France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nah, that's fine.

BTW, I forgot to comment the last PS primary poll, but of course that's great news and I hope this trend will continue.

[big bad fab]

Guigou is behind Aubry and a great bunch of strauss-kahnians will support her (all the more if Mosco, supported by Marisol Touraine, is a candidate: that will let none of them behind Hollande).
And Delanoë, who isn't making any noise towards a candidacy (well, as there will be no big fight until July, he won't have any opportunity to appear as a potential "saviour"), will probably rally Aubry .
It's really all against Hollande... Maybe it's his great asset .


In other news, Yves Pietrasanta wants to be Génération Ecologie candidate for 2012.
He is back in this less leftist green party, after the Greens have excluded him as he didn't want to resign as VP of Frêche.

I mention it as it's not entirely impossible for him to gather the 500 signatures to be candidate.
The former president of GE, France Gamerre, claimed she gathered 466 in 2007.
Maybe it's less in fact, but Pietrasanta is a bit better known and some DVG mayors may be pushed to sign for him in order to steal votes from Hulot (an aim for the PS).
And maybe the UMP will push some DVD mayors if Borloo appears too strong.

With Dupont-Aignan, Boutin and (probably) Schivardi, he is among those candidates who are on the edge in terms of signatures.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #5 - 6 June 2011

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement.

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...


6 June Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,92
NPA      0,96
Mélenchon   5,03
Chevènement   0,42
Aubry      24,75
Hulot      8,68
Bayrou      5,79
Borloo      7,96
Villepin      4,00
Sarkozy      21,84
Dupont-Aignan   0,77
Le Pen      18,87
   


6 June Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud      1,02
NPA      0,97
Mélenchon   5,06
Chevènement   0,52
Hollande      26,15
Hulot      8,63
Bayrou      5,41
Borloo      7,41
Villepin      3,78
Sarkozy      21,10
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      19,22



6 June generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,98
NPA      0,97
Mélenchon   5,05
Chevènement   0,48
PS      25,59
Hulot      8,65
Bayrou      5,56
Borloo      7,63
Villepin      3,87
Sarkozy      21,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,76
Le Pen      19,08


With no new poll this week (), the small changes are only the effect of time.
What we said last week is still true.

From an outside viewpoint, what strikes most is the very low level of Sarkozy, considering votes for Villepin and Borloo aren't guaranteed at all to come back to him in the 2nd round.
The socialist candidate is clearly ahead, but the left as a whole isn't very high at all.
The "outsiders" are high, either Le Pen or the "centrist" candidates.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No new poll ? How is this possible ? So yeah, this week's changes are only statistical adjustments...


Anyways, here are finally the graphs !

Aubry :


Hollande :


Every candidate who has at some point reached 5% will be included. I'll update the graph every 4 weeks. I don't think we need a trendline since Fab's method already ensures some regression to the mean.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

How come the Le Pen support is falling?

[Antonio the Sixth]

How come the Le Pen support is falling?

A lot of us are asking ourselves that actually. The initial thought was that the DSK affair would have benefitted to her significantly, yet her support is slightly declining. Maybe the simplest explanation is that her support has reached a maximum (keep in mind that the current numbers are extremely high even for France's standards : less than one year ago, her numbers were around 10-15% AFAIK) and now are just stabilizing. The last months have seen a massive surge for Le Pen, to the point where polls showed her ahead or tied with Sarkozy. Massive surges like these rarely entirely hold on when you're so far from the election.

Of course that's not to say "april 21" threat is avoided, far from it. At this point, a lot of things still can happen.

[Hash]

Some observers also said the DSK affair would only 'solidify' her support rather than boost it.

[big bad fab]

Some observers also said the DSK affair would only 'solidify' her support rather than boost it.

Yes, I was among them from the beginning.
She has already gained what she can gain.
Besancenot's withdrawal gave her 1 or 1.5 point before DSK earthquake, but she has lost them since then.

Basically, she is not really falling, just remaining very high and threatening Sarkozy, though it is more up to him not lose, rather than up to her to climb even higher.

But it seems as if we are now in a more classical lef-right fight, with the socialists having benefited from Besancenot's withdrawal (Mélenchon has barely won 0.5 point) and with Hollande and Aubry being valued higher since DSK is out.

They may be default choices, but the fact that centrist and even rightist voters who opted for DSK now opt for Hollande (and even Aubry a bit) rather than going back to Sarkozy or adding to Borloo prove how deep the resentment against Sarkozy is among centrists and centre-rightists.


Thanks a lot Antonio, these graphs are very clear.

But... Villepin would be cool to add .
And even the others, though they may be difficult to read.

