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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 118294 times)
big bad fab
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« Reply #150 on: April 10, 2011, 05:56:15 pm »
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Interesting. So in the UMP it's internal power politics that decides or what?

Mostly Dear Leader decides for himself. Those right-wingers like Villepin or the centrists who don't want him already have created their own parties and they will announce themselves independently of the UMP. The UMP itself, save maybe for the Bible-Thumpin' loon Boutin, is solidly behind Dear Leader.


Boutin has made some noises that she may stick her party to Borloo's future movement.
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« Reply #151 on: April 10, 2011, 06:16:47 pm »
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ViaVoice poll for Liberation, 7-8 April, sample 1015

Wishes of victory (change from one month ago):

DSK 45 (-1)
Hollande 31 (+4)
Fillon 30 (+4) (fine)
Aubry 29 (+2)
Juppé 24 (not polled) (great !)
Sarkozy 23 (+1)
Borloo 22 (+6) (new media story of the moment)
Royal 22 (+4) (not yet entirely dead ?)
Villepin 21 (=) (les Français sont des veaux)
Hulot 19 (+1) (ROFL)
Besancenot 18 (+4) (Besancenot président de la Prépublique française... isn't there something wrong here ?)
Bayrou 16 (=) (LOL at this magnificent result ! Grin)
Marion "Marine" Le Pen 16 (-3) (backwards from the peak ?)
Joly 10 (-2)
Copé 10 (not polled) (ROFL)
Mélenchon 9 (+2) (rising... Tongue)
Valls 8 (=) (not declining... Tongue)
Montebourg 8 (-3) (well... Tongue)
« Last Edit: April 11, 2011, 05:39:32 am by big bad fab »Logged

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« Reply #152 on: April 11, 2011, 05:38:01 am »
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IFOP poll for Le Journal du Dimanche, 7-8 April, sample 957

Who is best placed to represent values and ideas of the center ?

(previous results from January 2011, December 2010, November 2010)

Borloo 37 / 32 / 31 / 24
Bayrou 36 / 41 / 44 / 41
Villepin 19 / 19 / 15 / 23
Morin 7 / 7 / 10 / 9

At least, Borloo may be able to terminate Bayrou and the very idea of a Morin candidacy.
That's a result, after all...

And LOL at this now entrenched idea in French medias and pollsters that Villepin can be a centre or even centre-right candidate...
Just because Sarkozy has a "libérale" and rightist tendency doesn't make Villepin a new Raymond Barre... Roll Eyes
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« Reply #153 on: April 11, 2011, 07:18:41 am »

What I find more annoying is the media playing Villepin up as some sort of 'social Gaullist' in a non-liberal, slightly eurosceptic style. His government's policies were certainly quite 'liberal' and there's nothing 'social gaullist' in him
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« Reply #154 on: April 11, 2011, 07:30:54 am »
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What I find more annoying is the media playing Villepin up as some sort of 'social Gaullist' in a non-liberal, slightly eurosceptic style. His government's policies were certainly quite 'liberal' and there's nothing 'social gaullist' in him

Yeah, I still fail to see how the man who imagined CPE managed to convert himself into a defender of the "modèle social français". LOL French politics...
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« Reply #155 on: April 11, 2011, 03:18:23 pm »
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I really wonder how many times Villepin has been invited to Le Grand Journal, on Canal+, the "moral authority of modern France"....

So funny to see the porno-foot-sarcastic-money making TV machine which was a standard-bearer against CPE now supporting a mad man, just because he is against Sarkozy...
Pathetic, really.

Villepin is just a fake, a grand bourgeois heir (but, after all, all those great spirits are also grand-bourgeois heirs...).
At least, his father had real personal culture ! Tongue
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« Reply #156 on: April 14, 2011, 03:40:43 am »
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LH2 poll for Le Nouvel Observateur, 9-10 April, sample 970

Do you intend to vote in the PS primary ?
yes, certainly 16%
yes, probably 14%
no, probably not 19%
no, certainly not 48%
don't know 3%

LOL ! Imagine the PS with 12 million people coming to vote in October... Cheesy

What is more interesting is that the "yes" is higher for
18-24 years old (42%),
25-34 years old (37%), even if the younger you are, the likelier you are to say something and do the contrary...
income less than 1200 euros (36%)
public sector employees (35%)
i.e. bad numbers for DSK and good ones for... Royal !

