France 2012: the official thread

[Math]

Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

Well, it was first supposed to be published today, but it will be tomorrow. And I clearly think these DSK numbers for Hollande and Aubry will be the standards in the next months polls: people don't really vote for a socialist candidate, but mainly against Sarkozy.

[big bad fab]

Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

Well, it was first supposed to be published today, but it will be tomorrow. And I clearly think these DSK numbers for Hollande and Aubry will be the standards in the next months polls: people don't really vote for a socialist candidate, but mainly against Sarkozy.

Sure, but above 30%, it's really surprising.

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for 20 Minutes - RMC - BFM TV, 20-21 June, 825 RVs among a total sample of 1004

PS primaries: how likely is it that you vote ?
Certainly: 16% (-1)
Likely: 18% (-2)
Likely not: 18% (-1)
Certainly not: 45% (+4)

Among those who will likely or certainly vote / among socialists likely or certain to vote (don't know how tiny is this latter group...):

Hollande 34 / 41
Aubry 35 / 37
Royal 13 / 9
Montebourg 4 / 4
Moscovici 3 / 5
Valls 3 / 4
none of them 4 / 0
don't know 4 / 0

Aubry is really surging here, though it's in comparison with an old poll from CSA where Royal was unrealistically high.
Maybe she is surging too early, as her candidacy declaration won't be a surprise any longer.
But it's clear she is closing the gap.

It will be very balanced and polarized: wonderful ! Blood inside the PS !

For the second round:
Hollande 51 / 57
Aubry 42 / 39
don't know 7 / 4
Among socialists, Hollande is strong, but it's in the 2nd round that Aubry has still a margin of progress. A narrower margin is likely (though maybe not like in the 2008 Reims Congress ).

And to be complete and LOL a bit:
Hollande 69 / 82
Royal 23 / 16
don't know 8 / 2

Aubry 68 / 77
Royal 22 / 21
don't know 10 / 2

Who is the most able to beat Sarkozy ?
Hollande 52 / 61
Aubry 29 / 29
Royal 11 / 5
don't know 8 / 5
This is where Aubry is the weakest. And it will of course be a very important criterion.

Who is the closest to your ideas and values ?
Aubry 41 / 39
Hollande 34 / 44
Royal 14 / 11
don(t know 11 / 6
Does this mean that, among those who intend to vote, there are more leftists than centre-leftists ?

What's your forecast winner ?
Hollande 44 / 50
Aubry 30 / 36
Royal 9 / 8
Valls 2 / 2
Montebourg 1 / 0
Moscovici 1 / 0
Again, Aubry has to work on this. But with all the big guns behind her, that's not impossible.

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for 20 Minutes - RMC - BFM TV, 20-21 June, 825 RVs among a total sample of 1004

Do you forecast Sarkozy's reelection ?

Certainly not 33 (+1)
Likely not 33 (-7)
Likely 21 (+4)
Certainly 9 (+3)

Certainly or likely: 60 among rightists (+18), 16 among leftists (+6)

Sarkozy has clearly energized his camp.
But his camp is so diminished that it isn't enough. Far from it.

Hollande 27 / Aubry 23 / Royal 15
Sarkozy 23 / 23 / 24
Le Pen 16 / 16 / 16
Borloo 9 / 10 / 10.5
Hulot 7 / 7.5 / 9
Bayrou 5 / 7 / 8
Villepin 3 / 3 / 4
Mélenchon 7 / 7 / 10
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
NPA 1.5 / 2 / 2
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

Hollande 27 / Aubry 25.5 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 23 / 23 / 24
Le Pen 16 / 16 / 16
Borloo 10 / 11 / 13
Joly 4 / 4 / 5
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 9
Villepin 3 / 4 / 4
Mélenchon 7 / 7 / 8.5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
NPA 1.5 / 2 / 2
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

So... Joly is clearly a weaker candidate for the Greens (remember that under 5%, you don't "make" money from the State...).
She loses votes in favour of the PS candidate and of Borloo.

Borloo is higher than in other polls and Bayrou a bit lower. Again, only one conclusion: the centrist scene is very fluid.
Villepin is definitely down.

Mélenchon is on the rise, it's confirmed, as he is no longer stuck to the 5% threshold.

