France 2012: the official thread

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Well, yeah, considering it's OpinionWay and considering the previous poll, it's not bad news. But it proves the Sarko surge is real...

Where are IPSOS, BVA and Harris, damnit ?

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #46 - 19 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   

      

Hollande 28,55
Sarkozy 27,02
Le Pen 16,38
Bayrou 12,64
Mélenchon 9,76
Joly 2,49
(Villepin) 1,00
(Lepage) 0,39
Dupont-Aignan 0,80
Arthaud 0,48
Poutou 0,48   
Cheminade 0,01


Hollande 55,60
Sarkozy 44,40

[batmacumba]

No new poll yesterday ! WTF ?!?

With the current numbers, some other leftist would have to take votes from Hollande, besides Mélenchon, which seems pretty unprobable by now. Maybe M. Hulot shall get back from his vacations? (I bet no French can bear this joke anymore.)

Well, there are a few other problems to your posts :
- The deadline for candidacies was yesterday
- Hulot isn't really a "leftist" anyways, he probably would have taken centrist/independent votes, instead
- Running after pathetically losing your primary is rarely a good thing to do

Q.E.D.

[Insula Dei]

So, and I realize this is not very respectful, will recent events result in a Sarko-Le Pen boost?

[Old Europe]

So, and I realize this is not very respectful, will recent events result in a Sarko-Le Pen boost?

Yes.

Recent events have probably secured a second term for Sarkozy.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Guys, don't go too far too soon. Apparently, some UMPers are starting to spin the story for they own benefits (I keep getting surprised by how sickening these people can be) but it is doubtful whether it will have any impact - not to mention it might badly backfire.


Anyways, here are the effects of last week's Sarko surge. Not that big, after all.

[Tender Branson]

Big gains for Sarkozy in the BVA poll from March 21/22 compared with their March 2/3 poll:

29.5 Hollande (-3.5)
28.0 Sarkozy (+3.0)

54 Hollande (-5)
46 Sarkozy (+5)

Is BVA historically good ?

And a CSA poll has Sarkozy ahead by 30-28, but trailing also by 54-46.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

AFAIK, BVA usually favors the left.

Now I'm afraid.

[Tender Branson]

AFAIK, BVA usually favors the left.

Now I'm afraid.

If Sarkozy is at 46% right now and he wins the first round by about 3-5%, how likely is a polling bump to 48-49% ? Then it could be a pretty close election, if the right-wing voters see that he has a chance to win this thing and head to the polls.

[Tender Branson]

From what I've seen on Wikipedia, it seems that CSA had the best 2nd round poll in 2007, while it cannot be said which pollster was the best in the 1st round, because they all overestimated the "old" LePen.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Here are the numbers of all pollsters from the primary to early march (Hollande 2nd round results), made by Fabien.



OpinionWay and Harris seem to underestimate Hollande while BVA and CSA overestimate him (though the pattern isn't so clear).

[Sibboleth]

Guys, don't go too far too soon. Apparently, some UMPers are starting to spin the story for they own benefits (I keep getting surprised by how sickening these people can be) but it is doubtful whether it will have any impact - not to mention it might badly backfire.

And, of course, there are elements to it that don't reflect terribly well on the current state of things.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

I don't know. Today's IFOP 3-day rolling poll has him tied with Bayrou at 12...

[Leftbehind]

So what figure did BVA have for Mélenchon? Either way, I hope the direction of travel for him continues!

[Formerly Californian Tony]

So what figure did BVA have for Mélenchon? Either way, I hope the direction of travel for him continues!

14 I think.

Mélenchon can't win. All he can do is making Hollande's life more miserable and eventually make him lose and condemn France to 5 more years of Sarkozy.

[Leftbehind]

Well it may be true he can't win, but then neither can Le Pen and yet Sarko's desperately trying to court her vote; so hopefully Mélenchon can at least have that effect.

