Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 20, 2014, 05:28:11 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  France 2012: the official thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 71 72 73 74 75 [76] 77 78 79 80 81 ... 87 Print
Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 119485 times)
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13946
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1875 on: April 21, 2012, 08:24:22 am »
Ignore

Here we go !



How lucky man you are !
This tracker was designed for you... Just before the end he prevails...

Now, imagine this with Aubry Wink
Maybe Mélenchon wouldn't have surged so much, but Bayrou would have been higher.
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Robb the Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30490
France


View Profile
« Reply #1876 on: April 21, 2012, 08:46:35 am »
Ignore

So... I'm off to vote. Still hesitating a bit.

Go with Joly. She has nice views and is a good person.


Here we go !



How lucky man you are !
This tracker was designed for you... Just before the end he prevails...

Now, imagine this with Aubry Wink
Maybe Mélenchon wouldn't have surged so much, but Bayrou would have been higher.

Meh, I don't know... I think Aubry would have been lower than Hollande in the immediate post-primary season, but probably higher than him in the december-january period. Then, who knows ? Of course she was a more vulnerable to Sarko's attacks than Hollande, but she also had some advantages. Anyways, it doesn't matter anymore. Wink
Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
PASOK Leader Hashemite
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31359
South Africa



View Profile WWW
« Reply #1877 on: April 21, 2012, 09:00:13 am »

I voted for Eva Joly, and I'm happy with that. My mom for Sarko, my dad for Marion.

As for NDA, I'd quicker eat my hat than vote for that stupid asshat.
Logged

only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #1878 on: April 21, 2012, 09:05:18 am »
Ignore

my dad for Marion.
Seriously? ouch'n.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Minstrel Show Taylor Swift
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32232
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #1879 on: April 21, 2012, 09:09:09 am »
Ignore

Yeah, Hash's parents sound pretty terrifying.

When do we get results? Tonight?
Logged

Andrea
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 477
Italy
View Profile
« Reply #1880 on: April 21, 2012, 09:16:02 am »
Ignore

Voters in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, Guyane, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin have started to vote for French presidency.
Polynésie will start today at 8 PM (Paris time) and Nouvelle Caledonie at 11pm

Closing time in Outre-Mèr according to French mainland time zone:
Saint-Pierre et Miquelon: today 22:30
Guyane: today at 23:30
Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin: tonight at 0:30
Polynésie will finish tomorrow morning at 6:30
Nouvelle Caledonie: 9:30

Reunion and Mayotte will vote tomorrow: 6 AM to 4:30PM in La Reunion and 7 AM to 7:30 PM in Mayotee.

70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 09:29:57 am by Andrea »Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #1881 on: April 21, 2012, 09:26:10 am »
Ignore

70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes).
That is seriously bizarre.

And is also why (as claimed over in another thread) results and exit polls start leaking before 8.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Robb the Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30490
France


View Profile
« Reply #1882 on: April 21, 2012, 09:55:55 am »
Ignore

70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes).
That is seriously bizarre.

And is also why (as claimed over in another thread) results and exit polls start leaking before 8.

Yeah, I don't understand why they can't harmonize closing times in metropolitan France. It's not like we're the USA. Tongue


As for NDA, I'd quicker eat my hat than vote for that stupid asshat.

Ironically I quite liked him a couple years ago before I realized he was a Villiers bis / Le Pen lite. Shame on me for seriously buying that neogaullist bullsh*t.
Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Andrea
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 477
Italy
View Profile
« Reply #1883 on: April 21, 2012, 10:11:16 am »
Ignore

what is the logic behind big cities voting longer? I mean, they are bigger, but they should have more polling stations anyway. Because city people go out for a weekend at la campagne to be back in town for dinner?
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13946
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1884 on: April 21, 2012, 10:24:13 am »
Ignore

Guys, I've posted on my blog the last graphs by pollster. May be of some interest if you want to try to predict all this stuff.

