France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

As promised !

Aubry :


Hollande :



Clearly one is stronger as the other, but apart from Sarko and the PS candidates the variations seem mostly statistical noise.

I don't entirely agree: there is a trend for Hulot-Joly and Villepin, and there was something towards Mélenchon and then backwards (though I don't understand what ).

The socialists are really good at the moment, though Sarkozy is in a surprisingly good shape.

This new story with the public debt crisis and a new stock exchange krach is good for Sarkozy, sure, but Hollande has well reacted: he is again serious and swift. Of course, nobody is listening in early August, but Aubry is badly silent (or contra tempore, with an article in Libération that was written before S&P's stupid decision).

I don't understand why Sarkozy hasn't planned a referendum on the new budgetary rules... It seems that a UMP congressman has a t last proposed it.
The trap for the left would be very good.
Of course, there would be the risk of a 2005 scenario: the "people" against the elite. Good for Mélenchon but for Panzergirl too.

Anyway, fine graphs again, though a bit more suspense would be good .

[Antonio the Sixth]

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No, I meant the comparison between one graph and the other. All candidates are slightly higher in the Aubry scenario (except Joly) but only marginally so.

There is certainly something going on politically, with all these talks about the debt crisis and all (BTW, I've heard in italian news that some rating agencies were considering to downgrade France, but apparently that wasn't reported in France so far...). But we can't see what exactly is going on because those lazy pollsters are on vacation. That's horribly frustrating.

Hopefully when the actual campaign aproaches we'll switch back to themes like unemployment or fiscality...

Well, it could have been worse. Let me the time to update everything, and I'll give you the graphs...

BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

I've lost all hope in Obama and in democrats after the debt "deal" (once again giving up everything to the crazies). These guys don't represent what I stand for, they're just the GOP's useful idiots. The green party is useless, but at least somewhat matches my political views.

I, on the other hand, still don't get why you wear the avatar of a bunch of brainless, bigoted hacks who would gladly screw their country just to piss off Obama.

Ah yes... we've both forgotten that my blue avatar is French and your red one was American !!!

You know that I'm closer to Lieberman, Clark, Nunn or Warner or even Gore.
I could vote for Romney, but I'm sure that, in 2008, I'd have voted for Obama (because of Palin) and note for the Mac...

No, don't worry, I'm not a tea-partier ! (and Boutin isn't a tea-partier either ).

Yeah, I knew you meant this as "UMP-FR", but, you know, it actually says "R". Of course you don't fit the GOP's mainstream at all. Fortunately.

As for me becoming a French greenie...

[Hash]

I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.

I don't hate the French greens, far from that. That's just not the kind of party I see myself joining.

[big bad fab]

I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.

I don't hate the French greens, far from that. That's just not the kind of party I see myself joining.

We can say that I almost hate them . I don't deny it.

Maybe it's because I have really "practiced" them in Paris some years ago: they were so intolerant, so inhumane in day-to-day work, really... and so utterly ideological and unrealistic (that's not a caricature)... Delanoë (a man that I really dislike) hasn't made the same mistake during his second term: he wasn't forced to give them big portfolios and he sidelined them...

This personal experience, and their positioning on society problems, it's of course too much for me.

Now, politically and electorally speaking, they are in fact misunderstood and, when they win, it's by default. Many people in France still think they are just here to avoid pollution and fight against hunters...
The party is far more on the left than its electorate (though Joly may well find a better coherence between the two, in a way).

Cohn-Bendit is the only one who tried to make them grow up, but it seems as though they are unable to do it.
With a rejuvenated PS and a less aggressive Parti de Gauche, no need for Greens.

As for decentralization, that's indeed a real specific point.
But if a European and regionalist party emerges in the center-right with Borloo, they could be stripped from this specificity !
Errr... yeah, I know, no chance at all, eh ?

[big bad fab]

For the first time, Aubry has called for Daddy (Jacques Delors).
He will be in a sort of studying group on economic and financial crisis...

So, already panic mode for Aubry ?
Well, even if nobody listens in August, Hollande has been indoubtedly better in the last week: his reaction seemed serious and well-informed, swift and quiet at the same time.
She was late and wrote things already out-of-date a week ago.

I think she is wrong to waste Big Dad so early.
She must wait a bit for Hollande to make a mistake or two. He is the one whose fall every media will wait for, now.
The PS "summer university" in La Rochelle may well be better for Aubry, as the apparatus is still controlled by her close friends.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #15 - 15 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

15 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,06
Poutou   0,58
Mélenchon   4,92
Chevènement   0,48
Aubry   26,21
Joly   6,11
Bayrou   7,10
Borloo   8,06
Villepin   2,83
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,61
Sarkozy   23,80
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,62
      

      

15 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,04
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   4,95
Chevènement   0,32
Hollande   28,33
Joly   6,19
Bayrou   6,77
Borloo   7,91
Villepin   2,77
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,58
Sarkozy   23,19
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,02
      

      

15 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,05
Poutou   0,43
Mélenchon   4,94
Chevènement   0,38
PS   27,48
Joly   6,16
Bayrou   6,90
Borloo   7,97
Villepin   2,80
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   23,43
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,26


Only statistical noise this week.
Unfortunately, it will be worse next week .
Pollsters are asleep, polled people on beaches and political maniacs are angry.