[big bad fab]

Harris Interactive poll for Marianne, 3-5 June 2011, sample 1449

Hollande 27 / Aubry 25 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 23 / 24 / 26
Le Pen 21 / 22 / 22
Mélenchon 7 / 7 / 8
Borloo 7 / 7 / 9
Bayrou 6 / 6 / 7
Hulot 6 / 6 / 7
Villepin 2 / 2 / 3
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Arthaud 0 / 0 / 0
Martin (NPA) 0 / 0 / 0

Sarkozy is on the rise in this new poll, with Villepin and Le Pen down (remember it's Harris: Le Pen was VERY high in their previous polls).

Both Hollande and Aubry are on the rise, with the same gap between them as usual.
Royal is again eliminated in the first round, by a huge margin.

Mélenchon is the clear winner here, with both the LO and NPA candidates at almost 0.

So, as in my previous comments, I'd say that we have a more classical left-right combat, with Le Pen still high and a small advantage for Hollande on Aubry.

For the second round, still a clear defeat for Sarkozy:
Hollande 60-40 Sarkozy
Aubry 58- 42 Sarkozy
Le Pen 37-63 Sarkozy (very high result for Marion "Marine")
Royal 51-49 Sarkozy (theoretical, of course...)

It's interesting to see that Hollande grasps 25% of FN voters (75% for Sarkozy, as Harris doesn't give us those who abstain...) or% of Le Pen voters, 39% of Radicals or 46% of Borloo voters, 84% of MoDem voters or 83% of Bayrou voters, 93% of Green voters or 76% of Hulot voters (where we see that Hulot's appeal is wider).

Aubry is a bit less efficient among centrists and rightists: 32% of Radicals and , 17% of FN voters and 29% of Le Pen voters,
but she is on par among MoDem (82%) and Bayrou (83%) voters,
interestingly, she is high among Greens (94%) but less among Hulot voters (71%).

So, she is quite a good first term candidate (as Hollande's 2 or 3 points margin would probably lessen during a campaign, except if Sarkozy is forced to tilt to the far-right).
But she is clearly a less good candidate for the 2nd round.

The only hope of Sarkozy is here:
taking a psychological advantage, being good at GOTV.
Indeed,
only 13% wish strongly his reelection
15% wish a bit,
17% rather don't wish,
53% don't wish at all !

BUT:
6% think his reelection is certain,
51% think it's likely (probable),
28% unlikely (peu probable),
13% impossible.

Of course, many people could be illiterate enough not to know the difference between probable and possible...
And you don't have a central category with just possible or so-so.
Still, he has an opportunity, provided events are on his side, socialists fight too much between themselves in the autumn, etc...

[Antonio the Sixth]

BUT:
6% think his reelection is certain,
51% think it's likely (probable),
28% unlikely (peu probable),
13% impossible.

Of course, many people could be illiterate enough not to know the difference between probable and possible...
And you don't have a central category with just possible or so-so.
Still, he has an opportunity, provided events are on his side, socialists fight too much between themselves in the autumn, etc...

I'm not among those who think Sarkozy is done, but 57% thinking it's more likely than not is outright ridiculous.

Edit : now that I think about it, it might be a very good thing for the left. Those two poll put together show us that french people want him to lose, but fears it will win. That will probably make them even more prone to prevent his victory, for example avoiding vote split in the first round...

[DL]

Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

I think there have been a few polls about it, showing the PS candidate in the 60-70 range (thus, surprisingly similar to Sarkozy).

[big bad fab]

Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

Do you ever bother to read past posts in this topic ?
There are some of such polls.

[big bad fab]

BUT:
6% think his reelection is certain,
51% think it's likely (probable),
28% unlikely (peu probable),
13% impossible.

Of course, many people could be illiterate enough not to know the difference between probable and possible...
And you don't have a central category with just possible or so-so.
Still, he has an opportunity, provided events are on his side, socialists fight too much between themselves in the autumn, etc...

I'm not among those who think Sarkozy is done, but 57% thinking it's more likely than not is outright ridiculous.

Edit : now that I think about it, it might be a very good thing for the left. Those two poll put together show us that french people want him to lose, but fears it will win. That will probably make them even more prone to prevent his victory, for example avoiding vote split in the first round...

As far as I'm concerned, I think you're right. Too much people want to see his back.

But medias may tell another story.
That might be the only way out for Sarkozy.

[DL]

Do they ever bother testing the results of a hypothetical run-off between Hollande or Aubry and Marine LePen if Sarkozy comes in third? Judging from the polls there is more of a chance of that happening than of Sarkozy/LePen run-off. I would also be very curious to see where Sarkozy's voters would go in that scenario.

Do you ever bother to read past posts in this topic ?
There are some of such polls.

Is there a reason why you need to be so nasty and condescending in your comments? I asked a simple question - all I needed was an answer.

[Keystone Phil]

Is there a reason why you need to be so nasty and condescending in your comments?