If you just follow the trends of my Big Bad Tracker, this should be something like this:
Hollande 27.8 -> 28
Sarkozy 27-> 26.5
Le Pen 15.7 -> 16
Mélenchon 13.8 -> 13.5
Bayrou 10.3 -> 10.5
Joly 2.4 -> 2.5
Dupont-Aignan 1.4 -> 1.5
Poutou 1.1 -> 1
Arthaud 0.5 -> 0.5
Cheminade 0.1 -> 0


Now, I've tried to add effects from poll and media momentum, mobilization, electoral sociology and its consequences on turnout, tactical vote in a "useful" way. And it gives me my personal prediction:
Sarkozy 27.6
Hollande 26.7
Le Pen 14.8
Mélenchon 13.8
Bayrou 9.6
Dupont-Aignan 2.5
Poutou 2.1
Joly 1.9
Arthaud 0.8
Cheminade 0.2


Of course, I'll be completely wrong, as usual when it's about French elections Tongue
« Last Edit: April 21, 2012, 10:25:53 am by big bad fab »Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Robb the Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30490
France


View Profile
« Reply #1885 on: April 21, 2012, 10:33:02 am »
Ignore

So you think Sarko will pull ahead ? Wow, it seems for once we're actually both optimistic. Tongue
Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
PASOK Leader Hashemite
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31359
South Africa



View Profile WWW
« Reply #1886 on: April 21, 2012, 10:35:02 am »

I think Cheminade will win easily, given that the aliens will rig the polls.
Logged

© tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35425
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #1887 on: April 21, 2012, 11:30:21 am »
Ignore

guess I would be voting New Anticapitalist after Melenchon topped out beyond hope.
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #1888 on: April 21, 2012, 11:31:42 am »
Ignore

I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13946
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1889 on: April 21, 2012, 12:01:12 pm »
Ignore

I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.

It was long ago. A way to try to unite the "left of the left"... with the success you know...
Mélenchon will be able to do it, in the polls, but not among the parties.
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #1890 on: April 21, 2012, 12:03:21 pm »
Ignore

I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.

It was long ago. A way to try to unite the "left of the left"... with the success you know...
Mélenchon will be able to do it, in the polls, but not among the parties.
Three years is not a long time in politics. Not nearly as long as a week. Wink

Besides, both that and the PG happened at a time when there were no major elections up in France and my attention had wavered elsewhere.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
PASOK Leader Hashemite
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31359
South Africa



View Profile WWW
« Reply #1891 on: April 21, 2012, 02:49:18 pm »

The NPA was supposed to be a temporary name, but the members opted to keep it when they could have adopted a final name. It is a terrible tinpot name, but it fits with the clientele.

There was a brief period before Melenchon and the FG became a serious credible actor, between late 2008 and early 2009, where the NPA was doing really well in the polls (8-9% iirc) and Besancenot was riding really high. Then he took a huge dumping, which was partly of his own making.
Logged

big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13946
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1892 on: April 21, 2012, 04:33:53 pm »
Ignore

No other predictions ?
Tender ?
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
PASOK Leader Hashemite
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31359
South Africa



View Profile WWW
« Reply #1893 on: April 21, 2012, 04:34:26 pm »

As per usual, a results thread: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152487.0

I'll temporarily lock this thread tomorrow.
Logged

Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6499
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #1894 on: April 21, 2012, 05:33:35 pm »
Ignore

My French teacher will vote for Melenchon (Hollande in the 2nd round).
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8140
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1895 on: April 21, 2012, 08:14:42 pm »
Ignore

The Daily Hate Mail continues to be a parody of itself.
Logged
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56349
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1896 on: April 21, 2012, 08:40:44 pm »
Ignore

Insert reference to 'Hurrah for the Blackshirts!' here.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5129
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1897 on: April 21, 2012, 09:13:44 pm »
Ignore

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.
Logged

I would even characterize most Republican politicians as animals, and not human.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51645


View Profile
« Reply #1898 on: April 21, 2012, 10:45:45 pm »
Ignore

Just realized BBC World will have live result coverage (whenever I get to watch, that is). Much better than settling for an Internet stream. Smiley
Logged

True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27949
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1899 on: April 21, 2012, 11:47:06 pm »
Ignore

Well let's check the record; the reunified Italy actually won most of its wars (if only because they tended to pick on weak opponents or choose the winning side).

Won:

Austro-Prussian War (on a technicality)
Occupation of the Papal States
Occupation of Eritrea
Boxer Rebellion
Italo-Ottoman War
World War I
Second Italo-Ethiopian War
Occupation of Albania

Lost:

First Italo-Ethiopian War
World War II

LOL! Yeah, come tell me how many wars Italians won. I am very impressed.


For a Greek to chide another country for being militarily inept is amusing.  Have you been to Trebizond, Smyrna, or Constantinople lately?
Logged

I wonder why Van Heusen never bothered to make women's clothing?
Pages: 1 ... 71 72 73 74 75 [76] 77 78 79 80 81 ... 87 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines