France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 1-10 June 2011, 502 socialists among 1028 leftists among a total sample of 2009

among self-defined leftists / among self-defined socialists
Hollande 36 / 44
Aubry 35 / 36
Royal 14 / 10
Montebourg 6 / 5
Valls 4 / 3
another one 0 / 0
none of them 4 / 2
don't know 1 / 1

second round:
Hollande 52 (-1) / 56 (=)
Aubry 48 (+1) / 44 (=)

Hollande is still ahead, Aubry is coming back: Reuters has a good title here.

second round: Hollande / Aubry
among Left Front voters: 58 / 42 (amazing ! an effect of past premiership of Hollande or an effect of tiny samples ?)
among Greens: 50 / 50 (amazing ! Aubry is on par with Hollande ! probably an effect of nuclear policy)
among far-left voters: 38 / 62 (pretty logical)
among those who voted Besancenot in 2007: 52 / 48 (well... tiny sample, I guess)
among the leftists who voted Bayrou in 2007: 62 / 38 (logical and the strength of Hollande)
among those who voted Royal in 2007: 53 / 47
among the leftists who voted Sarkozy in 2007: 57 / 43

So, the political landscape is quite clear now.
Even if Moscovici is candidate (in a titanesque fight against Valls and Montebourg ), there will be a second round Hollande-Aubry and a rather balanced one.

So, we may expect a big bloody fight,
with Bartolone, Hamon, Cambadélis, Assouline cheating for Aubry, as they did in 2008 for Aubry or Royal (),
with the small staff of Hollande using its leverage on the medias of every kind.

Nothing is sure but, with July-August-September to fight, plus a polarizing second round, the PS may well be in tatters in October.

As far as I'm concerned, I don't believe in this scenario, though. Of course, it won't be the great love, but I think they will be able not to cross a certain line.
Royal is the mad one and she will first fight Hollande, making him a victim, which may be good for him.
And Royal won't be welcomed by Aubry as she is not an asset, so Royal's power of nuisance will be very much lowered.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated. Weird and mostly worrying trends, with Sarko and Le Pen higher... LOL Bayrou. Well, at least the far-lefties fall into total irrelevancy and the sovereignist remain there.

I think it's a bit too early for a second round tracker, personally I'd wait for September before making these conjectures. But that'll still be funny to follow.

Any theory about why in the world the NPA and Arthaud scores are flipped when you switch Aubry with Hollande ? Crazy statistical issues are crazy.

Oh, also. Aubry isn't peaking, she has peaked last week by your tracker. You can never say a candidate is peaking, because once you can see the peak it means it has already started to decrease.

[big bad fab]

My English is quite bad, you know .
Yeah, no "-ing" for the verb "to peak" .

As for the 2nd round, it's indeed too early, but it'll be fun to go back to June when we know the name of the socialist !

[big bad fab]

Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

I hope he will be tested by pollsters as he can steal some votes to Le Pen and to Sarkozy.
Dupont-Aignan is already too low and has supporters more upscale socially.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

That pathetic outfit is still alive ?

[big bad fab]

Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

That pathetic outfit is still alive ?

Expect some reaction from Hash .

[Hash]

Frédéric Nihous is candidate again, for Chasse Pêche Nature Traditions.

I have a candidate to vote for, finally.

[big bad fab]

Opinionway poll for Le Figaro-TF1-LCI, 15-17 June 2011, sample 1334 leftists among a total sample of 3012

without / with Moscovici
Hollande 43 / 42
Aubry 33 / 31
Royal 13 / 13
Montebourg 7 / 7
Valls 4/ 4
Moscovici - / 3

Moscovici's possible candidacy has no real impact...

Hollande is down and Aubry up with this pollster (-6 and +6), but Opinionway was probably overestimating Hollande.
Maybe they are still overestimating him, as Aubry has now a positive buzz in the medias... She is the "new" thing of the moment (how ironic when you see and know her )

(and how ironic to see that Borloo and Aubry are the big question marks of the moment: the 2 alcohol-addicts together )

It will really be a very balanced and contested primary.
A second round is very, very likely if none of the 2 big guns drops before the election day.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Maybe they are still overestimating him, as Aubry has now a positive buzz in the medias... She is the "new" thing of the moment (how ironic when you see and know her )

It's not like Hollande is newer...

[big bad fab]

Maybe they are still overestimating him, as Aubry has now a positive buzz in the medias... She is the "new" thing of the moment (how ironic when you see and know her )

It's not like Hollande is newer...

Well, he has recently reverted to his humourous natural trend: I'm not sure it's a very good thing, especially if there is a schizophrenic difference between rallies (the "kewl" guy) and TV interviews (the boring president-in-waiting).

