France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

IPSOS-Logica poll for Le Monde, Radio France and France Télévisions, 21-26 September 2011, sample 4742

Among the 9% who are "certain" to vote (with definitive choice):

Hollande 44 (61)
Aubry 27 (49)
Royal 13 (43)
Montebourg 10 (49)
Valls 5
Baylet 1
don't know 12

Too bad for Aubry that people are more certain to vote for Hollande...
But, conversely, maybe she has some reinforcements available from Royal or even Montebourg.

In other polls, Hollande has the highest credibility on many policy items and on many behavioural points, except on authority and dynamism: the only way for Aubry to try to weaken him...
And it seems that proposals are now again more important than the ability to beat Sarkozy: again something she can use (Montebourg is already using it).

2nd round:
Hollande 59 (67)
Aubry 41 (60)

Aubry 73
Royal 27

Hollande 75
Royal 25

49% of Royal voters switch to Aubry and 35% to Hollande: here, this is logical !
36% of Montebourg voters to Aubry and 52% to Hollande: well, not here...

Basically, Hollande is still high and favourite, but he still can't reach 50% in a clear way (44% with 12% of "don't know", that may be enough, but probably not) and the mobilization seems to rise among Greens and radical left, hence a better thing for Aubry (or Montebourg !).

Let's see the effect of the 2nd debate, tonight, 18:00 CET, on i-Télé, LCP Assemblée Nationale and Public Sénat (I'm sure you'll be able to watch it, Hash ).

[Antonio the Sixth]

200 is not a representative sample, let alone tinier ones... I'm not saying that because I don't believe polls (they all show roughly the same numbers, so it's evident Hollande is a huge favorite), but those who criticize primary polls have legitimate grounds.

[big bad fab]

Well, Hollande is the winner of tonight's debate.

He wasn't good on ideas and details (as usual ), BUT:

- there was a draw between Aubry, Royal, Montebourg and Valls, because Royal was better, Aubry was less good and they have fought with each other,

- he was always outside the fightings and seemed clear (though he wasn't in fact),

- as nobody else has clearly won (Montebourg wasn't as good as in the first debate), Hollande has won.

The problems of Aubry:
- Montebourg attacked on Guérini and she overreacted (weird...): she has put herself in difficulty,
- as the general trend was "Let's go plain left !!!", she was forced to be herself more on the left and to appear "older" and so, Hollande, who was more moderate, was more central tonight.

Even Baylet was better and it has helped Hollande, as they were the only 2 to seem calm and less negative.

Valls was good in the end and was able to put forward his specificities, BUT not very clearly and in details and, what is more, he was really bad on social VAT, unable to defend the idea after having put it forward courageously.

So, globally:

1. Hollande
2. Montebourg
3. Royal
4. Valls
5. Baylet
6. Aubry

though it was more a general draw than in the first debate, where Royal was a clear loser and Montebourg and Valls clear winners.

There is going to be an after-debate poll from Sofres in half an hour: "americanized" we become

[Antonio the Sixth]

Couldn't watch the debate because of Sciences Po course. Don't know if I4d have watched it anyways, because I don't have I-Télé and didn't really want to watch it online.

[big bad fab]

Couldn't watch the debate because of Sciences Po course. Don't know if I4d have watched it anyways, because I don't have I-Télé and didn't really want to watch it online.

Too bad, you would have liked it. As a socialist, I mean

[Niemeyerite]

Where can I see the results of the Sofres poll?

[big bad fab]

Nowhere for the moment.
They have just read it on TV.

Here are the main numbers I was able to write down:

sample 1800 people who have watched the debate (change before/after the debate):

good image:
Hollande 78 (+8)
Aubry 64 (+7)
Montebourg 62 (+15)
Valls 62 (+13)
Royal 48 (+11)
Baylet 34 (+20)

most convincing:
Hollande 41
Aubry 27
Montebourg 25
Valls 23
Royal 13
Baylet 6

most able to win in 2012:
Hollande 65
Aubry 30
Montebourg 11
Valls 11
Royal 10
Baylet 3

Globally speaking (there were results by themes), each candidate was convincing on themes on which he/she was already strong...

