France 2012: the official thread

[Insula Dei]

I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?

Well, no.

Not guilty leads to normal punishment.
If you plea "guilty", you usually have a deal with the Attorney, in which you plea guilty and the attorney is asking a more lenient sentence, because you cooperated.

In the attorney view, it is better to have no trial with a reduced punishment than than a lenghly and costly trial, which can be very difficult to witnesses, victims and their families and which can fail to convince the jury.

Well yeah, but US normal punishments are quite bad and the US doesn't seem to parole-happy. I believe DSK would risk 74 years if he was found guilty of all the charges brought against him. Over here 74 years wouldn't even be given for murder.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?

Well, no.

Not guilty leads to normal punishment.
If you plea "guilty", you usually have a deal with the Attorney, in which you plea guilty and the attorney is asking a more lenient sentence, because you cooperated.

In the attorney view, it is better to have no trial with a reduced punishment than than a lenghly and costly trial, which can be very difficult to witnesses, victims and their families and which can fail to convince the jury.

Well yeah, but US normal punishments are quite bad and the US doesn't seem to parole-happy. I believe DSK would risk 74 years if he was found guilty of all the charges brought against him. Over here 74 years wouldn't even be given for murder.

If he is innocent, he has no reason to worry. The American justice has its flaws, but doesn't seem as prone to judicial errors as the French one.

[Franzl]

It's not like maximum penalties are really given very often in cases like this, and certainly not for someone like DSK. His lawyers will get him a relatively good sentence even if he's guilty.

On another issue....I'm really having trouble figuring out what I personally believe. It would be nice if this were some big misunderstanding, but I dunno...

[Gustaf]

It's not like maximum penalties are really given very often in cases like this, and certainly not for someone like DSK. His lawyers will get him a relatively good sentence even if he's guilty.

On another issue....I'm really having trouble figuring out what I personally believe. It would be nice if this were some big misunderstanding, but I dunno...

From what I read 20 years is likely to be the max punishment and even that is not particularly likely.

And so far there seems to be plenty of indications that he's guilty, while there is really nothing indicating that this is a conspiracy (which seems to be the only alternative explanation).

Anyway, since the police apparently have blood found on the sheets and semen found on the floor (that is, according to the media reports I've seen) I assume the case will be pretty clear-cut once the tests have been run. 

[Verily]

CSA apparently has a poll out saying that 60% of French believe DSK was set up. Yeah, he definitely isn't a flight risk and definitely wouldn't be welcomed with open arms...

[Insula Dei]

CSA apparently has a poll out saying that 60% of French believe DSK was set up. Yeah, he definitely isn't a flight risk and definitely wouldn't be welcomed with open arms...

France most certainly wouldn't welcome DSK with open arms.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

His defence team seems to be gearing up to argue that it was consensual. So, yeah; he's guilty. The only question now being whether his lawyers can smear the victim enough to get him off regardless, something that is not exactly unknown in rape trials.

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for le Journal du Dimanche, 17-18 May 2011, sample 951

Who would be a "good candidate" for the PS ?

among the whole sample / among the leftists / among the socialists

Hollande 57 / 76 / 80
Aubry 47 / 76 / 81
Delanoë 36 / 57 / 59
Fabius 28 / 39 / 39
Valls 25 / 34 / 40
Royal 23 / 42 / 45
Montebourg 20 / 37 / 37
Moscovici 20 / 32 / 38
Hamon 19 / 33 / 35

A "bad candidate" ?

Hollande 30 / 20 / 16
Aubry 40 / 19 / 15
Delanoë 47 / 35 / 33
Fabius 56 / 53 / 54
Valls 45 / 44 / 43
Royal 65 / 54 / 50
Montebourg 52 / 43 / 46
Moscovici 50 / 45 / 43
Hamon 53 / 46 / 47

Of course, this type of poll is partly stupid as most people who answer aren't even able to think outside the distinction between real candidates (Hollande, Aubry, Valls, Montebourg) and only possible ones (Delanoë, Fabius, Moscovici).

Please note how Fabius and even more Royal are rejected (Palin syndrome, sort of ).

Delanoë is confirmed as the only one who could enter the race with good prospects.
I think he might declare if Aubry isn't able to rise a bit in polls against Hollande.

