France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

The election will be boring as the socialist candidate will win.
So, better to be interested in all this suspense BEFORE the election .

Even though I think, he'll be a candidate.
When he said he regrets that Delors wasn't candidate in 1995, well, it says all.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

It's not like I care whether or not he runs. Socialists can win without him, and I'd be fully satisfied with either Aubry or him. But with the election aproaching, not even knowing who is our candidate is rather annoying.

[big bad fab]

It's not like I care whether or not he runs. Socialists can win without him, and I'd be fully satisfied with either Aubry or him. But with the election aproaching, not even knowing who is our candidate is rather annoying.

Jospin, 1995 and Royal, 2007 were picked later (sure, they lost , but that wasn't the reason).

Let me enjoy the suspense with the constant rise of Hollande, probably boosted by medias after the 27th of March (cantonales' second round).

Let me enjoy some drame from Royal.

Let me enjoy the possible fight between Fabius and Aubry if she tries to turn around DSK.

Let me enjoy the many governments on paper that will begin to be listed from July.

At least, on the left, this pre-electoral year is very interesting .

[big bad fab]

Hey, look at this, we were just talking about it !

IFOP poll, 24-25 February, sample of 524 leftists among a national sample of 969, with 219 socialists among the 524 leftists:

among leftists (polls of 6-7 Jan., 13-21 Jan., 10-11 Feb. and 24-25 Feb.):
DSK 36 - 41 - 43 - 40
Aubry 20 - 20 - 24 - 17
Royal 15 - 17 - 12 - 17
Hollande 13 - 11 - 11 - 15
Montebourg 7 - 5 - 3 - 4
Valls 4 - 3 - 4 - 4

among socialists only:
DSK 47 - 48 - 46 - 49
Royal 11 - 17 - 14 - 19
Aubry 12 - 17 - 22 - 15
Hollande 18 - 11 - 11 - 15
Valls 4- -2 - 2 - 2
Montebourg 4 - 3 - 3 - 0

So, DSK is still very high: no sign of boredom .
Aubry's rise is stopped, while Hollande is gaining ground and Royal has a chaotic trend, as usual, but is still harmful for someone.
Montebourg has alreadu failed and Valls is at his rate on the right of the PS, like Bockel before him.

What is great to see is results among far-leftists (dont' know the sample):
DSK 19 (tout de même !), Aubry only 29, Royal 23, Hollande 16

Among Besancenot voters in 2007:
DSK 32 (amazing !), Aubry 21, Royal 17, Hollande 20

Among Front de Gauche partisans (teah... the sample may be pretty tiny...):
DSK 27, Aubry 21 (lol), Royal 17, Hollande 20

Among Greens:
DSK 41, Aubry 15, Royal 12 (lol), Hollande 14


Now, if DSK isn't candidate:
Aubry 30 (-7), Hollande 30 (+10), Royal 21 (-1), Montebourg 9 (-1), Valls 8 (+1) among leftists.
THIS is very interesting !

Among socialists: Aubry 34 (-3), Hollande 30 (+7), Royal 25 (+3), Valls 6 (-1), Montebourg 4 (-4)


If Aubry isn't candidate,
among leftists: DSK 46, Hollande 21, Royal 20, Montebourg 7, Valls 4
among socialists: DSK 54 (geez !), Hollande 18, Royal 22, Montebourg 3, Valls 2


Pretty clear, eh ?
It was after "DSK tour in Paris". Of course, it's before Aubry's latest mediatic moves since last Monday, but she is already criticized for stealing the PS project for herself.

DSK are Hollande live with journalists: it always helps .

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

BFM poll which has people talking:

Le Pen (FN) 23%
Aubry (PS) 21%
Sarkozy (UMP) 21%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Joly (EELV) 7%
Villepin (RS) 7%

[Tender Branson]

BFM poll which has people talking:

Le Pen (FN) 23%
Aubry (PS) 21%
Sarkozy (UMP) 21%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Joly (EELV) 7%
Villepin (RS) 7%

Just wanted to post this ...

This was done by Harris Interactive, so I guess this is an Internet poll ?

Did they also poll the 2nd round (couldn't find anything) ?

[Tender Branson]

Not that I want it, but it would be somehow funny if Palin wins in the US in 2012, Le Pen wins in France in 2012 and Strache in Austria in 2013 ...

(The only one with real chances though is Strache)

[wormyguy]

I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

[Insula Dei]

I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

uhm... George Wallace carried the entire south,.....

[True Federalist]

I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

uhm... George Wallace carried the entire south,.....

Not the entire south, only 4 States plus he only got 14% of the vote while doing so.  He might have gotten 23% or more in 1968 if we had a two round system like France, but we don't have such a system and it isn't 1968.

[Sibboleth]

No trolling please. Everyone play nice. Diolch, diolch.

[wormyguy]

I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

uhm... George Wallace carried the entire south,.....

Not the entire south, only 4 States plus he only got 14% of the vote while doing so.  He might have gotten 23% or more in 1968 if we had a two round system like France, but we don't have such a system and it isn't 1968.

This, and I mean in the year 2011, obviously.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

No trolling please. Everyone play nice. Diolch, diolch.

^^^

If this thread derails, I'll lock it.

