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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 179159 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #1050 on: October 16, 2011, 02:15:28 am »
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What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... Tongue
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1051 on: October 16, 2011, 02:44:54 am »
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What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... Tongue

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1052 on: October 16, 2011, 02:52:19 am »
Ignore

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... Tongue

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1053 on: October 16, 2011, 02:56:22 am »
Ignore

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... Tongue

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1054 on: October 16, 2011, 03:04:25 am »
Ignore

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... Tongue

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.

Yeah. Hopefully.

So, when are the polls closing as Phil wanted to know ? 9pm (3pm Eastern) ?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1055 on: October 16, 2011, 03:12:07 am »
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Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map. Angry
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

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« Reply #1056 on: October 16, 2011, 03:23:15 am »
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Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map. Angry

That's what happens when you leave things to Socialists Wink

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Quote from: Badger
Quote from: Swedish Cheese
London of course. Smiley

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4 realz SWEDISH Cheese? Huh

He's not from Sweden, he's from Scania.
 

MaxQue
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« Reply #1057 on: October 16, 2011, 03:24:56 am »
Ignore

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... Tongue

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.

Yeah. Hopefully.

So, when are the polls closing as Phil wanted to know ? 9pm (3pm Eastern) ?

7pm (1pm eastern)
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1058 on: October 16, 2011, 03:25:53 am »
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Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map. Angry

It is probably not on purpose, since national and local 1st round results are still avaliable.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1059 on: October 16, 2011, 03:27:34 am »
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Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map. Angry

It is probably not on purpose, since national and local 1st round results are still avaliable.

I'm sure it's not purposeful, but it still sucks.
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones, ep. 5x09
big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #1060 on: October 16, 2011, 04:43:32 am »
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Antonio, I have a messy Excel file, if you want Wink, typed with my little fingers Tongue
(EDIT: sent by mail on your gmail.com account)

Turnout is "up", say the socialists, but we don't know if it's 1%, 5%, 10% or 20%.
I guess it's partly "propaganda". I suppose it's not a tsunami, otherwise, American and Caribbean polling stations would have exploded or complained.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2011, 04:49:23 am by big bad fab »Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1061 on: October 16, 2011, 05:12:18 am »
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Antonio, I have a messy Excel file, if you want Wink, typed with my little fingers Tongue
(EDIT: sent by mail on your gmail.com account)

Didn't get it. Are you sure you got the adress correctly ? Thank you anyways, having an excel file will make things quite easier. Wink
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones, ep. 5x09
big bad fab
filliatre
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E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #1062 on: October 16, 2011, 07:35:36 am »
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Antonio, I have a messy Excel file, if you want Wink, typed with my little fingers Tongue
(EDIT: sent by mail on your gmail.com account)

Didn't get it. Are you sure you got the adress correctly ? Thank you anyways, having an excel file will make things quite easier. Wink

It's your adress given here: vitalone.antonio@gmail.com

Turnout at 13:00: 868 000 voters, against 800 000 last Sunday: +8.5%.
I've forecast +7%.

For the moment, it's still OK for Hollande, but if it's above 10%, it would begin to be less good for him, I think.

Montebourg has said that "many of his friends in Saône et Loire have voted for Aubry"...
Well, I've talked of a support similar to that of Chirac in 1981...
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1063 on: October 16, 2011, 07:41:33 am »
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Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird... Huh

Well, more participation is objectively a good thing. Now, if those new voters are Aubrysts... Wink
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

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« Reply #1064 on: October 16, 2011, 08:10:13 am »
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Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird... Huh

You can find them here too, but I don't know if they are really based on the final results...
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1065 on: October 16, 2011, 08:25:49 am »
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Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird... Huh

You can find them here too, but I don't know if they are really based on the final results...

Thank you ! Smiley I'll try to do my map with them, and correct it if necessary, if ever the 1st round results are back.
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones, ep. 5x09
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1066 on: October 16, 2011, 10:38:14 am »
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Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #1067 on: October 16, 2011, 10:51:26 am »
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Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio Tongue).
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1068 on: October 16, 2011, 10:53:16 am »
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Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio Tongue).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1069 on: October 16, 2011, 10:58:25 am »
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Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio Tongue).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

I guess that would mean non-PS voters (from the Left Front or the Greens), who lean strongly toward Aubry, turning out in significant numbers.
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones, ep. 5x09
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -7.10, S: -6.09


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« Reply #1070 on: October 16, 2011, 11:03:07 am »
Ignore

Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio Tongue).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

I guess that would mean non-PS voters (from the Left Front or the Greens), who lean strongly toward Aubry, turning out in significant numbers.

On the other hand it could also be normal PS voters who didn't vote in round 1. After all, only 40% of PS voters voted in the first round.
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big bad fab
filliatre
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E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #1071 on: October 16, 2011, 11:04:19 am »
Ignore

Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio Tongue).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

I guess that would mean non-PS voters (from the Left Front or the Greens), who lean strongly toward Aubry, turning out in significant numbers.

Yep.

Unless people have understood the message of Hollande: "I need a great majority to have a huge legitimacy against Sarkozy"... Well, I don't believe this is an understandable point for many people.
I guess Aubry saying "vote with your guts and vote against the candidate of the system" is far more efficient...
Hope I'm wrong Tongue
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
big bad fab
filliatre
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E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #1072 on: October 16, 2011, 11:06:06 am »
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Well, Tender, you may be right; in my prediction, I've given 40% of new voters for Hollande (people from the PS who didn't vote in first round because Hollande was said so high in the polls) and 60% to Aubry (PCF, PG, Greens, NPA).
But it was only with a turnout of +7%.
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Hash
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« Reply #1073 on: October 16, 2011, 11:13:31 am »

Hoping for a chaotic sh**tfest.

People on politiquemania saying that their local anecdotal evidence indicates a huge boost in turnout.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2011, 11:21:51 am by VICTORY 10.06.11 »Logged


The Prime Minister of New Zealand:

17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
big bad fab
filliatre
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E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #1074 on: October 16, 2011, 11:33:57 am »
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At 17:30, turnout of 1 650 000 +10%

Well, more than 1M are voting in the last hour and a half ?!?
Like in national elections, people are lazy and are doing things at the last minute: I hate that Tongue !
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
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