France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

NYPD now changing its version...

Could he be acquitted before the deadline for primary candidacies ? Of course I know the chances are tiny, but I need to believe in it.

I must have missed the part where I called an entire people sexist. A country having a sexist culture isn't the same as everyone in it being sexist. I would have thought that rather obvious.

And while I realize you may be blind to it, being French and all, France is known to be a pretty sexist nation. Not as bad as most non-industrialized nations of course, but still.

That sounds pretty much like I've nothing against Arabs as people, but... you know, their culture bla bla. You strike me as a guy who knows nothing about a place and still makes bold statements like this :

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

You are judging a guy you know nothing about, based only upon the fact he is French. Classy.

[Franzl]

What's different about NYPD's story now?

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #2 - 16 May 2011

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly.

I've said that I'd keep 3 trackers with DSK, Aubry and Hollande, until the scene is clearer.
My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is already changed: 0.1 instead of 0.6 DSK, 0.5 instead of 0.3 Hollande and 0.4 instead of 0.1 Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate (I've said that this ponderation would change quickly and periodically... wow... I wasn't aware how right it could be).

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and will lose a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...


16 May DSK sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,79
NPA   2,48
Mélenchon   4,75
Chevènement   0,98
DSK   26,02
Hulot   8,21
Bayrou   5,70
Borloo   6,53
Villepin   4,33
Sarkozy   19,51
Dupont-Aignan   0,87
Le Pen   19,83


16 May Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,64
NPA   2,93
Mélenchon   4,41
Chevènement   0,90
Aubry   21,17
Hulot   8,65
Bayrou   6,31
Borloo   10,03
Villepin   4,50
Sarkozy   19,96
Dupont-Aignan   1,00
Le Pen   19,49


16 May Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,68
NPA   2,37
Mélenchon   4,61
Chevènement   1,10
Hollande   22,01
Hulot   8,36
Bayrou   6,11
Borloo   8,18
Villepin   4,40
Sarkozy   20,37
Dupont-Aignan   0,83
Le Pen   20,97


16 May generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,68
NPA   2,61
Mélenchon   4,55
Chevènement   1,01
PS   22,07
Hulot   8,46
Bayrou   6,15
Borloo   8,76
Villepin   4,44
Sarkozy   20,12
Dupont-Aignan   0,90
Le Pen   20,26

Even slightly on the rise, Sarkozy is still not able to be above Le Pen.
NPA candidate is gradually fading away.
Things are more levelled in the centre ground.
The aggregate PS candidate is of course lower, with DSK being hugely minored now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's different about NYPD's story now?

Apparently he didn't "left the hotel precipitously" as it has been said. He even went to a restaurant before embarking in the plane.

[big bad fab]

Just for the record, with 2 weeks of Big Bad Tracker

9 May   16 May   
0,9   0,79   Arthaud
3,19   2,48   NPA
4,47   4,75   Mélenchon
0,9   0,98   Chevènement
26,19   26,02   DSK
8,54   8,21   Hulot
5,67   5,70   Bayrou
6,84   6,53   Borloo
4,46   4,33   Villepin
18,77   19,51   Sarkozy
1   0,87   Dupont-Aignan
19,07   19,83   Le Pen

0,64   0,64   Arthaud
3,12   2,93   NPA
4,41   4,41   Mélenchon
0,82   0,90   Chevènement
21,26   21,17   Aubry
8,55   8,65   Hulot
6,23   6,31   Bayrou
9,83   10,03   Borloo
4,61   4,50   Villepin
19,96   19,96   Sarkozy
0,98   1,00   Dupont-Aignan
19,59   19,49   Le Pen

0,79   0,68   Arthaud
3,14   2,37   NPA
4,43   4,61   Mélenchon
0,86   1,10   Chevènement
21,5   22,01   Hollande
8,71   8,36   Hulot
6,14   6,11   Bayrou
9   8,18   Borloo
4,86   4,40   Villepin
19,57   20,37   Sarkozy
1   0,83   Dupont-Aignan
20   20,97   Le Pen

0,8   0,7   Arthaud
3,2   2,6   NPA
4,4   4,5   Mélenchon
0,9   1,0   Chevènement
24,2   22,1   PS
8,6   8,5   Hulot
5,9   6,2   Bayrou
8,0   8,8   Borloo
4,6   4,5   Villepin
19,2   20,1   Sarkozy
1,0   0,9   Dupont-Aignan
19,2   20,2   Le Pen

[Franzl]

What's different about NYPD's story now?

