France 2012: the official thread

[Math]

I really hope we'll have other polls before the summer recess, because, otherwise, LH2 will weigh more and more in this tracker until late August...

At last one poll will be released tomorrow or the day after, but it's from BVA, so I don't know if this is exactly a good news.

And there is this one from Ifop (due at 18:00 CEST so this time all is perfectly legal ) :

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 30 June-8 July 2011, sample 570 self-declared socialists among 1053 self-declared leftists (btw I don't know how it is possible to find 1053 leftists
among the 1970 people interviewed, but...).

among leftist / among socialists
Aubry 40 (+6) / 41 (+7)
Hollande 38 (+1) / 42 (-1)
Royal 11 (-2) / 9 (-2)
Valls 5 (=) / 4 (=)
Montebourg 4 (=) / 3 (=)
another one - (-1) / - (-1)
none of them 2 (-3) / 1 (-2)
don't know - (-1) / - (-1)

Second round

Hollande 50 (-3) / 53 (-5)
Aubry 50 (+3) / 47 (+5)

It seems all the undecided are trending to Aubry, so it will be a little harder for Hollande to come back. In the first wave (June 30-July 1st) Aubry is way ahead, and in the second (July 7-8) Hollande is back, and strongly back. I don't know if this is an effect of the catastrophic Aubry launching or statistical noise, but since the two samples are about 500 people each, I think this is worth to notice.

[big bad fab]

Well, it probably means that, in fact, many voters aren't so sure between Aubry and Hollande.
A razor-thin result will be fine for the right, of course...
Anyway, this is a big rise for Aubry: she is regaining all the points she has lost since April.
The problem for her is that she may not be able to maintain this wave until October.

For the moment, I don't know if Aubry's attacks on rumors is a good idea.
Of course, she is at the centre and forces every other socialist candidate to defend her...

But, at the same time, many French people weren't aware of these rumors...
And as many are wrong but at least one is confirmed by many people who have no advantage in it (past addiction to alcohol - which isn't a big deal, BTW), she may be spreading herself rumors she wants to kill....

That's a dangerous game, especially when so many rumors existed on Sarkozy and especially when Borloo's own trend to drink a lot is a subject of open jokes, notably in leftist medias.

We'll see if it's a good thing for her, but I'm not sure.

Hollande may have a problem of its own if Banon says weird things. But, for the moment, he is managing all these delicate things wuite well.

[big bad fab]

IPSOS poll for France Télévision, Radio France, Le Monde, 8-9 July 2011, sample 955

Aubry 29 / Hollande 29 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 22 / 22 / 24
Le Pen 18 / 17 / 18
Borloo 8 / 8 / 11
Bayrou 5 / 5 / 6
Joly 7 / 7.5 / 9
Mélenchon 4.5 / 5 / 7
Arthaud 2 / 2 / 3
Poutou 1 / 1 / 2
Villepin 3 / 3 / 3.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

With LH2 in one direction and IPSOS in the other, they are now closer from each other, except that, in this one, there is no Bayrou surge.

Sarkozy is a bit safer from Le Pen's threat, who was already lower in IPSOS.
But she doesn't fall at 15 or below here.
IPSOS isn't as reliable as in 2007 but I think it's still better than LH2.

Socialists are high but were very high in IPSOS poll already.

Mélenchon's surge seems to have ended.
Joly is a bit higher.
Borloo has stopped his fall.
In the titanesque marketing battle (name recognition) inside the far left, Arthaud is remarkably... "high".

Of course, the big news is that Aubry is on a par with Hollande for the first time since DSK's explosion.
Royal is Royal: I don't understand why pollsters still test her, while they don't bother to include Nihous.

[Californian Tony]

Hollande may have a problem of its own if Banon says weird things. But, for the moment, he is managing all these delicate things wuite well.

Wut ? How would this affect Hollande ?


So the LH2 poll was definitely an outlier... Le Pen still at 17-18% (which isn't catastrophic but still worrying). Bayrou isn't crazily high as in the other poll, but Mélenchon still down.

BTW, apparently Joly has won the runoff with 60% (according to France Inter), which means she basically took all of Hulot's votes. Very good to know.


Oh, and I noticed by updating your tracker that the standing of little candidates is also totally transformed : Chevènement's score is doubled and at its highest level since may 23, Poutou and Arthaud's scores are flipped (in the latter's favor), NDA higher too...

[big bad fab]

Hollande may have a problem of its own if Banon says weird things. But, for the moment, he is managing all these delicate things wuite well.