Hollande hasn't made real progress tonight, BUT Aubry is stable or down and Montebourg and Valls are threatening for her, while Royal is out.
So, yes, probably a good night for Hollande.

[Niemeyerite]

Thanks, fab. It was a good night for Hollande because nothing interesting happened. He's still the frontrunner, and Aubry a distant second =(

However, the "most convincing" question has more than 100% of the vote overall xD how's that possible? I hope Hollande is the most convincing for 31% of the people, not 41%...

[big bad fab]

It was probably just "convincing", not "the most convincing".
It wasn't very clear....

[Andrea]

Always from the TNS-Sofres poll

best candidate for presidency

Hollande 44
Aubry 20
Montebourg 12
Valls 14
Royal 8
Baylet 2

most sincere


Hollande 31
Aubry 26
Montebourg 23
Valls 28
Royal 15
Baylet 12

most dinamique

Hollande  24
Aubry 20
Montebourg 34
Valls 37
Royal 18
Baylet 4

most competent

Hollande 53
Aubry 32
Montebourg 17
Valls 18
Royal 13
Baylet 5

most credible on economy and growth

Hollande 48
Aubry 25
Montebourg 22
Valls 18
Royal 13
Baylet 6

most credible on fiscalité and defiction reduction

Hollande 45
Aubry 24
Montebourg 22
Valls 20
Royal  14
Baylet 7

most credibile on law and order (securité)

Hollande  31
Aubry 23
Montebourg 15
Valls 31
Royal  22
Baylet 7

most credible on social protection


Hollande 32
Aubry 39
Montebourg 14
Valls 13
Royal 23
Baylet 9

[Math]

Some others results below. Nothing really surprising, but the "most leftist"/"most rightist" are funny, though. And Baylet is surprisingly high in the whole poll, of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hollande more credible on "social" stuff (unemployment, cost of living...) : that means Aubry is really done.

[Hash]

Just watched a good part of the debate. Clearly, Valls is the only adult on stage and the only candidate who has an honest, pragmatic understanding of the economy. It's really a pity he isn't doing better, because he is what the left needs: a pragmatic, moderate, intelligent, young and reasonable voice. His economic policies are the only ones which I find have a dose of reality and sense, and practically the only ones which are policies which are fit for 2011 and not the 1950s. He's also good on security and immigration. Hollande and Aubry are both terribly boring and stale, but Hollande is credible and sane on fiscal and economic issues but he's generally boring and he has a weird way of talking. Aubry is boring. Baylet is pretty cool and is also pretty reasonable on the issues, but I have a hard time taking any politician with a southern accent seriously.

Montebourg and Royal are both mad lunatics who act like its still 1950. Reindustrialization/protectionism/nationalization and all that failed statism. Seriously? Thankfully those two looney tunes aren't going anywhere, because if they were anywhere near power they would run France into the ground like Mitterrand did in his first two years. My opinion of Montebourg did increase minimally despite all this, as he at least presented his insanity pretty sanely and intelligently. Royal is clearly a psycho, though, and a weird syncretic mix of fraudulent socialist populism and old right nationalism.

[big bad fab]

Imagine if I had written what Hash wrote...

There is also one measure that Royal pushed but got unnoticed: to guarantee minimal pay rise for every worker throughout his/her career !!!
De facto, it's like transforming everybody in a civil servant
Amazing... even more than nationalizations, protectionism or administrative authorization of layoffs.


Final debate on Wednesday next week, on BFM-TV and LCP-Assemblée Nationale-Public Sénat, at 20:30 CET.

I hope Hollande will have prepared a "surprise" for the debate.
Or, more subtle, creating a real event on the day after the debate, to delete every negative effect or demobilization.
We'll see if he has a really professional campaign .

[Niemeyerite]

You can say whatever you want about Royal... BUT I STILL LIKE HER!!!

However, I support Aubry, of course... The Spanish one hasn't got a chance, and Hollande seems to be just OK...

[You kip if you want to...]

You can say whatever you want about Royal... BUT I STILL LIKE HER!!!

She's funny crazy, not crazy crazy. Still vote for her over Sarko and obviously Marine.

