France 2012: the official thread

[Hashemite]

I don't know why, but my gut tells me that Aubry will narrowly win this thing.

Which means that I'll vote Sarkozy on May 5.

[Insula Dei]

I don't know why, but my gut tells me that Aubry will narrowly win this thing.

Which means that I'll vote Sarkozy on May 5.

HP.

[Vasall des Midas]

Yeah, someone go break his little legs on May 4th.

Or you just all go vote Hollande in the runoff.

[big bad fab]

Medias were balanced yesterday and today, but tonight, I can see many articles in favour of Aubry... Sigh...

[HST1948]

I really hate to ask such a seemingly simple question, but I just started following this thread and really don't have an opinion of any of the candidates (Aubry, Hollande, or Sarkozy for that matter).  But is Sarkozy really in as much trouble as the polls seem to suggest, and if so who is the stronger candidate in your opinions to beat him (Aubry or Hollande)?

[You kip if you want to...]

I really hate to ask such a seemingly simple question, but I just started following this thread and really don't have an opinion of any of the candidates (Aubry, Hollande, or Sarkozy for that matter).  But is Sarkozy really in as much trouble as the polls seem to suggest, and if so who is the stronger candidate in you opinions to beat him (Aubry or Hollande)?

Yes, he is and Hollande.

[HST1948]

I really hate to ask such a seemingly simple question, but I just started following this thread and really don't have an opinion of any of the candidates (Aubry, Hollande, or Sarkozy for that matter).  But is Sarkozy really in as much trouble as the polls seem to suggest, and if so who is the stronger candidate in you opinions to beat him (Aubry or Hollande)?

Yes, he is and Hollande.

Thank you so much!

[Insula Dei]

That is: Hollande is polling better. I don't knwo whether that's quite the same thing.

[Californian Tony]

Final, ultimate and definitive results !

Total voters : 2,661,284 (representing between 5 and 6% of voters).

Invalid votes : 11,025 (0.41%)

Valid votes : 2,650,259

Hollande : 1,038,207 (39.17%)
Aubry : 806,189 (30.42%)
Montebourg : 455,609 (17.19%)
Royal : 184,096 (6.95%)
Valls : 149,103 (5.63%)
Baylet : 17,055 (0.64%)

Hollande's lead ends up at 8.75, which is a tad bigger than it looked at the end of election. Won't change a lot, of course. Aubry under 30.5, crap.


Anyways, the OpinionWay poll seems like good news, but let's wait for the debate and for new polls before making assumption. For now, Fab and Hash's analyses make me hopeful, but it ain't done until it's done.

[HST1948]

That is: Hollande is polling better. I don't knwo whether that's quite the same thing.

Well, someone mentioned a couple pages previously that they thought Aubry's lead, although smaller, was "more stable" than Hollande's. I was just wondering if anyone else thought that this was the case and if so why that is?

[Insula Dei]

The idea is, I suppose, that people who already like Aubry are unlikely to change their mind because they suddenly discover she's a 'horrible socialist' or something like that. Whereas a substantial part of the people who like Hollande might change their mind, as his campaign is more personalist and less ideolgical, making it relatively easier for him to implode as his campaign runs out of steam.

[big bad fab]

Final, ultimate and definitive results !

Well, the national total is 9474 polling stations reporting out of 9474, but in many departments, you've got one or two polling stations missing

[Californian Tony]

Final, ultimate and definitive results !

Well, the national total is 9474 polling stations reporting out of 9474, but in many departments, you've got one or two polling stations missing

Damn website...

If the margin on election night is below 0.5, they're gonna make me die !

[Hashemite]

It's France. Most African nations are more efficient and competent in reporting their election results than France is.

[big bad fab]

And Mayotte is at zero...
(Wallis and Futuna doesn't even appear, but it's likely there was no polling station there)

And "votants" are again taken for "suffrages exprimés"

Maître Mignard, I'm going to sue you

[Hashemite]

They had cancelled the vote in Mayotte because of the social tensions there.

[big bad fab]

Oh, didn't know. Thanks, Hash.


OK, I find the same totals for candidates than the High Authority
But not the same national total for blank and invalid votes (BTW, they have 2 different numbers, on the results page and in their communique...).

Funny facts after having crushed numbers:
- Baylet has his best absolute result in Tarn-et-Garonne and this sole department makes 11% of his national total
- Baylet received more votes in Haute-Corse (861) than in Paris (850)
- Saône-et-Loire is just behind Paris for the best absolute result for Montebourg
- Nord and Pas-de-Calais make 9% of the national total of Aubry; add Paris and Seine-Maritime and you have almost 20%

[You kip if you want to...]