Apart from Royal (CSA still bhothers to test her... ROFL), the PS candidate makes it to the ssecond round, though Hollande more easily than Aubry.
In this poll, Sarkozy seems far safer than in the IPSOS one, with Le Pen clearly down.

Funny to see that IPSOS seems almost as the CSA of 2007...

[Californian Tony]

2% forecast Valls winning the primary, and 9% Royal ? LOL.

Forecasts for Presidential elections seem less ridiculous than in the previous poll.



Also, I disagree with the primary voters on who is the most able to defeat Sarkozy. I think Hollande's popularity is far less solid than it seems IMO. That might just me my dislike for Hollande combined with paranoia, but let's see.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Rightists can be explained by him energizing his base, but why is it that leftists are more likely to forecast a Sarkozy victory now too? That seems highly counter-intuitive, what with the PS hopefuls gaining in the polls.

[Californian Tony]

     Rightists can be explained by him energizing his base, but why is it that leftists are more likely to forecast a Sarkozy victory now too? That seems highly counter-intuitive, what with the PS hopefuls gaining in the polls.

Most of this probably comes from the fear of seeing the primaries turn into a bitter fight that will end up fragilizing the nominee whoever he/she is (see the Reims Congress for example).

[Hashemite]

     Rightists can be explained by him energizing his base, but why is it that leftists are more likely to forecast a Sarkozy victory now too? That seems highly counter-intuitive, what with the PS hopefuls gaining in the polls.

Leftists know perfectly well the PS' great skills at self-sabotage. And maybe there's a bit of pessimism thrown in.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #8 - 27 June 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. Pollsters haven't tested Boutin and Nihous yet, but they'll probably be included soon.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.               

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

27 June Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,73
NPA      0,88
Mélenchon   6,31
Chevènement   0,24
Aubry      25,28
Hulot      7,26
Bayrou      6,17
Borloo      7,84
Villepin      3,37
Sarkozy      22,01
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen      19,25
      

      

27 June Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,86
NPA      0,73
Mélenchon   6,21
Chevènement   0,34
Hollande      27,68
Hulot      7,25
Bayrou      5,53
Borloo      7,27
Villepin      3,06
Sarkozy      21,60
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen      18,81   
      

      

27 June generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,81
NPA      0,79
Mélenchon   6,25
Chevènement   0,30
PS      26,72
Hulot      7,25
Bayrou      5,78
Borloo      7,50
Villepin      3,18
Sarkozy      21,76
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen      18,99
      

The socialists and Mélenchon are at their highest, with quite big gains in this tracker.
Hollande and Aubry are at 1981-Mitterrandesque scores.
Hollande is still above Aubry, but both of them are now at big first round levels considering presidential elections since 1995.

Panzergirl is at her lowest against Hollande.
Sarkozy, which is a bit down again, remains safe as Marion "Marine" Le Pen is lower too.

Dupont-Aignan and Villepin are at their lowest. It will be interesting to see if Boutin and Nihous will fasten this decrease or not (Nihous for NDA, Boutin for both NDA and Villepin).

I guess the fact that Poutou is now NPA's official candidate won't change anything in the far-left . With Chevènement fading away and increasingly uncertain to have his 500 signatures, Mélenchon will be the only enemy of the socialists on their left.

And as Hulot doesn't seem to steal many votes from the socialists (and will have a huge internal pressure not to tilt too much to the centre...), all seems to be well on the left for the socialists.
Their only problem will only be themselves .
But I really doubt it will be enough as a game-changer to make Sarkozy win.


As for the second round tracker, no change:   

Aubry   57,79
Sarkozy   42,21

Hollande   59,98
Sarkozy   40,02

[Math]

A new Ifop poll (June 21-23rd, sample 937 registered voters):

No real changes since the last wave, but it's interesting to see Joly and Hulot are exactly at the same level, contrary to the above CSA poll. 


