France 2012: the official thread

[Hash]

Fabulous blog, Fab. I'll be sure to include it on my blogroll.

[Niemeyerite]

Fabulous blog, Fab. I'll be sure to include it on my blogroll.

This, Congratulations and thanks

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fabulous blog, Fab. I'll be sure to include it on my blogroll.

This, Congratulations and thanks

I subscribe. I'll follow this bolg enthusiastically.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #22 - 3 October 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

3 October Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   1,03
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   6,78
Chevènement   0,17
Aubry   26,69
Joly   5,82
Bayrou   6,83
Borloo   7,15
Villepin   3,85
Nihous   0,17
Boutin   0,35
Sarkozy   23,45
Dupont-Aignan   0,53
Le Pen   16,86


3 October Hollande sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,86
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   6,32
Chevènement   0,08
Hollande   30,29
Joly   5,69
Bayrou   6,54
Borloo   6,39
Villepin   3,29
Nihous   0,08
Boutin   0,44
Sarkozy   22,88
Dupont-Aignan   0,49
Le Pen   16,32


3 October generic PS candidate sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,93
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   6,51
Chevènement   0,12
PS   28,85
Joly   5,74
Bayrou   6,65
Borloo   6,69
Villepin   3,52
Nihous   0,12
Boutin   0,40
Sarkozy   23,11
Dupont-Aignan   0,51
Le Pen   16,53


The only big news is that Mélenchon is clearly surging.
We'll see if it's for the long term this time.
Sarkozy is down and is heading back to his mediocre levels of last spring.
The socialist candidates are even stronger and are beginning to be impressive.

[big bad fab]

Fabulous blog, Fab. I'll be sure to include it on my blogroll.

This, Congratulations and thanks

I subscribe. I'll follow this bolg enthusiastically.

Thanks, my friends, but this blog doesn't deserve such enthusiasm.
It's really a humble entertainment for political nerds, nothing else.
All my speculations will probably prove wrong in the end
But, at least, I try not to be too much influenced by the "usual pundits"

[big bad fab]

BVA poll for Le Nouvel Observateur, 30 September-1 October 2011, sample 1009

It was just a "duel" Juppé-Sarkozy: it's for Le Nouvel Obs, after all...

Among the whole sample:
Sarkozy 32
Juppé 57

Among the whole right and the whole centre:
Sarkozy 46
Juppé 48

Among the UMPers:
Sarkozy 59
Juppé 36

Among the MoDem+Nouveau Centre supporters:
Sarkozy 22
Juppé 73

Among the FN supporters:
Sarkozy 36
Juppé 53

Juppé is, ironically, a new Balladur in his positioning: he is the candidate of the centre-right, with not-so-small a support among the extreme-right.
Only the "legitimists" of the UMP support Sarkozy.

Balladur was always vague on the subject of the FN (like Barre in a way).
Juppé isn't, as he is on the so-called chiraquian line. So, it's really surprising to see that disappointment inside the FN is so deep towards Sarkozy that they even prefer Juppé !!!


Corinne Lepage wants to be a candidate: she may have her 500 signatures.
And Jacques Cheminade too, it seems: he won't have them.

The last debate before the 1st round of the PS's open primary is tonight: 20:30 CET on BFM TV and LCP-Public Sénat.
It will be "all against Hollande", though his girlfriend's new victim status may well lessen the level of these attacks. He is really "lucky" in the course of events... and Aubry "a la poisse" !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Last debate in 25 minutes. Hopefully we'll see interesting stuff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

An excellent debate, with all candidates having a pretty decent showing (even Royal wasn't too awful). I think this debate will really benefit the left above all, allowing them to really develop their positions and show to the voters a pretty consistent program (because really, except Montebourg, the programs are quite similar).

As for the "winners", there is none really. Hollande was less good than in the first debate, and at some point he seemed a bit "brouillon". But at the same time Aubry wasn't particularly strong (even though she was good enough) and probably didn't create a particular momentum.

Let's see how things go, but Hollande will most probably win.