As I've always said, if DSK wasn't candidate, Aubry would be so central inside the PS that she would become unbeatable.
You don't hear Hamon and Emmanuelli any longer...
Hollande will be bombed every second from late August:
from the left of the party,
from Delanoë,
from so-called left strauss-kahnians,
from Fabius,
from Royal,
from aubryst women.

Of course, he will have the same leverage as against DSK: the isolated outsider against the "machine".
After all, Royal won massively in 2006 with the same tactics.

I think Hollande must keep on talking as if he is already the candidate and ignore Aubry.
And must let all the Aubry followers, who won't be able to shut up (Fabius, Hamon, Emmanuelli, Bartolone, Assouline, Cambadélis soon): with all these specialists of personal attacks, it'll be easy to be a "victim".

Another interesting question is whether a Hulot victory may be a precedent for a Hollande victory: I mean, someone who isn't exactly in the "historical" line of the party but who may be more efficient electorally against Sarkozy and Le Pen.
It will be fascinating to see all these primaries.

It would have been so fun to have Sarkozy, Borloo, Juppé, Villepin, Boutin competing inside the UMP (Allez Alain !)

[Keystone Phil]

I did a little research on these other "center - right" candidates. I didn't think I'd actually cheer for Sarkozy but it seems inevitable...

[Peter the Lefty]

Are Hollande, Aubry, and Royal the only PS candidates?  Could Bertrand Delanoë run? 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are Hollande, Aubry, and Royal the only PS candidates?  Could Bertrand Delanoë run? 

Only Hollande and Aubry have a shot at winning the PS primary. Medias act as if Royal had one too, but they don't even bother for the other guys.

[big bad fab]

Are Hollande, Aubry, and Royal the only PS candidates?  Could Bertrand Delanoë run? 

Only Hollande and Aubry have a shot at winning the PS primary. Medias act as if Royal had one too, but they don't even bother for the other guys.

Manuel Valls is a candidate and Arnaud Montebourg too.

Delanoë is now clearly behind Aubry. I guess he'd be glad to become his Prime minister in 2012...

Pierre Moscovici is hesitating, but he can't do more than 5% in the best of case.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #7 - 20 June 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement (some pollsters give Myriam Martin, but it doesn't change anything, compared to an anonymous "NPA candidate").               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.               

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

20 June Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,64
NPA      0,71
Mélenchon   5,78
Chevènement   0,39
Aubry      24,63
Hulot      7,53
Bayrou      6,18
Borloo      7,37
Villepin      3,43
Sarkozy      22,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,76
Le Pen      20,19


      

      

20 June Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,72
NPA      0,64
Mélenchon   5,66
Chevènement   0,53
Hollande      26,54
Hulot      7,54
Bayrou      5,75
Borloo      7,00
Villepin      3,22
Sarkozy      21,74
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      19,91
   
      

      

20 June generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,69
NPA      0,67
Mélenchon   5,71
Chevènement   0,48
PS      25,77
Hulot      7,53
Bayrou      5,92
Borloo      7,15
Villepin      3,30
Sarkozy      22,00
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      20,02

      

No new poll this week.      

The NPA candidate, Hulot, Borloo and Villepin are at their lowest since the beginning of this tracker.
The socialists, Mélenchon and Sarkozy are at their highest.
Le Pen and Bayrou are on the rise again.

It's a sort of a standby now, with the Green primary at work and with Aubry declaring only in 2 or 3 weeks.

The Greek crisis may test the socialists, with Aubry being torned between "responsability" and her leftist support and with Hollande being too "reasonable".

But, knowing France and French people, the reflex will be to seek for more protection and this crisis may well be worse for Sarkozy than for anyone else, as he isn't seen as "protecting" (and nobody cares about international summits and French world influence...).   

As for the second round tracker, no real change:   

Aubry   57,76
Sarkozy   42,24

Hollande   59,98
Sarkozy   40,02

[big bad fab]

ViaVoice poll for Libération, 16-18 June 2011, sample 1005

Whom would you prefer as Green candidate ?

among the whole sample:
Hulot 52 / Joly 26 / don't know 22

among the 133 self-declared Greens:
Hulot 63 / Joly 28 / don't know 9

133 is tiny, but it's big among a total French "population" of 1005...

It will probably result in a narrower margin, but Hulot seems to be the favourite.


If Hash or Antonio or anyone else wants to make a map of the internal vote of the PCF for their presidential candidate, I've got the results by department.

Mélenchon: 59.12
Chassaigne: 36.82
Dang Tran: 4.07

Dang Tran won only in Haute-Saône, not exactly a big PCF federation.

