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big bad fab
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« Reply #725 on: September 12, 2011, 04:23:49 PM »

2012 Big Bad Tracker #19 - 12 September 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... Wink      


      

12 September Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   0,76
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,70
Chevènement   0,35
Aubry   26,20
Joly   5,77
Bayrou   6,63
Borloo   7,22
Villepin   3,31
Nihous   0,35
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,61
Dupont-Aignan   0,76
Le Pen   17,41




12 September Hollande sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,74
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,05
Chevènement   0,18
Hollande   29,89
Joly   6,02
Bayrou   6,29
Borloo   6,60
Villepin   2,91
Nihous   0,18
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,18
Dupont-Aignan   0,67
Le Pen   16,37

   


12 September generic PS candidate sub-tracker
   
Arthaud   0,75
Poutou   0,33
Mélenchon   5,31
Chevènement   0,25
PS   28,42
Joly   5,92
Bayrou   6,43
Borloo   6,85
Villepin   3,07
Nihous   0,25
Boutin   0,59
Sarkozy   24,35
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
Le Pen   16,79


More or less, we are back to the situation pre-August recess.

Sarkozy is a bit up, Hollande too and Borloo is down in every hypothesis.
Le Pen, Mélenchon and Joly are up or down, depending on the hypothesis.

But Sarkozy's gains are very small and, as Borloo has lost ground, the socialists, especially Hollande, are really in very good shape.

Sarkozy is a bit like McCain '08: whatever the news, whatever he does, every situation or event eventually fires back or simply fades away, while some should normally favour him (Libya, financial crisis, DSK, Guérini,...).

And with a new war inside the right maybe in the making with Robert Bourgi's declarations, the path is even darker for Sarkozy (though I think Bourgi is just trying a personal vendetta against Chirac, Villepin and... Juppé as the latter recently made all he could to sideline him).

Wait a bit and Karachi will re-surface...

President Hollande ? Bah...
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redcommander
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« Reply #726 on: September 12, 2011, 04:41:28 PM »

What's causing Le Pen's surge in second round polling? She's in the high 20's against the Socialist candidates, and if she were to run against Sarkozy, is in the high 30's.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #727 on: September 13, 2011, 04:44:04 AM »

Fab, I think by now you can switch to 0.7/0.3 for Hollande. Not that it matters (I've never followed the generic tracker), but I think that would be a fairer estimate of probabilities. Wink

Anyways, will you switch the ponderation downgrade to 20% after the primaries ? I think that would be fair.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #728 on: September 13, 2011, 04:54:59 AM »

Fab, I think by now you can switch to 0.7/0.3 for Hollande. Not that it matters (I've never followed the generic tracker), but I think that would be a fairer estimate of probabilities. Wink

Anyways, will you switch the ponderation downgrade to 20% after the primaries ? I think that would be fair.

60-40 still seems a likely result for the 2nd round Hollande-Aubry, don't you think ?

I find Hollande a bit too over-confident these days.
I find him less clear and efficient in public meetings.
I think that, anyway, I have to wait for Thursday's debate.

The medias, even many of leftist medias, have tilted towards him in the 2 or 3 last weeks, that's true, but I'd tend to consider this as a sign that Aubry is, on the contrary, able to pull a surprise Tongue.

Though the fact she fled from BFM TV's interview was a very bad point for her.


As for the ponderation, I think I'll indeed switch to 0.2 after the PS primaries. Fair indeed: that'll mean 5 weeks plus the current week, i.e. 6 weeks taken into account in a way.

Of course, nearing the launch of the official campaign (in 2007, February was already very "rocky", but March saw the real stuff beginning), I'll even switch to 0.25.
Except if pollsters don't give us more polls than today Tongue.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #729 on: September 13, 2011, 04:59:15 AM »

Re-posting this

ViaVoice poll for Libération, 8-9 September 2011, 275 self-declared socialists among 501 self-declared leftists among a whole sample of 1007

but with all the numbers in.

Among the whole sample / among leftists / among socialists
Hollande 33 / 40 / 49
Aubry 15 / 22 / 24

Royal 10 / 12 / 9
Montebourg 3 / 2 / 1
Valls 6 / 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 0 / 0
none of them 18 / 10 / 5
don't know 14 / 10 / 7

Montebourg is surprisingly low here, but with so small samples, it may not mean a lot.
Valls is very slightly up.

Hollande might foresee a victory in the first round, but he'd be really too confident.