Yes, there is a reason. Please note the shape of his avatar and the thread in which you are posting.

[big bad fab]

My reputation on this forum is indeed to be nasty and condescendant...
Sorry that it has fallen on you as, usually, I'm not posting like that, just thinking it .

When somebody writes "do they ever bother testing...", it may mean something.
And if you are "curious", yes, you can search in this very thread.

Unfortunately, this thread has been polluted, for one half of its current length, by many posts on DSK. But if you read only the polls I post periodically (with a title easy to see, to notice), you'll be informed.

And if you knew, Phil, how much unFrench I am !!! LOL !
Ask Antonio or Hashemite.

[Hash]

Better condescending than a ridiculous, blind partisan hack unable to analyse anything without partisan glasses.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Antonio the Sixth]

And if you knew, Phil, how much unFrench I am !!! LOL !
Ask Antonio or Hashemite.

You're the French equivalent of John Kerry.

[big bad fab]

Holiday today. So the Big Bad Tracker will be updated tomorrow .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, for the only time I could update it immediately...

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for le Journal du Dimanche, 9-10 juin 2011, 923 RVs among a total sample of 1006

Hollande 26 / Aubry 23
Sarkozy 22 / 21.5
Le Pen 21 / 22
Borloo 6 / 6.5
Bayrou 7 / 8
Hulot 6 / 6
Mélenchon 6 / 6.5
Chevènement 1.5 / 1
NPA candidate 0.5 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Villepin 3 / 3.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

The threat is still here for Sarkozy, but also for Aubry.
Aubry has a real problem with centrist voters.

Here also, Mélenchon is slightly on the rise, all the more that Chevènement is tested and... high in a way.
The big centre mess, with Borloo, Bayrou and Hulot is still high and, this time, Bayrou is ahead.
It's really difficult to follow...

Sarkozy was in a better shape in Harris.
Here, he is again in trouble.

The global scene is very fluid.

Tomorrow, I'll be able to include this poll in my tracker .
And maybe I'll begin a second round tracker .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Pen again on the rise ? The hope will have lasted for short...

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #6 - 13 June 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement (some pollsters give Myriam Martin, but it doesn't change anything, compared to an anonymous "NPA candidate").               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.               

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

13 June Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,67
NPA      0,73
Mélenchon   5,68   
Chevènement   0,41   
Aubry      24,62
Hulot      7,68
Bayrou      6,15
Borloo      7,48
Villepin      3,5
Sarkozy      22,28
Dupont-Aignan   0,77   
Le Pen      20,02

      

      

13 June Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,75   
NPA   0,67   
Mélenchon   5,59   
Chevènement   0,55   
Hollande   26,42   
Hulot   7,71   
Bayrou   5,73   
Borloo   7,08   
Villepin   3,3   
Sarkozy   21,63   
Dupont-Aignan   0,75   
Le Pen   19,82   
      

      

13 June generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,72
NPA      0,69
Mélenchon   5,63   
Chevènement   0,5   
PS      25,70
Hulot      7,7
Bayrou      5,9
Borloo      7,24
Villepin      3,38
Sarkozy      21,89
Dupont-Aignan   0,76   
Le Pen      19,9

      

Big changes this week.      

Le Pen is again on the rise, at 20 everywhere.      
Sarkozy is also on the rise, but adding only a half point doesn't make him safe from Le Pen's threat.      

Aubry is peaking while Hollande is making a very slight progress. Overall, we can say the socialists are stable.   
Mélenchon is again on the rise, but this seems to be only transfers from the unknown candidates from the far left.   

Hulot is at its lowest, like Borloo, in this tracker, whereas the media buzz for both of them is still high.   
We'll have to wait for the Green primary result: if Hulot isn't able to climb above 10 points, it will be hard for him to keep safe through the whole campaign.   
If Borloo hasn't been able to create more interest now, it's doubtable he'll be able to do better in the autumn.   
Bayrou is on the rise again, with no obvious reason.   
The central scene is really incoherent, though the big trend is clear: minus 4 points in 6 weeks, from 25 to 21%.   

Villepin is nearing 3%. He has been dropped by old friends like Goulard. He seems too isolated now, though he has an outrageous access to French medias (is Mélenchon 2 times more present than him on TV ?).   

And let's start a second round tracker, as the pollsters seem to make it more often:   

Aubry   57,75
Sarkozy   42,25

Hollande   59,97
Sarkozy   40,03

No big surprise here.   
Though Sarkozy is a bit less down than some weeks ago, though he is a big campaigner, though the socialists aren't able to reach 30% in the first round, though the overall support for the left isn't amazing,   
Sarkozy has really a huge mountain to climb.   
The anti-Sarkozy feeling is so deep that I really don't believ he could make it.   
It'll be fun in one year to see the result .