France 2012: the official thread

[Keystone Phil]

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

[Tender Branson]

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ...

[Senator MaxQue]

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ...

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

[Tender Branson]

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ...

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

[Senator MaxQue]

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ...

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.

[Tender Branson]

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ...

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.

Yeah. Hopefully.

So, when are the polls closing as Phil wanted to know ? 9pm (3pm Eastern) ?

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map.

[Swedish Cheese]

Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map.

That's what happens when you leave things to Socialists

[Senator MaxQue]

What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ...

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.

Yeah. Hopefully.

So, when are the polls closing as Phil wanted to know ? 9pm (3pm Eastern) ?

7pm (1pm eastern)

[Senator MaxQue]

Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map.

It is probably not on purpose, since national and local 1st round results are still avaliable.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Departement-by-departement 1st round results have now disappeared... Too bad I wanted to do one last map.

It is probably not on purpose, since national and local 1st round results are still avaliable.

I'm sure it's not purposeful, but it still sucks.

[big bad fab]

Antonio, I have a messy Excel file, if you want , typed with my little fingers
(EDIT: sent by mail on your gmail.com account)

Turnout is "up", say the socialists, but we don't know if it's 1%, 5%, 10% or 20%.
I guess it's partly "propaganda". I suppose it's not a tsunami, otherwise, American and Caribbean polling stations would have exploded or complained.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Antonio, I have a messy Excel file, if you want , typed with my little fingers
(EDIT: sent by mail on your gmail.com account)

Didn't get it. Are you sure you got the adress correctly ? Thank you anyways, having an excel file will make things quite easier.

[big bad fab]

Antonio, I have a messy Excel file, if you want , typed with my little fingers
(EDIT: sent by mail on your gmail.com account)

Didn't get it. Are you sure you got the adress correctly ? Thank you anyways, having an excel file will make things quite easier.

It's your adress given here: vitalone.antonio@gmail.com

Turnout at 13:00: 868 000 voters, against 800 000 last Sunday: +8.5%.
I've forecast +7%.

For the moment, it's still OK for Hollande, but if it's above 10%, it would begin to be less good for him, I think.

Montebourg has said that "many of his friends in Saône et Loire have voted for Aubry"...
Well, I've talked of a support similar to that of Chirac in 1981...

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird...

Well, more participation is objectively a good thing. Now, if those new voters are Aubrysts...

[Math]

Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird...

You can find them here too, but I don't know if they are really based on the final results...

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird...

You can find them here too, but I don't know if they are really based on the final results...

Thank you ! I'll try to do my map with them, and correct it if necessary, if ever the 1st round results are back.

[Tender Branson]

Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

[big bad fab]

Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio ).

[Tender Branson]

Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio ).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio ).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

I guess that would mean non-PS voters (from the Left Front or the Greens), who lean strongly toward Aubry, turning out in significant numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio ).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

I guess that would mean non-PS voters (from the Left Front or the Greens), who lean strongly toward Aubry, turning out in significant numbers.

On the other hand it could also be normal PS voters who didn't vote in round 1. After all, only 40% of PS voters voted in the first round.

[big bad fab]

Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio ).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

I guess that would mean non-PS voters (from the Left Front or the Greens), who lean strongly toward Aubry, turning out in significant numbers.

Yep.

Unless people have understood the message of Hollande: "I need a great majority to have a huge legitimacy against Sarkozy"... Well, I don't believe this is an understandable point for many people.
I guess Aubry saying "vote with your guts and vote against the candidate of the system" is far more efficient...
Hope I'm wrong

[big bad fab]

Well, Tender, you may be right; in my prediction, I've given 40% of new voters for Hollande (people from the PS who didn't vote in first round because Hollande was said so high in the polls) and 60% to Aubry (PCF, PG, Greens, NPA).
But it was only with a turnout of +7%.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Hoping for a chaotic sh**tfest.

People on politiquemania saying that their local anecdotal evidence indicates a huge boost in turnout.