[big bad fab]

Always from the TNS-Sofres poll (sample 1859)

best candidate for presidency

Hollande 44 (-4)
Aubry 20 (-3)
Montebourg 12 (+4)
Valls 14 (+2)
Royal 8 (+1)
Baylet 2 (=)

Eventually, this is probably the most interesting result, as it shows Hollande wasn't very good, but neither was Aubry: this is her problem.
Montebourg and Valls are up and she is still not able to gain ground, compared to Hollande.

On the different themes, Hollande has the position of a sort of a strong Romney : maybe he isn't the best each time, but his main adversary is never the same.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shocker : Borloo not running. It looks like he wasn't as "willing" as he made us believe...

So, Fab, what happens now ? Will Morin take his place (at some point he seemed quite willing to run) ? Otherwise, where will his voters go ? Medias keep saying this is wonderful news for Sarkozy, but I doubt all his voters will go to him. A few of those will, but there could be a lot of transfers to Bayrou, Joly or even Hollande. What do you think ?

[big bad fab]

No Internet for me since Friday: a phone cable is cut, not far away from my home... living in the countryside is sometimes.... eh....

So, let's talk about this BREAKING NEWS !!!!

Schivardi won't be a candidate in 2012 and the POI will "concentrate itself on legislative elections".
Good news for Mélenchon.


Oh yes, Borloo won't be a candidate either .
Well, again, I've failed in my prognosis (though, when you know the messy Borloo, that's not really a surprise... but signs were in favour of his candidacy... maybe the not-so-good result of Valérie Létard for the Senate presidency has hastened his decision)

I really don't understand Sarkozy any longer... it's BAD news for him, not good ones...

1) Borloo was an asset, because he could have rallied people to Sarkozy in the second round, not just by calling to GOTV for him, but by being prominent in the medias and, next, appearing as an open, reassuring, moderate, PM-in-the-waiting for Sarkozy.

Now, Sarkozy is even more crushed between Le Pen and... Hollande.
Remember what I kept saying about DSK ? Sarkozy was in a vicious circle between the two, losing the centre-right voters when he spoke on security and immigration, losing the strong right voters when he spoke about Europe and social policies.

He's now in the same trap and the socialist and leftist voters should understand that Hollande is ideally positioned: remember all these polls, with many Borloo voters appealed by Hollande (far more than by Aubry, of course) ? Now, they will be caught by Hollande as soon as in the 1st round.

Hollande is not enthusiasm-prone, but he is the real candidate of the "useful vote".

2) With Borloo out, expect many more polls with Fillon and Juppé hypotheses. There is already one from crap pollster LH2 (I'll publish it later).

And this two will have more support in a time when a lot of noise is made about Sarkozy's illegitimate candidacy.
Of course, as we are now in a really Americanized system (the UMP will have primaries in 2017), the incumbent, even doomed, will be a candidate again.
But Borloo dropping, there will be even more unrest inside the right.

And I'm not even talking about Villepin gaining some points in the polls

3) Morin will think about himself as the new Path Whether he is eventually candidate until the end or not, he is negligible.

What is more, in an already messy centre (radicals not convinced by Borloo; NC split between borlooists like Lagarde, morinists and those in-between mostly concerned about their portfolios in Sarkozy's team like Sauvadet and Leroy; AC split between strict centrists and those open to the NC; etc), Borloo has weakened himself and will weaken the centre even more....

All what is tested now inside the right (trying to create a moderate and social wing inside the UMP) is too slow and too late.
So Sarkozy won't have a moderate candidate beside him to be a complement.

I think he is even more doomed now.

[big bad fab]

Harris Interactive poll for LCP, 28-29 September 2011, 1590 RVs

wishes of victory in the primary:
(among leftists/among socialists)

Hollande 40 / 49
Aubry 28 / 26
Montebourg 12 / 9
Royal 6 / 6
Valls 4 / 5
Baylet 1 / 0
none of them 9 / 5

Royal is clearly down. But you'll see below that IFOP don't put her in 4th place.

convincing in the second debate ("very" or "rather" convincing) / not convincing ("not at all" or "not really"):
Hollande 42 / 33
Aubry 33 / 42
Montebourg 31 / 44
Royal 19 / 56
Valls 33 / 42
Baylet 15 / 60

So, in relative terms, it was neutral for Aubry (though bad in absolute terms) and Hollande, good for Montebourg (though slightly disappointing in absolute terms) and Valls, bad for Royal.

