France 2012: the official thread

[Gustaf]

Look, if you want to be treated with respect you don't start a discussion with me the way you did. Why should I show you any respect when you attack me personally without offering anything resembling an argument? I only give people respect if I think they deserve it and you're not doing very well so far.

So, you think that journalist who said 4 years ago, on tv, that he, during an interview, ripped her clothes off and struggled with her on the floor until she kicked him away was also lying? Of course, the ever so objective French media edited out his name. And when it is mentioned on the show no one seems to consider it a big deal. It seems to be more of a funny anecdote. But that could be my prejudices again, I suppose. And the MP who says she was afraid of being in the same room as him, was she also lying?

You're claiming that he's a poor innocent man who will have a destroyed reputation. But it is at this stage extremely unlikely that he isn't a pretty sexist bastard, even if he didn't rape this girl (or if it cannot be proven because his money can hire good enough lawyers). So I can't muster up enormous wells of sympathy for a man who has obviously a pretty warped view of women.

It is also notable that your surprise at this incident seems to be more because French media doesn't report when powerful people misbehave than because it is so out of character. This has been a recurring theme with many French politicians in the past as well. Which makes it funny that you think everyone but French media is being biased - your track record on cases like this isn't that good, I'm afraid.

Furthermore, it's great that you know Polanski wouldn't have any support. It's still a fact that your government supported him and did so enthusiastically. I'm sure DSK could not get elected if he turned out to be guilty but I doubt his life would be ruined. I guess he would have to content himself with driving around in his Porsche, harassing women and drinking fine wine. I'm afraid I will reserve most of my sympathy for people more deserving of it (say starving kids in Darfur).

Your point on famous people having a hard time is quite ridiculous. If I were arrested and publicly named for rape don't you think everyone I knew would know? Don't you think my social life would be destroyed? My professional career? Your contention here is absolutely bizarre. Perhaps you're unaware that this happens to everyone in the US, not just famous people.

And, of course, I never said you said rich people should be getting VIP treatment in prison. I said that I didn't think so and that it hardly means hating rich people.

Finally, you said:

Updated the numbers : all works, except last week's Aubry, which now lacks 0.1 points.


That's looking bleaker and bleaker. I still think he is innocent, and the justice will recognize it. But the voters never will... But honestly, part of myself wishes he is guilty, because if he isn't what's happening to him (and to France) is really horrible.

LOL@ Bernard Debré, what a bastard.

My emphasis. So I think my characterization of you "arguing his innocence" was rather correct. It's a bit bizarre that you attack me for putting word in your mouth when those words are not words I ever said...

You claimed that I was a bigot brainwashed by my biased newspaper. I'm just asking what is more likely, given the fact that so many people, journalists and posters seem to be in agreement with me? I'm also hinting, gently, that now that my original statement has been backed up by some of the world's leading newspapers your contention that I was showing my bigoted ignorance and reliance on anecdotal evidence might warrant an apology. You were obviously having an emotional reaction and had no idea what you were talking about, while I was making a rather uncontroversial point.

See, next time someone joins most people in the world on an issue and disagrees with you, it might be a good idea not to reply by telling them they're an idiot. Just as a little tip.

[opebo]

Nobody so far has pointed out the horrendous brutality of the way he was treated by the American authorities.

...that this has happened to DSK is not evidence of unusually brutal treatment or of an attempt to humiliate France. Americans are a theatrical brutal people, that's all.

The point is that America is a savage, inhumane, brutal land where individual rights mean little, compared to France.

[Gustaf]

I'd argue that calling "serial seducers" sexist is the actual sexism in this case. You act like the women they seduce are brainless/defenseless and can't think for themselves... "won't someone step in and protect these dumb little girls from the mean old men tricking them into sex!" As long as everyone involved is consenting to whatever is happening, you really can't lump "seducers" or "charmers" in with "gropers" and "rapists."

Obviously French society doesn't see a huge problem with not sticking to the traditional puritanical conception of monogamy. That doesn't mean they're all rapists and misogynists.

Precisely.  You've just elucidated perfectly why Gustaf is the sexist on this forum, not I.

So, do you think wanting to give poor people protection through a generous dole is condescending and classist?

[opebo]

So, do you think wanting to give poor people protection through a generous dole is condescending and classist?

It may be, but that doesn't bother me in the least, Gustaf.

[Gustaf]

So, do you think wanting to give poor people protection through a generous dole is condescending and classist?

It may be, but that doesn't bother me in the least, Gustaf.