With Hollande / Joly

Arthaud 0,5 %
NPA candidate 0,5 %
Mélenchon 7 %
Chevènement 1 %
Hollande 26 %
Joly 6,5 %
Bayrou 6 %
Borloo 7,5 %
Villepin 3 %
Sarkozy 21 %
Dupont Aignan 0,5 %
Le Pen 20,5 % 


With Hollande / Hulot

Arthaud 0,5 % (=)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 6,5 % (+0,5)
Chevènement 1,5 % (=)
Hollande 26,5 %  (+0,5)
Hulot 6,5 % (+0,5)
Bayrou 6 % (-1)
Borloo 7 % (+1)
Villepin 3 % (=)
Sarkozy 21 % (-1)
Dupont Aignan 0 % (-0,5)
Le Pen 21 % (=)

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 16-24 June 2011, sample 470 self-declared socialists among 971 self-declared leftists

among leftist / among socialists
Hollande 37 / 43
Aubry 34 / 34
Royal 13 / 11
Valls 5 / 4
Montebourg 4 / 3
another one 1 / 1
none of them 5 / 3
don't know 1 / 1

Hollande 53 (+1) / 58 (+2)
Aubry 47 (-1) / 42 (-2)

The situation is roughly stabilized.
Hollande is of course the current favourite, being stronger among socialists, among older people and among middle-classes and (oh surprise) lower classes (except unemployed people).
Aubry has a majority only among women, less than 35 years old, CSP+ (), unemployed people.
That is to say Hollande is stronger among people likely to cast REALLY a ballot in the end...

But, of course, the race starts only tomorrow .

If Hollande is able not to slide too much behind Aubry (as she will surge for the next 3 weeks) and to appear quite strong in September, he may be able to overcome her during the hard part of the fight.

Reasonably, she should win, with all the apparatus behind her.
And, on the other hand, the usual rebellious behaviour may harm her more than anticipated.

[big bad fab]

BTW, math, we are all glad to have polls very early, but isn't there a problem to publish them here while they are under embargo, as it seems the case with the recent IPSOS and IFOP ones ?

Well, I know, this website is quite confidential, all the more in France
And it's an American website, so, French laws doesn't apply.
Maybe it's more a business problem than a legal one and, well, it's up to you, as you are an insider, you knwo better .

As Dave isn't here very often (and doesn't bother to read obscure threads ), I wondered just because I know he had already some problems for some stuff unduly published here.


As for the IFOP national poll, it confirms that IPSOS was rather an outlier, though Sarkozy isn't very high and the socialists and Mélenchon are in good shape.

[Californian Tony]

Back and forth, really... I don't imagine one second that Aubry and Hollande will be over 30%, that just can't happen. But that's still quite encouraging.

I'll update my graphs next week.


BTW, was reading an article on Le Monde about Boutin and those ******** journalists call her a "candidate of the centre"... Yeah, she's so moderate... ROFL.

[big bad fab]

She is very social.
And very conservative on values of course.

No, she is obviously not a centrist, even when the centre was slightly "christian"... in the French meaning of the word, honestly, that doesn't say much, just you're from the left... JOC, JAC, JEC and many parts of the MRP.
You know the joke from... Malraux ? I don't remember, but it goes like this:
"Who will be the last communist in France ?
- A Breton priest."

Well, Boutin herself speaks a lot about René Schuman. She is probably very close to him. As the society has evolved since 1950, of course, she is more on the right than Schuman was. But that's coherent, he was a christian-democrat, a real one, and he was quite traditional and conservative too.

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays .
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful (look, they are saying that Aubry is almost winning against Hollande ...)

[Hashemite]

Back and forth, really... I don't imagine one second that Aubry and Hollande will be over 30%, that just can't happen. But that's still quite encouraging.

I'll update my graphs next week.


BTW, was reading an article on Le Monde about Boutin and those ******** journalists call her a "candidate of the centre"... Yeah, she's so moderate... ROFL.

The media seems to think that "centrists" are all those who aren't UMP, PS, PCF or FN.

[Californian Tony]

She is very social.
And very conservative on values of course.

No, she is obviously not a centrist, even when the centre was slightly "christian"... in the French meaning of the word, honestly, that doesn't say much, just you're from the left... JOC, JAC, JEC and many parts of the MRP.
You know the joke from... Malraux ? I don't remember, but it goes like this:
"Who will be the last communist in France ?
- A Breton priest."

Well, Boutin herself speaks a lot about René Schuman. She is probably very close to him. As the society has evolved since 1950, of course, she is more on the right than Schuman was. But that's coherent, he was a christian-democrat, a real one, and he was quite traditional and conservative too.

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays .
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful (look, they are saying that Aubry is almost winning against Hollande ...)