Among the whole sample / among people from the left / among socialists:
DSK 32 / 36 / 43
Aubry 15 / 18 / 19
Hollande 14 / 18 / 25
Royal 11 / 12 / 7
Montebourg 2 / 3 / 2
other (non mentioned) 4 / 3 / 0
don't know 22 / 10 / 4

Fascinating to see that Hollande is now in better shape inside the socialist party and among the left voters and to see that it's the same for... DSK !
Aubry hasn't really a comparative advantage here.

And we don't know where Valls is...


They've also tested a possible primary inside the UMP Grin

Among the whole sample / among people from the right / among UMPers:
Fillon 29 / 33 / 31
Sarkozy 28 / 41 / 49
Juppé 14 / 9 / 8
Copé 9 / 8 / 3
other 3 / 1 / 2
don't know 17 / 8 / 7

Even if Fillon isn't ridiculous at all, how stupidly disciplined they are... Sad They should have polled me, damn it ! Wink
LOL at Copé result.
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« Reply #157 on: April 14, 2011, 07:23:42 am »

Nicolas Hulot is running, for some reason. I like how Duflot calls him la chouette.
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« Reply #158 on: April 14, 2011, 11:22:25 am »
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Nicolas Hulot is running, for some reason. I like how Duflot calls him la chouette.

Any good Monsieur Hulot (Jacques Tati) references in French media, or are silly puns like that a British tabloid thing?
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« Reply #159 on: April 15, 2011, 05:11:17 am »
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OpinionWay poll for Le Figaro, 12-14 April, sample 951

Probability to vote in the PS primary:
Among voters from the whole left: 18%
Among socialists: 24%
Among Greens: 8%
Among far-left voters: 11%

OpinionWay reckons that likely voters would be 2 to 2.5 billions, which is far more reasonable than the previous LH2 poll.... Tongue

And probability numbers seem more reliable in detail too: numbers by party (sse above), 20% among men, 16% among women, 25% among more than 50 years old, 11% among less than 50 years old.

Among the whole left / among socialists / among likely voters
(beware: less than 200 for the latter category)

DSK 46 / 51 / 46
Hollande 22 / 21 / 18
Aubry 19 / 18 / 24
Royal 8 / 8 / 9
Montebourg 5 / 2 / 3
don't know 15 / 5 / 7

DSK 52 / 58 / 55
Hollande 28 / 25 / 25
Royal 13 / 13 / 15
Montebourg 7 / 4 / 5
don't know 16 / 7 /10
(no second round here)

Hollande 37 / 40 / 35
Aubry 35 / 36 / 42

Royal 13 / 14 / 14
Montebourg 10 / 5 / 5
Valls 5 / 5 / 4
don't know 23 / 14 / 15

DSK is still strong, and especially among socialists.

Aubry hasn't the momentum in polls and the fact she is on a par with Hollande while being positioned more centrally (both politically and... functionally) in the party isn't really very good... Tongue
BUT she seems to have a stronger core of voters.
And I feel the medias, those days, are a bit in love for Aubry (and Villepin, of course).
Stupid feminist reflex (Aubry, a woman ROFL) ?
Pavlovian anti-Sarkozy reflex (Hulot hasn't had a good media coverage, Villepin is obviously favoured, Aubry is better treated than "horrible social-democrats" DSK and Hollande) ?
Hope this won't last...

I'm surprised Hollande doesn't perform better when Aubry isn't candidate.

And Royal is definitely lost.
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« Reply #160 on: April 15, 2011, 06:23:36 am »
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Good to see DSK still ahead.

Now, for God's sake, please go on and announce your damn candidacy !!!
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #161 on: April 15, 2011, 10:13:44 am »
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Good to see DSK still ahead.

Now, for God's sake, please go on and announce your damn candidacy !!!

He really can't do it before the G8 (26-27 May in Deauville).
Let's be patient Wink.
With Hulot, Borloo, Villepin (and Clearstream), Royal, I think these... what?... 7 weeks will pass very quickly Grin.
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« Reply #162 on: April 21, 2011, 04:52:14 am »
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Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 19-20 April, sample 926

This is to be published tomorrow, so the numbers for the small candidates aren't available now, but it seems Borloo is emerging a bit, with Villepin and Bayrou down. Hulot is a bit higher than Joly and Besancenot a bit lower than usual.