I'm so eager to see the first "debate" !!!
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #730 on: September 13, 2011, 05:13:55 AM »

Fab, I think by now you can switch to 0.7/0.3 for Hollande. Not that it matters (I've never followed the generic tracker), but I think that would be a fairer estimate of probabilities. Wink

Anyways, will you switch the ponderation downgrade to 20% after the primaries ? I think that would be fair.

60-40 still seems a likely result for the 2nd round Hollande-Aubry, don't you think ?

I find Hollande a bit too over-confident these days.
I find him less clear and efficient in public meetings.
I think that, anyway, I have to wait for Thursday's debate.

The medias, even many of leftist medias, have tilted towards him in the 2 or 3 last weeks, that's true, but I'd tend to consider this as a sign that Aubry is, on the contrary, able to pull a surprise Tongue.

Though the fact she fled from BFM TV's interview was a very bad point for her.


As for the ponderation, I think I'll indeed switch to 0.2 after the PS primaries. Fair indeed: that'll mean 5 weeks plus the current week, i.e. 6 weeks taken into account in a way.

Of course, nearing the launch of the official campaign (in 2007, February was already very "rocky", but March saw the real stuff beginning), I'll even switch to 0.25.
Except if pollsters don't give us more polls than today Tongue.

We're both hadline pessimists, so we always see things in the opposite way. Wink

Anyways, one month before the election, Nate Silver usually translates 5-point leads into 70% odds, so...
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big bad fab
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« Reply #731 on: September 14, 2011, 03:57:33 AM »

LH2 and IFOP had 2 recent polls about probability to vote in the PS open primaries.

In a nutshell,
the older you are, the likelier you know the primaries procedures and the likelier you are to GOTV,
the higher diplomas you have, the likelier...
the higher social and professional category you belong to, the likelier...
the more Parisian or southerner you are, the likelier...
the closer to the PS you are, the likelier...

As for sex, it's less clear: roughly equal for IFOP, the likelier for men for LH2.

Of course, almost all these numbers are good for Hollande, as he is doing better among old people, Parisians and southerners, men, socialists.
Aubry should do better among Greens and among CSP++ (Hollande is better among middle classes), but these are small advantages.

Antonio may be right, after all, on the ponderation of my generic PS candidate sub-tracker.
We'll see what happens tomorrow on TV (remember it's on France 2, so it will be more watched than the next ones on i-Télé and parliamentarian channels - what is more, the second debate is at 6 PM, I think, so not a very good time).

Hollande seems to make too much meetings around France: he may well be tired for his first debate.
He seems a bit messier these days.
And he is on top of polls, so he'll be under everybody's fire, like... uh... Rick Perry Grin Tongue
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big bad fab
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« Reply #732 on: September 15, 2011, 07:27:02 AM »
« Edited: September 15, 2011, 07:28:42 AM by big bad fab »

BVA poll for RTL, Orange and regional press, 7-14 September 2011, sample 2645

Out of this whole sample, you have 402 persons "certain" to vote and 676 persons who may vote (the 402 are included in the 676 from what I've understood).
Globally, out of the whole sample, you've got 1265 leftists.

So...

Among the 402 sample / among leftists in this 402 sample / among socialists in this 402 sample:
Hollande 47 / 48 / 53
Aubry 29 / 31 / 31
Royal 13 / 12 / 10
Montebourg 6 / 6 / 4
Valls 4 / 3 / 2
Baylet 1 / 0 / 0

Among the 676 sample / among leftists in this 676 sample / among socialists in this 676 sample:
Hollande 48 / 49 / 55
Aubry 28 / 29 / 29
Royal 12 / 12 / 9
Montebourg 6 / 6 / 4
Valls 5 / 4 / 3
Baylet 1 / 0 / 0

Among the 1265 leftists:
Hollande 44
Aubry 31

Royal 12
Montebourg 7
Valls 5
Baylet 1

The results are the same as for other pollsters.

Please note that BVA has erased all the "NOTA", "don't know" answers, hence the fact that Hollande is close to or above 50%.

And the internals (no tables, just comments from BVA) are very coherent with the other pollsters:
Hollande is strong among old people, inactive people, employees, socialists and has a slightly better result among those "certain" or more likely to vote.

At this stage, he may be able to pull a result "à la Cristina Kirchner" Tongue.

But, again, maybe he is too high too early. And in front of cameras, he may well be weaker.
Of course, he may not be the only one under fire (after all, Royal has to kill Aubry in order to make it to the 2nd round: Hollande is too far away for her; and Montebourg has to steal the same people that Aubry gathers for the moment); but he is the favourite and so, any other candidate will try to fight with him, and every media will first look at him.