[Sibboleth]

I wouldn't mind the symbolism of a fellow traveler beating a Le Pen, even if I could never vote for such a candidate myself. Still seems a little unlikely though.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

I don't know. Today's IFOP 3-day rolling poll has him tied with Bayrou at 12...

He can be tied with Bayrou at this point, yes, but probably not Le Pen.

BTW, IFOP's crosstabs are showing a major Sarkozy recovery with 'ouvriers' from his old lows. Even his first round performance is getting healthier, clearly at the expense of Marion. It would be sweetly ironic if Sarkozy won on an electoral coalition which would have elected a leftie in the 1970s and if Hollande won (narrowly) on an electoral coalition which would have elected a rightie in the 1970s.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

I don't know. Today's IFOP 3-day rolling poll has him tied with Bayrou at 12...

He can be tied with Bayrou at this point, yes, but probably not Le Pen.

BTW, IFOP's crosstabs are showing a major Sarkozy recovery with 'ouvriers' from his old lows. Even his first round performance is getting healthier, clearly at the expense of Marion. It would be sweetly ironic if Sarkozy won on an electoral coalition which would have elected a leftie in the 1970s and if Hollande won (narrowly) on an electoral coalition which would have elected a rightie in the 1970s.

No scenario involving Sarko winning could be considered "ironic" to me. "Pathetic" fits much better.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Well it may be true he can't win, but then neither can Le Pen and yet Sarko's desperately trying to court her vote; so hopefully Mélenchon can at least have that effect.

...so that Hollande is forced to look like an extremist, loses votes to the centre and allows Sarko to win. Great idea.

[big bad fab]

CSA is usually a terrible poster, though they seem to have been getting better these days.

BVA's poll also has Melenchon in third, placing ahead of Marion. Which is... doubtful.

I don't know. Today's IFOP 3-day rolling poll has him tied with Bayrou at 12...

He can be tied with Bayrou at this point, yes, but probably not Le Pen.

BTW, IFOP's crosstabs are showing a major Sarkozy recovery with 'ouvriers' from his old lows. Even his first round performance is getting healthier, clearly at the expense of Marion. It would be sweetly ironic if Sarkozy won on an electoral coalition which would have elected a leftie in the 1970s and if Hollande won (narrowly) on an electoral coalition which would have elected a rightie in the 1970s.

Hash, I've just officially launched an SOS on my blog, towards your ability to analyze Mélenchon's rise, which I can't believe in but which seems to be real...
Look at the daily IFOP tonight: Mélenchon is stronger than ever among workers and employees... OMG, what is occurring ?
Is Mélenchon at last stealing votes from Marion Panzergirl ?

BTW, guys, even readable by anglophones, I've just updated the graphs of my blog on results by pollsters for the 5 big candidates.

Oh, and this BVA poll is really troubling: see the numbers on vote transfers for Bayrou and Le Pen: they are completely "new"...
I know, BVA isn't a good pollster usually, but, well, this is really weird. Don't know what to think for the moment.

[Beet]

What does GOTV look like in France? Do you guys get calls from party volunteers reminding you to vote? Is there absentee balloting?

[Tender Branson]

What does GOTV look like in France? Do you guys get calls from party volunteers reminding you to vote? Is there absentee balloting?

Probably.

Here in Austria, I always get stuff like pencils or pocket lighters or something like that including a written form as to why to vote for each party. Parties mostly do this with first time voters. In 2008 for example I got this from the SPÖ, ÖVP and the BZÖ - even though I ended up voting for the Greens.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Geez... Fab being perplexed is a pretty worrying sign...

What does GOTV look like in France? Do you guys get calls from party volunteers reminding you to vote? Is there absentee balloting?

No absentee balloting, only "vote par procuration" (ie you can sign a paper allowing someone else to vote in your name).

As for GOTV, no person I know has ever received a phone call. There must be some door-to-door certainly, but I've not seen it personally. The main activity of party militants is sticking posters and distributing tracts, AFAIK.