Le Point has a funny article on people said to support Aubry in Lozère whereas they support Hollande.
In fact, all the formerly "frêchist" federations are supporting Hollande it seems.
And this is these federations which now accuse Aubryst of shenanigans and manipulations... !

In fact, no socialist has really been courageous enough to tackle the Frêche problem until the very end. And Aubry, like the others (Hollande especially) have never seriously tried to tackle the Marseilles problem either.

The only one who is coherent on this is Montebourg and you see how successful he is currently inside the party .

Anyway, this support of Languedoc-Roussillon local PS federations for Hollande is a big thing, as the turnout there may be high and as they were more Royal supporters in the past (by default in a way).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fab, when does the last poll we've had date back to ? I wonder when we would theoretically run out of data if no new poll comes.

[big bad fab]

We have still 5 polls in our database, but in 2 weeks, we'll have only one .

Yeah, potentially, there will be one week with only one poll... sigh...
(but no risk to have zero poll, as pollsters will be back to business just before September I think)

[big bad fab]

I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.

I don't hate the French greens, far from that. That's just not the kind of party I see myself joining.

We can say that I almost hate them . I don't deny it.

Maybe it's because I have really "practiced" them in Paris some years ago: they were so intolerant, so inhumane in day-to-day work, really... and so utterly ideological and unrealistic (that's not a caricature)... Delanoë (a man that I really dislike) hasn't made the same mistake during his second term: he wasn't forced to give them big portfolios and he sidelined them...

This personal experience, and their positioning on society problems, it's of course too much for me.

Now, politically and electorally speaking, they are in fact misunderstood and, when they win, it's by default. Many people in France still think they are just here to avoid pollution and fight against hunters...
The party is far more on the left than its electorate (though Joly may well find a better coherence between the two, in a way).

Cohn-Bendit is the only one who tried to make them grow up, but it seems as though they are unable to do it.
With a rejuvenated PS and a less aggressive Parti de Gauche, no need for Greens.

As for decentralization, that's indeed a real specific point.
But if a European and regionalist party emerges in the center-right with Borloo, they could be stripped from this specificity !
Errr... yeah, I know, no chance at all, eh ?

http://www.liberation.fr/politiques/01012354582-carnet-de-deroute-du-camp-hulot

An interesting article in Libération with an account from someone inside the Hulot campaign.
Of course, he is more favourable towards Hulot, but he also criticizes him.

And, what is important is about Mamère, Farbias, Coronado, all those old "Green Khmers": that what I wanted to underline when I talked about the very bad side of the Greens.

(BTW, funny to see the name of this guy: Orphelin ! LOL)

[Math]

We have still 5 polls in our database, but in 2 weeks, we'll have only one .

Yeah, potentially, there will be one week with only one poll... sigh...
(but no risk to have zero poll, as pollsters will be back to business just before September I think)

Don't worry, one poll will be published next Thursday. Not from the best pollster, but...

[big bad fab]

We have still 5 polls in our database, but in 2 weeks, we'll have only one .

Yeah, potentially, there will be one week with only one poll... sigh...
(but no risk to have zero poll, as pollsters will be back to business just before September I think)

Don't worry, one poll will be published next Thursday. Not from the best pollster, but...

Great ! Even if it's Harris, LH2, BVA, CSA, we'll be happy

[Antonio the Sixth]

The problem is that such poll will crush all others in terms of ponderation and we'll see sudden and enormous swings... If it's an outlier, it will screw the tracker for a long time...

[big bad fab]

The problem is that such poll will crush all others in terms of ponderation and we'll see sudden and enormous swings... If it's an outlier, it will screw the tracker for a long time...

Just until the second week of September: afterwards, it'll be normalized until the end.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where's the poll in question ?

[big bad fab]

ViaVoice poll for Libération, 18-19 August 2011, sample 1003

Do you wish left's victory ?
Yes 53
No 37

Do you forecast left's victory if the election were today ?
Yes 52
No 38

Though the last question is weird (forecast but for today ), this high level, equal to wishes in fact, is a very strong point for the left.
Anti-sarkozysm is very well entrenched. I don't see how Sarkozy can win.

All the more when you see this:

Would left do better than right in face of the crisis ?
Not better 62
Better 29
(again, a weird question, when you can't answer "worse" , but that would only reinforce the result)

Do you wish X's victory or not ?
Hollande 47 / 50
Aubry 39 / 58
Sarkozy 29 / 68
Bayrou 25 / 71
Borloo 22 / 71
Royal 22 / 75
Villepin 20 / 75
Le Pen 17 / 81
Joly 14 / 79
Valls 13 / 71
Mélenchon 11 / 75
Montebourg 10 / 75

Rejection of smaller candidates is amazing, comapred to Sarkozy's level ! (Borloo, MValls, Montebourg and especially Joly, really very high in negatives)

Of course, the main result is that the socialist duet seems really difficult to beat for Sarkozy and, again and again, Hollande is clearly higher than Aubry.
She had 2 weeks of glory in late June, early July, and has returned to worse levels or simply stood by since then, while Hollande has kept going up, maintaining the gap between them.