Conversely, the "debate" of tonight is so tightly choreographed that there may be no real change (that's probably Hollande's goal). And the real debate will begin only after more than an hour, when people begin to zap on other channels...
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #733 on: September 15, 2011, 01:41:30 PM »

Primary debate begins ! Smiley
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #734 on: September 15, 2011, 01:49:13 PM »

I might be a hack, but so far Aubry was clearly the best in this initial sequence. She had a clear speech, talked about issues and not about vague terms, called out Sarkozy and made sense.
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Math
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« Reply #735 on: September 15, 2011, 01:59:29 PM »

I might be a hack, but so far Aubry was clearly the best in this initial sequence. She had a clear speech, talked about issues and not about vague terms, called out Sarkozy and made sense.

Well, you're not a hack, just partisan ;-)
I support Hollande and I really believe he is way much stronger so far.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #736 on: September 15, 2011, 02:46:35 PM »

Well, this time I think we will agree Hollande has been great during the "interrogation" phase. He was precise, incisive, focused on issues. I don't know how Aubry will do, but clearly she'll have a hard job beating him. As painful as it is for me to say, kudos.

Otherwise, Montebourg was pretty good. I disagreed with him on most topics, but he exposed his arguments with clarity and intelligence. Baylet wasn't great (well, duh), but he also said what he had to say... Even Royal was vacuous, but not as much as one could fear...
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« Reply #737 on: September 15, 2011, 03:15:12 PM »

She has been like Martine Aubry: serious, clear, knowledgeable, but not very exciting. And the way she talks, with all these hackneyed expressions, exactly the way we can expect from an énarque, it really bores me.
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« Reply #738 on: September 15, 2011, 03:37:17 PM »

Any place to watch some re-stream or something? I want to see this.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #739 on: September 15, 2011, 03:41:22 PM »

Any place to watch some re-stream or something? I want to see this.

Try France 2's website.

Anyways, no big surprise so far. Everyone is making big efforts not to disagree with anybody else.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #740 on: September 15, 2011, 03:49:05 PM »

Aubry just made excellent points on retirements and deficits... and she's tackled Hollande. Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #741 on: September 15, 2011, 04:47:02 PM »

So, in the end, an interesting debate, when we saw overall quite good performances. Nobody failed massively : Montebourg was convincing and made people understand better his ideas (his conclusion was particularly well-thought IMO), Valls kept on his rhetoric without much surprises, Baylet appeared as the likable guy who knows he can't win but advances his ideas with conviction, Ségolène wasn't too much of a disaster. I think Hollande has done really well on the 10 m interview, and also had a decent debate prestation, though not excellent. Aubry was never excellent, but has clearly advanced his position, defended her choices and attacked Hollande (which is what she needs to do, in this position). So, do we know much more about the future winner ? Probably not. I doubt this will change the candidates' standings, but let's wait and see.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #742 on: September 15, 2011, 05:20:49 PM »

Royal is clearly a loser here.
She was incoherent, as usual, seemed under pressure and was unable to be really different.

Valls was probably the best in the debate, but has had a bad conclusion.

Montebourg, the other one (with Royal) who should have put some flames in the debate, was too theoretical and frankly not convincing.

As for Hollande and Aubry, well, they had their good and bad moments. She was better in the middle of the debate, but he was better at the end.
I think this is a draw for both of them.

And, yes, she attacked, but I don't know if those who will GOTV in the primary want to see attacks: Hollande has done well not to counter-attack so aggressively.
Conversely, he is clearly weak when attacked personally: maybe she'll find a cleverer way to attack him in the next debates and, especially, if there is a second round.
I think that, on this point, she did bad in this debate (I mean in a primary context), but that she also proved she'd be better against Sarkozy in a TV debate.

What has shocked me is the way Pujadas was utterly biased towards Aubry:
she hasn't had to reply on DSK because it came too late and had not enough time,
Pujadas ahas attacked Hollande on the 2005 referendum,
but he didn't even tried ti have Aubry answer on the retirement at 60 years old, on which she lied and lied gain one year ago to people who were in the streets (now, she says: "back to 60 but... not for everybody" ! come on !).

Anyway, probably no great effect for this debate.
Except indirectly if Royal goes even more down (though I think the 10-15% that are still supporting her would switch to Montebourg more than Aubry).

Hollande hasn't lost ground, which was his priority.
But Aubry may find a way to hurt him, which lets her some ground to come back.