[Gustaf]

The form of fascism represented by Le Pen has always been stronger in Europe than in the US. There's a reason, after all, for why Hitler was European.

This is especially striking, imo, once you consider that the racism of the US was a product of having a huge black slave population for a long time. Give us in Europe the tiniest number of Jews or Muslims and the torches come out.

[You kip if you want to...]

The form of fascism represented by Le Pen has always been stronger in Europe than in the US. There's a reason, after all, for why Hitler was European.

This is especially striking, imo, once you consider that the racism of the US was a product of having a huge black slave population for a long time. Give us in Europe the tiniest number of Jews or Muslims and the torches come out.

Exactly. Europeans, from East to West, are more racist than Americans, it's just that Americans (more generally Southerners) are stereotypically racist. Racial profiling and all that since 9/11 hasn't helped the American image either.

[You kip if you want to...]

Eugh.

Coup de tonnerre sur la présidentielle ? Selon un sondage réalisé par l'institut Harris Interactive pour «le Parisien» -«Aujourd'hui en France» à paraître ce dimanche, Marine Le Pen arrive en tête des intentions de vote au premier tour de la présidentielle avec 23%. Elle devance Nicolas Sarkozy et Martine Aubry, crédités tous deux de  21%.

A thunder strike in the presidential election? According to a survey released on Sunday by Harris Interactive for "Le Parisien"/"France Today", Marine Le Pen leads voting intentions for the first round of the presidential election, with 23%. She leads Nicolas Sarkozy and Martine Aubry, both credited with 21%.

Again, eugh.

http://www.leparisien.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/sondage-marine-le-pen-en-tete-au-premier-tour-de-la-presidentielle-05-03-2011-1344656.php

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

I wrote this elsewhere, but:

It's probably a publicity stunt for Le Parisien, which isn't exactly a newspaper for intellectuals. Harris, iirc, polls online (and God knows the FN is well represented on teh interwebs) and it's by consequence a crappy pollster which polls when they're paid to do so. They probably deliberately attempted to frame the poll to get some ZOMGZ results, like polling only Aubry. It is still the first poll to place the far-right ahead of everybody else, but unlike most of the French media/world I won't go into mass-panic mode.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

While you're certainly right, that's still pretty damn scary.

[You kip if you want to...]

Will this hurt the government?

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Will this hurt the government?

Absolutely not. People know since decades that Chirac is a corrupt trash, yet they still love him. And in no way people connect Chirac to the current government, to the contrary you will notice Chirac's approval ratings are basically the negative of Sarkozy's.

If any, the government's defeat could hurt Chirac. But even this is doubtful.

[You kip if you want to...]

Will this hurt the government?

Absolutely not. People know since decades that Chirac is a corrupt trash, yet they still love him. And in no way people connect Chirac to the current government, to the contrary you will notice Chirac's approval ratings are basically the negative of Sarkozy's.

If any, the government's defeat could hurt Chirac. But even this is doubtful.

Ohhh, I see.

[big bad fab]

Harris is polling only online, with samples that can be under 800.

They've got a quota method applied only to gender, age, socio-professional class and size of city of residence. Not with past voting, not with partisan preference, not with regional residence.

And their political polling history is poor. Even CSA is now able to put almost rational "corrections" in their results.
(and of course, Hash is right on Le Parisien)

What is true is that
- Sarkozy is slowly declining (he has a double-negative momentum: if he says something on immigration, centre-rightists flee towards DSK or Hollande; if he says something more moderate, Le Pen says he is betraying his 2007 promises to popular voters),

- Aubry is a weak candidate (please read the detailed numbers I've posted on previous page ),

- "Panzergirl" hasn't the under-valuation that her father had; I even think she has a slight over-valuation, because people may use her name to "protest" through opinion polls: it's not a shame to say her name (even more by clicking behind a screen).

And remember she has a tremendous media coverage, that is almost indecent. She's everywhere and on every subject, even in leftist medias. As though medias unconsciously think they should compensate for the fact they mostly boycott her father for so long.

So, no panic-mode after the French Zogby has polled .

[big bad fab]

Le Pen (FN) 23%
Aubry (PS) 21%
Sarkozy (UMP) 21%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Joly (EELV) 7%
Villepin (RS) 7%

To be complete:
Mélenchon 5%
Besancenot 5%
Arthaud 1%
(and well, these "only" 11 points for the whole far left may also explain why Panzergirl is so high)
Morin 1% (when will he drop this idea to be candidate ?)
Dupont-Aignan 1%

And now Harris is announcing it will do another 2 polls: one with DSK as socialist candidate and one with Hollande.
Panzergirl is the winner of the day, but Aubry may well be the loser of the week to come .

[DL]

I would enjoy seeing a second round vote between DSK and LePen with Sarko knocked out after the first round. I guess the only question in that scenario is whether DSK gets 75% or 80%.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

I would enjoy seeing a second round vote between DSK and LePen with Sarko knocked out after the first round. I guess the only question in that scenario is whether DSK gets 75% or 80%.

My fear is that a lot of right-wingers would be more encline to vote for a far-rightist than for a moderate social-democrat like Strauss Khan. I don't know how much of them would, but my guts say DSK could very well fall below 70% in your scenario.