France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

And
17.24
6.85
5.6
0.61

It would be fun if Valls finishes above Royal, but changes are very tiny now.

[big bad fab]

I have 38.8 and 30.53

Because you're counting invalid ballots.

Sh... They are really irritating not to be able to have "normal" numbers.
Thanks, BTW.

[Hash]

Baylet wins!








in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon

[Antonio the Sixth]

Trend is reversing now : Hollande gained back 4/100ths of points and Aubry lost half.

[Hash]

The PS website is really a pathetic joke, like the party itself.

[You kip if you want to...]

I hear the PS website broke down today with everyone trying to find their polling place. lol.

[Antonio the Sixth]

After shrinking at 8.3 the margin is now on the rise with 8.4. Don't know if it's a trend or just statistical noise, but it's hard to see Hollande getting over 40% with only around 500,000 votes to count.

[Hash]

btw, 6478/9474 polling places have reported.

[big bad fab]

If we were in the US, Montebourg would be the VP nominee tonight

Montebourg and Royal will say how to vote tomorrow and "soon", respectively.
Hard to say from what they said.
But if Hollande changes his positioning to please Montebourg, he'd be a Romney

Valls will vote Hollande, without surprise.

1 821 778

38.95
30.64
17.3
6.86
5.65
0.6

[MaxQue]

Baylet wins!








in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon

Not surprising, PRG is one of three parties on the island (with PS and UMP).

[Math]

Montebourg and Royal will say how to vote tomorrow and "soon", respectively.
Hard to say from what they said.

A journalist said on I-télé that Aubry and Montebourg didn't talk to each other since 6 months, so who knows what will happen...

Anyone knows why there is twice more invalid votes in the "consolidated results" columns than in the first one?

[Antonio the Sixth]

38.92 / 30.64 with 1.87 mio.

Look like it's not going to move significantly in any direction.

[You kip if you want to...]

If we were in the US, Montebourg would be the VP nominee tonight

Montebourg and Royal will say how to vote tomorrow and "soon", respectively.
Hard to say from what they said.
But if Hollande changes his positioning to please Montebourg, he'd be a Romney

Valls will vote Hollande, without surprise.

1 821 778

38.95
30.64
17.3
6.86
5.65
0.6

Whoever Sego backs will lead to some awkwardness either way. I'm thinking she'll go with Hollande.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hollande and Aubry have just spoken. Both were good enough, with very different styles (Hollandes grandiloquent and vague, Aubry clear, solid, precise and focused on issues).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The total has remained at 1,902,230 for a while now...

[Keystone Phil]

I love this...

http://www.france24.com/en/20111009-hollande-leads-french-socialist-presidential-primary-partial-results

[Antonio the Sixth]

With 1,915,344 in, Hollande at 38.88%, Aubry at 30.65%. 8.23 points lead.

Extapolating from number of polls (assuming they roughly have the same number of voters) the vote total should be 2,709,971. It's probably a bit lower.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love this...

http://www.france24.com/en/20111009-hollande-leads-french-socialist-presidential-primary-partial-results

I think what she was meaning is that it's a personalist concept which contrats with the French left's tradition of "ideas before people". And I actually agree with that. However, since we live in a presidentialist republic, having open primaries is still better than not having them.

Edit : Suck it Phil with your alternative titles.

[big bad fab]

Aubry is a liar: she has said she will put the age of retirement back to 60, after having said she has never said it in the past during the debates...
Modern and responsible left, eh ?

Yes, I ahte her

1916 376
38.87
30.63
17.35
6.84
5.69
0.61

Julien Dray seemed pretty optimistic on i-Télé: maybe Montebourg won't endorse anybody after all.
I fear Royal's endorsement (a bit more likely towards Hollande) will be counter-productive.
Anyway, it's useless: the 7% she got are her mad fans: they won't vote for the 2nd round.

Valls and Baylet will put Hollande at 45: the last 5 or 6 points will be really hard to grasp

My only point of optimism tonight: renewal of infightings in the PS after a second round with a 50.5-49.5 result (even with some fraud accusations, hopefully )

[big bad fab]

Libération, Le Monde, Le Nouvel Observateur are surprisngly neutral: they just announce the ranks...

They wait for official instructions of their bosses, after a night of phone calls
And maybe they fear that the razor-thin second round will finish in another bloody internal fight ?

Rue89, Mediapart, Slate are more doubtful on Hollande and celebrate Montebourg....

And some say Le Figaro is predictible...