Some Aubry's aides are beginning to say that polls are false: they are among people outside the party... but "make no mistake, among those who will really vote, she is far better and even higher than Hollande".
Well, sure, but, consistently, Hollande has been better among "socialists" than among "leftists". And, well, I believed these primaries should have been wide open !
After all, polls of 2006 were pretty accurate about Royal's rise inside the PS.
Of course, one can argue that the polls created the phenomenon, not that the rise was first and the polls second... but it's political reality and momentum that count.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So this is not an actual presidential poll, merely some weird and not particularly useful questions.

[big bad fab]

I've already posted some of them and, well, wishes of victory (and differences with forecasts) are usually good predictors of real results.
The problem is indeed that this poll is quite disappointing in its structure. Some young recruits trying to keep working in August, while big bosses are on the beaches ?


Amazing to hear French medias (especially TVs and radios: it's not about political trend of each media, just about their level of smear-loving) still asking how the possible drop of (penal) charges against DSK could have an impact on PS primaries.

As rightist, I'd be very glad if DSK could put a little mess of his own, but, come on, let's be serious: Hollande and Aubry are now engaged in a duel and almost all leftist voters want only to kill Sarkozy and very well know that DSK is definitely out...

[Antonio the Sixth]

We can say what we want about DSK, but he's intelligent enough to know the best thing he can do regarding French politics nowadays is to shut up. If he does that and if he's clearly innocented (hopefully no for lack of evidence) of the Banon affair as well, he could still play an important role in a PS government. The left needs competent economists like him.

[Math]

So this is not an actual presidential poll, merely some weird and not particularly useful questions.

Don't worry,your long-awaited presidential poll is slowly coming. Thursday I think. And there will be some other primary polls this week, hope they will be more interesting than the Viavoice stuff.

[big bad fab]

Why can't PS leaders shut up about DSK ?

Now, it's like he is a "virgin" again... Well, if you believe Vance Junior is right to drop charges, you should believe him when he says there has been sexual relations and these were likely not wanted by one side...
Frankly, I feel people (and many leftists and socialists too) are now really fed up with this story and with DSK: the backlash may be here for the PS, with the medias trying to keep on this dirty story which they think still help them to sell and so exerting pressure on socialist leaders to speak and speak again about DSK and his poor lil' family.

But why do they agree to be a part of the medias' game (yesterday, some said it was the most important news of the day, above Libya... sigh...) ?
I understand for loony Michèle Sabban or even for loyal Pupponi. I can even understand for Cambadélis, for bad reasons, as what we call a "betrayal" must be hard for him to swallow when he meets DSK again...
But Aubry, Désir, Fabius, Le Guen, Royal, even Hollande (though, again, he is far more careful than Aubry) ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've really not heard them a lot on this topic. And I think that, barring another upset, the "affair" will now finally fade away and we'll get back on more political topics (the Balanced Budget Amendment, the senatorials aproaching, etc...).

Also, where is your tracker ?

[big bad fab]

My tracker tonight
I'm back to work and a bit busy...

First numbers from a Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 17-22 August 2011, sample 1320 RVs

Among leftists / among socialists:
Hollande 42 / 49
Aubry 28 / 30
Royal 9 / 7
Montebourg 5 / ?
Valls 5 / ?
Baylet ? / ?

To be continued... but, Hollande already appears as still gaining ground against both Aubry and Royal (who is now below double-digits ).

[republicanism]

May be a stupid demand, but I didn't pay much attention on French politics the last years: Please explain to me what the political spectrum on the left of the PS looks like these days.

I know that there used to be two relatively strong Trotskyist parties, but one of them joined the new Parti de Gauche, I think.
And what is the "Parti de Gauche" like at all? Who supports the party? And how are the relations between the PdG and the PCF? I remember that they "united" their lists in the regional elections 2010 in a few regions, right?

And will all of the parties on the left of the PS run their own candidates, or is there some ambition to field a candidate supported by several parties?

Thanks in advance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Parti de Gauche is Mélenchon's personal outfit, which has no existence outside of him. It allied with the PCF since 2009 (with a few other random outfits) in a permanent coalition called "Front de Gauche". Basically, the deal between them is give the candidacy to Mélenchon, leave the constituencies to the PCF. Communists bring Mélenchon the party machine necessary to run a campaign, and hope to exploit his charisma in order to regain some ground (or not lose too much) in the French political scene.

The two neotrotskyst parties are the NPA (Besancenot's party created in 2009, which didn't meet as much success as expected and is now totally fading away since Besancenot has announced he won't run in 2012) and LO (Laguiller's old outfit, was never particularly relevant and won't be in 2012 either). None of them are allied with the FG.