France 2012: the official thread

[JulioMadrid]

PSOE is really angry with Sarkozy. Everytime I watch the news or open "El Pais" there's a new commentary of a socialist politician demmanding Sarko to apologize for what he said (that with the left in France, the country would have been in the same situation that Spain or Greece).

One thing is true. The situation hasn't improved with Rajoy as President. Zapatero kept us below 400 points in the risk premium. Last Thursday it was at 410 IIRC. And workers have lost rights and can be fired more easily now, students like me are seeing the education go worse each year (thanks, Esperanza Aguirre), social security with PP isn't a priority... They're destroying the welfare state and the economy isn't improving (even if it was, I think it isn't worth of it if we don't have a reasonable education, rights, social security, etc)

[You kip if you want to...]

One thing is true. The situation hasn't improved with Rajoy as President. Zapatero kept us below 400 points in the risk premium. Last Thursday it was at 410 IIRC. And workers have lost rights and can be fired more easily now, students like me are seeing the education go worse each year (thanks, Esperanza Aguirre), social security with PP isn't a priority... They're destroying the welfare state and the economy isn't improving (even if it was, I think it isn't worth of it if we don't have a reasonable education, rights, social security, etc)

I understand.

[Peter the Lefty]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).

Lest we forget the UK in 2015.

Wtf?  Not unless Labour dumps Miliband in favor of someone better, and I can't even think of anyone at this point.  If they switch to his brother, it'll be of no difference whether or not they win, because he's a neoliberal warmongering Blairite who's hardly any different from Cameron.  Harriet Harperson definitely won't be able to win.  Neither will Sadiq Khan, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or any other non-Blairite. And I could almost even classify Ed Balls as Blairite at this point because of his endorsement of austerity.  Same with Ed Miliband.  They won't win until 2020, and if Scotland seceeds, maybe later.  It won't be until the next generation that a Labour victory will be both possible and meaningful at all.  And frankly, Chukah Umunna has been disappointing me tons lately by saying that he doesn't care about bankers getting huge bonuses.  Rachel Reeves has too by letting Ed Miliband and Ed Balls usurp her. 

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).

Lest we forget the UK in 2015.

Wtf?  Not unless Labour dumps Miliband in favor of someone better, and I can't even think of anyone at this point.  If they switch to his brother, it'll be of no difference whether or not they win, because he's a neoliberal warmongering Blairite who's hardly any different from Cameron.  Harriet Harperson definitely won't be able to win.  Neither will Sadiq Khan, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or any other non-Blairite. And I could almost even classify Ed Balls as Blairite at this point because of his endorsement of austerity.  Same with Ed Miliband.  They won't win until 2020, and if Scotland seceeds, maybe later.  It won't be until the next generation that a Labour victory will be both possible and meaningful at all.  And frankly, Chukah Umunna has been disappointing me tons lately by saying that he doesn't care about bankers getting huge bonuses.  Rachel Reeves has too by letting Ed Miliband and Ed Balls usurp her. 

Ok.

[Peter the Lefty]

Wtf?  Not unless Labour dumps Miliband in favor of someone better, and I can't even think of anyone at this point.  If they switch to his brother, it'll be of no difference whether or not they win, because he's a neoliberal warmongering Blairite who's hardly any different from Cameron.  Harriet Harperson definitely won't be able to win.  Neither will Sadiq Khan, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or any other non-Blairite. And I could almost even classify Ed Balls as Blairite at this point because of his endorsement of austerity.  Same with Ed Miliband.  They won't win until 2020, and if Scotland seceeds, maybe latHer.  It won't be until the next generation that a Labour victory will be both possible and meaningful at all.  And frankly, Chukah Umunna has been disappointing me tons lately by saying that he doesn't care about bankers getting huge bonuses.  Rachel Reeves has too by letting Ed Miliband and Ed Balls usurp her. 
[/quote]

Ok.
[/quote]
Sorry I ranted.  I have a bad habit of that lol...it's just...I'm really sickened by how right-wing the Labour Party has become.  And the next generation looked promising, but they've been brainwashed by their elders.  And honestly, I also have a really hard time seeing Miliband beat Cameron in the next election, not only because their policies are almost identical, but he's also a laughing stock. 

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   

      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73

[redcommander]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   

      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73

Will Sarkozy get a poll boost from winning the first round?

[State Comptroller Atkins]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   

      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73

Will Sarkozy get a poll boost from winning the first round?

