France 2012: the official thread

[Lief]

Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.

[Swedish Cheese]

Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.

As much as I hate the Euro, the Euro itself has very little to do with wether a country's economy had a crisis or not. Some countries with the Euro, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg managed to do just fine, and some countries without it had it's economy fail misrable, such as Iceland. So no, not being part of the Euro is not what saved Sweden, although not having to bail out five, six other countries does help.

What is true though, is that being part of the Euro is a major block for Greece's and Spain's financial recovery. If they had their own currency, they could simply devalue it, which would make it cheaper for foreigner's to trade and tourism with the countries. If it's cheaper trade increases (as does tourism) and the economy slowly starts rolling again. Unfortunatley, since they thought it good policy to surrender their own currency they can't do that. So while the Euro didn't cause the problem it is making the problem worse.       

[Landslide Lyndon]

Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.

As much as I hate the Euro, the Euro itself has very little to do with wether a country's economy had a crisis or not.      

You're wrong. If we had our currency then we could have gone through this crisis much less painfully by devaluing it, just like Poland does.
Also we could've used inflation to lighten the private debt, which crushes our middle class families, and spur growth.

Unfortunately we are wearing a straitjacket and the only thing that troika does is ask from us to tighten it even more.

[Roma Caput Mundi]

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed.

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

I've got news for you: it was the conservatives who threw our economy off a cliff between 2004-09.

Yes it was the Conservative party, but because they spent like drunk Socialists. You can hardly accuse austerity politics for the crisis in Greece. It was spending (and people not paying their taxes). Who did the spending is hardly relevant. This whole talking-point from the left that austerity politics are not the way to go, is bull.

Sweden had an economic crisis in the early 90's because both Socialist and Right-wing goverments spent and lend way too much money. Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today.   

(Not that Sarkozy would pursue a responsible Economic policy, and Hollande's talk of overturning European consensus is quite obviously just pondering to the left-wing base, so it won't really matter how this election goes.)

The problem is HOW the money is spent...productive investment can make a big deficit easily abbordable.

[Sibboleth]

You people are being boring.

[Insula Dei]

The quality of this thread has rapidly decreased, I see.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Can this argument please be wiped off the face of the forum?

[Swedish Cheese]

Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.

As much as I hate the Euro, the Euro itself has very little to do with wether a country's economy had a crisis or not.      

You're wrong. If we had our currency then we could have gone through this crisis much less painfully by devaluing it, just like Poland does.

If you bothered to read my entire post you'd see that's exactly what I said.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today. 

The reason Sweden is not part of the crisis is because they're not part of the Eurozone.

As much as I hate the Euro, the Euro itself has very little to do with wether a country's economy had a crisis or not.      

You're wrong. If we had our currency then we could have gone through this crisis much less painfully by devaluing it, just like Poland does.

If you bothered to read my entire post you'd see that's exactly what I said.

But the fact is that Euro caused the problem, not just aggravated it. There are countries with bigger debt than Greece that have no problem to borrow in low rates just because they still have their own currency and their own independent monetary policy.

I don't disagree that a big dose of fiscal austerity is needed in our case only (in Spain and Italy it's a disastrous recipe) but without having the flexibility of a national currency it might prove to be a costly and failed experiment.

[Sibboleth]

This discussion ends here. If you want to discuss such matters (and they aren't exactly unimportant, granted) please do so elsewhere. Further posts will be deleted, etc.

[Hashemite]

I might as well lock this thread until Sunday. The last two days are stupid days, and this thread is a sh**tfes and has turned from bad to horrible.

[Californian Tony]

Well, today we should get back to business with the publication of Fab's final tracker.

[Vasall des Midas]

Yeah, I wish the allegations against DSK hadn't surfaced until he was the nominee, so he could epicly self destruct and not even make the second ballot.

Mélenchon President? I'll take it!

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS !
2012 Big Bad Tracker #51 - 20 April 2012   

The last one before the first round !!!   