Apparently he didn't "left the hotel precipitously" as it has been said. He even went to a restaurant before embarking in the plane.

OK. Although why did he leave his personal belongings in the hotel room? Don't think this is a game changing detail, honestly.

Innocent until proven guilty....but we'll see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fab, I tried to compile your tracker's results on excel and noticed that some of them (the Aubry one last week, Aubry and DSK today) add up to 100.27%. That's not a big deal, but maybe there's something to fix.

[big bad fab]

Thank you, Antonio... I'm really sorry , it's fixed now .

Just 2 mistakes on Villepin and Le Pen in 2 different polls: I've added one more point to each of them.
(and don't take too much attention to the generic PS tracker, as it appears as rounded, but I've taken precise intermediate results)

It's probably a conspiracy to destroy the grrrrrrrrreat scientific value of this tracker.
I'm considering a sue !!!!!

[big bad fab]

Rue89 has now a very detailed story on Tristane Banon, daughter of Anne Mansouret, a local PS politician from Eure and also one of this series of very small candidates to the PS primary.

I guess that if Libération's title is "DSK out" and if Rue89 writes on all the past sex affairs of DSK, it's really over for him.

Even Aurélie Filipetti, socialist and ex-Green MP, had said she was "pressed" by DSK and took care of not staying alone with him.

Well, the right has nothing to do... just to look at this self-destruction.
The big fear is of course that it would be Panzergirl and not the right that could be a big winner after this new sequence.

Reasonably, Hulot and Borloo should be boosted a bit, but Le Pen may well be solidifying her high support... Sigh...

[big bad fab]

It's not complete yet, but there was a Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien (13-14 May, sample 1050) for PS primaries:

among the whole sample / among socialists
DSK 34 / 41
Hollande 24 / 25
Aubry 18 / 16

Hollande should be the internal winner, as he has not the burden of trying to keep socialists' unity and as Aubry will appear as candidate by default.
She has an angry personality and Hollande connects well with people, especially journalists...

But, still, let's be cautious: I've already said and said again that she is strategically at the centre of the PS.

Delanoë (and even Fabius) may be regretting to have supported Aubry so early... They could have become ideal "new" candidates... (even though Fabius has gathered too many enemies from all sides inside the party)

Of course, Jospin would be even more successful inside the party now, with its old man's wiseness and his personal integrity....
(sorry to be unwillingly so rude to you, Antonio but that's just true, I think)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated the numbers : all works, except last week's Aubry, which now lacks 0.1 points.


That's looking bleaker and bleaker. I still think he is innocent, and the justice will recognize it. But the voters never will... But honestly, part of myself wishes he is guilty, because if he isn't what's happening to him (and to France) is really horrible.

LOL@ Bernard Debré, what a bastard.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Back online for a brief period (maybe). Has this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13411463) been posted yet?

[big bad fab]

Well... I've corrected too much: 4.61 and not 4.50 for Villepin in 9 May Aubry sub-tracker...


Reading what I've read on past affairs, I'm afraid he may be guilty.

You are right: better that he's guilty in a way...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, I think Gustaf has a point. I can understand that it might be an uncomfortable one and it could do with a few additional caveats, but there's a fundamental truth there, like it or not. Roman Polanski did something far worse than anything DSK has been accused of, after all.

To make some related points...

1. The essentially deferential (certainly from a British point of view) that the French media takes towards the private lives of powerful men in France means this sort of thing should not, perhaps, come as a total shock. Why? Because if you know that you can do (almost) anything that you want and get away with it, then there's a good chance that you will. Of course some powerful men will act terribly in their private lives regardless of the threat level, but the line is in a different place.

2. I think I read somewhere that this was a $3,000-a-night suite. First off, that's insane. Secondly... well... there is a certain sort of man who would probably consider that a right to mess with female staff members comes with the a price tag that absurd.

