France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #20 - 19 September 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

19 September Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   0,76
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,69
Chevènement   0,35
Aubry   26,20
Joly   5,77
Bayrou   6,63
Borloo   7,21
Villepin   3,30
Nihous   0,35
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,60
Dupont-Aignan   0,76
Le Pen   17,42


19 September Hollande sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,73
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,04
Chevènement   0,18
Hollande   29,91
Joly   6,02
Bayrou   6,29
Borloo   6,59
Villepin   2,91
Nihous   0,18
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,17
Dupont-Aignan   0,67
Le Pen   16,38
   

19 September generic PS candidate sub-tracker
   
Arthaud   0,75
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,30
Chevènement   0,25
PS   28,43
Joly   5,92
Bayrou   6,43
Borloo   6,84
Villepin   3,07
Nihous   0,25
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,34
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
Le Pen   16,80

No new poll, no change, as we've got 5 polls managed exactly the same week.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Only 0.6 for Hollande ? That's getting ridiculous.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fab, the Aubry total adds up to 99.96%. Some missing 1/10000th points somewhere ?

[big bad fab]

The latest polls on second rounds have Hollande at less than 60% and, in the BVA poll, Aubry didn't gain ground but Hollande was slightly down due to Montebourg and Valls rises.

The situation is more and more tense inside the PS and the next debates may well be bloodier.
Hollande isn't so good in debate.

So, I stick to 0.6

As for Aubry sub-tracker, yep, only many 1/100ths rounded in the same way
No "structural" problem.


TNS-SOFRES poll for Canal+, 13-14 September 2011, sample 977

It's more a poll about 2017 or a poll to make us regret there is no primary inside the UMP

Who embodies best the future of the UMP ?

among the whole sample / among self-declared UMPers (don't know the size of this sub-sample):

Fillon 40 / 70
Copé 19 / 35
Baroin 14 / 19
NKM 11 / 14
Bertrand 10 / 17
Pécresse 10 / 17
Dati 10 / 9
Besson 5 / 4
Wauquiez 4 / 2
Le Maire 3 / 4
Morano 3 / 6
Lefebvre 2 / 4
none of them 14 / 5

Of course and unfortunately, it's mostly about name recognition.

Fillon is far too high: he is weak inside the party.
Wauquiez is surprisingly low.
Dati is stupidly high ("future of the UMP" ? ROFL).

Morano and Lefebvre are big jokes and shouldn't have been included in this list,
where Chatel and... Juppé () aren't,
where Alliot-Marie isn't either (though she is now, indeed, sidelined),
where Apparu, Estrosi, Jouanno and Mariani could have been included too, even Bussereau and Novelli.

How happy the leftists must be to be able to vote in primaries: I'm so sad...

[Antonio the Sixth]

How happy the leftists must be to be able to vote in primaries: I'm so sad...

Every side has its advantages and inconvenients. You win 75% of national elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like your prophecy about Karachi is finally realizing.

The question is : will the mass media *coughTF1cough* talk about it ?

[big bad fab]

Looks like your prophecy about Karachi is finally realizing.

Yeah... Bazire... c'est du lourd


CSA poll for BFM TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 19-20 September 2011, 835 RVs out of a whole sample of 1005

Is CSA back to its crappiness of  2007 ?

Hollande 28 / Aubry 27 / Royal 19
Sarkozy 24 / 25 / 26
Le Pen 18 / 19 / 20
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7
Borloo 5 / 5 / 6
Villepin 5 / 5 / 5
Mélenchon 6 / 6 / 8
Joly 4 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 1.5 / 0.5 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

So, suddenly, Panzergirl is up by 3 points in CSA polls ?
Mmmmm... they may be back to their "corrections"...

What is coherent with other pollsters is that Borloo is down a bit and Bayrou a little stronger.
Still no Nihous tested.

What is even "worse" is the numbers for the PS primary. Don't ask for the size of their samples...