      

Hollande 27,79
Sarkozy 26,98
Le Pen 15,69
Bayrou 10,32
Mélenchon 13,79
Joly 2,38   
Dupont-Aignan 1,42   
Arthaud 0,53
Poutou 1,05
Cheminade 0,06

Hollande 55,16
Sarkozy 44,84

Hollande just ahead of Sarkozy !
Dupont-Aignan surge and Poutoumentum !
Hollande over 55 in the second round !

I'll post this Saturday on my blog an anlysis of spreads between pollsters, of current trends  and, hence, what I foresee besides this tracker.

Antonio, you are free to post your graphs here

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/18/francois-hollande-wont-change-europe

LOL at this.

Then came the Toulouse jihadist shootings. Faced with a terrorist crisis, Sarkozy was able to exploit the power of the presidency to bring order back to France. His ratings overtook those of Hollande, who also faced a challenge from Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left. Suddenly Sarkozy's re-election took on an air almost of inevitability.

[Californian Tony]

BREAKING NEWS !
2012 Big Bad Tracker #51 - 20 April 2012   

The last one before the first round !!!   

      

Hollande 27,79
Sarkozy 26,98
Le Pen 15,69
Bayrou 10,32
Mélenchon 13,79
Joly 2,38   
Dupont-Aignan 1,42   
Arthaud 0,53
Poutou 1,05
Cheminade 0,06

Hollande 55,16
Sarkozy 44,84

Hollande just ahead of Sarkozy !
Dupont-Aignan surge and Poutoumentum !
Hollande over 55 in the second round !

I'll post this Saturday on my blog an anlysis of spreads between pollsters, of current trends  and, hence, what I foresee besides this tracker.

Antonio, you are free to post your graphs here

Thank you ! Graphs are coming soon.

[Californian Tony]

Technical note: since you updated the results for 2nd round as well, what will we do with the regular tracker of April 23 ? Will you give polls published from monday to today a lower weighting than those published right after the 1st round ? Or will you just update the 2nd round tracker while keeping the 100% weighting for these polls ?

[big bad fab]

I'll only take into account the polls of this last week. So, it will be another update of the second round tracker (but I'm sure we'll have polls for the second round on Sunday evening and on Monday morning - "le premier sondage du second tour !").

[Californian Tony]

I'll only take into account the polls of this last week. So, it will be another update of the second round tracker (but I'm sure we'll have polls for the second round on Sunday evening and on Monday morning - "le premier sondage du second tour !").

So it won't be a real update, just a technical correction. If it's fine for you, I will include only the april 23 version in my graph, as I don't see the need for having two numbers for the same set of polls.

[Californian Tony]

Here we go !

[Lief]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/18/francois-hollande-wont-change-europe

LOL at this.

Then came the Toulouse jihadist shootings. Faced with a terrorist crisis, Sarkozy was able to exploit the power of the presidency to bring order back to France. His ratings overtook those of Hollande, who also faced a challenge from Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left. Suddenly Sarkozy's re-election took on an air almost of inevitability.

Isn't the Guardian supposed to be left-wing??

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/apr/18/francois-hollande-wont-change-europe

LOL at this.

Then came the Toulouse jihadist shootings. Faced with a terrorist crisis, Sarkozy was able to exploit the power of the presidency to bring order back to France. His ratings overtook those of Hollande, who also faced a challenge from Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left. Suddenly Sarkozy's re-election took on an air almost of inevitability.

Isn't the Guardian supposed to be left-wing??

Yeah, it's an opinion piece though.

[Hashemite]

So... I'm off to vote. Still hesitating a bit.

[Vasall des Midas]

It's not as if it really matters, does it?

[big bad fab]

So... I'm off to vote. Still hesitating a bit.

Sarko président !

Why not Dupont-Aignan ? It would be cool to see him having a big consituency in Canada and among French people abroad
After much analysis, we could infer some big Gaullist revival overseas !