DSK 30 / Hollande 22 / Aubry 21 / Royal 15
Le Pen 21 / 22 / 23 / 23
Sarkozy 19 / 19 / 20 / 19

DSK still high, though a bit less stratospheric (but remember there are both Borloo and Hulot in the list now).
Hollande is safer than Aubry for the 2nd spot (22-19 and 21-20 against Sarkozy).

Of course, Harris Interactive is that pollster which was the first to put Marion "Marine" Le Pen ahead. So take these new results with a grain of salt.

But, again, Harris and Le Parisien are really good sellers, as they are the first to give complete first round polls since the cantonales. Where are the serious ones ? Angry
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« Reply #163 on: April 21, 2011, 05:26:33 am »
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Can someone explain to this complete novice regarding current French politics, what the key differences between DSK, Hollande, Aubry and Royal's platforms are?

From the earlier (much appreciated) write-up and responses since I gather that Royal is some discredited populist on the left of the party, Aubry's seen as a unity leader, and DSK is on the neoliberal - almost Blairite - right? So how about Hollande?

The Right's a fair bit easier to distinguish between.
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« Reply #164 on: April 21, 2011, 07:16:48 am »
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They are originally all from a "responsible" left, but they've all positioned quite differently due to political needs inside the party...

Royal is basically a populist, with social and economic measures tilting towards statism, public intervention, gifts to low-revenue people. But she has also built an image of someone strong on public security and on "values" inside families (though she is also "librul" on gay rights or things like that) and of someone who cares about everyday issues.
She has positioned herself more on the left of the party recently, because the left of the PS has no big leader (Emmanuelli, Hamon) who is viewed as a potential candidate. But they don't like her anyway.
Shortly after having graduated from the ENA, she was a Mitterrand under-minister (thanks to her boyfriend... Hollande) and was moderate at that time.
She is a lunatics, who has lost many of the bigwigs who once followed her.
She is now out and definitely out.

Aubry is a heir (she is Jacques Delors' daughter) and has been in the ENA, National School of Administration. She was between Mauroy and Jospin, so, yes, more on the left of the party, but not terribly.
But she has a leftist image, especially by having created the 35-hour week at work. She pushes for more spendings, by massively hiring young people in low-paid jobs in public structures, for example, in the same way she did in the late 1990s.
And she has used many leftist words recently because it gives her 25% of the party, as Montebourg is low and Hamon isn't candidate.
More important, she is at the political center of the PS and at the functional center of it, by having beaten Royal to become First Secretary in 2008. So, she has a good basis.
But her national polls aren't very good as she is bad in medias. She has a nasty personality in private.

Hollande (another former ENA student) is a former follower of Delors and has always been more a social-democrat. He has a very similar positioning to the one of DSK. He is a fiscal reformer and doesn't want to spend too much.
He has never been a minister but has been First Secretary between 1997 and 2008. He is liked by many PS rank-and-file and because of his sense of humour.
But he is also seen as too smooth: so he has lost weight recently...
He tries to be strong enough to make DSK drop and to grasp his reformist mantle.
But if he succeeds in being stronger than Aubry before June, he may also be able to kill DSK with the support of the left.

DSK is indeed seen as a very, very "libéral" guy, because of his good image among business in 1997-2000, when he was Economics and Finance minister, and because of his job in the IMF.
Still, he was closer to Jospin than to Rocard, first of all, and was initially (when he was economics professor and expert) less moderate than Hollande.
His current platform is, by definition, unknown, though.
He loves women, all the women, and had some problems with this in Washington, but that's more a strength in France...
He loves wines, food, money. The latter may be a problem for many rank-and-file in the left. But against Sarkozy, not so much...
His biggest strength now is that he is only one to be sure to be on the second round. As Marine Le Pen is high, Sarkozy isn't sure to make it to the second round, but Aubry and Hollande have only a small margin of security (Royal is down).
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« Reply #165 on: April 21, 2011, 07:52:36 am »
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Excellent, thanks for that. Smiley
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« Reply #166 on: April 22, 2011, 03:30:50 am »
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Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 19-20 April, sample 926