Among those certain or likely to vote (14% of the RVs sample) / among self-declared socialists certain or likely to vote (we don't know how many people it means...):
Hollande 34 (-3) / 47 (+2)
Aubry 27 (-4) / 31 (-8) ROFL !
Royal 19 (+3) LOL ! / 9
Montebourg 6 / 4
Valls 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 1
none of them 3 / 1
don't know 6 / 2

Hollande 52 / 57
Aubry 40/ 40

Hollande 66 / 84
Royal 27 / 15

Aubry 66 / 82
Royal 24 / 14

These changes for Hollande, Aubry and Royal in the first round of the primary are a bit ridiculous and it casts a dark light on every other number of this poll... sigh...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Villepin at 5%...

Anyways, the question of media coverage is important : I'll exceptionally watch TF1's "13 heures" to have an idea of what the average ignorant will learn about this story.

[big bad fab]

Villepin at 5%...

Anyways, the question of media coverage is important : I'll exceptionally watch TF1's "13 heures" to have an idea of what the average ignorant will learn about this story.

Well, of course, if you judge based only on Pernaut, Karachi affair won't be one

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pernault did talk about it : wow ! It was only the third news, but still. It must be something really big.

[Umengus]

Looks like your prophecy about Karachi is finally realizing.

Yeah... Bazire... c'est du lourd


CSA poll for BFM TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 19-20 September 2011, 835 RVs out of a whole sample of 1005

Is CSA back to its crappiness of  2007 ?

Hollande 28 / Aubry 27 / Royal 19
Sarkozy 24 / 25 / 26
Le Pen 18 / 19 / 20
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7
Borloo 5 / 5 / 6
Villepin 5 / 5 / 5
Mélenchon 6 / 6 / 8
Joly 4 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 1.5 / 0.5 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

So, suddenly, Panzergirl is up by 3 points in CSA polls ?
Mmmmm... they may be back to their "corrections"...

What is coherent with other pollsters is that Borloo is down a bit and Bayrou a little stronger.
Still no Nihous tested.

What is even "worse" is the numbers for the PS primary. Don't ask for the size of their samples...

Among those certain or likely to vote (14% of the RVs sample) / among self-declared socialists certain or likely to vote (we don't know how many people it means...):
Hollande 34 (-3) / 47 (+2)
Aubry 27 (-4) / 31 (-8) ROFL !
Royal 19 (+3) LOL ! / 9
Montebourg 6 / 4
Valls 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 1
none of them 3 / 1
don't know 6 / 2

Hollande 52 / 57
Aubry 40/ 40

Hollande 66 / 84
Royal 27 / 15

Aubry 66 / 82
Royal 24 / 14

These changes for Hollande, Aubry and Royal in the first round of the primary are a bit ridiculous and it casts a dark light on every other number of this poll... sigh...

Pollster, Jerome Sainte marie, says this time the result of le pen is solid.
http://www.20minutes.fr/presidentielle/792084-sondage-presidentielle-premier-tour-pen-bondit-sarkozy-stagne

ANd her former CSA result was of course an outlier because other polls gave her at 20 %

[big bad fab]

Just to be clear:
CSA was indeed below the others for Panzergirl and was probably wrong in this.
What is worrying is that this sudden and huge correction puts again doubts on CSA (and the numbers on the PS primary only worsen their case).

IFOP seems to be best for the moment (though it's difficult to know which pollster is the best without real results ), IPSOS may be back to a "good" stance and OpinionWay seems surprisingly reasonable.

Time will tell us who we should have believed

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL @ CSA. First they ask people how they would vote, then they set arbitrary numbers in order to "account for underpolling".

[big bad fab]

Usually, I hate popularity polls: they are stupid things; based on them, Kouchner, Yade, Veil or even Besancenot should have been presidents...

But the latest IPSOS monthly poll (published 4 days ago) has something very special:

EVERY politician from the UMP (whether it's Hortefeux or NKM, Guéant or Pécresse: really everybody from any wing) or from other rightist parties (incl. Borloo, Morin, Villepin) is DOWN,

EVERY other politician is UP, whether from the PS, the Greens, the far-left or the FN (only Mélenchon is just stable).