The next debate will be at 6 PM on i-Télé.
But I don't know for the last one: time and media will of course be very important.
As many people may not bother to watch the other 2, as this one wasn't completely original and fascinating... Tongue
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big bad fab
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« Reply #743 on: September 16, 2011, 02:31:54 AM »

(the last debate will be on BFM-TV, more and more a "trash" TV, at 8.30 PM: so, let's expect blood and maybe a not-so-tiny influence on the final result, though it's on a TV less watched than the big old ones)

So, after having reviewed the debate:

as for the introduction:

1. Valls
2. Hollande
3. Baylet
4. Montebourg
(the last 2 did really badly)

5. Royal
6. Aubry (yeah, she started awfully, a lot under pressure)

as for the interview part:

1. Montebourg (brilliant, clear, energetic)
2. Valls (clear, convincing)
3. Hollande (not so bad: he appeared stronger than usual and with emotion and anger)
(these 3 were clearly better)

4. Baylet
5. Aubry (well, it was better in the end, but it was messy, unclear and utterly un-smiling)
6. Royal (come on... everybody says she has "made progress" since 2007, but where Huh on what Huh she's really our Palin... Wink not managing the language, completely messy, unable to manage her own sentences, very weak on financial questions, forced to look at her paper,...)

as for the debate:

1. Valls (at ease, clear)
2. Aubry (she was better as an attack dog, clearly, and Hollande vascillated too easily)
(these 2 were clearly ahead of the others)

3. Hollande (it was pretty mixed for him: good on drugs and DSK, good by seeming a uniter, not an attacker; but very quickly a lil' boy not daring to answer Big Mamma Aubry; he has clearly a worrying weakness here)
4. Baylet
5. Montebourg (disappointing, too theoretical, unable to be a focus point, he was clearly underperforming after a very good interview)
6. Royal (does she have any credibility left ?)

as for the conclusion:

1. Hollande (at ease, very consensual, very good towards old socialists and leftist voters who want unity and efficiency)
2. Aubry (good on a personal level, at last, clearly relieved it was over, a phrase "j'en ai" very finely put in place)
3. Valls (brilliant though he has hesitated, unfortunately for him, as it was personally good)
4. Montebourg (better than in the debate, but less good than Valls in the personal speech)
(the last 2 missed an opportunity)

5. Baylet
6. Royal (a conclusion that was a good resume of the rest of her TV session: she is so passé, now...)

Overall, it's a draw between Hollande and Aubry.

I was surprised Aubry seemed to try to do what the medias wanted her to do and what many French people who won't GOTV are interested in: fighting.
But, of course, she has revealed Hollande's weakness in personal fighting.
So, that's mixed.

Hollande knew clearly what to say to old voters of the PS (those who will GOTV), but he also was surprisingly weak when Aubry attacked him on budget aims and on education (paradoxically, he was better on nuclear subjects, because she wasn't as clear as she said).
So, that's mixed for him too.

Both Hollande and Aubry weren't excellent, far from it, and had Sarkozy changed his track earlier, he would have had a real chance, because he is a greater campaigner and a breater debater.... but that's too late now.

It was globally very good for Valls, but he is too on the right to be able to gain grounds.
It was globally good for Montebourg, though he was weaker in the debate.
Baylet was happy to be there, but now the PRG will only be known for one thing: legalization of cannabls Grin Tongue What Herriot and Daladier would think !!! Grin

And, of course, Royal has completely lost the night. But, as she is now supported only by her hardocre fans, maybe she won't lose ground in polls... Tongue

So, that's a bad thing for the right:
- Royal down,
- Aubry and Hollande training for the big rendez-vous of 2012,
- many ideas repeated all the night on subjects which many French people don't understand (a "cultural" brainwashing in favour of the left, if you prefer Grin),
- questions by Fabien Namias of quite good quality (Pujadas is a crap and Fressoz too, as usual) and then answers of generally good quality (except from hesitating Royal and loony Baylet)
- two promising guys (Valls and Montebourg) already trained for big media events,
- globally speaking, a unity that still stands,
- no noise from Mélenchon, Joly, Besancenot or Laguiller.

Quite a good night for the PS, really, whatever the medias are now saying on a "boring" TV session.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #744 on: September 16, 2011, 03:29:39 AM »

Yeah, I think the overall impact for the PS is positive, because everybody has made it clear it will be loyal to the winner, nobody threw stupid personal attacks and we had clear ideological distinctions but at the same time no programmatic incompatibilities (well, if it were about Valls vs Montebourg, there would be of course Tongue).

