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| | |-+  France 2012: the official thread
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 165395 times)
DL
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« Reply #2125 on: May 05, 2012, 10:19:51 am »
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In 2007 the final polls tended to overestimate Sarkozy by about 1.5% not that this means we should expect a similar spread. As has been said earlier, French presidential elections are like US elections for president. They are always close. a really solid win means winning 53-47...let's not forget that Obama is viewed as having won a landslide over McCain in 2008 and the popular vote was just 51-46%...I suspect that Hollande will win by about a 5% margin.
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« Reply #2126 on: May 05, 2012, 10:21:15 am »
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Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%, not 51% to 46%.
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« Reply #2127 on: May 05, 2012, 10:41:32 am »
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Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%, not 51% to 46%.

You forgot the Bradley effect.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2128 on: May 05, 2012, 10:48:45 am »
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What about this scenario ?



"THE FINAL CHART"

Wink

Well, crossing fingers... Tongue This is really what should happen.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #2129 on: May 05, 2012, 05:05:33 pm »
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Omg I'm getting really nervous now actually.  One question: is the Front de Gauche staying together for the parliamentary elections, or are the individual parties in it competing independently? 
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Bacon King
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« Reply #2130 on: May 05, 2012, 05:59:14 pm »
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One question: is the Front de Gauche staying together for the parliamentary elections, or are the individual parties in it competing independently? 

They agreed in 2011 that they'd keep the Front united for the parliamentary election. Their candidates are apparently ~80% PCF, ~20% PG, though they're contesting a handful of seats with assorted minor party and leftist independent candidates.
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« Reply #2131 on: May 05, 2012, 06:05:23 pm »
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Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%, not 51% to 46%.

You forgot the Bradley effect.

Not to mention the Shy Sarkozy effect!
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Hash
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« Reply #2132 on: May 05, 2012, 06:09:08 pm »

FTR, the PG currently holds two seats: Marc Dolez, a former PS deputy in the Nord who was one of the party's founding members, and Martine Billard, a former leftie Green deputy from Paris who joined the party in 2009 and whose constituency was 'exploded' by the redistricting. It is unlikely that she will be reelected.
 
edit: oops, forgot Jacques Desallangre (Aisne).
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The Prime Minister of New Zealand:

17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #2133 on: May 05, 2012, 06:11:28 pm »
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I really hope Hollande doesn't turn out to be the PS's answer to Neil Kinnock....
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« Reply #2134 on: May 05, 2012, 06:21:43 pm »
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When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?
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I didn't really read it, tbh.
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« Reply #2135 on: May 05, 2012, 06:54:13 pm »
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When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.
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« Reply #2136 on: May 05, 2012, 06:59:47 pm »
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I'll assume Hollande wins until the results tell us otherwise. Less than 2% margin if so.
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« Reply #2137 on: May 05, 2012, 07:03:51 pm »
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When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?
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« Reply #2138 on: May 05, 2012, 07:05:35 pm »
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When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

8 PM. So 2 PM Eastern.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Hash
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« Reply #2139 on: May 05, 2012, 07:25:32 pm »

Again, for those over here who care, I'll have a serious liveblog starting at 6PM/noon eastern. Once again, I'll request, and I'm sure Al will back me up on this, that nobody directly posts the leaked exit polls for those who like suspense and living in the dark about such stuff. Look it up yourself if you can't hold yourself, but don't post it here.
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The Prime Minister of New Zealand:

17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #2140 on: May 05, 2012, 07:35:40 pm »
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Again, for those over here who care, I'll have a serious liveblog starting at 6PM/noon eastern. Once again, I'll request, and I'm sure Al will back me up on this, that nobody directly posts the leaked exit polls for those who like suspense and living in the dark about such stuff. Look it up yourself if you can't hold yourself, but don't post it here.

Thank's for the head's up. I'll definitely be following your liveblog.

Also, regarding leaked exit polls and such, would it not be acceptable to use tinytext or white font, as a sort of ad hoc spoiler tag?
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« Reply #2141 on: May 05, 2012, 08:25:11 pm »
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Slightly OT: Didn't realise Martine Aubry was Jacques Delors' daughter. Mind blown.
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Hash
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« Reply #2142 on: May 05, 2012, 08:28:39 pm »

Again, for those over here who care, I'll have a serious liveblog starting at 6PM/noon eastern. Once again, I'll request, and I'm sure Al will back me up on this, that nobody directly posts the leaked exit polls for those who like suspense and living in the dark about such stuff. Look it up yourself if you can't hold yourself, but don't post it here.

Thank's for the head's up. I'll definitely be following your liveblog.

Also, regarding leaked exit polls and such, would it not be acceptable to use tinytext or white font, as a sort of ad hoc spoiler tag?

I don't have a problem with people posting links to URLs where the details may be found, as long as the URLs themselves aren't spoilers. At any rate, it's only 1.5 hours. It shouldn't be hard to behave and not spoil the fun of others,
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The Prime Minister of New Zealand:

17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
Tender Branson
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« Reply #2143 on: May 05, 2012, 11:18:55 pm »
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When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

You must be new when it comes to elections.

I've never heard of a country that closes at 8 AM ... Tongue
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #2144 on: May 05, 2012, 11:47:34 pm »
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When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

You must be new when it comes to elections.

I've never heard of a country that closes at 8 AM ... Tongue

Irish exit polls are released around that time of the morning because of the complex counting of STV...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2145 on: May 05, 2012, 11:55:40 pm »
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When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

You must be new when it comes to elections.

I've never heard of a country that closes at 8 AM ... Tongue

Irish exit polls are released around that time of the morning because of the complex counting of STV...

But the day after the election day, right ?

Not at 8am on election day (?).
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« Reply #2146 on: May 06, 2012, 03:01:18 am »
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Sarkozy will be re-elected!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2147 on: May 06, 2012, 03:31:34 am »
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Sarkozy will be re-elected!

Has someone ever closed a 28-point gap and won ?
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« Reply #2148 on: May 06, 2012, 04:28:33 am »
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If Sarkozy wins it will be one of the greatest upsets in the history of modern polling. Hollande has led Sarkozy in a two-way race in every single poll taken since November 2010.
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Charlotte Hebdo
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« Reply #2149 on: May 06, 2012, 04:43:14 am »
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Slightly OT: Didn't realise Martine Aubry was Jacques Delors' daughter. Mind blown.
Why? They are not that different in political outlook.
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