France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

Here we go !

How lucky man you are !
This tracker was designed for you... Just before the end he prevails...

Now, imagine this with Aubry
Maybe Mélenchon wouldn't have surged so much, but Bayrou would have been higher.

[Californian Tony]

So... I'm off to vote. Still hesitating a bit.

Go with Joly. She has nice views and is a good person.

Here we go !

How lucky man you are !
This tracker was designed for you... Just before the end he prevails...

Now, imagine this with Aubry
Maybe Mélenchon wouldn't have surged so much, but Bayrou would have been higher.

Meh, I don't know... I think Aubry would have been lower than Hollande in the immediate post-primary season, but probably higher than him in the december-january period. Then, who knows ? Of course she was a more vulnerable to Sarko's attacks than Hollande, but she also had some advantages. Anyways, it doesn't matter anymore.

[Hashemite]

I voted for Eva Joly, and I'm happy with that. My mom for Sarko, my dad for Marion.

As for NDA, I'd quicker eat my hat than vote for that stupid asshat.

[Vasall des Midas]

my dad for Marion.

Seriously? ouch'n.

[Lief]

Yeah, Hash's parents sound pretty terrifying.

When do we get results? Tonight?

[Andrea]

Voters in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, Guyane, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin have started to vote for French presidency.
Polynésie will start today at 8 PM (Paris time) and Nouvelle Caledonie at 11pm

Closing time in Outre-Mèr according to French mainland time zone:
Saint-Pierre et Miquelon: today 22:30
Guyane: today at 23:30
Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin: tonight at 0:30
Polynésie will finish tomorrow morning at 6:30
Nouvelle Caledonie: 9:30

Reunion and Mayotte will vote tomorrow: 6 AM to 4:30PM in La Reunion and 7 AM to 7:30 PM in Mayotee.

70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes.

[Vasall des Midas]

70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes).

That is seriously bizarre.

And is also why (as claimed over in another thread) results and exit polls start leaking before 8.

[Californian Tony]

70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes).

That is seriously bizarre.

And is also why (as claimed over in another thread) results and exit polls start leaking before 8.

Yeah, I don't understand why they can't harmonize closing times in metropolitan France. It's not like we're the USA.

As for NDA, I'd quicker eat my hat than vote for that stupid asshat.

Ironically I quite liked him a couple years ago before I realized he was a Villiers bis / Le Pen lite. Shame on me for seriously buying that neogaullist bullsh*t.

[Andrea]

what is the logic behind big cities voting longer? I mean, they are bigger, but they should have more polling stations anyway. Because city people go out for a weekend at la campagne to be back in town for dinner?

[big bad fab]

Guys, I've posted on my blog the last graphs by pollster. May be of some interest if you want to try to predict all this stuff.

If you just follow the trends of my Big Bad Tracker, this should be something like this:
Hollande 27.8 -> 28
Sarkozy 27-> 26.5
Le Pen 15.7 -> 16
Mélenchon 13.8 -> 13.5
Bayrou 10.3 -> 10.5
Joly 2.4 -> 2.5
Dupont-Aignan 1.4 -> 1.5
Poutou 1.1 -> 1
Arthaud 0.5 -> 0.5
Cheminade 0.1 -> 0

Now, I've tried to add effects from poll and media momentum, mobilization, electoral sociology and its consequences on turnout, tactical vote in a "useful" way. And it gives me my personal prediction:
Sarkozy 27.6
Hollande 26.7
Le Pen 14.8
Mélenchon 13.8
Bayrou 9.6
Dupont-Aignan 2.5
Poutou 2.1
Joly 1.9
Arthaud 0.8
Cheminade 0.2

Of course, I'll be completely wrong, as usual when it's about French elections

[Californian Tony]

So you think Sarko will pull ahead ? Wow, it seems for once we're actually both optimistic.

[Hashemite]

I think Cheminade will win easily, given that the aliens will rig the polls.

[© Tweed the Younger]

guess I would be voting New Anticapitalist after Melenchon topped out beyond hope.

[Vasall des Midas]

I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.

[big bad fab]

I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.

It was long ago. A way to try to unite the "left of the left"... with the success you know...
Mélenchon will be able to do it, in the polls, but not among the parties.

[Vasall des Midas]

I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.

It was long ago. A way to try to unite the "left of the left"... with the success you know...
Mélenchon will be able to do it, in the polls, but not among the parties.

Three years is not a long time in politics. Not nearly as long as a week.

Besides, both that and the PG happened at a time when there were no major elections up in France and my attention had wavered elsewhere.

[Hashemite]

The NPA was supposed to be a temporary name, but the members opted to keep it when they could have adopted a final name. It is a terrible tinpot name, but it fits with the clientele.

There was a brief period before Melenchon and the FG became a serious credible actor, between late 2008 and early 2009, where the NPA was doing really well in the polls (8-9% iirc) and Besancenot was riding really high. Then he took a huge dumping, which was partly of his own making.

[big bad fab]

No other predictions ?
Tender ?

[Hashemite]

As per usual, a results thread: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152487.0

I'll temporarily lock this thread tomorrow.

[JulioMadrid]

My French teacher will vote for Melenchon (Hollande in the 2nd round).

[State Comptroller Atkins]

The Daily Hate Mail continues to be a parody of itself.

[Sibboleth]

Insert reference to 'Hurrah for the Blackshirts!' here.

[Vosem]

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

[Keystone Phil]

Just realized BBC World will have live result coverage (whenever I get to watch, that is). Much better than settling for an Internet stream.

[True Federalist]

Well let's check the record; the reunified Italy actually won most of its wars (if only because they tended to pick on weak opponents or choose the winning side).

Won:

Austro-Prussian War (on a technicality)
Occupation of the Papal States
Occupation of Eritrea
Boxer Rebellion
Italo-Ottoman War
World War I
Second Italo-Ethiopian War
Occupation of Albania

Lost:

First Italo-Ethiopian War
World War II

LOL! Yeah, come tell me how many wars Italians won. I am very impressed.

For a Greek to chide another country for being militarily inept is amusing.  Have you been to Trebizond, Smyrna, or Constantinople lately?