Of course, Aubry isn't far behind Hollande inside the left in terms of favorability.
But her problem is that Hollande is clearly seen as being far more likely to win (see the 3 other polls on primaries since the last week-end).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course the fact the possibility of consensual sex as his defense is evoked (though so far it's only a rumour and we shouldn't be too quick) seems to make his guiltiness far more likely. It might very well be true however.

[big bad fab]

Of course the fact the possibility of consensual sex as his defense is evoked (though so far it's only a rumour and we shouldn't be too quick) seems to make his guiltiness far more likely. It might very well be true however.

The woman that provided call-girls to Spitzer said she provided some also to DSK... Another tabloid, though

And Le Point said his last word before having been arrested in the plane was "quel beau c.l!" about a female steward ("what a beautiful a.s !").

There, here we are, our medias are now officially americanized.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, everybody knew he was a "hot rabbit". And that's irrelevant.

Now I'd really like to know what evidence the accusation really has, because this will change a lot of things. A lot has been said so far, but nothing confirmed. Things will be clearer in the next days.

As I've said, and for cruel that this might be, I really wish he is guilty.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incriminated. Now we'll see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting debate/show on France 2.

For once, Manuel Valls is excellent.

Edit : really excellent.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The bail is aceepted. Common sense has won, eventually.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The bail is accepted. Common sense has won, eventually.

That he had time to make arrangements for living in NY under house detention and given up his IMF post (along with any possible use of a diplomatic passport) likely helped.

[big bad fab]

Back to business, the only interesting one here

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 15-16 May 2011, sample 802
on socialist primaries

Let's be careful, the sample is tiny, but still, the gap is huge:

among the socialists / among the whole left
Hollande 49 / 37
Aubry 23 / 22
Royal 10 / 14
Montebourg 1 / 4
Valls 3 / 2
nobe of them 14 / 21

Considering the socialists are the most likely to vote, this is good for Hollande.
Let's hope Royal will mess some things around, forcing Aubry to deal with lil' quarrels inside the party and Hollande will be safe.

(great news ! )

Guys, there was also an hypothesis with DSK !!! They were a bit ashamed of it and the maelstrom brought everything with it...

Hollande 38 / 30
DSK 27 / 27
Aubry 19 / 19
Royal 8 / 12
Montebourg 1 / 3
Valls 3 / 2
none 3 / 6
don't know 1 / 1

So, even before the Affair, Hollande was above DSK (and Aubry) !!!

Amazing, even if it's Harris Interactive....

Well, I better understand why all the apparatchiki who smell the old SFIO (Emmanuelli, Bartolone, Cohen, Lamy, Désir,...) are so eager to see Aubry declaring her candidacy... There is really something pushing Hollande !

In a way, the Affair has prevented a BIG title in favour of Hollande: imagine this !!! Hollande above DSK !!!

A pity, really....

[Antonio the Sixth]

OMG... Well, this gives us another possible theory : that a partisan of left unity who had know about the poll before anyone else became afraid of tough primaries between DSK and Hollande, and decided to "eliminate" the runner-up in order to ensure an easy win for Hollande.
Or a supporter of Martine Aubry who wanted to give her a better chance to win.

[tpfkaw]

Several blogs I read, written by radical libertarians, seem to be on DSK's side.  Strange bedfellows, eh, Tony?

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/case-for-imf-chief-dominique-strauss.html

[big bad fab]

OMG... Well, this gives us another possible theory : that a partisan of left unity who had know about the poll before anyone else became afraid of tough primaries between DSK and Hollande, and decided to "eliminate" the runner-up in order to ensure an easy win for Hollande.
Or a supporter of Martine Aubry who wanted to give her a better chance to win.

And now Aubrysts and Cambadélis are trying to force the idea of dropping the primary and deciding ina "consensus" who is candidate...
Like when Aubry "democratically" won the first secretariat, eh ?...

Are they mad ? Or are they really thieves and specialists of shenanigans ?
I mean, let's keep on like this, after having shouted everywhere the UMP is a dictatorial party and primaries were the ultimate democratic process...

