France 2012: the official thread

[Californian Tony]

1st Round :




2nd Round :

[big bad fab]

Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems.
The tracker will be updated... soon.

An interesting work by CSA on PS primary turnout's components:
http://www.csa.eu/multimedia/data/sondages/data2011/opi20111031-des-primaires-populaires.pdf

[Insula Dei]

Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems.
The tracker will be updated... soon.

So sorry to hear that.

[Californian Tony]

Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems.
The tracker will be updated... soon.

So sorry to hear that.

^^^^

[JulioMadrid]

Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems.
The tracker will be updated... soon.

So sorry to hear that.

^^^^

[Peter the Lefty]

Any recent polls for the parliamentary elections next year?  And who is likely to be Hollande's PM should the Socialists get a majority?

[Sibboleth]

As a general rule there aren't polls of the parliamentary elections until after the Presidential one. Because there's no point.

[Californian Tony]

As for the second question, it will be whoever Hollande wants. In France, we have a tradition not to speculate about hypothetical PMs. The only candidate who ever ran on a "ticket", Gaston Defferre in 1969 (promising to appoint Mendès-France), got 5%. The choice will depend on the political balance inside the party, of Hollande's strategy (Mitterrand liked to appoint his "enemies" like Mauroy or Rocard), and of plenty of political factors.

[Vasall des Midas]

Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems.

So sorry to hear that.

The tracker will be updated... soon.

Not sorry to hear that.

[Hashemite]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

[Peter the Lefty]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

[You kip if you want to...]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

Probably not. This happens in every constituency system...

[Sibboleth]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

Well, they've had it before.

[Hashemite]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.

[You kip if you want to...]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.

If it's only 20%, there's barely much point.

[Californian Tony]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.

If it's only 20%, there's barely much point.

It surely won't affect the overall distribution of seats much, but it can make a big difference for small parties. For example, in 2007, the MoDem won 7.6% of the vote but only 3 seats out of 577 (0.5%). With a 20% PR, it would have certainly gotten more than 10.

[Colbert]

last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)

[Californian Tony]

Fab, as soon as you have the time to update your tracker, please don't forget to give us last monday's version ! I really don't want to have missing dots in my graph.

[Keystone Phil]

last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)

Surge-kozy begins.

[You kip if you want to...]

last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)

Surge-kozy begins.

Or, the Marine-Momentum!

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #28 - 14 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   34,95
Sarkozy   24,63
Le Pen   17,8
Bayrou   6,89
Mélenchon   5,86
Joly   4,70
Villepin   1,99
Morin   0,78
Lepage   0,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Boutin   0,28
Nihous   0,05
Arthaud   0,51
Poutou   0,39
Chevènement   0,16
   
Hollande   60,02
Sarkozy   39,98

Don't worry, Antonio, l'exhaustivité est ma devise !

Here is the tracker for last week...
Hollande isn't really down, or just pulls back from its surreal highs.
Globally speaking, there is some sort of polarization around the big 3, as Mélenchon and Bayrou don't surge at all, contrary to what it has seemed for some weeks. Joly i still weak.
Morin has sunk among irrelevant small candidates.

Hollande isn't really in danger in the second round either.
He's just back at 60...

Very, very soon, my tracker for this week

[Californian Tony]

I've just heard about a LH2 poll giving 30 to Hollande and 29 for Sarkozy. Was it published ?

I know LH2 sucks, but how can this be true ?

[You kip if you want to...]

I've just heard about a LH2 poll giving 30 to Hollande and 29 for Sarkozy. Was it published ?

I know LH2 sucks, but how can this be true ?

Eurocrisis bounce?

[Colbert]

I know LH2 sucks

you know, IFOP is under control of Laurence Parisot, so... one or another...same sh*t

[big bad fab]

I know LH2 sucks

you know, IFOP is under control of Laurence Parisot, so... one or another...same sh*t

IFOP has big samples and is the closest of the tracker's results. This is, for the moment, the best pollstr for 2012.
For the moment.