Wut ? How would this affect Hollande ?

Her lawyer has already said that Hollande was well aware of the problem, though he says that he only knows the "great lines"...
This lawyer is a piece of crap who wants to make his own advertisement, but, with current French medias, even this sh** could affect Hollande.
After all, if Aubry makes all this buzz with rumours, everything could go in any direction, for the moment...

So the LH2 poll was definitely an outlier... Le Pen still at 17-18% (which isn't catastrophic but still worrying). Bayrou isn't crazily high as in the other poll, but Mélenchon still down.

BTW, apparently Joly has won the runoff with 60% (according to France Inter), which means she basically took all of Hulot's votes. Very good to know.


Oh, and I noticed by updating your tracker that the standing of little candidates is also totally transformed : Chevènement's score is doubled and at its highest level since may 23, Poutou and Arthaud's scores are flipped (in the latter's favor), NDA higher too...

Le Choc des Titans

[Californian Tony]

Meh, until now I've heard neither about Aubry's rumours nor about Hollande's. OK, I barely listen France Inter once every 3 days, but I don't think it monopolizes attention as much.

[big bad fab]

BVA poll for RTL, Orange and regional medias, 8-9 July 2011, sample 966

Aubry 28 / Hollande 31 / DSK 20
Sarkozy 24 / 23 / 25
Le Pen 17 / 16 / 18
Borloo 7 / 9 / 10
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 4 / 7
Villepin 4 / 4 / 4
Boutin 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 0 / 0 / 0
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1
Poutou 1 / 0 / 0

No Royal hypothesis, but one with DSK : the latter is more and more "segolenized" .

Anyway, a poll pretty much in line with IPSOS one.
Bayrou is "fine" but not that high anf Panzergirl has lost her clout of the beginning of the year, though standing clearly above 15.
Mélenchon has stopped and Joly doesn't shine.

Another good poll for the socialists.
Hollande is again above Aubry.

What is wonderful with BVA is that we know how the first round voters would vote in the second :

Aubry 58
Sarkozy 42

Hollande 58
Sarkozy 42

DSK 54
Sarkozy 46
DSK for PS candidate !

Well, some numbers aren't surprising:

26% of Le Pen towards Aubry, 45% for Sarkozy
22% of Le Pen towards Hollande, 51% for Sarkozy
usual results for FN voters, with Aubry, who is more on the left, being slightly better, probably among popular electorate

91% of Joly towards Aubry and 6% for Sarkozy
83% of Joly towards Hollande and 6% for Sarkozy
Aubry better than Hollande here
it's high for the socialists, but it's Joly

88% of Mélenchon towards Aubry, 3% for Sarkozy
82% of Mélenchon towards Hollande, 4% for Sarkozy
extreme-left numbers are silghtly better than Mélenchon's

66% of Bayrou towards Aubry, 21% for Sarkozy
72% of Bayrou towards Hollande, 18% for Sarkozy
we already knew Bayrou voters hate Sarkozy, it's confirmed
Hollande better than Aubry, no surprise

33% of Borloo towards Aubry, 60% for Sarkozy
52% of Borloo towards Hollande, 42% for Sarkozy
this is the most amazing result: we've already seen these big losses for Sarkozy among centre-right voters; it's a big weakness
and Hollande is far better at benefiting from it

67% of Villepin towards Aubry, 21% for Sarkozy
47% of Villepin towards Hollande, 34% for Sarkozy
well... this is were tiny samples can't be viewed as very scientific...
not that Villepin voters love Sarkozy (again, no surprise here), but Aubry being better than Hollande ?!?

the most laughable results are the following:
81% of Boutin towards Aubry, 19% for Sarkozy
49% towards Hollande, 47% for Sarkozy
ROFL !
though Aubry, who is married, though divorced, who has a straight talk, who is not a "star" at all and who is Delors' daughter, may please some "values" and pro-European voters, this difference is properly ridiculous


In the same poll:

among the leftists / among the whole sample:
Aubry 35 / 27
Hollande 34 / 31
Royal 11 / 10
Montebourg 4 / 4
Valls 2 / 5
Baylet 2 / 2
none of them 8 / 17
don't know 4 / 4

They have dared to test Baylet !

Another poll where Aubry and Hollande are now on a par.

