France 2012: the official thread

[MaxQue]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Oh Lord, what now? Details?

A complicated thing about the Carlton Hotel in Lille.
A prostitution ring. They suspect Lille police chief to be one of ring leaders and DSK to be a customer.

They were offering soirees for free to DSK, paid by the police leader and businessmen. Some of those businessmen often went in Washington to meet with him.

A mix of prostitution, corrupt policemen and influence trafic.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jsLYX_4YnJ1qVXpL7MyGz4FsXGVg?docId=CNG.de80727976bb112284b8f6a2d4707c0c.281

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Nah. If the DSK affair made Hollande gain 5 points, I don't see how this little stuff could hurt him. I've the impression people don't even associate him with the PS anymore (except when he talks about his "sercret" deals with Aubry ).

[MaxQue]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Nah. If the DSK affair made Hollande gain 5 points, I don't see how this little stuff could hurt him. I've the impression people don't even associate him with the PS anymore (except when he talks about his "sercret" deals with Aubry ).

True. That is a good thing than he was stopped in May, then. All that coming out after he would have won the primary would have been dreadful...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Nah. If the DSK affair made Hollande gain 5 points, I don't see how this little stuff could hurt him. I've the impression people don't even associate him with the PS anymore (except when he talks about his "sercret" deals with Aubry ).

True. That is a good thing than he was stopped in May, then. All that coming out after he would have won the primary would have been dreadful...

Yeah, definitely. Don't make me even think to such a catastrophe...

[big bad fab]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Nah. If the DSK affair made Hollande gain 5 points, I don't see how this little stuff could hurt him. I've the impression people don't even associate him with the PS anymore (except when he talks about his "sercret" deals with Aubry ).

True. That is a good thing than he was stopped in May, then. All that coming out after he would have won the primary would have been dreadful...

Yeah, definitely. Don't make me even think to such a catastrophe..

And there are also some new stuff about the young Marie-Victorine, daughter of a black PS rank-and-file, who had sexual relations with DSK when he was minister or just before, and who attempted to kill herself...

But, don't worry, DSK is DSK and the PS is the PS. The only one who will fall will probably be Pupponi, the mayor of Sarcelles.
Otherwise, even if many people knew some details, I don't think it will hurt them.
And, meanwhile, you'll have new developments on Karachi affair, so even though Hollande lose 1 or 2 points, Sarkozy will lose 6 or 7 in the meantime...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Oh Lord, what now? Details?

A complicated thing about the Carlton Hotel in Lille.
A prostitution ring. They suspect Lille police chief to be one of ring leaders and DSK to be a customer.

They were offering soirees for free to DSK, paid by the police leader and businessmen. Some of those businessmen often went in Washington to meet with him.

A mix of prostitution, corrupt policemen and influence trafic.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jsLYX_4YnJ1qVXpL7MyGz4FsXGVg?docId=CNG.de80727976bb112284b8f6a2d4707c0c.281

That's so sordid that it's almost impressive.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #25 - 24 October 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   35,10
Sarkozy   23,59
Le Pen   16,38
Bayrou   7,46
Mélenchon   6,33
Joly   4,50
Villepin   2,03
Morin   2,25
Lepage   0,19
Dupont-Aignan   0,37
Boutin   0,46
Nihous   0,10
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,00
   
Hollande   61,41
Sarkozy   38,59

4 new polls are in... a huge boost for Hollande. Morin still has some points from Borloo, but not for long. Bayrou is slowly rising.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Amazing to see how the center-right suddenly dropped by almost 5 points with these new polls...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still interested in a few more primary maps ? Here is 2nd round relative margin :



To compare with 1st round :

Both candidates seem stronger in their original strongholds, which is logical enough.


And here is the evolution of turnout :



Huge North/South divide... If you compare to the maps above, it seems like big turnout generally favored Aubry, but it's not extremely clear (see Rhone-Alpes and IdF).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sciences Po's precinct :

Hollande : 334 (38.7%)
Aubry : 237 (27.5%)
Valls : 152 (17.6%)
Montebourg : 88 (10.2%)
Royal : 45 (5.2%)
Baylet : 7 (0.8%)

Hollande : 533 (62.7%)
Aubry : 317 (37.3%)

Turnout down to 855 from 866.

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Hollande : 264 (62.4%)
Aubry : 159 (37.6%)

Turnout down to 424 from 427.

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Hollande : 243 (60.1%)
Aubry : 161 (39.9%)

Turnout up to 404 from 382.

[big bad fab]

Very interesting maps (I'm too busy these days, but I wanted to do these, plus some with a comparison Hollande+Montebourg+Royal with Hollande 2nd round for example):

it's already very clear: appeals from candidates of the 1st round were of no effect, except a bit from Royal.

That is not logical: on the contrary, it's quite surprising. But it confirms me in my thought that the 1st round was the outlier.... not the polls....

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting maps (I'm too busy these days, but I wanted to do these, plus some with a comparison Hollande+Montebourg+Royal with Hollande 2nd round for example):

it's already very clear: appeals from candidates of the 1st round were of no effect, except a bit from Royal.