Just watching Hollande on tonight's TF1 20h. He seems rather insincere (trying too hard to be 'normal'), but maybe that's just me...

[Californian Tony]

Where do you get the Outre-mer results, Fab ? I can't find them on the primaries website...

Candidate-by candidate map coming soon.

[Tender Branson]

Really hard to say who wins this. It looked like Hollande would have the lead in the run-offs, but these run-offs are always very hard to predict. I think he still wins by about 56-44.

[big bad fab]

Where do you get the Outre-mer results, Fab ? I can't find them on the primaries website...

Candidate-by candidate map coming soon.

Under the map, you've got a rolling menu and you can find overseas results (and French settled in foreign countries).

I've made my strength maps, but, don't worry, won't publish them here
Well, apart from my first comments, no big news, unfortunately, except for Royal and Valls maps, really funny:
- Royal: a "traditional" South for a socialist candidate, but a completely incoherent North
- Valls: almost a FN map , if there wasn't a very urban trend in the West and Ile-de-France (and his weakness in the aubryst North)


Another interesting figure, that Hollande should put forward tonight: he is the only one to be above the 1-million votes threshold !
This is purely symbolic, but it could compensate for the fact he is just under 40%.
And in 2008, I remember that the number of millions for Obama and Clinton was a point... (though it was one more for Clinton, so I guess it's not a good precedent for Hollande !)

[big bad fab]

Mathieu, if you read us, is there any poll in sight before Sunday ?

I'd be surprised if Harris doesn't make one. Le Parisien is always hungry to have a "breaking" poll .

IFOP ? Well, France-Soir hasn't money any longer , le JDD is published on Sunday and LCP may be reluctant.

[Math]

Mathieu, if you read us, is there any poll in sight before Sunday ?

I'd be surprised if Harris doesn't make one. Le Parisien is always hungry to have a "breaking" poll .

IFOP ? Well, France-Soir hasn't money any longer , le JDD is published on Sunday and LCP may be reluctant.

Don't worry, at last one Harris poll (for LCP !) will be released today. Basically the same results as Opinionway, you can find them here but the full data is still not on their website. Concerning IFOP I have no clue...

[Math]

***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande, in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Well, I see that as a good sign, regardless of what you guys will say :-).

[big bad fab]

We were partly joking about this "bad" endorsement by Royal .

What is fine for Hollande is the timing: it gives some substance to the ability of Hollande to rally just before the debate. Psychologically, it's good.

Montebourg has overplayed his result, I think (now, some of his supporters speak about creating a "movement": my God, this will not be well received by socialists !)

Oh, I've just seen that Hollande has insisted this morning on having received "one million" votes
No, I haven't said anything to Mosco, I promise


Harris Interactive poll for LCP, 9-11 October 2011, sample 1220

Unfortunately, this is a bad poll from Harris: small sample, only by Internet, on 3 days including last Sunday, only preferences on who you want to win, not who you intend to vote to,...

Among leftists / among socialists (we don't know the size of the sub-samples)
Hollande 47 / 56
Aubry 41 / 40
none 12 / 4

excluding undecideds:
Hollande 53 / 58
Aubry 47 / 42

Among leftists having voted in the first round (OMG, on a whole sample of 1220, how many are they ?! ):
Hollande 47
Aubry 44
none 9
It gives 51.5-48.5 on a 100 basis.

What makes this poll not completely bad is the internals:
as usual, Aubry wins among women, under 50 years old, Parisians, Green and FG voters. They are pretty balanced among CSP+. Hollande wins among old people, retirees, men, socialists.
Among CSP-, it's more surprising to see Aubry ahead, but this global CSP- category is far too large to understand what it means (and by CSP+, Harris may mean something weird, as Aubry is better among CSP++).

Certainly: 15 (+1 if we consider the last poll before the 1st round)
Probably: 11
probably not: 15
certainly not: 59
The difference is at +3 among the whole left, +7 among socialists (which may confirm one of my analyses, see my blog).

leftists certain to vote: 37
socialists: 47
Greens: 21 (overvalued)
MoDem: 8 (I guess it means one person )
far-left: 13
FG: 25

Of course, it's fine to see that Hollande doesn't seem to lose ground each day, but even Harris (which was the better pollster for the 1st round) also overvalued Hollande for the 1st round, even if less than OpinionWay or IPSOS or IFOP or CSA.