If this doesn't mean something...

At least, I hope that the coming Sarkozy disaster in 2012 will also engulf Copé, Bertrand, Baroin, Chatel, Villepin,
so that we don't face the exact same problems in the future...
Ah, if only we've got only Juppé, Fillon, NKM, Pécresse, Le Maire...
Let's stop shenanigans, let's put money far away, let's be serious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At least, I hope that the coming Sarkozy disaster in 2012 will also engulf Copé, Bertrand, Baroin, Chatel, Villepin,

We do agree on something.

[You kip if you want to...]

Could anyone who's following this more closely tell me a bit about Montebourg? Seems like a decent enough candidate, but i'm failing to find much in the British media. I'd look in the French media, but my French isn't exactly amazing.

[Hash]

Could anyone who's following this more closely tell me a bit about Montebourg? Seems like a decent enough candidate, but i'm failing to find much in the British media. I'd look in the French media, but my French isn't exactly amazing.

Montebourg is one of the most arrogant, egotistical guys out there. He lives for and by media cameras and loves to put on little shows to posture himself. Even by French standards he's a massive egomaniac. That guy is in love with himself and attempts to turn himself into some American-like Obama-icon to the point where it's downright pathetic (stuff like ending his 'campaign ad' with "Je suis Arnaud Montebourg et j'approuve ce message"). He also pathetically puts on that "down-to-earth rural guy" figure and talks like a 70-year old farmer when he's in his constituency. He's also quite a liar: he was for a long time a populist crusader against the cumul, but in 2008 he didn't find it morally reprehensible for him to become president of his department's general council. I've hated his guts since 2007 or so, so I'm biased, but, look at how he acts. It's so fake it's pathetic and he's so arrogant it's crazy.

Policy-wise, he's the most left-wing of the candidates. Unreasonable stuff like shutting down ratings agency, massive tax hikes on big business, banning speculation for French banks or crazy regulations on banks which might be appealing in theory but totally unreasonable and inapplicable.

[You kip if you want to...]

Could anyone who's following this more closely tell me a bit about Montebourg? Seems like a decent enough candidate, but i'm failing to find much in the British media. I'd look in the French media, but my French isn't exactly amazing.

Montebourg is one of the most arrogant, egotistical guys out there. He lives for and by media cameras and loves to put on little shows to posture himself. Even by French standards he's a massive egomaniac. That guy is in love with himself and attempts to turn himself into some American-like Obama-icon to the point where it's downright pathetic (stuff like ending his 'campaign ad' with "Je suis Arnaud Montebourg et j'approuve ce message"). He also pathetically puts on that "down-to-earth rural guy" figure and talks like a 70-year old farmer when he's in his constituency. He's also quite a liar: he was for a long time a populist crusader against the cumul, but in 2008 he didn't find it morally reprehensible for him to become president of his department's general council. I've hated his guts since 2007 or so, so I'm biased, but, look at how he acts. It's so fake it's pathetic and he's so arrogant it's crazy.

I'd sort've picked up on some of that. The whole Ideas and Dreams thing is a bit... eugh. And is the 6th Republic thing serious, or just a cheesy campaign hook like 'Big Society'?

[Hash]

Could anyone who's following this more closely tell me a bit about Montebourg? Seems like a decent enough candidate, but i'm failing to find much in the British media. I'd look in the French media, but my French isn't exactly amazing.

Montebourg is one of the most arrogant, egotistical guys out there. He lives for and by media cameras and loves to put on little shows to posture himself. Even by French standards he's a massive egomaniac. That guy is in love with himself and attempts to turn himself into some American-like Obama-icon to the point where it's downright pathetic (stuff like ending his 'campaign ad' with "Je suis Arnaud Montebourg et j'approuve ce message"). He also pathetically puts on that "down-to-earth rural guy" figure and talks like a 70-year old farmer when he's in his constituency. He's also quite a liar: he was for a long time a populist crusader against the cumul, but in 2008 he didn't find it morally reprehensible for him to become president of his department's general council. I've hated his guts since 2007 or so, so I'm biased, but, look at how he acts. It's so fake it's pathetic and he's so arrogant it's crazy.