And another funny hypothesis... (they dare to do this sh** while they aren't testing a second round Aubry-Hollande... ah, French pollsters )

Aubry 28 / 22
Hollande 27 / 25
DSK 19 / 16
Royal 10 / 10
Montebourg 4 / 3
Valls 2 / 5
Baylet 1 / 2
none of them 5 / 13
don't know 4 / 4

[big bad fab]

Meh, until now I've heard neither about Aubry's rumours nor about Hollande's. OK, I barely listen France Inter once every 3 days, but I don't think it monopolizes attention as much.

That's why I think Aubry is overreacting and it may backfire as some people may well search on the Internet, while they weren't aware of this sh** or they didn't bother.
And she clearly uses this, not exactly against the right as everybody says, but to be at the center of the socialist stage again...

It seems that the far-right has launched rumours on her husband being the lawyer of "salafists", on her having a cancer when she punched her own eye, on her being a lesbian (just based on her look I think...).
There is also another rumour which is based on evidence from civil servants who worked in Lille about her addiction to alcohol, probably when she lost the legislative election in 2002. The rest is just usual rumours, this is the only one which can retain the eye: but it may well be a positive rumour if many people find her more humane as she may have had the same problems as them...

As for Hollande, nothing more than Banon's lawyer attack recently.

Of course, all this is now old story: the rumours are already part of French political life for many years:
rumours on Royal and Louis Schweitzer (and other men) in 2007,
on Hollande and Hidalgo in 2007,
on Dati's husbands and Dati's daughter's fathers since 2008 (the list was long and weird: even Aznar !),
on DSK (well...),
on Sarkozy's supposed mistresses (pre-2007 and post-2007) and on Carla's "other" private life,
on Borloo's own near-addiction to alcohol,
on Moscovici's private life,
etc.

But Giscard's, Mitterrand's and Chirac's mistresses were always great rumours...
Mitterrand shortening his teeth, hiding a daughter, being ill (many revealed to be right in his case...).
Pompidou being ill too...

All these rumours aren't from the far-right and the far-left: you'll always find political zombies in each party ready to fight by all means...

Rumours are disgusting, but they belong to human nature, it seems.

[Californian Tony]

I just hope the 2012 campaign will be on actual policies, and not about these kinds of hearsays. But probably that's asking too much to the medias...


Anyways, 81% of Boutin voters for Aubry... ROFL indeed... I wonder how those people will feel if Aubry wins and the government legalizes gay marriage ! (BTW, didn't she also make a law easing abortion during Jospin's days ?)

[Math]

Meh, until now I've heard neither about Aubry's rumours nor about Hollande's. OK, I barely listen France Inter once every 3 days, but I don't think it monopolizes attention as much.

That's why I think Aubry is overreacting and it may backfire as some people may well search on the Internet, while they weren't aware of this sh** or they didn't bother.
And she clearly uses this, not exactly against the right as everybody says, but to be at the center of the socialist stage again...

It seems that the far-right has launched rumours on her husband being the lawyer of "salafists", on her having a cancer when she punched her own eye, on her being a lesbian (just based on her look I think...).
There is also another rumour which is based on evidence from civil servants who worked in Lille about her addiction to alcohol, probably when she lost the legislative election in 2002. The rest is just usual rumours, this is the only one which can retain the eye: but it may well be a positive rumour if many people find her more humane as she may have had the same problems as them...

The rumour I find the most hilarious is the one concerning the nickname Sarkozy is supposed to give to Aubry and her husband, 'Martin et Martine", based on a medieval legend including a Moor in the north of France IIUC. Nobody knows about this legend (and certainly not Sarkozy), and I can't believe one second the UMP people are dumb enough to try this way to link Aubry to Muslims. This is too shrewd (1) for them and (2) to work.

[big bad fab]

Anyways, 81% of Boutin voters for Aubry... ROFL indeed... I wonder how those people will feel if Aubry wins and the government legalizes gay marriage ! (BTW, didn't she also make a law easing abortion during Jospin's days ?)

Yep. 12 weeks.
But, you know, many Catholics in France are leftist ones and very, very tolerant, despite the Church's awful image (as an institution) in French medias...
They only see Jesus as a Gandhi, not as a founder of moral values and of a faith that needs personal efforts.