She seems to be far more concerned about gay marriage and abortion than about the fate of unemployeds or the destruction of public services, though. At least original Christian Democrats helped drafting the CNR program... But yeah, if Villepin is a "centrist" too, why not Boutin after all.

I guess it's Robert Schuman you're refering to ?

[Math]

BTW, math, we are all glad to have polls very early, but isn't there a problem to publish them here while they are under embargo, as it seems the case with the recent IPSOS and IFOP ones ?

Well, I know, this website is quite confidential, all the more in France
And it's an American website, so, French laws doesn't apply.
Maybe it's more a business problem than a legal one and, well, it's up to you, as you are an insider, you knwo better .

As Dave isn't here very often (and doesn't bother to read obscure threads ), I wondered just because I know he had already some problems for some stuff unduly published here.

Well, you're right concerning the IPSOS poll, I should have been more cautious even if they changed the due date at the last minute. But I'm sure this Ifop survey was not under embargo when I posted it, even if I still cannot find any mention of it on the web (as you I guess). Bad marketing service probably... All these game changer polls drive me wild

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays .
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful.

It's not that laughable if they're talking about the potential voters of these candidates instead of their own political positions IMO. When the pollsters ask interviewees to place themselves on a left-right scale, Borloo, Villepin and Hulot or Joly supporters are disproportionately on the central position.

[big bad fab]

She is very social.
And very conservative on values of course.

No, she is obviously not a centrist, even when the centre was slightly "christian"... in the French meaning of the word, honestly, that doesn't say much, just you're from the left... JOC, JAC, JEC and many parts of the MRP.
You know the joke from... Malraux ? I don't remember, but it goes like this:
"Who will be the last communist in France ?
- A Breton priest."

Well, Boutin herself speaks a lot about René Schuman. She is probably very close to him. As the society has evolved since 1950, of course, she is more on the right than Schuman was. But that's coherent, he was a christian-democrat, a real one, and he was quite traditional and conservative too.

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays .
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful (look, they are saying that Aubry is almost winning against Hollande ...)

She seems to be far more concerned about gay marriage and abortion than about the fate of unemployeds or the destruction of public services, though. At least original Christian Democrats helped drafting the CNR program... But yeah, if Villepin is a "centrist" too, why not Boutin after all.

I guess it's Robert Schuman you're refering to ?

Oh God, if it were a French forum, this was directly to the Goldmine !

I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

[Californian Tony]

I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

LOL

Oh c'mon, it's not like most French people even remember who was this Schuman guy.

[big bad fab]

I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

LOL

Oh c'mon, it's not like most French people even remember who was this Schuman guy.

For me, it's as important as sugar and salt !!!!

Of course, till I don't put pieces of Schuman in my yogurt, all is well, I guess .

[big bad fab]

BREAKING in the Green primary:

Eva Joly is "ahead" (no number for the moment) in "paper" votes (2000 counted out of around 10000; 15000 votes are electronic ones).

[Math]

BREAKING in the Green primary:

Eva Joly is "ahead" (no number for the moment) in "paper" votes (2000 counted out of around 10000; 15000 votes are electronic ones).

They say 55% for Joly and only 35% for Hulot (still with 2000 ballots), which is really cool IMO.

[Insula Dei]

I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

LOL

Oh c'mon, it's not like most French people even remember who was this Schuman guy.

Except of course those living near the rather prominent Schuman Square in Brussels.

[big bad fab]

BREAKING in the Green primary:

Eva Joly is "ahead" (no number for the moment) in "paper" votes (2000 counted out of around 10000; 15000 votes are electronic ones).

They say 55% for Joly and only 35% for Hulot (still with 2000 ballots), which is really cool IMO.

Now 50-30, with 6000 votes counted, out of 10000 "paper" ones.
I'm not even sure that Internet votes will be better for Hulot (they should, but "old" Greens are really against this guy).

If it's Joly, it's another good news for socialists.
She'll self-destruct the Greens and won't steal many votes. For the negotiations for seats in parliamentarian elections, this is fine for the PS...
And she'll fire at Sarkozy all the time.

[Californian Tony]

Hulot is losing ? Really ? That's so awesome... and beyond any expectation !

Of course there remains electronic votes, and seeing the rumours there have been about them, I fear it could end up badly.