Chassaigne won in Puy-de-Dôme (over 80 obviously), Allier, Cantal, Ardennes, Mayenne (over 70), Lozère, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Pas-de-Calais, Haute-Marne, Marne, Maine-et-Loire, Orne, Charente-Maritime, Var (over 60), Nord, Somme, Seine-Maritime, Eure, Saône-et-Loire, Rhône, Haute-Garonne (over or near 50), Val-de-Marne (51 against 47)

So he gained old strongholds and some federations with over 1000 ballots cast (Seine-Maritime, Val-de-Marne, Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Rhône, Haute-Garonne),
but Mélenchon was high everywhere and he won big in the South-West and the South-East and in Ile-de-France, with the notable exception of Val-de-Marne. He also won in the small federations all over the centre-west, the centre-east, the north-west.

For Mélenchon, big federations with over 1000 ballots: Bouches-du-Rhône (78), Dordogne (81), Hérault (62), Paris (61), Hauts-de-Seine (65) and of course Seine-Saint-Denis (78).

[Antonio the Sixth]

No new poll, again ?

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week !

[DL]

If the Greens go with Hulot - will their campaign revolve around a Jacques Tati retrospective with screenings of Le Vacance de M. Hulot across France to promote their candidate?

[Math]

No new poll, again ?

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week !

Don't worry, there will be one from CSA and one from Ipsos by the end of the week.

[big bad fab]

Christine Boutin is officially a candidate.

It seems as if she will really try to (I've doubted it for long, but well, she is looking for the 500 signatures now).

Nihous will probably have his signatures (1.15% in 2007).
It's not at all guaranteed for Dupont-Aignan (he didn't succeed in gathering the signatures in 2007) and even for Boutin (she was a candidate in 2002: 1.19%).

Anyway, bad news for Sarkozy... as he is far from safe, due to Le Pen remaining very high despite the fact the medias have had other priorities for some weeks.

As for me, if there is a risk Sarkozy isn't in the 2nd round AND if Aubry is the PS candidate, I'll of course cast a "vote utile" for Sarkozy.
If there is no risk at all AND if Hollande is the PS candidate, of course, I'll support Boutin.
If there is a risk AND if Hollande is the PS candidate, well, that remains to be thought about... In this case, Sarkozy is doomed, so why not voting for your ideas ?
If there is no risk at all AND if Aubry is the PS candidate, well, that remains to be thought about... In this case, Sarkozy needs to have the greatest momentum to beat the old crap

[big bad fab]

Philippe Poutou, former NPA leader in Aquitaine in 2010 regional elections (2.52%) and a member of CGT at Ford factory near Bordeaux, may well be the NPA candidate for 2012.
He is 44 years old but looks more and not very rigorous.

I don't think it will change anything for the NPA: without Besancenot, they will be sidelined.

Of course, there can be jokes about "poutou", a phonetic word for kiss or cuddle, but in a very lax, popular, spoken language .
I doubt it will be enough to be above 1.5% !!!

[Math]

No new poll, again ?

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week !

Don't worry, there will be one from CSA and one from Ipsos by the end of the week.

Seems I was right.

A new poll made by Ipsos (June 18-19th, sample 965 registered voters):

No second rounds tested.


With Hollande

Arthaud 1,5 % (-0,5)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 7 % (+3)
Hollande 32 % (+4)
Hulot 7,5 % (-3,5)
Bayrou 5 % (=)
Borloo 7 % (-2)
Villepin 3 % (=)
Sarkozy 19 % (=)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 17 % (=)

Turnout : 89 %


With Aubry 

Arthaud 1 % (=)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 7 % (+3)
Aubry 30 % (+3)
Hulot 7 % (-4)
Bayrou 5 % (=)
Borloo 8 % (=)
Villepin 4 % (=)
Sarkozy 19 % (-2)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 18 % (+1)

Turnout : 88 %


With Royal 

Arthaud 2 % (=)
NPA candidate 1 % (+ 0,5)
Mélenchon 9,5 % (+3,5)
Royal 19 % (+3)
Hulot 8,5 % (-4,5)
Bayrou 7 % (=)
Borloo 11% (-1)
Villepin 4,5 % (-1,5)
Sarkozy 19 % (=)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 18 % (=)

Turnout : 86 %

[Antonio the Sixth]

Those numbers seem quite far off compared with other ones (socialists in the 30s, really ?).

Also, looks like we have two more jokes in the race...

[big bad fab]

Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

It clearly seems as an outlier (for the moment...).

[Math]

Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

Well, it was first supposed to be published today, but it will be tomorrow. And I clearly think these DSK numbers for Hollande and Aubry will be the standards in the next months polls: people don't really vote for a socialist candidate, but mainly against Sarkozy.