If I may... that's only personal:
I think there are 4 main trends in French catholicism:

- the vast majority of people still declaring that they are Catholic, while they go to a mass at most for Christmas and Easter (and when grand-daddy died): 80% of French Catholics (who are themselves some 60% of the whole population),

- a majority among Catholics who go regularly to a mass are in fact heirs of JOC-JEC-JAC, the MRP, the Sillon, all the social catholicism (which has recycled itself in Delors and all the moderate socialists of the North-West, many of them "rocardians": 15% of French Catholics or three quarters of the "real" Catholics,
they are the CCFD, Secours Catholique, Emmaüs, Scouts de France crowd, to be simple

- a minority which will be bigger in the future in RELATIVE terms only (as the second category is less and less numerous: they are old, they are the "1968" Catholics in a way), which go to the mass every week, which abides by Vatican laws, but which is pro-European, traditional only on values and family, proud but respectful and very sceptical on capitalism: 4% of French Catholics or one fifth of the "real" Catholics,
they are the Emmanuel, Renouveau, Scouts unitaires, AED, Alliance pour les droits de la vie crowd, to be simple

Boutin is a mix of these 2 categories, as she isn't so rightist on Europe, on social matters, on poverty, on economical system; she is "personnaliste" and she refers to Christian philosophers of the 1920-1950s, like Maritain or Mounnier.

- a tiny minority of "traditionalists" or "tradis" (on religious matters) and "integrists" (i.e. followers of Mgr Lefebvre), which are inside the FN (Bernard Marie/Antony) or very close to it (Club de l'Horloge, MPF): 1% of French Catholics or 5% of "regular" Catholics.

Villiers was somewhere between the 2 last categories, closer and closer to the last one, though.

It's not very precise, but that's quite accurate, I think.

[big bad fab]

Joly 58.16
she'll be the Green candidate
Hulot 41.34

He had 40.22 in the first round. So most of Lhomme and Stoll voters went for Joly.
"Traditional" Greens have rejected Hulot, that's clear.

[Californian Tony]

Joly 58.16
she'll be the Green candidate
Hulot 41.34

He had 40.22 in the first round. So most of Lhomme and Stoll voters went for Joly.
"Traditional" Greens have rejected Hulot, that's clear.

And that's done ! I've always feared that Hulot would somehow magically end up winning (it's a primary, so really nothing is impossible). Now the joke is definitely out (if he runs by himfelf, he would just ridiculize himself).


Your description of French catholics seems pretty interesting and accurate, but I feel you're underestimating the last two categories and overestimating the second. It is a well-known political fact that a strong majority of "true" catholics are right-wing, so I have a hard time seeing 75% of them as social catholics who don't give a damn about social issues.

[big bad fab]

That's not as simple:
you can be a social catholic and vote for the centre right or for Bayrou: these catholics are numerous, believe me.
(Ciotti, Luca and Lefebvre aren't ALL the right, you know ...)

And Sarkozy has clearly lost them, as many are able to vote for Hollande or even Aubry (they already vote for the PS in Brittany or Pays-de-la-Loire: Le Pensec, Josselin, Poignant, but also Ayrault, Monnier (former Angers' mayor), are all examples of this "second left" which was able to woo some social catholics: MRP first, CFDT (and CFTC) spirit, social-democracy with christian past.

They were UDF voters and bitterly regret the old UDF (see how the UMP has problems in the North-West).

[big bad fab]

CSA poll, for BFM TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 11 July 2011, sample 850 RVs out of a total of 1005

Hollande 26 / Aubry 25 / Royal 17
Sarkozy 26 / 27 / 28
Le Pen 16 / 16 / 17
Mélenchon 7 / 6.5 / 8.5
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Bayrou 6 / 6 / 6
Borloo 8 / 9 / 11
Villepin 2 / 2 / 2
Boutin 0.5 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Arthaud 2 / 1 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

Well, well, well...
In this one, this is Sarkozy who is surging a bit. Far above Le Pen, he is now on a par with the socialists (being even above Aubry !?!).

No Bayrou surge. No Mélenchon fall. No Joly effect (but it was tested before her nomination).

This series of 4 polls (LH2, IPSOS, BVA, CSA) may be summarized by saying that there is something moving. But we don't know what.
After all, maybe it's just that French people are eager to begin their holidays and don't care so much about politics .

Sarkozy remains deeply weak and, even though he seems to be less threatened by Le Pen, Panzergirl is still disturbingly high, above 15.
How will he be able to maintain Le Pen lower while trying to bring back all those voters on the centre-right who are happy to answer "Borloo" in opinion polls but who are thinking hard about voting for Hollande (or, at least, to cast a blank ballot in the 2nd round )?

The socialists have managed to clear any other leftist threat:
Mélenchon, if he surges at all, is unable to climb above 7;
Joly is a weak candidate for the Greens;
the Trotskyites have returned to anonymity.

