France 2012: the official thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2024, 09:39:10 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  France 2012: the official thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 69 70 71 72 73 [74] 75 76 77 78 79 ... 87
Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 358020 times)
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1825 on: April 18, 2012, 04:28:39 PM »

It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.

Not, it isn't. The likelihood of such scenario is neglectable.

*Negligible. Of course it is. Putting aside its likeliness, it's interesting to see on a psephological basis the potential support levels each could garner, and to compare them to historical trends. Most people interested in polling would also be interested in seeing such a run-off's effects. It's not as if there's a plethora of candidates to make this a difficult task, this election's been conveniently condensed down to five candidates, two of which - the likely contenders - having been (extensively) polled already.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1826 on: April 18, 2012, 06:44:04 PM »

I'm reading in the UK press that the Sarko campaign's got to that inevitable point of every losing campaign: senior allies (Fillon, et al.) are starting to point fingers.
Logged
Colbert
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 474
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1827 on: April 18, 2012, 07:03:27 PM »

polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?

I don't know where you get this idea from, but it isn't backed by any data. Sarko is gonna finish 10+ points higher than Le Pen unless something changes dramatically.






well...We'll see sunday (sunday after 20h for me, I don't want to know before via twitter or facebook, i wanna the excitation of the last minute before 20:00 )
Logged
Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,569
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1828 on: April 18, 2012, 07:21:16 PM »

It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.

Not, it isn't. The likelihood of such scenario is neglectable.

I'm surprised the silly ZOMG all candidates must have the exact amount of media attention rule doesn't force pollsters to poll all candidates in the 2nd round. I mean how awful to actually aknowledge that some candidates are less relevant.
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1829 on: April 18, 2012, 08:40:02 PM »


I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...
No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041
The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it. Just the mention of Europe will have neutrons firing off Socialism in his brain. This is pretty much like calling Obama a socialist.
The Economist does tilt to the right, but this article includes the following specific excerpts I was trying to point out:

Quote from: Restricted
You must be logged in to read this quote.
I think most Democrats wouldn't even contemplate some of the actions in the first paragraph (though, then again, some would). And then, in the second paragraph, we see Moscovici saying Sarkozy isn't left-wing enough, which proves my basic point.


Sarkozy is a Statist who favors the rich. Hollande is "Socialist"who favors state solutions that benefit the have-nots. Democrats cannot pass left-wing legislation because of a right-wing faction in their party(Blue dogs), I think we call agree that the dogs are right-wingers. Also depending on your ideology you might think that the (New) Democratic party itself is right-wing. There are a few right-wingers that are congratulating Obama behind the scenes for passing right-wing laws too. They can't do it openly because of self-censure(aka the RINO phenomenon).
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1830 on: April 18, 2012, 09:45:05 PM »

Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.
Logged
HST1948
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 577


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1831 on: April 18, 2012, 09:45:54 PM »

Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.

Imagine if François actually won 58-42 though... We can dream.

CSA does seem like it is an outlier, but CSA and some other polls that I have seen seem to have shown a slight trend back to Hollande over the last week or so.  Is this real, or just something that I am reading too far into. If it is real, what is its cause (could it be the video of the video of video conferance between Sarko and Obama?).  I've try to keep up with that polls and analysis by reading http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/, but alas by French is lacking, and translators can only do so much. I apologize for my lack of knowledge, but am interested in hearing what everyone has to say.  
Logged
Volrath50
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 814
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1832 on: April 18, 2012, 10:29:27 PM »

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. Sad
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,532
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1833 on: April 19, 2012, 01:53:18 AM »

Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.

You know what they say Sam, about how it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt?
That.
Logged
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,816
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1834 on: April 19, 2012, 02:32:33 AM »

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. Sad

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,532
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1835 on: April 19, 2012, 02:42:55 AM »

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. Sad

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

I've got news for you: it was the conservatives who threw our economy off a cliff between 2004-09.
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1836 on: April 19, 2012, 03:06:40 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2012, 04:41:25 AM by Comrade Sibboleth »

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. Sad

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.
No, they need to tell Germany and EU neoliberalists to [inks]  off. Considering that with France being red, it's time to turn on the neoliberalist owners and basically shutdown threaten to shutdown trade in Europe if Germany doesn't want to give France, Spain, Greece etc more favorable terms, considering they have been  those countries for past 10 years.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/2006German_exports.PNG
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1837 on: April 19, 2012, 03:43:51 AM »


The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it.
Not... exactly.
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1838 on: April 19, 2012, 03:45:40 AM »


The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it.
Not... exactly.

Ok, there is  a difference between the economist and crazy, but hyperbole was necessary.
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1839 on: April 19, 2012, 07:01:39 AM »


Then I'm really afraid to ask who is your favorite. I may not like your answer Wink
Logged
Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,569
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1840 on: April 19, 2012, 11:09:09 AM »

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. Sad

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

I've got news for you: it was the conservatives who threw our economy off a cliff between 2004-09.

Yes it was the Conservative party, but because they spent like drunk Socialists. You can hardly accuse austerity politics for the crisis in Greece. It was spending (and people not paying their taxes). Who did the spending is hardly relevant. This whole talking-point from the left that austerity politics are not the way to go, is bull.

Sweden had an economic crisis in the early 90's because both Socialist and Right-wing goverments spent and lend way too much money. Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today.   

(Not that Sarkozy would pursue a responsible Economic policy, and Hollande's talk of overturning European consensus is quite obviously just pondering to the left-wing base, so it won't really matter how this election goes.)
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1841 on: April 19, 2012, 11:29:48 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2012, 11:55:41 AM by Robot Rominee »

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed. Sad

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

Because the UMP aren't at all risky and have kept France in the clear...

And just look at the polls for the 2nd round, all of them so far this week have had Hollande at or above 55%. Interesting.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1842 on: April 19, 2012, 12:32:52 PM »

Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.

You know what they say Sam, about how it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt?
That.

I think that every time you post.
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1843 on: April 19, 2012, 12:39:21 PM »

I stand by my position that either Hollande is lying about his campaign promises and he'll in fact cut deeper than Sarkozy, or France will default under his rule.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,532
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1844 on: April 19, 2012, 12:39:30 PM »


I assure you, the feeling is mutual.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1845 on: April 19, 2012, 12:47:32 PM »

I wonder how DSK'd be doing, sans the rape thing.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1846 on: April 19, 2012, 12:48:38 PM »

He would have been suddenly (hilariously?) destroyed by the whole procuring thing.
Logged
Volrath50
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 814
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1847 on: April 19, 2012, 01:04:45 PM »

Yeah, I wish the allegations against DSK hadn't surfaced until he was the nominee, so he could epicly self destruct and not even make the second ballot.
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1848 on: April 19, 2012, 01:10:17 PM »

Same here. Though on the flip side DSK might have been the one to push ahead with serious structural reforms. Schroder, not Kohl, did the heavy entitlement lifting in Germany. Jospin privatized more than any of his rightist predecessors ever did. Hollande isn't that sort, not by a mile.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,851


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1849 on: April 19, 2012, 01:36:18 PM »

Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 69 70 71 72 73 [74] 75 76 77 78 79 ... 87  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 11 queries.