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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 119558 times)
Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #1175 on: November 10, 2011, 11:54:11 am »
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1st Round :




2nd Round :

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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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big bad fab
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« Reply #1176 on: November 15, 2011, 09:56:53 am »
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Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems. Sad
The tracker will be updated... soon.

An interesting work by CSA on PS primary turnout's components:
http://www.csa.eu/multimedia/data/sondages/data2011/opi20111031-des-primaires-populaires.pdf
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Enjoy the French elections !
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Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Insula Dei
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« Reply #1177 on: November 15, 2011, 10:07:44 am »
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Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems. Sad
The tracker will be updated... soon.



So sorry to hear that.
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Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #1178 on: November 15, 2011, 04:55:45 pm »
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Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems. Sad
The tracker will be updated... soon.



So sorry to hear that.

^^^^
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #1179 on: November 16, 2011, 03:24:43 pm »
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Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems. Sad
The tracker will be updated... soon.



So sorry to hear that.

^^^^
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E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #1180 on: November 16, 2011, 03:39:07 pm »
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Any recent polls for the parliamentary elections next year?  And who is likely to be Hollande's PM should the Socialists get a majority?
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« Reply #1181 on: November 16, 2011, 03:45:15 pm »
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As a general rule there aren't polls of the parliamentary elections until after the Presidential one. Because there's no point.
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Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #1182 on: November 16, 2011, 04:23:35 pm »
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As for the second question, it will be whoever Hollande wants. In France, we have a tradition not to speculate about hypothetical PMs. The only candidate who ever ran on a "ticket", Gaston Defferre in 1969 (promising to appoint Mendès-France), got 5%. Tongue The choice will depend on the political balance inside the party, of Hollande's strategy (Mitterrand liked to appoint his "enemies" like Mauroy or Rocard), and of plenty of political factors.
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
only back for the worldcup
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« Reply #1183 on: November 18, 2011, 11:26:14 am »
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Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems. Sad

So sorry to hear that.

The tracker will be updated... soon.


Not sorry to hear that. Wink
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« Reply #1184 on: November 18, 2011, 11:43:17 am »

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #1185 on: November 18, 2011, 07:18:37 pm »
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The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 
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« Reply #1186 on: November 18, 2011, 07:36:43 pm »
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The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

Probably not. This happens in every constituency system...
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« Reply #1187 on: November 18, 2011, 07:41:33 pm »
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The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

Well, they've had it before.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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« Reply #1188 on: November 18, 2011, 07:50:38 pm »

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.
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« Reply #1189 on: November 18, 2011, 08:24:27 pm »
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The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.

If it's only 20%, there's barely much point. Tongue
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Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #1190 on: November 19, 2011, 04:35:57 am »
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The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.
Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.

If it's only 20%, there's barely much point. Tongue

It surely won't affect the overall distribution of seats much, but it can make a big difference for small parties. For example, in 2007, the MoDem won 7.6% of the vote but only 3 seats out of 577 (0.5%). With a 20% PR, it would have certainly gotten more than 10.
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #1191 on: November 19, 2011, 06:13:53 am »
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last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)
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Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #1192 on: November 20, 2011, 05:43:25 am »
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Fab, as soon as you have the time to update your tracker, please don't forget to give us last monday's version ! I really don't want to have missing dots in my graph. Wink
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #1193 on: November 20, 2011, 11:32:36 am »
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last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)

Surge-kozy begins.
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« Reply #1194 on: November 20, 2011, 11:57:08 am »
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last IFOP poll


hollande 32.5  (-2.5)
sarkozy 26 (+1)
le pen 19 (+2)

Surge-kozy begins.

Or, the Marine-Momentum!
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big bad fab
filliatre
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E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #1195 on: November 20, 2011, 11:59:27 am »
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2012 Big Bad Tracker #28 - 14 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... Wink      


      

Hollande   34,95
Sarkozy   24,63

Le Pen   17,8
Bayrou   6,89
Mélenchon   5,86
Joly   4,70
Villepin   1,99
Morin   0,78
Lepage   0,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Boutin   0,28
Nihous   0,05
Arthaud   0,51
Poutou   0,39
Chevènement   0,16
   
Hollande   60,02
Sarkozy   39,98

Don't worry, Antonio, l'exhaustivité est ma devise !

Here is the tracker for last week... Tongue
Hollande isn't really down, or just pulls back from its surreal highs.
Globally speaking, there is some sort of polarization around the big 3, as Mélenchon and Bayrou don't surge at all, contrary to what it has seemed for some weeks. Joly i still weak.
Morin has sunk among irrelevant small candidates.

Hollande isn't really in danger in the second round either.
He's just back at 60...

Very, very soon, my tracker for this week Tongue
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Robb the Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #1196 on: November 20, 2011, 01:02:30 pm »
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I've just heard about a LH2 poll giving 30 to Hollande and 29 for Sarkozy. Was it published ?

I know LH2 sucks, but how can this be true ?
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #1197 on: November 20, 2011, 01:20:23 pm »
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I've just heard about a LH2 poll giving 30 to Hollande and 29 for Sarkozy. Was it published ?

I know LH2 sucks, but how can this be true ?

Eurocrisis bounce?
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Colbert
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« Reply #1198 on: November 20, 2011, 03:25:05 pm »
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I know LH2 sucks




you know, IFOP is under control of Laurence Parisot, so... one or another...same sh*t
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big bad fab
filliatre
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E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #1199 on: November 20, 2011, 03:28:22 pm »
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I know LH2 sucks




you know, IFOP is under control of Laurence Parisot, so... one or another...same sh*t

IFOP has big samples and is the closest of the tracker's results. This is, for the moment, the best pollstr for 2012.
For the moment.
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
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