As for Bayrou, he is mostly followed by a small bunch of "extreme-centrists", anti-establishement people who would otherwise abstain. Even if he makes progress, it's on the centre-right, among moderate people who hate so much Sarkozy that they are ready to vote for anybody else. Votes that can be gained by Hollande easily or even by Aubry between the 2 rounds, when she'd call back Daddy .

Still, the left is hardly at 40%. This is not a very high basis considering the weird momentum that often emerges in a presidential campaign.

What is great for the left is that very few voters for the Green candidate seems to "betray" in the 2nd round (usually, it's more 75% for the left; now it seems to be 90%, with Sarkozy grasping almost 0). Among FN voters, it's as usual (50% for the right, 25% for the left, 25% abstaining). And, what is more, they are able to grasp a majority of Bayrou voters and more than a third of centre-right voters.
Sarkozy has started too late his "presidentialization": he should have really strated before the summer of 2010... Even though the left isn't so strong, he may well make Hollande or Aubry win.


In the same poll (beware, it's only among those who are sure or likely to vote in the primaries, though we don't know how many they are):

Among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 34 / 41
Aubry 32 / 41
Royal 16 / 11
Valls 3 / 2
Montebourg 1 / 1
Baylet 1 / 0
none 4 / 0
don't know 9 / 4

The ghost of Reims 2008 is entrenched .

Hollande 48 / 52
Aubry 43 / 42

Hollande 65 / 73
Royal 25 / 21

Aubry 61 / 74
Royal 28 / 23

Hollande is still ahead, but everything is open.

[Californian Tony]

WHAT THE F**K ?

OK, things will end up very badly...

[You kip if you want to...]

It is le PS, after all.

[ZuWo]

Is there a reason for Sarkozy's rise in the latest poll (e.g. positive news about the President, negative news surrounding the Socialists), or should that poll be regarded as completely strange?

[Californian Tony]

Not as far as I know, hence my reaction...

[big bad fab]

Our problem, currently, is that no pollster seems to be coherent with himself over the time and with at least some other pollsters...

CSA was bad in 2007, but it seems slightly better now.

I don't know what to say nowadays.

IPSOS was the best, but has clearly fallen in quality.
IFOP was very good and still seems good, but not as good as before.
SOFRES is clearly down.
BVA, CSA and OpinionWay seems better, but at which level ?
LH2 doesn't seem to have made progress.

As for events that could help Sarkozy, I see none.
I don't dare to say that the new positioning of Sarkozy is already working: being more presidential, being outside the constant flow of news, seeming a bit more moral and humane.
Saying this would be ridiculous, unless we have 3 or 4 polls to confirm it.

Does Greece begin to have an effect ? Why not.
Some French people beginning to be afraid of high spendings and debts and thinking (rightly or wrongly) that Sarkozy would be better to deal with these financial problems.

Wars and foreign policy ? French people don't care about them.

This is a mystery (except if it's just CSA, like Bayrou's surge was just LH2...).
That's what is bad for the socialists, as it can be a deeper change.
But, frankly, Sarkozy is so down... and is so bad a second round candidate now, if you see how badly Borloo's voters agree to support him in the second round, that it is still a shoe-in for the PS.

[Californian Tony]

If things can improve so quickly for him, there's no doubt he has a fair chance to win. And all this even before the primaries ! Now I really have a bad feeling...

[big bad fab]

If things can improve so quickly for him, there's no doubt he has a fair chance to win. And all this even before the primaries ! Now I really have a bad feeling...

It's just one poll, Antonio.
He is really hated, you know .

Well, if I'm trying to convince you that he will lose, now...

[Californian Tony]

If things can improve so quickly for him, there's no doubt he has a fair chance to win. And all this even before the primaries ! Now I really have a bad feeling...

It's just one poll, Antonio.
He is really hated, you know .

Well, if I'm trying to convince you that he will lose, now...

That just means we're both diehard pessimists. Yeah, of course it can be an outlier, but it can also be announcing a trend. We can't know for now...

[Senator MaxQue]

Well, a gradual trend is usually more solid than a strange unexpected big drift.

[JulioMadrid]

My opinion is that he can win in the 1st. round, but he'll have to fight really hard to win in the 2nd round. Aubry may be a better candidate than Hollande. She seems to be more solid. I may be wrong, however. I'm the guy who likes Segolene
But my favourite candidate is Valls (and yes, it's only because he was born in Spain)