Hollande seems to have cemented a support which didn't decrease even when his "champion" isn't overwhelmingly good.


IFOP poll for Le Journal du Dimanche, 15-16 September, 22-23 September, 29-30 September 2011, 782 self-declared socialists out of 1434 self-declared leftists out of a whole sample of 2878

among leftists / among leftists certain to vote / among socialists

Hollande 42 / 46 / 51 (and please note the 3rd wave is the best for him)
Aubry 27 / 26 / 26 (stable also through the 3 waves)
Royal 11 / 11 / 9 (the 3rd wave is her worse one)
Montebourg 8 / 7 / 5 (not really up, but he is at 9 in the 3rd wave, on par with Royal)
Valls 5 / 5 / 5 (stable also through the 3 waves)
Baylet 1 / 1 / 1
none of them 5 / 2 / 2
don't know 1 / 2 / 1

Like in the Harris poll, I don't give you the internals, but it's as usual.

So, Hollande is, as usual again, stronger among those more likely to vote and Aubry isn't able to come back, it seems.
More and more, her last chance will be the debate between the 2 rounds, as she is better at this.

Of course, samples are tiny, open primaries weren't polled until now (2006 primary was only for socialists).
But, honestly, every poll gives the same result since mid-July.
I'm beginning to believe that Hollande may win, after all

Oh, and second round:

Hollande 59 / 59 / 65 (he is even at 61 among leftists in the 3rd wave)
Aubry 41 / 41 / 35

[big bad fab]

No Internet for me since Friday: a phone cable is cut, not far away from my home... living in the countryside is sometimes.... eh....

So, let's talk about this BREAKING NEWS !!!!

Schivardi won't be a candidate in 2012 and the POI will "concentrate itself on legislative elections".
Good news for Mélenchon.


Oh yes, Borloo won't be a candidate either .
Well, again, I've failed in my prognosis (though, when you know the messy Borloo, that's not really a surprise... but signs were in favour of his candidacy... maybe the not-so-good result of Valérie Létard for the Senate presidency has hastened his decision)

I really don't understand Sarkozy any longer... it's BAD news for him, not good ones...

1) Borloo was an asset, because he could have rallied people to Sarkozy in the second round, not just by calling to GOTV for him, but by being prominent in the medias and, next, appearing as an open, reassuring, moderate, PM-in-the-waiting for Sarkozy.

Now, Sarkozy is even more crushed between Le Pen and... Hollande.
Remember what I kept saying about DSK ? Sarkozy was in a vicious circle between the two, losing the centre-right voters when he spoke on security and immigration, losing the strong right voters when he spoke about Europe and social policies.

He's now in the same trap and the socialist and leftist voters should understand that Hollande is ideally positioned: remember all these polls, with many Borloo voters appealed by Hollande (far more than by Aubry, of course) ? Now, they will be caught by Hollande as soon as in the 1st round.

Hollande is not enthusiasm-prone, but he is the real candidate of the "useful vote".

2) With Borloo out, expect many more polls with Fillon and Juppé hypotheses. There is already one from crap pollster LH2 (I'll publish it later).

And this two will have more support in a time when a lot of noise is made about Sarkozy's illegitimate candidacy.
Of course, as we are now in a really Americanized system (the UMP will have primaries in 2017), the incumbent, even doomed, will be a candidate again.
But Borloo dropping, there will be even more unrest inside the right.

And I'm not even talking about Villepin gaining some points in the polls

3) Morin will think about himself as the new Path Whether he is eventually candidate until the end or not, he is negligible.

What is more, in an already messy centre (radicals not convinced by Borloo; NC split between borlooists like Lagarde, morinists and those in-between mostly concerned about their portfolios in Sarkozy's team like Sauvadet and Leroy; AC split between strict centrists and those open to the NC; etc), Borloo has weakened himself and will weaken the centre even more....

All what is tested now inside the right (trying to create a moderate and social wing inside the UMP) is too slow and too late.
So Sarkozy won't have a moderate candidate beside him to be a complement.