So yeah, a good audicence (about 5 mio. apparently) will likely help improving the image of PS overall. It's doubtful if medias will report this objectively, but anyways that could hardly have been better. As for the candidates themselves, I'd agree with you that it's mostly a tie, with a good Baylet and Montebourg showing (IMO) and a poor Royal performance.
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« Reply #745 on: September 20, 2011, 12:43:31 AM »

BVA poll for Orange and regional press, 16-18 September 2011, sample 2624

(format stoled to fab, sorry)

Out of this whole sample, you have 473 persons "certain" to vote and 723 persons who may vote.
Globally, out of the whole sample, you've got 1301 leftists.

Among the 473 sample:
Hollande 43
Aubry 28
Royal 12
Montebourg 9
Valls 7
Baylet 1

Among the 723 sample
Hollande 45
Aubry 26
Royal 11
Montebourg 10
Valls 7
Baylet 1

Among the 1301 leftists:
Hollande 44
Aubry 28

Montebourg 11 (!!)
Royal 9
Valls 7
Baylet 1


And, on a 914 persons sample of people which listened a part of the debate, was the candidate convincing?
Among the sample/ among people sure of voting / Among people which watched the whole debate
Hollande 64 / 77 / 71
Valls 58 / 64 / 58
Aubry 55 / 76 / 63
Montebourg 52 / 70 / 62
Royal 29 / 46 / 36
Baylet 17 / 25 / 21


So, very good for Valls and Montebourg, bad for Royal, but it seems it is not a surprise. Baylet is still irrelevent.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #746 on: September 20, 2011, 01:59:43 AM »

I've come to the conclusion Aubry is lost. She's not gained any ground and DSK basically ruined all her credibility by admitting they had an agreement (what an asshole).
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« Reply #747 on: September 20, 2011, 03:00:52 AM »

DSK basically ruined all her credibility by admitting they had an agreement (what an asshole).

Well, truth is good, no?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #748 on: September 20, 2011, 03:07:54 AM »

DSK basically ruined all her credibility by admitting they had an agreement (what an asshole).

Well, truth is good, no?

Depends for who. It would be fine if voters weren't idiots by caring about stupid things like whether or not she would have run if DSK had run too.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #749 on: September 20, 2011, 12:02:16 PM »

BVA poll for Orange and regional press, 16-18 September 2011, sample 2624

(format stoled to fab, sorry) on the contrary, fine ! Wink

Out of this whole sample, you have 473 persons "certain" to vote and 723 persons who may vote.
Globally, out of the whole sample, you've got 1301 leftists.

Among the 473 sample:
Hollande 43
Aubry 28
Royal 12
Montebourg 9
Valls 7
Baylet 1

Among the 723 sample
Hollande 45
Aubry 26
Royal 11
Montebourg 10
Valls 7
Baylet 1

Among the 1301 leftists:
Hollande 44
Aubry 28

Montebourg 11 (!!)
Royal 9
Valls 7
Baylet 1


And, on a 914 persons sample of people which listened a part of the debate, was the candidate convincing?
Among the sample/ among people sure of voting / Among people which watched the whole debate
Hollande 64 / 77 / 71
Valls 58 / 64 / 58
Aubry 55 / 76 / 63
Montebourg 52 / 70 / 62
Royal 29 / 46 / 36
Baylet 17 / 25 / 21


So, very good for Valls and Montebourg, bad for Royal, but it seems it is not a surprise. Baylet is still irrelevent.

Well, at least, what I felt after the debate was "good" (Tongue):
Montebourg and Valls winners
draw for Hollande and Aubry
failure for Royal

With Valls and Montebourg up, it's good for Aubry, indirectly, as Hollande is a bit down and as there won't be just one strong third, but 3 of them with whom to negotiate...
And the risk for Hollande is to see the momentum fade away...

Sure, for the moment, if Hollande is above 40 and Aubry below 30, well, the winner in the first round would be clear. But there are still 2 debates, on i-Télé and then BFM-TV, 2 "trash" TVs or, at least, less brezhnevised TVs than France 2.
So, better conditions for Aubry than for Hollande as he has proven worse than her in a real debate.

Hollande hasn't won yet, far from it.

Don't know if DSK's "death kiss" to Aubry will really have an effect.
Sure, the medias ahev begun a negative stage for Aubry, preventing her from talking about anything else, again.
But French people aren't political nerds...

But let's hope the presidential election will be as suspenseful as the primary one. I doubt it, though...
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