France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ?

I give up.

[Franzl]

53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ?

I give up.

I can feel your pain

[Tender Branson]

53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ?

I give up.

I can feel your pain

Remember when Sarkozy was trailing by 63-37 ? These were the good times ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ?

I give up.

I can feel your pain

Remember when Sarkozy was trailing by 63-37 ? These were the good times ...

Yeah, they were... I knew it wouldn't last... but damn, couldn't we settle on 57-43 ?


Anyways, let's have a look at the horror :





Sarko hasn't overtaken Hollande yet here. Maybe you should switch your weighting to 1/0.5 by next monday instead of in two weeks, Fab ?

[Hash]

If anybody seriously believed Hollande would/will win by anything over 8-10 points, they needed/need to get their head checked (and read my blog). Mitterrand didn't defeat a terrible candidate like Chirac by anymore than 54-46 in 1988, and Charles fu-king De Gaulle didn't win by anymore than 10 points in 1965.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If anybody seriously believed Hollande would/will win by anything over 8-10 points, they needed/need to get their head checked (and read my blog). Mitterrand didn't defeat a terrible candidate like Chirac by anymore than 54-46 in 1988, and Charles fu-king De Gaulle didn't win by anymore than 10 points in 1965.

I didn't believe it at any point of the campaign, until basically late february - early March. Then I saw polls remaining steady despite Sarko's candidacy and all his agitation... and I started dreaming. I was stunned by how late and sudden this "return to normality" has been. But yeah, for a couple weeks, I actually thought this could last.

[Peter the Lefty]

Damn, I'm getting really nervous now. 

[You kip if you want to...]

Damn, I'm getting really nervous now. 

I refuse to believe that the PS, or the European Left in general, could be so inept to let this one slip from their fingers. I just refuse to believe it.

[Franzl]

Damn, I'm getting really nervous now. 

I refuse to believe that the PS, or the European Left in general, could be so inept to let this one slip from their fingers. I just refuse to believe it.

I'll be LMAO if France proves you wrong.

[Beet]

Wow, Melenchon is surging. I've suspected for a while now that there's a lot of room for an anti-neoliberal alternative on the left. I wouldn't be surprised if he were taking votes from both Hollande and Le Pen.

[Insula Dei]

Well, if Hollande loses this, that's not a sign of his or the PS's ineptness. They haven't done anything spectacularly wrong*, nor have they been especially unlucky. What on earth it would prove, I'm not really sure.


*: At the very least they have done nothing that would warrant going from 63-37 to losing the election.

[rob in cal]

What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?

[big bad fab]

53-47 in CSA this morning: excruciating, Antonio, isn't it ?

I give up.

I can feel your pain

Remember when Sarkozy was trailing by 63-37 ? These were the good times ...

Yeah, they were... I knew it wouldn't last... but damn, couldn't we settle on 57-43 ?


Anyways, let's have a look at the horror :





Sarko hasn't overtaken Hollande yet here. Maybe you should switch your weighting to 1/0.5 by next monday instead of in two weeks, Fab ?

Are you masochistic ?!
I won't change my weighting: that would give too much importance to Sarkozy and Mélenchon and I prefer to make it fit to the official campaign (new posters, even more equal time).

"Don't worry", even without changing the weighting, Sarkozy will be ahead of Hollande.

Hash is right in reminding us that absolutely any candidate would have signed immediately for a 54-46 average... and I've said again and again that with such a crisis, such unemployment rates and ten years in power, you MUST lose.

But... there is the bad trend for Hollande... and the way he doesn't change anything to his campaign: being able to adapt a bit can be a good thing, sometimes

[Insula Dei]

What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?

Under the Quinquennat National Assembly elections are held a few months after the Presidential Election anyway, if that's what you're asking. So, normally speaking Hollande shouldn't worry about cohabitation. I have no idea whether we should expect that election to be competitive, but I suppose a leftwing win would be very, very likely after a Hollande victory.

[Hash]

What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?

The NA ends its constitutional term in June, so it isn't as if it can be dissolved early at this stage. The conventional wisdom is for a fairly straightforward left-wing victory if Hollande wins, perhaps not along the lines of 1981 but along the lines of 1988 or 1997. If Sarkozy does win, there is a larger chance that the UMP finds itself in a minority/losing situation, but cohabitation is an unpopular idea (and most politicians act as if it is a thing of the past since Jospin-Chirac changed the electoral calendar).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, if Hollande loses this, that's not a sign of his or the PS's ineptness. They haven't done anything spectacularly wrong*, nor have they been especially unlucky. What on earth it would prove, I'm not really sure.


*: At the very least they have done nothing that would warrant going from 63-37 to losing the election.

The highlighted part is the problem. They (the Hollande campaign) haven't done much, or at least not enough to get sufficient media coverage. His total inaudibility from his primary win to the Bourget speech (apart from unfortunate blunders reagarding the PS-greens policy agreement) cost him a lot of points from november to january. His Bourget speech, and then his "operation 75%" were enough to stop the bleeding for more than two months, but now he seems to have become inaudible again...

[Sam Spade]

If anybody seriously believed Hollande would/will win by anything over 8-10 points, they needed/need to get their head checked (and read my blog). Mitterrand didn't defeat a terrible candidate like Chirac by anymore than 54-46 in 1988, and Charles fu-king De Gaulle didn't win by anymore than 10 points in 1965.

This is quite correct.

[big bad fab]

What will be happening with the National Assembly if Hollande is elected President?  Can he dissolve it early, and would he want to if he only wins over Sarkozy by a small amount?  Has
cohabitation been discussed on the campaign trail?

The NA ends its constitutional term in June, so it isn't as if it can be dissolved early at this stage. The conventional wisdom is for a fairly straightforward left-wing victory if Hollande wins, perhaps not along the lines of 1981 but along the lines of 1988 or 1997. If Sarkozy does win, there is a larger chance that the UMP finds itself in a minority/losing situation, but cohabitation is an unpopular idea (and most politicians act as if it is a thing of the past since Jospin-Chirac changed the electoral calendar).

Elections are on 10th and 17th of June.

In 2002, the right won because people didn't want another cohabitation. This time, it's different, as memories are short-lived... So, I guess the left would won like in 1997 if Sarkozy is reelected. Unless there is an electoral agremment UMP-FN, which would create a war in the centre-right, but could prevent the UMP from losing seats in the South-East and the margins of the Great East.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hollande should be fine so long as he continues to avoid major fyck ups. In the end, and at the end, this is about the Poison Dwarf and not him.

[minionofmidas]

Hollande should be fine so long as he continues to avoid major fyck ups. In the end, and at the end, this is about the Poison Dwarf and not him.

If that were still true, they'd still be polling in the high 50s.

We are basically talking about Europe's dumbest right wing troll here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hollande should be fine so long as he continues to avoid major fyck ups. In the end, and at the end, this is about the Poison Dwarf and not him.

If that were still true, they'd still be polling in the high 50s.

We are basically talking about Europe's dumbest right wing troll here.

Since Berlusconi left, yes.

I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks so. I might be biased, but anyone having a quick look at his term can realize how much of a failure he was.

[minionofmidas]

Berlusconi was utterly delusional and an even worse crook than Sarko, but I never thought him dumb.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, enough with the silly talk. Just post the polls showing Hollande with a 0.3% lead in the second round or whatever.

[Tender Branson]

Can someone of the French posters please translate some of this:

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1818-1-study_file.pdf

It's a poll about sex practices among the voters or French political parties.

I only got that FN and Far Left voters have the most sex each month, the most sex partners and the most experience with anal sex.

But some of the other questions I didn't understand.