Ah, so you're playing your hypocrite game as usual. If you don't care about respecting either women or poor people, why not be open and honest about it? Why the little charade about trying to call me sexist?

PS: I of course have no problem with women sleeping around with different men or anything like that. That was just Lief not bothering to understand me.

[Хahar 🤔]

And anyways, as I've said, the police still could easily keep him under control outside of jail. Assigning him a residence should have been enough.

I don't understand why they would do this. Certainly they wouldn't give any other rape suspect a house to live in.

[Gustaf]

And anyways, as I've said, the police still could easily keep him under control outside of jail. Assigning him a residence should have been enough.

I don't understand why they would do this. Certainly they wouldn't give any other rape suspect a house to live in.

But Xahar, we're talking about a famous politician who drives a Porsche here. Being in jail isn't the same for him as it would be for us normal people. It's much more humiliating and degrading. In fact, even punishing such as great man would be a travesty of justice.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

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Fleeing for him would be like admitting his guiltiness, and thus authomatically becoming one of the most hated person in the world. Wherever he goes, he would almost certainly be extraded, if only due to popular pressure. And even if he weren't, he couldn't in any way "live the high life" anymore, his goods would probably be frozen and all this. If he considers that he has decent chances be acquitted (and he has, independently from his innocence : he can still be acquitted on benefit of the doubt).
And anyways, as I've said, the police still could easily keep him under control outside of jail. Assigning him a residence should have been enough.

And since you're mentioning Polanski, let's say once for all than the two affairs have absolutely nothing in common. One was an artist (not the same kind of "popularity"), the procedure was not at the same point, and his culpability was undoubted. Comparing the two affairs is pretty demagogic.

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Maybe they didn't knew it 3 days ago, now they do. And anyways the same happens in France (even though media seem a bit more measured, for what I've heard) and in the rest of the world.

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If he is innocent, yes, he is the victim of a horrendous slander and of an excessively brutal treatment.

All right, look. Whenever DSK is guilty or not (and it's up to the courts, not us, to determine this), giving him preferential treatment because he's a prominent financier and a politician would be grossly unfair toward countless suspects/accused people, who doesn't enjoy his high position.

[Joe Republic]

Nicolas Sarkozy of all people had to warn DSK before becoming IMF chief that people outside France don't tolerate perverts, indicating that it would bring shame on the nation.

Even if there was no actual rape, the maid wouldn't bring these kind of charges unless he was attempting to invoke his, um... 'natural rights as a Frenchman' upon her in some way.  Not unless there was some kind of sinister conspiracy against him from the start.

[Gustaf]

Nicolas Sarkozy of all people had to warn DSK before becoming IMF chief that people outside France don't tolerate perverts, indicating that it would bring shame on the nation.

Even if there was no actual rape, the maid wouldn't bring these kind of charges unless he was attempting to invoke his, um... 'natural rights as a Frenchman' upon her in some way.  Not unless there was some kind of sinister conspiracy against him from the start.

It seems to me that his reaction throughout the whole thing would have been different if it was all a big lie and conspiracy.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What annoys me is a hackery, like "omg, this is conspiracy!" or "he's surely guilty, we know DSK is that kind of person".

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for 20 Minutes:

Hollande 23
Sarkozy 22
Le Pen 20

Aubry 23
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 19

Royal 18
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 20

No big change here.
In the first round, Borloo gains 4 points (from 4 to , Bayrou between 2 and 4 points.

I'll re-publish it when we have complete results.

(Guys, I'm desperately trying to put the discussion back to the main subject of this thread... )

[You kip if you want to...]

CSA poll for 20 Minutes:

Hollande 23
Sarkozy 22
Le Pen 20

Aubry 23
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 19

Royal 18
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 20

No big change here.
In the first round, Borloo gains 4 points (from 4 to , Bayrou between 2 and 4 points.

I'll re-publish it when we have complete results.

(Guys, I'm desperately trying to put the discussion back to the main subject of this thread... )

...FRANCOIS 2012! Francois pour les Francais!

[big bad fab]

His word for the moment is "a normal president"...

[Psychic Octopus]

DSK is on suicide watch.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I actually read about this IMF chief thing in the paper today and was thinking "hey! I should bring this up on the forum!" Looks like I got beaten to it.

[King]

So, Frenchies, would Strauss-Kahn still win 75% of the vote in a runoff against Le Pen or does rape outweigh fascism in France?

