France 2012: the official thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

Where are our Frenchies?

[You kip if you want to...]

A 3 hour debate? Really!? It's nearly midnight there.

[Andrea]

It's better to have 2 shorter debates than this never ending thing IMO.

[Californian Tony]

Where are our Frenchies?

I was in front of my TV, duh.


Anyways, if you're interested in my feelings on this debate, I'd say Hollande has won it. Not by a wide margin, but considering how the conventional wisdom was that Sarko was THE champion in debates, I think it's positive news for Hollande overall. Of course my opinion is biased, but all along Sarkozy seemed extremely aggressive (well, that's understandable since he is losing) and a bit desperate in trying to score all political points. While Hollande wasn't statospheric, he kept some more dignity and appeared both more serene and, at some moment "stronger" (he didn't backtrack when Sarkozy attacked, and mostly stayed firm on his positions). I hope I'm not too biased, but I think Holland was definitely better (though both had good and bad moments). Sarko eventually didn't hesitate to bring up DSK and I think this is going to hurt him in the end. People already know everything about DSK and reminding them of that should appear for what it is : petty politicking. His insinuating that Hollande knew everything about his practice was a particularly low attack and I don't see what kind of voter would be seduced by that. It was also a bit funny to see Sarko singling out voters (addressing first of all Le Pen voters, then Bayrou voters, then abstentionists, each time with a different rhetoric), while Hollande claimed to talk to French people in general (which is a bit hypocritical of course but nonetheless a more dignified political positioning). Sarkozy was, predictably, reminded of his catastrophic record and I think that, in the end, this will matter more than his constant fearmongering of a Hollande victory turning France into Greece and all this bullsh*t. So here is my take.

I would like to know what Fabien thought about it, anyways.

[big bad fab]

I'm a bit lazy to explain it in English (go to my blog ).
But it was a paradoxical debate, Hollande being even more aggressive than Sarkozy (yes, Antonio) but Sarkozy being unable not to speak about his five years and sometimes being silent...
Paradoxical also because Sarko wasn't so good on immigration, has probably gained more ground in the center than in the far-right and because Hollande didn't hesitate to drop Greens and even leftists, being able to please some Le Pen voters.

So, yes, Hollande has probably won because he hasn't lost and because Sarko wasn't, deeply inside, self-confident. And, eventually, all is back to the beginning: views of Sarko's record and Hollande pushing himself as "normal". All this campaign and this debate for nothing....

I doubt the debate will have an effect on polls, overall.
Let's expect 53-47 (but my prediction will probably be different, based on my last tracker, on Friday night).

[Lief]

I love that big clock at the bottom of the set keeping track of each candidate's total time. French elections are so cool.

[Tender Branson]

I'm going to predict a 52.3-47.7 Hollande win.

[Andrea]

Cheminade will vote Hollande

[Hashemite]

I watched most of the debate (except the part on fiscal stuff and budgets I had to tend to an urgent matter), and I found both pretty awful, perhaps with Poison Dwarf being the least terrible. He'd make a good case and make me like him, then he'd remind me why I hated him. Flanby would make a good case and I'd feel happy in going to vote for him, then he reminded me why I didn't like him.

Both clearly hated each other, and both went to ridiculous lows and grasped at straws to make their hatred clear. Both were aggressive, but I found Flanby to be way more aggressive. And while both acted like Fabius le roquet in that epic debate, Flanby's knack for interrupting Sarko each time Sarko said some moronic thing was annoying and, imo, reflected poorly on him. On the issues - if such things actually matter - I think they each won on what they're strongest though Sarko's diatribe on immigration/foreigners voting was weak (perhaps because what he said was disgusting) and Flanby's position on nuclear energy was weak.

Overall, both were awful as the plague. In conclusion, a plague on both their houses. I don't know what's keeping me from spoiling my ballot if it seems Hollande will win easily.

[Insula Dei]

Didn't watch the debate, but the press over here generally seems to think Hollande won rather comfortably on points, even if it wasn't some knock-out victory. 

[Tender Branson]

First poll that includes interviews before and after the debate by LH2:

53-47 Hollande (sample = 1565)

Among debate watchers only (sample = 498):

52-48 Hollande

Sarkozy favorable rating BEFORE the debate: 43-54
Sarkozy favorable rating AFTER the debate: 47-52

Hollande favorable rating BEFORE the debate: 47-50
Hollande favorable rating AFTER the debate: 56-43

Sarkozy is seen as more credible, more competent and dynamic than Hollande, while Hollande is seen as more likeable, serious, sincere and whatever it means - more "Proche de vos préoccupations" and more "Rassurant" and "Proche de vos convictions politiques" than Sarkozy.

Sarkozy was seen more "Presidential" in the debate by a 50-43 margin.

Hollande wins the "who was more convincing thing" in the debate by a 45-41 margin.

The poll also says that the 498 debate watchers already were 52-48 for Hollande BEFORE the debate, so no changes there.

http://www.lh2.fr/_upload/ressources/sondages/politique_nationale/lh2yahooimpactdebatteleviseentrdeuxtours3mai2012.pdf

Plz French posters, if I made any mistake with my limited French translation skills, post what was wrong ...

[The Mikado]

Just a favor I'd like to ask: does anyone have a link to official (i. e. citation-worthy) French election returns?  Something like this site, but for France?

I could probably find it on my own, but I figure this is probably the sort of thing that Hashemite has bookmarked and it'd probably be easier this way.

[DL]

Sarkozy is seen as more credible, more competent and dynamic than Hollande, while Hollande is seen as more likeable, serious, sincere and whatever it means - more "Proche de vos préoccupations" and more "Rassurant" and "Proche de vos convictions politiques" than Sarkozy.

"Proche de vos préoccupations" = "cares about/identifies with your concerns"
"Proche de vos convictions politiques" - "closest to your political philosophy"
"Rassurant" - reassuring

[Andrea]

Bayrou said he won't give an official advice to MoDem voters but he will personally vote for Hollande

[Californian Tony]

Bayrou said he won't give an official advice to MoDem voters but he will personally vote for Hollande

Wow, I honestly didn't expect so much. This is a pretty courageous decision for him, considering that this definitely cuts him from his former centrist "friends", hampering any potential political future. It isn't a key endorsement for Hollande, but it's certainly a good thing to take.

[Tender Branson]

Sarkozy climbing again !

New OpinionWay survey:

52.5 to 47.5 for Hollande

Hollande down by 1.5 and Sarkozy of course up by 1.5 in the past week.

http://www.ledauphine.com/politique/2012/05/03/hollande-en-tete-(52-5-)-face-a-sarkozy-(47-5-)-malgre-une-baisse

[Californian Tony]

If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

[Tender Branson]

Enter, before Keystone Phil comes in to say Sarkozy will win re-election:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/barometre-de-la-presidentielle-2012-V9.pdf

[Tender Branson]

If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

[Californian Tony]

If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

[Jackson]

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

That sentence should probably be written:

If someone is able to explain to me how(Sarkozy could win re-election), I'd consider him the greatest psephologist of all time.

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Explain.

[Tender Branson]

If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

OK, I read the sentence too fast. But now I understand what you wanna say.

Why is Sarkozy closing the gap ?

Sarkozy collecting most of the right- and center-voters of which there are a lot according to the first round.

Even if 15% of Melenchon's voters vote for Sarkozy, Hollande could be in trouble if many LePen voters also hold their noses and vote for Sarkozy.

But, the good thing is that Bayrou's decision today might have saved Hollande from a really close race.

[Simfan34]

This is looking surprisingly good.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

So I can have some bragging rights too if that still-unlikely scenario occurs.