[big bad fab]

An excellent debate, with all candidates having a pretty decent showing (even Royal wasn't too awful). I think this debate will really benefit the left above all, allowing them to really develop their positions and show to the voters a pretty consistent program (because really, except Montebourg, the programs are quite similar).

As for the "winners", there is none really. Hollande was less good than in the first debate, and at some point he seemed a bit "brouillon". But at the same time Aubry wasn't particularly strong (even though she was good enough) and probably didn't create a particular momentum.

Let's see how things go, but Hollande will most probably win.

Aubry was very confusing and her conclusion was really bad: she is too stressed and mess up many things.

She has attacked Hollande in a hidden way, but I think she has missed the point: the election isn't for pundits, for political journalists and for piolitical nerds...
She has lost an opportunity.
She wasn't good, really. She was far more precise in the first 2 debates.

Hollande was void, as usual . A little more precise than before. Very cool and quiet. He was mediatically better than in the first 2 debates, though not very brilliant.

Montebourg was the best and Valls was quite good too.

Baylet was messy and seemed tired of the debates.

Royal was inthe repetition of the same things.

The whole debate was boring and was the worst one. The second debate was really the best.

Another big draw, with Hollande winning in such a situation...

1. Montebourg
2. Valls
3. Hollande
4. Aubry
5. Royal
6. Baylet

It's the order tonight, but with very small differences.

It was a debate for nothing...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hell Fab, do we really have to disagree on everything ?

[big bad fab]

I'm afraid yes

Had you watched the second debate, you would think differently about this one, on the boring side of things (and even the messy organization... not because of the candidates, for that matter, but because of Joffrin and Mazerolle who are messy guys !) and also on Martine Aubry.

I still think Hollande has proved he has not enough strength for a face-to-face debate: if she manages to breathe (yes...), to smile (don't ask her too much...), to stop whispering while others are speaking (where was she grown up ? ), to speak clearly and more slowly, she can eat him alive between the 2 rounds...

She is able to lie ("je n'ai jamais dit ça" ROFL) and Hollande doesn't react.
She is able to attack him personally ("gauche molle", "s'asseoir dans le fauteuil de Sarkozy", "présider demain c'est préciser aujourd'hui") and he doesn't react.
She is able to say he spends too much on education hirings and then to spend even more ("revalorisation de tous les enseignants"...) and he doesn't react.

Maybe he'll react if they are only the 2 of them and when he isn't in the same room as Ségolène (it really seems to be a psychological problem for him), but I doubt it.

I hate Aubry but I must acknowledge she is better on content, that's sure.
And Hollande's personality is too weak to preside in a period of crisis.
But, well, I can't "support" an intolerant and stubborn woman who is ideologically very dangerous for France .
Don't ask me more than I can do

[Antonio the Sixth]

Indeed I've not watched the second debate so it's hard for me to tell. But at least compared to the 1st one what I've especially liked is the fact they developed issue in a more approfondite way. Not in the "confrontational" sense as as I've said they all agree on 99% except Montebourg, but more in a "common" way : they clearly and precisely exposed all the disasters caused by Sarkozy and the PS's solutions to fix things. As I've already said, the true winner of this debate is the PS as a whole.

As for Aubry, she's far better on content (if even you acknowledge this, it can't not be true ) and for this reason I think her lead, though smaller, is more solid than Hollande's. It's only a gut feeling though, so I might be wrong (and hope so since Hollande will be the PS's candidate).

[Antonio the Sixth]

A bit late, but here are the updated graphs.

Aubry




Hollande




I'll update them next week and the week after, as these will be the last two trackers before we have the eventual PS candidate.

BTW, Fab, you still put Hollande at 0.6 ? That's getting ridiculous...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways, looks like there was indeed a tiny "post-Senate bounce" (in fact more of a post-Senate drop for Sarkozy) which put both candidates in a very comfortable position. Mélenchon surged this week (probably a side-effect of Montebourg as Fab said), and thus we have him, Borloo and Bayrou virtually tied. Now I'm really curious to see the post-Borloo polls (will they poll Morin ??).