3. It's actually quite unusual for women to make up stories like this about powerful men. Now that goes against what we assume, but it's where the evidence is. For what that's worth.

4. Although DSK seems like a big loss politically speaking, he probably isn't. Why? Because if he is capable of errors in judgment on this titanic scale in his private life (and no matter whether the charges are true - though they probably are - he has certainly made huge errors of judgment along the way) then he would probably have found a way of cocking up the election anyway. He was probably never the candidate that everyone assumed that he was. Maybe the PS - and those of us who hope to see Sarkozy defeated - have been spared.

5. I don't think all attention should be in this thread; DSK was the head of the IMF as well. At the very least there ought to be something on the economics board (perhaps there is - I've not checked).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Third, the idea that this news story is only deserving of being reported within the elections thread of a separate board is a determination only worthy of fascists, sexual deviants and perverts, much like DSK.

I'd rather not have the more lurid details cluttering up this board too much, so... you know...

[big bad fab]

Back online for a brief period (maybe). Has this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13411463) been posted yet?

Yes, sir, though it was by referring to a French media. Sorry.

Rue89 has now a very detailed story on Tristane Banon, daughter of Anne Mansouret, a local PS politician from Eure and also one of this series of very small candidates to the PS primary.

I guess that if Libération's title is "DSK out" and if Rue89 writes on all the past sex affairs of DSK, it's really over for him.

Even Aurélie Filipetti, socialist and ex-Green MP, had said she was "pressed" by DSK and took care of not staying alone with him.

Well, the right has nothing to do... just to look at this self-destruction.
The big fear is of course that it would be Panzergirl and not the right that could be a big winner after this new sequence.

Reasonably, Hulot and Borloo should be boosted a bit, but Le Pen may well be solidifying her high support... Sigh...

[big bad fab]

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien (13-14 May, sample 1050)

among the whole sample / among socialists
DSK 34 / 41
Hollande 24 / 25
Aubry 18 / 16
Royal 11 / 7
Montebourg 5 / 6
Valls 3 / 4
none 3 / 1
don't know 2 / 0

This is now complete and I re-publish it will all the numbers (and a Royal amazingly low).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, sir, though it was by referring to a French media. Sorry.

No need for apologies; I hadn't actually read through the thread at the time.

[You kip if you want to...]

Soooooo... François then (ou Segolene , lol)?

[Antonio the Sixth]

1. The essentially deferential (certainly from a British point of view) that the French media takes towards the private lives of powerful men in France means this sort of thing should not, perhaps, come as a total shock. Why? Because if you know that you can do (almost) anything that you want and get away with it, then there's a good chance that you will. Of course some powerful men will act terribly in their private lives regardless of the threat level, but the line is in a different place.

2. I think I read somewhere that this was a $3,000-a-night suite. First off, that's insane. Secondly... well... there is a certain sort of man who would probably consider that a right to mess with female staff members comes with the a price tag that absurd.

3. It's actually quite unusual for women to make up stories like this about powerful men. Now that goes against what we assume, but it's where the evidence is. For what that's worth.

4. Although DSK seems like a big loss politically speaking, he probably isn't. Why? Because if he is capable of errors in judgment on this titanic scale in his private life (and no matter whether the charges are true - though they probably are - he has certainly made huge errors of judgment along the way) then he would probably have found a way of cocking up the election anyway. He was probably never the candidate that everyone assumed that he was. Maybe the PS - and those of us who hope to see Sarkozy defeated - have been spared.

5. I don't think all attention should be in this thread; DSK was the head of the IMF as well. At the very least there ought to be something on the economics board (perhaps there is - I've not checked).

Those are valid points, if the "affair" had regarded cheating, meeting call-girls or other things like that. Of course a person of his situation can consider he "has the right" to do that (and, to some extent, he indeed has).
However, we are talking about rape here. And we're talking about of a internationally known politician. And we're talking about someone who was preparing a presidential big. And here I have difficulties to immagine such a person couldn't realize what rape could have meant for him. Or that he was ready to take the risk. That doesn't exactly strike me as very credible.

Of course, if this turns out to be true, you're 100% right saying a person like him would be totally unfit as a candidate. But I've still difficulties to believe it.

