n_1339333.html?ref=uk

Sardaffi? Qaddkozy?

[redcommander]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

I concur.

[LastVoter]

May France be red.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ?

Yeah, I've seen the poll on your blog. What a bunch of retards.

[minionofmidas]

May France be red.

Pink. Red would be PCF.

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ?

Yeah, I've seen the poll on your blog. What a bunch of retards.

The pollsters or the voters ?

Don't lose your mind: even in mid-March 2007, some polls gave Sarkozy at 50,5 (or maybe even 50). I remember I was worried each morning to see another bad poll. And Bayrou was really close to Royal and would have beaten Sarkozy. Imagine how sad I was

Here, what have we ?
The entire mainstream right at 30 ?
And the worst second round poll for 6 months at 54.5 for Hollande ?
Come on!
THIS is really the result of a bunch of retards !

[You kip if you want to...]

But Sarko has no hope in the second round, right?

If the PS lose this, I swear to god...

[Antonio the Sixth]

BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ?

Yeah, I've seen the poll on your blog. What a bunch of retards.

The pollsters or the voters ?

Don't lose your mind: even in mid-March 2007, some polls gave Sarkozy at 50,5 (or maybe even 50). I remember I was worried each morning to see another bad poll. And Bayrou was really close to Royal and would have beaten Sarkozy. Imagine how sad I was

Here, what have we ?
The entire mainstream right at 30 ?
And the worst second round poll for 6 months at 54.5 for Hollande ?
Come on!
THIS is really the result of a bunch of retards !

The voters, of course. I would understand if Sarko had given some stirring speach, had come out with a revolutionary idea or had found some way to prove his abnegations as "captain of the ship through the storm", or if Hollande had made a major gaffe, appeared as weak or flip-flopping on some issue. But here, what new happened ? Another retarded gaffe about halal meat started by the government in a lame attempt to pander to the far-right. A Terra Nova report showing that the wealthy have benefitted from 80% of Sarko's policies. Sarkozy unable to come up with anything new. So why ? That's all I'm asking. I didn't feel this way when Hollande was losing ground on november-december, because there were valid reasons for that. But what I don't accept is this sudden, undeserved Sarko surge. I really don't understand where it comes from : Mélenchon is a tad higher, but not enough to explain it ; as for Bayrou and Le Pen, they are at their usual level. It just looks like 2% of Hollande voters woke up and said "guess what, I change my mind, I'm going with Sarko". It's just ridiculous.

And yes, I know Hollande won't lose this. But a Hollande win under 55% would be a symbolic defeat, as I explained you last time.

[Colbert]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

I concur.

me too (except if he lose in semifinals)

[Colbert]

May France be red.

no.


All lefts, include green, stay at the very low level of 40 % in 1995, 2002, 2007 and, probably, 2012

[Iannis]

BREAKING NEWS:

For the first time since DSK fell, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande (28.5 - 27) in an IFOP poll tonight.
But still 54.5 - 45.5 in the second round.
At last, some suspense ?

Yeah, I've seen the poll on your blog. What a bunch of retards.

The pollsters or the voters ?

Don't lose your mind: even in mid-March 2007, some polls gave Sarkozy at 50,5 (or maybe even 50). I remember I was worried each morning to see another bad poll. And Bayrou was really close to Royal and would have beaten Sarkozy. Imagine how sad I was

Here, what have we ?
The entire mainstream right at 30 ?
And the worst second round poll for 6 months at 54.5 for Hollande ?
Come on!
THIS is really the result of a bunch of retards !

The voters, of course. I would understand if Sarko had given some stirring speach, had come out with a revolutionary idea or had found some way to prove his abnegations as "captain of the ship through the storm", or if Hollande had made a major gaffe, appeared as weak or flip-flopping on some issue. But here, what new happened ? Another retarded gaffe about halal meat started by the government in a lame attempt to pander to the far-right. A Terra Nova report showing that the wealthy have benefitted from 80% of Sarko's policies. Sarkozy unable to come up with anything new. So why ? That's all I'm asking. I didn't feel this way when Hollande was losing ground on november-december, because there were valid reasons for that. But what I don't accept is this sudden, undeserved Sarko surge. I really don't understand where it comes from : Mélenchon is a tad higher, but not enough to explain it ; as for Bayrou and Le Pen, they are at their usual level. It just looks like 2% of Hollande voters woke up and said "guess what, I change my mind, I'm going with Sarko". It's just ridiculous.

And yes, I know Hollande won't lose this. But a Hollande win under 55% would be a symbolic defeat, as I explained you last time.

You do'nt consider declared abstensions and undecided. Sarkozy is very likely to have gathered many "sleeping" former Sarkozy voters who had declared to be not certain who to vote, and have been woken up by the beginning of Sarkozy's campaign

[Peter the Lefty]

New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please! 

[Antonio the Sixth]

New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please!

Either it was an outlier, or the level of uncertainty is raising dramatically. Having a 4 points difference in two polls published within a couple days is pretty rare.

@Iannis : Yes, but why now and not before ? There's nothing singificantly new from Sarko's side this week. I could understand the bounce with his candidacy declaration, but why now ?