[big bad fab]

OpinionWay poll for LCI and Le Figaro, 5-6 October 2011, 775 self-declared socialists among 1261 self-declared leftists among a whole sample of 3102

Among the leftists, there is a sub-sample of 293 likely voters. Not a bad sample. OpinionWay has adopted an IPSOS policy it seems...

Among leftists / among socialists / among LVs
Hollande 43 / 47 / 49
Aubry 28 / 30 / 34
Royal 11 / 11 / 13
Montebourg 11 / 7 / 10
Valls 6 / 5 / 3
Baylet 1 / 0 / 1

Second round:
Hollande 58 / 59 / 60
Aubry 42 / 41 / 40

Please note that Hollande is always very high in OpinionWay polls (as Montebourg), while Aubry and Royal are higher in CSA polls.

Harris and IFOP have more often Hollande and Aubry high.

IPSOS and BVA are more in the average.

Still, Hollande is of course quite strong, but the positions seem to have stalled now.

Please go to my blog (http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/) to see a graph that I haven't seen on any site .
EXCLUSIVE !
I'm pretty proud

[big bad fab]

OK, guys, here is the graph: all the polls for the French PS primary since DSK affair began !

It's based on LVs when it's possible, otherwise on the sub-sample of leftists.

Of course, it's a bit erratic, but we've got a good idea of the trends.

I bet on 41 for Hollande (yeah, a bit disappointing), 31 for Aubry (so, not dead at all), 14 for Montebourg (he is on the rise), 10 for Royal (only her fanatics), 3 for Valls (a future fine leader for the centre-right ), 1 for Baylet.

I'll probably be completely wrong, but that's what's funny .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fab, what you could do to make the graphs prettier would be to replace rough lines with trendlines based on a polynomial regression. It helps seeing long-term trends rather than statistical noise.

[big bad fab]

I have linear trend and exponential trend, but they add nothing to what you can see by yourself: Hollande slightly up, Aubry down, Montebourg up and Royal slightly down

Now, for a polynomial regression... we are already Friday... Sunday will come soon...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have linear trend and exponential trend, but they add nothing to what you can see by yourself: Hollande slightly up, Aubry down, Montebourg up and Royal slightly down

Now, for a polynomial regression... we are already Friday... Sunday will come soon...

It's stronger than me, I just love pretty graphs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, did you hear about Delanoë ? Praising Aubry, he repeated "courage" and "détermination" at least 5 times ! Hilarious.

[big bad fab]

Harris Interactive poll for LCP, 5-6 October 2011, sample 1855 RVs

14% certain to vote, but 18% among men, 17% among 50 years old and more, 17% among CSP+, 40% among socialists, 31% among Front de Gauche voters, 12% among far-leftists, 18% among Greens, 6% among MoDem voters.

Among leftists / among socialists
Hollande 40 / 50
Aubry 29 / 28
Montebourg 12 / 8
Royal 6 / 6
Valls 5 / 4
Baylet 1 / 1
none of them 7 / 4

The first result is the "good "one, though Harris doesn't give results among those certain to vote.
When you base the numbers only on decided votes, Hollande is at 43 and Aubry at 31: she is not dead, far from it !

In a closed primary, only among PS members, Hollande would really have crushed her !

[Antonio the Sixth]

If the 1st number is the right one, I've some reason not to lose all hope for Aubry.

Also, LOL @ Royal.

[big bad fab]

Go to my blog, Antonio, you'll have your polynomial regression

[Antonio the Sixth]

Go to my blog, Antonio, you'll have your polynomial regression

You didn't see my comments ?

[big bad fab]

Go to my blog, Antonio, you'll have your polynomial regression

You didn't see my comments ?

Yeah but a bit too late.

Does anyone know which channel will be the best to follow ?

I've read Hollande has selected 50 voting points to track: wish we could have the same numbers

We'll have to enjoy this evening and this night, as the election in 2012 may well be less suspenseful.

How I'd have loved to vote tomorrow !