[You kip if you want to...]

1. The essentially deferential (certainly from a British point of view) that the French media takes towards the private lives of powerful men in France means this sort of thing should not, perhaps, come as a total shock. Why? Because if you know that you can do (almost) anything that you want and get away with it, then there's a good chance that you will. Of course some powerful men will act terribly in their private lives regardless of the threat level, but the line is in a different place.

2. I think I read somewhere that this was a $3,000-a-night suite. First off, that's insane. Secondly... well... there is a certain sort of man who would probably consider that a right to mess with female staff members comes with the a price tag that absurd.

3. It's actually quite unusual for women to make up stories like this about powerful men. Now that goes against what we assume, but it's where the evidence is. For what that's worth.

4. Although DSK seems like a big loss politically speaking, he probably isn't. Why? Because if he is capable of errors in judgment on this titanic scale in his private life (and no matter whether the charges are true - though they probably are - he has certainly made huge errors of judgment along the way) then he would probably have found a way of cocking up the election anyway. He was probably never the candidate that everyone assumed that he was. Maybe the PS - and those of us who hope to see Sarkozy defeated - have been spared.

5. I don't think all attention should be in this thread; DSK was the head of the IMF as well. At the very least there ought to be something on the economics board (perhaps there is - I've not checked).

Those are valid points, if the "affair" had regarded cheating, meeting call-girls or other things like that. Of course a person of his situation can consider he "has the right" to do that (and, to some extent, he indeed has).
However, we are talking about rape here. And we're talking about of a internationally known politician. And we're talking about someone who was preparing a presidential big. And here I have difficulties to immagine such a person couldn't realize what rape could have meant for him. Or that he was ready to take the risk. That doesn't exactly strike me as very credible.

Of course, if this turns out to be true, you're 100% right saying a person like him would be totally unfit as a candidate. But I've still difficulties to believe it.

Literally, just said more or less this to someone about half an hour ago. It just makes no sense! You don't go and rape someone when you're less than a month away from announcing you're running to be president of the 5th biggest economy on the planet. That's just not how it works. That, coupled with the fact that he could be out of the country during the primaries even if he was found not guilty, just make it all too... convenient.

The reports of his casual departure from his hotel and even calling from the airport to ask about his forgotten mobile phone support his innocence.

I'm sure a part-time Spanish Maid in a hotel would take a few thousand dollars from an agent of the the French right to cry rape...

[Insula Dei]

I still can't believe someone is capable of the sheer stupidity of raping a hotel maid when he's already a semi-certainty to be the next President of an actually important country like France. So, I'll continue to believe he didn't. (Also, he appearantly has an alibi for the time of the alledged assault now).

If DSK really did this, well,...

[You kip if you want to...]

The thing is, even if he's found completely not guilty, he's damaged good now. No coming back from this... no doubt the next round of polls will show Hollande ahead.

[Insula Dei]

The thing is, even if he's found completely not guilty, he's damaged good now. No coming back from this... no doubt the next round of polls will show Hollande ahead.

The consensus seems to be tha if he convincingly clears himself from this, it could actually boost his numbers. Either way, it's not like he'll even file to run.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously we don't know all of the facts, but before people board the train to Conspiracy Theory Central (change at Crewe), some points to remember:

1. That DSK has what might be called a somewhat predatory attitude to women is well known and, lo, there have now been other accusations.

2. It is - as noted already - very unusual for women to make up this sort of thing about powerful men. That might seem counter-intuitive, but that's the direction in which the evidence stacks up.

3. If this is the work of some conspiracy somewhere, it is a remarkably competent and efficient one. It is not easy to make up credible charges involving sexual violence. And these are credible charges, no matter how this ends.

Even if there are technicalities that let him off, even if it was the work of a conspiracy after all, this all looks really bad. I agree that it does seem magnificently fortunate for Sarkozy and it is certainly an extraordinary story, but you should never underestimate human stupidity. Or forget that the only people who act in a perfectly rational (from their point of view) manner at all times are often given a label that begins with 's' and ends with 'path'.

That's all for now. Please keep matters civilised here; I'm not online as much as I'd like right now.