Well, there was probably a significant Valls effect in Southwest IdF (which flipped my departement on the "bad" side ), and a Baylet effect in, well, Tarn-et-Garronne. That said, Montebourg doesn't seem to have had any influence (Aubry is up in Rhône-Alpes and Franche-Comté, but down in PACA and Saône-et-Loire...).

[greenforest32]

Hopefully this keeps up and Sarkozy loses in 2012. Now that they control the Senate, what are the chances the left gains a majority in the lower legislative chamber?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully this keeps up and Sarkozy loses in 2012. Now that they control the Senate, what are the chances the left gains a majority in the lower legislative chamber?

Most likely. Since 2002, the parliamentary majority is directly tied with the Presidential winner. If Hollande wins, I've difficulties to see him lose considering the "wind of change" momentum the PS would gain (see 1981, even though, of course, the PS won't do that well for tons of reasons). But even if Sarkozy manages to pull an upset victory, there is a fair chance he still loses legislatives. People hate Sarkozy, and they aren't going to love it 6 months from now. If they reelect it, it will be because they would fear to "change their captain amid the storm", but they'll probably still want to make sure Sarko screws they the way he's done since 2007. So they could very well still vote for the left in legislatives.

Such a prediction isn't based on any data (because pollsters don't bother to poll legislatives before the president is known), so take it carefully. But this is my guess.

[minionofmidas]

No baby bump for Sarko? Goodgood. Very good. Or are there not enough polls since to say for sure?

[Antonio the Sixth]

No baby bump for Sarko? Goodgood. Very good. Or are there not enough polls since to say for sure?

We can always wait for a few other polls to come in the next days, but doesn't seem so.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #26 - 31 October 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   35,36
Sarkozy   23,66
Le Pen   16,37
Bayrou   7,49
Mélenchon   6,28
Joly   4,46
Villepin   1,94
Morin   2,05
Lepage   0,20
Dupont-Aignan   0,37
Boutin   0,47
Nihous   0,11
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,00
   
Hollande   61,41
Sarkozy   38,59

[Antonio the Sixth]

Stupid French pollsters. They come with 4 new polls in a week, and then ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the next one...

[Math]

Stupid French pollsters. They come with 4 new polls in a week, and then ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the next one...

Hey, if you have something like €15,000 to spend, I'm pretty sure some polling compagnies would warmly welcome you
Seriously, you should blame those who paid for these polls rather than the pollsters themselves.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Stupid French pollsters. They come with 4 new polls in a week, and then ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the next one...

Hey, if you have something like €15,000 to spend, I'm pretty sure some polling compagnies would warmly welcome you
Seriously, you should blame those who paid for these polls rather than the pollsters themselves.

True, it's the medias which prefer to spend time with useless and clueless blabbering about such smart questions like "will Sarkozy run again ?", "can Ségolène Royal win the PS primary ?" or about Hollande's new look.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #27 - 7 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   35,58
Sarkozy   23,84
Le Pen   17,03
Bayrou   7,03
Mélenchon   6,15
Joly   4,81
Villepin   1,84
Morin   1,30
Lepage   0,16
Dupont-Aignan   0,40
Boutin   0,36
Nihous   0,09
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,46
Chevènement   0,00
   
Hollande   61,58
Sarkozy   38,42

One new poll this week, from IPSOS (still not published on my blog, but I was in the hospital this week and very busy at work ).

Hollande is still on the rise.
Mélenchon is down again, while Joly is slightly up and Bayrou slightly down: all the trends which seemed new are stopped.
But, but, but, this is IPSOS which seems to undervalue Bayrou this year and overvalue Le Pen (she is indeed up again in our tracker).

Hollande has lost enthusiasm I think, but he is still very, very strong.
It's too early to say if the crisis is benefiting Le Pen or anyone else.
Hollande is a dull winner but a very solid one, for the moment.

[Colbert]

Hollande   35,58
Sarkozy   23,84
Le Pen   17,03
Bayrou   7,03
Mélenchon   6,15
Joly   4,81
Villepin   1,84
Morin   1,30
Lepage   0,16
Dupont-Aignan   0,40
Boutin   0,36
Nihous   0,09
Arthaud   0,96
Poutou   0,46
Chevènement   0,00
   

so, for all lefts, i count : 47,96 %


but, since 1995, total left is (maximum) 40 %


so, my predict is : holland will lose a lot of %. He is overestimated.

[Colbert]

test : what if....proportionnal is introduced


I use results of cantonales 2011 for the test. Misc right goes to UMP, and presidential majority too, misc left goes to PS

[Antonio the Sixth]

test : what if....proportionnal is introduced


I use results of cantonales 2011 for the test. Misc right goes to UMP, and presidential majority too, misc left goes to PS

I'd advice you to rather take the regionals : far "cleaner" results (with less "miscellaneous right/left"), and they have the advantage to be actual PR elections. It's hard to extrapolate what the PR results would be when the voting system is majoritarian.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1st Round :




2nd Round :