France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

Speaking in the desert

Well, there is another small phenomenon I barely dare to underline.

Montebourg is slightly better somewhere... it's in PACA, in Drôme, in Gard, in Loire, in Savoies.
Sure, he is also good in Haute-Loire and Hautes-Alpes.
And he may be strong in Ain and Rhône just because of regional influence from his stronghold.
And he is not really strong in great Parisian Basin and in Great Eastern countryside.

But, still....
Isn't it a souverainist effect or a FN effect ?
Is this direct vote from FN voters or just a "mani pulite" vote in the South East ?

I don't know but that's interesting.

Eager to see the complete results and... maps

This pompidolo-chiraquian map for Hollande will be hilarious !!!

[big bad fab]

I'm going to sleep...

It seems pretty stabilized but only 6802 out of 9474 polling stations are reporting and it's stalled for 3 hours

FH 38.9
MA 30.6
AM 17.4
SR 6.8
MV 5.7
JMB 0.6

My prediction was:
41 (+2)
31 (=)
14 (-3)
10 (+3)
3 (-2)
1 (=)

Clearly, I've put 3 points to Royal where they went to Montebourg and 2 points to Hollande that went to Valls.
Not a big failure, considering I'm pro-Hollande in this case

But the polls weren't so bad: remember the last Harris one ?
43
31
13
7
5
1
Very accurate, except on Hollande and Montebourg... Hence the disappointment and the "surprise" of the night.
What would Aubrysts and Montebourgians say without the polls ? They wouldn't have won...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Results for Vélizy-Villacoublay :

Hollande : 349 (39%)
Aubry : 276 (31%)
Montebourg : 132 (15%)
Valls : 78 (9%)
Royal : 49 (6%)
Baylet : 6 (1%)

Aubry should have got 277...

[big bad fab]

2 191 365
7688 polling stations reporting out of 9502

FH 39.22
MA 30.74
AM 16.8
SR 6.85
MV 5.73
JMB 0.66

Very slightly better for Hollande, but not enough to have 40.

What will we bet for Montebourg's decision ?
I think the most probable will be that he supports neither Aubry nor Hollande.
But if he calls to rally behind Aubry, Hollande is probably done.

[greenforest32]

So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, the "consolidated" results are now higher than the "estimated" results. ROFL.

[Iannis]

So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

[ZuWo]

Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

Aubry is perfectly able to beat Sarkozy. She has a slighter lead in 1st round polls, but still defeat Sarko by around 10 points in the runoff. And what's more important, she's, IMO, the most able to face an agressive campaign, far more than a consensualist wimp like Hollande.

[Iannis]

So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

Aubry is perfectly able to beat Sarkozy. She has a slighter lead in 1st round polls, but still defeat Sarko by around 10 points in the runoff. And what's more important, she's, IMO, the most able to face an agressive campaign, far more than a consensualist wimp like Hollande.

Also Sarkozy is a campaign animal, actually

[Antonio the Sixth]

So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

Aubry is perfectly able to beat Sarkozy. She has a slighter lead in 1st round polls, but still defeat Sarko by around 10 points in the runoff. And what's more important, she's, IMO, the most able to face an agressive campaign, far more than a consensualist wimp like Hollande.

Also Sarkozy is a campaign animal, actually

Indeed, and my guts say he would be able to gain much more ground against Hollande than against Aubry.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

[Math]

So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

Aubry is perfectly able to beat Sarkozy. She has a slighter lead in 1st round polls, but still defeat Sarko by around 10 points in the runoff. And what's more important, she's, IMO, the most able to face an agressive campaign, far more than a consensualist wimp like Hollande.

Also Sarkozy is a campaign animal, actually

It's not really useful since he is by far the most unpopular incumbent President looking for reelection.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

Also, does anyone have polls about the current support for parties for the upcoming parliamentary elections ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

No poll so far, but I'm eager to see them !

Valls endorsed Hollande last evening already. Montebourg and Royal said they'll announce soon their endorsements.


As for parliamentary elections, pollster only poll them only once the presidential election is over. Since presidential and parliamentary terms coincide, parliamentary elections have become totally useless and only a confirmation of the president's victory. That's discusting, but that's how things are.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

No poll so far, but I'm eager to see them !

Valls endorsed Hollande last evening already. Montebourg and Royal said they'll announce soon their endorsements.


As for parliamentary elections, pollster only poll them only once the presidential election is over. Since presidential and parliamentary terms coincide, parliamentary elections have become totally useless and only a confirmation of the president's victory. That's discusting, but that's how things are.

Wasn't Royal once married with Hollande ? I guess she will endorse him.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

No poll so far, but I'm eager to see them !

Valls endorsed Hollande last evening already. Montebourg and Royal said they'll announce soon their endorsements.


As for parliamentary elections, pollster only poll them only once the presidential election is over. Since presidential and parliamentary terms coincide, parliamentary elections have become totally useless and only a confirmation of the president's victory. That's discusting, but that's how things are.

Wasn't Royal once married with Hollande ? I guess she will endorse him.

Well, precisely, she loathes him for this reason.

That said, she isn't exactly fond of Aubry as well.

Basically, she is in the same situation as a liberal democrat having to choose between Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Election map ! Results are not absolutely definitive, but changes are very unlikely now.



Hollande-slide ! Surprising to see such a uniform map when you remember the chaotic Reims one...

[Tender Branson]

Election map ! Results are not absolutely definitive, but changes are very unlikely now.



Hollande-slide ! Surprising to see such a uniform map when you remember the chaotic Reims one...

Well, you can clearly see which districts the TOP-3 represent ...

[big bad fab]

7874 polling stations reporting, out of 9502

2 249 578

FH 39.25
MA 30.7
AM 16.82
SR 6.87
MV 5.71
JMB 0.66

[Niemeyerite]

I hope Montebourg supports Aubry. She's the best candidate, and I agree with Antonio: to campaign against Sarko, she's the best.

[big bad fab]

A surprise: overseas territories are, for the moment, hugely in favour of Hollande (Guadeloupe, Martinique, Réunion).
No number for Guyane, Mayotte, Nouvelle-Calédonie and Polynésie, but that's surprising. Royal is down here too and the "legitimist" vote would have favoured Aubry.

8157 out of 9502 polling stations:
2 320 028

FH 39.21
MA 30.55
AM 17.06
SR 6.85
MV 5.67
JMB 0.65

At least, if Aubry's result could fall to 30, that would be fine
I can't hope a 29.9

[Antonio the Sixth]

The mediatic rhetoric are already set, Fab. They won't suddenly say "oh well, Aubry has fallen below 30 ! That's a total failure for her and a huge success for Hollande after all...". But I guess you know that.

2.43 mio in : Hollande 39.1, Aubry 30.63.

Hollande's lead back to 8.47 after having fallen as low as 8.25. Meaningless, but still.

[minionofmidas]

I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She lives in a constant state of paranoid rigidity. That's the first thing.

Well at least she's not a useless, do-nothing wimp with a vague personalist campaign.

And since when, exactly, can you do well in elections in France without being a do-nothing wimp with a vague personalist campaign?