Anyway, another poll which is bad for Delanoë and good for Hollande:

TNS-SOFRES poll for Canal +, 17-18 May 2011, sample 962

Who has the best chances to win the presidential election ?

among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 38 / 49
Aubry 18 / 22
Royal 8 / 9
Fabius 5 / 4
Delanoë 3 / 3
Valls 1 / 0
Montebourg 1 / 1
none 16 / 8
don'tknow 10 / 4

These are the "first" answers, because each person polled was able to give more than one answer.
With the total of references:
Hollande 56 / 71
Aubry 44 / 61
Royal 14 / 15
Fabius 12 / 9
Delanoë 7 / 9
Valls 4 / 3
Montebourg 3 / 2
none 16 / 8
don't know 10 / 4

Well, of course, the first series of numbers is the most important one, but the second series revel shat Aubry isn't rejected at all: she is just a far second...

And SOFRES has asked the good question, I think, because voters in the primaries will take into account the electability before any other criterion.

If the apparatchiki (sorry, I don't know how to call them otherwise, as this is so adequate... when you see what Bartolone, Emmanuelli, Hamon, Cambadélis, Désir, Assouline, Lamy, Lebranchu, etc. are able to say and do...) don't steal the vote, well, Hollande is clearly, for the moment, the favourite.

I still think Delanoë could be a more threatening contender for Hollande than Aubry. We'll see.

It's really enjoyable , whatever the result.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I've no sympathy for Hollande, but cancelling the primaries would be a catastrophe and would head the PS to an epic failure. I don't know how much credit to give to these rumours, though. The PS is a losing machine, we know that, but they should be really demented to do that now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Several blogs I read, written by radical libertarians, seem to be on DSK's side.  Strange bedfellows, eh, Tony?

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/case-for-imf-chief-dominique-strauss.html

As usual with conspiracy theories, there are some intriguing elements and a lot of bullsh*t.
On the first side, the points he makes about the hotel's behaviour, the victim's attorney, the fact DSK could (and did) simply get call-girls, and more generally the fact it comes extremely opportunely for several people. To this we can add the fact the person who have seen him that day all affirm he was calm and acted normally. Again, that's not evidence of anything, but that's nonetheless elements to consider.
As for the bullsh*t, the muslim/headscarf stuff is just ridiculous. And La Conquête, which I've just seen a couple of hours ago, is not an anti-Sarkozy movie and was absolutely never expected to hurt Sarko in any way. It's wasn't ever intended to make a political point, it's mostly factual and tells what everybody already knows.

[big bad fab]

You know I've no sympathy for Hollande, but cancelling the primaries would be a catastrophe and would head the PS to an epic failure. I don't know how much credit to give to these rumours, though. The PS is a losing machine, we know that, but they should be really demented to do that now.

Unfortunately (oh, I should say "fortunately" if I'd react like an UMP-hack ), that's not rumours.
Cambadélis and Valls are slightly less extreme than Patriat or Bartolone: the former want only "suspension" while the latter want a complete stop.

[Sam Spade]

Several blogs I read, written by radical libertarians, seem to be on DSK's side.  Strange bedfellows, eh, Tony?

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/case-for-imf-chief-dominique-strauss.html

It is no accident that those who cannot obtain sex by normal means tend to be the most supportive of rape

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I've no sympathy for Hollande, but cancelling the primaries would be a catastrophe and would head the PS to an epic failure. I don't know how much credit to give to these rumours, though. The PS is a losing machine, we know that, but they should be really demented to do that now.

Unfortunately (oh, I should say "fortunately" if I'd react like an UMP-hack ), that's not rumours.
Cambadélis and Valls are slightly less extreme than Patriat or Bartolone: the former want only "suspension" while the latter want a complete stop.

I've heard Valls on France 2 thursday and he talked about "mettre les primaires entre parenthèses". Maybe I'm overly naive, but I simply interpreted it as meaning candidates suspending their campaign, not about cancelling the primaries outright. A few guys like Bartolone may call for that, but I doubt the leadership will be silly enough to follow.

And well, if Aubry really wants to be candidate, she could start actually campaigning now. She certainly can beat Hollande.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Aubry on France 2 a couple of minutes ago. So yeah, looks like she will be a candidate. She can win IMO, she certainly will have a strong appeal as the "normal" candidate and the non-egocentric one. But she'll have to start campaigning really.