Also, we might end up needing a new France 2012 thread by the time all the dust settles here.  It's already looking like a minor flame war based on the past few pages I've read.

[Mr. Morden]

Some French media outlets have apparently broadcast the accuser's name:

link

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[Associate Justice PiT]

Nicolas Sarkozy of all people had to warn DSK before becoming IMF chief that people outside France don't tolerate perverts, indicating that it would bring shame on the nation.

Even if there was no actual rape, the maid wouldn't bring these kind of charges unless he was attempting to invoke his, um... 'natural rights as a Frenchman' upon her in some way.  Not unless there was some kind of sinister conspiracy against him from the start.

     The notion of DSK having to be warned is quite interesting ultimately. Regardless of the truth of the matter, this whole affair & the revelations that have surfaced as a result of it tap into a very negative stereotype of France & its people.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gustaf, I'm not arguing with you as long as you keep missing my points and putting words in my mouth (because 90% of your post is based only on that). I might be wrong in my argument, but at least I genuinely try to adress the points you make.

[MaxQue]

Gustaf, I'm not arguing with you as long as you keep missing my points and putting words in my mouth (because 90% of your post is based only on that). I might be wrong in my argument, but at least I genuinely try to adress the points you make.

Well, I'm thinking he may has a point on French people.

Not a socialist leader expressed any compassion to the alleged victim.
Comments on French news sites are insulting the victim, too.

There seems to have a generalised banalisation of rape in French news, and, that, that is worriying.
Much more than the actual trial.

[Gustaf]

Gustaf, I'm not arguing with you as long as you keep missing my points and putting words in my mouth (because 90% of your post is based only on that). I might be wrong in my argument, but at least I genuinely try to adress the points you make.

I guess that is the best I will get from you and I suppose the thread shouldn't be further derailed. It would be wise to learn not to attack people instead of arguing with them just because they disagree with you.

[big bad fab]

OK, let's talk about politics .

CSA poll, for 20 Minutes and BFM TV, 16 May 2011, sample 838 RVs among a total sample of 1007

Presidential election, first round:

Hollande 23 / Aubry 23 / Royal 18
Sarkozy 22 / 23 / 23
Le Pen 20 / 19 / 20
Borloo 8 / 8 / 10
Bayrou 7 / 7 / 9
Villepin 4 / 4 / 4
Hulot 6 / 6 / 6
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5
NPA candidate 2 / 2 / 2
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 2 / 2 / 2

Amazing result for Dupont-Aignan .
Chevènement hasn't been included.

There is one problem with this poll: it's too perfect to be good.
In all the other polls, numbers vary stupidly depending on the hypothesis, as if people change their mind on Sarkozy, Dupont-Aignan or Arthaud just because it's Aubry instead of Hollande.
It may seem stupid in some cases, but I'm convinced it's true.

Here, Hulot, the 3 far-left candidates, Villepin and Dupont-Aignan are remarkably stable. That's a bit suspicious.

The big points are that, without DSK, everything is razor-thin between Sarkozy, the PS and Panzergirl,
and that the "centre" is a wide and moving area, up fro grabs: Hulot is a bit down (is his momentum already over ?), Borloo is in good shape though not stratospheric and Bayrou is higher but we can't see how he could remake his 2007 rise.

This election will be won in the centre, contrary to what Sarkozy and some of his advisers think.
And Hollande is the best choice for the PS in this respect.
Villepin and Mélenchon are stuck to their numbers.

[big bad fab]

CSA poll, for 20 Minutes and BFM TV, 16 May 2011, sample 838 RVs among a total sample of 1007

Socialist primary election:

among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 33 / 42
Aubry 23 / 22
Royal 20 / 18
Montebourg 3 / 3
Valls 2 / 2
Moscovici 2 / 1
none 7 / 5
don't know 10 / 7

It's quite in line with Harris, though Royal is higher.

What is surprising in these 2 polls is that the advantage for Hollande is bigger among socialists than among French people in general.

The current media buzz in favour of Aubry ("she can't decline being a candidate"), which I don't really understand in the way it occurs (feminism ? huge leftist bias in French medias ?) -though it'd be of course logical for her to declare a candidacy-, seems not to be in line with what is the reality: among rank-and-file, those who supported DSK will mostly support Hollande.

[Sam Spade]

This is the type of case where no one beats NY tabloids.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/imf_accuser_in_apt_for_hiv_vics_oZmUkbtouJ14RHw1434HvJ

Guess Sarkozy is so damn brilliant that he put him in jail and gave him AIDS too!