I'd sort've picked up on some of that. The whole Ideas and Dreams thing is a bit... eugh. And is the 6th Republic thing serious, or just a cheesy campaign hook like 'Big Society'?

He's been raving about the Sixth Republic for quite some time (2003-2004 or so), and he might be serious about it, but it will not be realized any time soon.

[big bad fab]

Someone called François Mitterrand was elected also to reform deeply the Constitution...

Even Chirac messed it up reformed it more.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #21 - 26 September 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

26 September Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   0,71
Poutou   0,37
Mélenchon   5,75
Chevènement   0,28
Aubry   26,38
Joly   5,61
Bayrou   6,49
Borloo   6,72
Villepin   3,67
Nihous   0,28
Boutin   0,57
Sarkozy   24,68
Dupont-Aignan   0,70
Le Pen   17,79
   

26 September Hollande sub-tracker
   
Arthaud   0,90
Poutou   0,37
Mélenchon   5,24
Chevènement   0,14
Hollande   29,51
Joly   5,59
Bayrou   6,44
Borloo   6,23
Villepin   3,37
Nihous   0,14
Boutin   0,57
Sarkozy   24,12
Dupont-Aignan   0,63
Le Pen   16,75


26 September generic PS candidate sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,82
Poutou   0,37
Mélenchon   5,44
Chevènement   0,20
PS   28,26
Joly   5,59
Bayrou   6,46
Borloo   6,43
Villepin   3,49
Nihous   0,20
Boutin   0,57
Sarkozy   24,34
Dupont-Aignan   0,66
Le Pen   17,16

The only reliable trend nowadays is the decrease of Borloo.
Joly isn't in good shape too, while Villepin and Le Pen are slightly on the rise.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It will be interesting to see if the next polls show a post-Senate bounce (and also how much impact the "Karachigate" will have).

[Niemeyerite]

It will be interesting to see if the next polls show a post-Senate bounce (and also how much impact the "Karachigate" will have).

I suppose I'll move to France if socialists beat Sarko in 2012, and everything goes as expected here and PP wins the GE as they did last May, winning everywhere...

[Iannis]

It will be interesting to see if the next polls show a post-Senate bounce (and also how much impact the "Karachigate" will have).

I suppose I'll move to France if socialists beat Sarko in 2012, and everything goes as expected here and PP wins the GE as they did last May, winning everywhere...

If all the people that, taken by some political frenzy, declared (also in Italy) that they would emigrate in case of defeat, actually had done it, now some country would be half empty and others overcrowded. Needless to say that nothing ever happened

[big bad fab]

OpinionWay-Fiducial poll for Le Figaro and LCI, 23-26 September 2011, sample 2712

sub-samples: 1133 leftist RVs
681 socialist RVs
204 potential voters (18% of the first sub-sample)

Among leftists / among socialists / among potential voters:
Hollande 43 / 46 / 46
Aubry 30 / 33 / 24
Royal 11 / 11 / 13
Montebourg 10 / 6 / 12
Valls 5 / 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 0 / 0
don't know 11 / 5 / 0

Hollande is slightly up or down depending on the category, but globally stable.
Aubry stable.
Royal down.
Montebourg up.
Valls just erases his previous losses.
The effect of the first debate is clear.

2nd round:
Hollande 57 / 57 / 58
Aubry 43 / 43 / 42

44% of Royal voters switch to Hollande and 33% to Aubry : surprising, but the sample is very tiny now...
33% of Montebourg voters to Hollande and 51% to Aubry: more logical.
43% of Valls voters to Hollande and 23% to Aubry.