He got a slight boost in 2007 IIRC.

[Californian Tony]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   

      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73

Will Sarkozy get a poll boost from winning the first round?

He got a slight boost in 2007 IIRC.

Post 1st-round boosts don't really depend on actual performances as much as they depend on the difference between those performances and expectations (a bit like, in the US, the result of a State Primary affects pollings in other States). If Sarko does significantly better than what polling suggests, he might get a boost, but otherwise probably not.

[Hashemite]

In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

[big bad fab]

In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Yep, it wasn't big in 2007.
This time, it'll be the same thing. Sarkozy may expect a 1st round result better than expectations. BUT, in the same time, the leftists will be afraid of a "comeback kid" effect and, as a consequence, the turnout inside the left will be better, erasing any real boost for Sarkozy.

C'est cuit, les gars...

[Californian Tony]

In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

[Hashemite]

In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

No, he led 53-47 in the final poll before the first round and led 56-44 in the first poll after the first round. Hence a 3 point boost for him.

[Californian Tony]

In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

No, he led 53-47 in the final poll before the first round and led 56-44 in the first poll after the first round. Hence a 3 point boost for him.

That was an exceptionally strong and short-lived boost in this case. Or, more likely, something to do with margins of error.

[Hashemite]

So, Mélenchon's past comments on Brittany and our language has thoroughly disgusted me, so at this stage it seems like I'll vote for Eva Joly or spoil my ballot.

[Californian Tony]

What did he say ?

[big bad fab]

In 1995 and 1988, the 'second round boost' was worth 2 and 3 points respectively - both times in favour of the left. In 2007, there was at most a 1 percentage point boost for Sarkozy.

Wait, you mean Mitterrand was only leading 51-49 in 1988 before the 1st round ?

No, he led 53-47 in the final poll before the first round and led 56-44 in the first poll after the first round. Hence a 3 point boost for him.

That was an exceptionally strong and short-lived boost in this case. Or, more likely, something to do with margins of error.

Well, Sarko enjoyed a similar boost just after Bayrou-Royal drama and his debate with her
But it was so short-lived that, during the last Friday and Saturday, 2% of people, so disgusted by Royal, thought it was too much for them to vote for Sarkozy...

[big bad fab]

So, Mélenchon's past comments on Brittany and our language has thoroughly disgusted me, so at this stage it seems like I'll vote for Eva Joly or spoil my ballot.

Why not trying Arthaud or Dupont-Aignan ?
After all, for one or two weeks, they've been the most coherent and the clearest of all, I think...

[You kip if you want to...]

New LH2 poll having it at 29.5 for Hollande and Sarko at 27 with Mélenchon falling 2% (and into 4th place behind Marine Le Pen) to 13% in the premier tour.

Hollande leads 55-45 in the deuxieme tour.

Mélenchonists getting scared of letting Sarko back in? We've seen the Sarkomentum splutter out a bit in the part week or so.

http://lci.tf1.fr/politique/elections-presidentielles/sondage-le-pen-en-hausse-hollande-victorieux-de-sarkozy-7129149.html

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2012/04/12/sarkozy-obama-we-will-win-video_n_1421269.html?ref=france

Sarko to Obama: "We'll will, you and me".

Oh god...

[RogueBeaver]

ABS sentiment is undoubtedly bubbling again.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, a Swedish girl has made a fan video for Melenchon called "Conquer me, Jean-Luc" because when she saw him at a campaign event ahead of 120.000 supporters she fell in love with his charisma ...

http://derstandard.at/1334132456965/Uebernimm-die-Macht-ueber-mich-Jean-Luc-Schwedische-Unterstuetzung-fuer-Melenchon

[Californian Tony]

Apparently, a Swedish girl has made a fan video for Melenchon called "Conquer me, Jean-Luc" because when she saw him at a campaign event ahead of 120.000 supporters she fell in love with his charisma ...

http://derstandard.at/1334132456965/Uebernimm-die-Macht-ueber-mich-Jean-Luc-Schwedische-Unterstuetzung-fuer-Melenchon

Having a hot swede fall in love with you is probably the wet dream of every left-winger. Though maybe Mélenchon would prefer cubans...

[Hashemite]

She needs to know that Melenchon probably hates everybody who doesn't lick his feet, so he'd probably slap her for being a "petty bourgeois" or something.

[Californian Tony]

Extremely late I know, but here are the usual graphs :