I think he is even more doomed now.

ViaVoice for Libération, 29 September-1 October 2011, sample 1007

Best UMP candidate for 2012:
Juppé 26 ()
Sarkozy 21
Fillon 16
Copé 10
another one 11
don't know 16

forecasts:
Sarkozy will lose 68
Sarkozy will win 23
don't know 9

and this one, with interesting hypotheses, though it's a crap pollster and though, with Borloo out, Fillon and Juppé may well be higher !!!!

LH2 poll for Yahoo, 30 September-1 October 2011, 843 RVs out of a whole sample of 975

Hollande 30 / 30
Fillon 15 / Juppé 16
Le Pen 15 / 16
Mélenchon 8.5 / 9
Joly 7.5 / 8.5
Bayrou 7.5 / 8
Borloo 11 / 9
Villepin 3 / 3
Boutin 1 / 0
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Arthaud 0.5 / 0
Poutou 0 / 0

We see here that Juppé is slightly more on the centre than Fillon, but that he faces also a "technocratic image" and an old hate from people with memories of 1995 (hence good results for Joly and Mélenchon - or is it just statistical noise )

And another one (though still partially published):

IFOP poll for Sud-Ouest, 29-30 September 2011, sample 966

candidate wished:
(among the whole sample/among UMPers)

Sarkozy 23 / 57
Fillon 7 / 10
Juppé 4 / 8
Villepin 7 / ?
Borloo 4 / 4
Bayrou 4 / ?
Le Pen 3 / 3
Copé ? / 3

I don't know the exact question: it's of course important as people can answer for whom they'll vote, based on the assumption that Sarkozy will be the candidate at 99.9%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I LOVE when Fab gets utterly pessimistic.

[big bad fab]

The rest of this crap poll:

LH2 poll for Yahoo, 30 September-1 October 2011, 843 RVs out of a whole sample of 975

Remember ? Last ime, Le Pen was at 11, Hollande at 35 and Sarkozy at 26...
Now, Sarkozy and Aubry stumble, Le Pen is really up and Mélenchon reaches unknown climaxes...

Hollande 31 / Aubry 25
Sarkozy 21 / 21
Le Pen 15 / 14.5
Mélenchon 8 / 10
Joly 7 / 7.5
Bayrou 8 / 9
Borloo 7 / 9
Villepin 2 / 3
Boutin 0.5 / 0
Dupont-Aignan 0 / 0
Arthaud 0.5 / 1
Poutou 0 / 0

Last time, it was really an outlier, as no other poll revealed the same trends.
Will it be the same today ?
Is Mélenchon so high ?
And Sarkozy back to such lows ?

Wait and see, but they are, at least, unlucky as Borloo is already out of the race ...

[big bad fab]

After all, the LH2 poll may not be completely an outlier, at least on Mélenchon and Sarkozy:

IPSOS-Logica poll, for Radio France and Le Monde, 30 September-1 October 2011, sample 962

Hollande 32 / Aubry 29 / Royal 22
Sarkozy 21 / 22 / 23
Le Pen 16 / 16 / 16
Mélenchon 8 / 7 / 9
Borloo 6.5 / 7 / 8
Bayrou 5.5 / 6 / 8.5
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Villepin 4 / 5 / 4
Arthaud 1 / 2 / 1.5
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5

Even Royal makes it to the second round now !

There is something around Mélenchon: a belated effect of the crisis ? a side-effect of Montebourg leftist success inside the PS ? all the "-gates" ? disappointment from Joly ? the fact that Panzergirl is levelling ?
Probably all those factors combined.
Is, at last, Mélenchon surging ?
It was announced so many times for more than a year now...

Sarkozy is clearly in a bad trend again, while the socialists are now very high. Probably a side-effect of the overwhelming media coverage of socialist debates and the consequence of all the "affairs".
It's all the more worrying for him that Boutin and Nihous aren't tested here.

I haven't published my tracker yesterday because I was opening a small blog http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
It's still under construction and it's in... French

But that's fine, because tonight, you'll have a tracker "with IPSOS inside"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great, I'll be following your blog.

I'm really curious to see what will happen with Borloo's voters in the 1st round. So far, all the polls have included him...