So here are the complete results:

DSK 30 / Hollande 22 / Aubry 21 / Royal 15
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 23 / 22
Sarkozy 19 / 19 / 20 / 19
Borloo 7 / 8 / 9 / 10
Villepin 3 / 5 / 5 / 6
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Bayrou 4 / 5 / 5 / 7
Hulot 6 / 6 / 5 / 8
Mélenchon 4 / 5 / 5 / 6
Besancenot 4 / 5 / 5 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

So, Borloo deflates Villepin and Bayrou.
Hulot is a bit higher than Joly.
Mélenchon isn't able to go very high.
Besancenot seems a bit weakened, but that may be a bias of Harris.

How fun would it be to see all these candidates just under 5% (the threshold above which the State takes your campaign spendings): Mélenchon, Bayrou, Villepin and especially Besancenot !
How fun !

Borloo is both a problem and a solution for Sarkozy: killing Villepin and Bayrou is unavoidable, but not losing votes is another imperative...

Sarkozy must be praying for another big crisis Grin.
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« Reply #167 on: April 22, 2011, 04:42:22 am »
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Borloo and Hulot in the 5-10 range ? LOL
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #168 on: April 22, 2011, 06:54:28 am »
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Borloo and Hulot in the 5-10 range ? LOL

That's not bad, considering only Marion "Marine" Le Pen has managed to climb above the 10%.

Without Villepin, Borloo would probably be around 10-12.
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« Reply #169 on: April 22, 2011, 07:36:23 am »
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Borloo and Hulot in the 5-10 range ? LOL

That's not bad, considering only Marion "Marine" Le Pen has managed to climb above the 10%.

Without Villepin, Borloo would probably be around 10-12.

I've ceased to be astonished about the people's considerable stupidity : when you consider this factor, Le Pen's vote is easily explainable. On the other hand, Borloo and Hulot are not the kind of candidates who attract the stupid vote (except maybe for a few guys who watch the latter on TV and find him so cool, but that doesn't make 8%).
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
big bad fab
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« Reply #170 on: April 22, 2011, 09:55:36 am »
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You'll meet so many people who think themselves as not influenced by medias... but who think only based on what they've heard in talkshows Wink

You'll meet so many people who say they don't believe any longer in politicians. Ever. Never... but who jump in the first bandwagon that runs near them (Royal, Sarkozy, Bayrou, Le Pen, Bové, Hulot, Mélenchon, Besancenot, Joly, Borloo...) Wink
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« Reply #171 on: April 22, 2011, 06:46:11 pm »
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You'll meet so many people who think themselves as not influenced by medias... but who think only based on what they've heard in talkshows Wink

You'll meet so many people who say they don't believe any longer in politicians. Ever. Never... but who jump in the first bandwagon that runs near them (Royal, Sarkozy, Bayrou, Le Pen, Bové, Hulot, Mélenchon, Besancenot, Joly, Borloo...) Wink

Definately. In the UK, we had those who weren't influence by the media, but hated everyone because they read the Daily Mail. They hated politicians because they were expenses-fiddling, country-hating idiots... but Nick Clegg was okay to them for like a month in 2010.
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« Reply #172 on: April 23, 2011, 11:48:46 pm »
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Were there already any polls showing how much support Marine LePen would get in a run-off against the other candidates ?
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« Reply #173 on: April 24, 2011, 04:19:03 am »
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Were there already any polls showing how much support Marine LePen would get in a run-off against the other candidates ?

For some reason, we haven't had a lot of second round polls for now. Personally, I'd easily see her at 30% against a socialist.
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #174 on: April 24, 2011, 04:58:10 pm »
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Were there already any polls showing how much support Marine LePen would get in a run-off against the other candidates ?

For some reason, we haven't had a lot of second round polls for now. Personally, I'd easily see her at 30% against a socialist.

Yeah, there is no need to poll her as the final result would be her defeat.

BUT, considering the current mood and what I suspect to be a use of opinion polls as an escape valve, a release, she may reach something between 35-40%...
Of course, that wouldn't be the results of 2012, but I see many people ready to support her IF the first line of defence is over...
Be careful...
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