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's great to see you were right from the beginning, Fab. Now let's hope the media focus on "Hollande disappointing"... After, of course, higlighting the huge success of these primaries.

38.88 / 30.63, not moving. I don't know why it takes so much time to count the damn 500,000 ballots remaining...

[Hash]

They're probably all going to bed now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

They're probably all going to bed now.

Guess I'm gonna follow them. I hope to wake up and see the medias' headlines on Hollande's failure.

Allez Martine !

[big bad fab]

Local partial results, all with roughly 2/3 of polling stations (except... Deux-Sèvres with only a half of pollingstations reporting )

Ille-et-Vilaine
FH 38 MA 34 AM 17

Côtes d'Armor
FH 44 MA 30 AM 16

Finistère
FH 44 MA 32 AM 15

Morbihan
FH 44 MA 29 AM 16

This makes Bretagne loyal to its rocardian tradition, except this sh.... Green Rennes

Corrèze (Hollande's fief)
FH 86 AM 6 MA 4

Deux-Sèvres (Royal's FORMER stronghold )
FH 44 MA 18 SR 18 AM 17

Saône-et-Loire (Montebourg)
AM 59 FH 22 MA 14

Nord (Aubry's basis and a big federation inside the PS)
MA 55 FH 25 AM 10

Pas-de-Calais (neighbour of Nord and a big one too)
MA 42 FH 38 AM 10

Bouches-du-Rhône (no comment )
FH 37 Ma 28 AM 20

Hérault (Montpellier and former frêchist fief)
FH 40 MA 25 AM 19

Haute-Garonne (Toulouse and abig PS federation)
FH 39 MA 29 AM 18

Tarn-et-Garonne (Baylet's department)
FH 37 MA 23 AM 18 JMB 10

Gironde (a big PS federation and Bordeaux)
FH 41 MA 28 AM 18

Seine-Maritime (Fabiusland and a big PS federation)
MA 38 FH 36 AM 15

Nièvre (Mitterrand's lands)
FH 40 MA 25 AM 24

Rhône (Lyon)
FH 35 MA 32 AM 20 and Valls above Royal

Loire-Atlantique (Nantes and Ayrault's basis)
FH 41 MA 32 AM 16

Isère (Grenoble and both Destot and Vallini's department)
FH 36 Ma 34 AM 19
Paris (Delanoë and bobos)
MA 38 FH 32 AM 16

Essonne (Valls's department but not fief)
FH 35 Ma 31 AM 16 MV 11

Val-de-Marne (big red suburbs)
FH 36 Ma 32 AM 17

Seine-Saint-Denis (another big red suburbs and Bartolone's stronghold)
FH 35 Ma 34 AM 17

Val-d'Oise (DSK's former base)
FH 37 Ma 32 AM 16

Yvelines (Versailles)
FH 37 Ma 31 AM 15 MV 9 (globally speaking, Valls is better in Ile-de-France and above Royal, BTW)

Seine-et-Marne
FH 38 MA 30 AM 17

Polls were good on this: the closer you are to Paris, the higher is Aubry.

Haute-Corse ()
FH 43 MA 23 JMB 14 (Go, Jean-Michel, go ! )

Corse-du-Sud
FH 52 MA 19 AM 13 JMB 1 (WTF???)

[big bad fab]

Is everybody sleeping ?

I'm looking at the other results:
pretty homogeneous for Hollande around all the "province" (and for Montebourg).

Aubry has really gained ground in Paris, Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Seine-Maritime and Seine-Saint-Denis: this is a PS apparatchik victory.

She is also competitive (though not winning) in Isère, Ille-et-Vilaine, Alsace (surprisingly): is that a Green effect ?

Her personal local influence stops at the borders of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. And Fabius's influence isn't sensible in Eure. Amazing.

I don't see any communist effect (central France is a sort of pompidolian map for Hollande and Midi is more frêchist (hence hollandist) than communist and in Nord, we can't see what is communist vote and aubryst "favourite son" vote. In Ile-de-France, no big differences between the red suburbs and the bourgeois lands.

No real effect from the NPA-LO far left.

So, it's a bit better for Hollande to see this, as he is really prevailing all over France and has no weakness. Aubry is more Aubry+Delanoë+Fabius+Bartolone+Greens.
But, sure, she has not "holes" except in Massif Central and frêchist south.

What is more, it's more a socialist map than anything else, I think.
That's an advantage for Hollande.
Granted, I'm tryning to find something for him