France 2012: the official thread

[Colbert]

I know that. I make a misunderstooding (hum...)

I mean...i don't talk about efficiency, but about ideological minds behind big poll institutes.



(in an idealist world, electoral polls would been forbidden...and we would have VERY exciting night-elections days^^)

[big bad fab]

I've just heard about a LH2 poll giving 30 to Hollande and 29 for Sarkozy. Was it published ?

I know LH2 sucks, but how can this be true ?

It has just been published. But LH2 is, for the moment, the pollster which has been the farthest away from the tracker. Really, it seems to be the worst, this turn.

And, in its previous poll, Hollande was at 39...
As for this poll, Le Pen is only at 15, clearly giving an advantage to Sarkozy (+5 at 29).
And Chevènement (at its best at 1.5), Mélenchon as high as 7 (+0.5), Joly as high as 6 (+1), all have a bad impact for Hollande.

For the moment, this poll is clearly an outlier.
For the second round, Hollande is still at 58.

[Colbert]

anyway, those 2e round results are fantaisist

even De Gaulle didn't break the wall of 56 points

and in 1980, for poll institutes, Giscard was given winner by 60-40 vs Mitterrand...

the 2012 2e round will be more too close-to-call (except if Marine goes in final)

[Хahar 🤔]

Does ponderated mean weighted?

[minionofmidas]

Does ponderated mean weighted?

Clearly so.

Including etymologically (except that the English form is pondered, of course).

[Math]

anyway, those 2e round results are fantaisist

even De Gaulle didn't break the wall of 56 points

and in 1980, for poll institutes, Giscard was given winner by 60-40 vs Mitterrand...

the 2012 2e round will be more too close-to-call (except if Marine goes in final)

Well, of course I have no clue about what will be the outcome of the 2012 election, but I really think it is not because since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, the six left-wing vs. right-wing presidential elections were rather close that it will be again the case next year. I don't understand why we would be that exceptional in that regard.

[Peter the Lefty]

Ah, another bounce in the polls for Sarko...only to fade away, like last time, probably (hopefully).

[DL]

What passes for a "bounce" for Sarko these days means he is losing by 20 points instead of losing by 30 points....

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #29 - 21 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande 33,62
Sarkozy 25,92
Le Pen 17,57
Mélenchon 5,93
Bayrou 6,78
Joly 4,57
Morin 0,64
Villepin 1,86
Boutin 0,33
Dupont-Aignan 0,75
Nihous 0,1
Arthaud 0,49
Poutou 0,34
Chevènement 0,69
Lepage 0,41

Hollande 59,32
Sarkozy 40,68

[big bad fab]

Antonio's graph is finer, but in the meantime...

As for the 2nd round, it's more boring:

[Antonio the Sixth]

If you really want it to be updated week-by-week, I can go with it. I just don't find it useful personally.

[big bad fab]

If you really want it to be updated week-by-week, I can go with it. I just don't find it useful personally.

Oh no, you do as you wish.
It's just that I had my files open and used them for my blog and so just put the graphs here as I hadn't to wast too much time...
But loading the file through photobucket gives a sh***y result here

(maybe also that, without being aware of it, I like this downward pink line )

[Antonio the Sixth]

If you really want it to be updated week-by-week, I can go with it. I just don't find it useful personally.

Oh no, you do as you wish.
It's just that I had my files open and used them for my blog and so just put the graphs here as I hadn't to wast too much time...
But loading the file through photobucket gives a sh***y result here

(maybe also that, without being aware of it, I like this downward pink line )

I understand it. In some way, I'm also happy Hollande didn't break 36%, as that would have forced me to "compress" my graph even more.

Though, I feel a tad concerned by all this mediatic blabbering about how "Hollande is losing ground" : it can always turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. I'm not too concerned, though, especially since no 2nd round poll puts him below 58%.

ROFLMAO at Eva Joly. Damn, I really didn't imagine she could f-ck things up that bad for her party. Ending like Lipietz'02 ?

[big bad fab]

The very fact that there was a Lipietz '02 failure will prevent a Joly '12 crash.
But it may give Bayrou another small boost.
Bayrou is clearly hunting for centre-left and green votes at the moment: his critics against Sarkozy are more general and less personalized, while his critics against the left are more precise.
And in the end, he may well rally Sarkozy... Another big paradox...

Hollande has no real threat from the left: Mélenchon is unable to surge above 10 and Joly is already done. So, I'm not at all worried for him.
But, you're right, the media buzz is negative for him: that's stupid and undeserved, but it may have an influence...
It irritates me from a neutral viewpoint, but, of course, from a partisan viewpoint, I'd be so pleased if it could work and give Sarkozy a boost .

[MaxQue]

Lipietz?
Wasn't Mamère were their candidate in 2002?

[Hash]

Lipietz was originally the candidate until he shot himself by saying something about Corsican independence or something something.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #30 - 28 November 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week: it may change after the autumn.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   32,70
Sarkozy   26,29
Le Pen   17,49
Bayrou   6,81
Mélenchon   6,34
Joly   4,68
Villepin   1,65
Morin   0,67
Lepage   0,38
Dupont-Aignan   0,83
Boutin   0,37
Nihous   0,08
Arthaud   0,54
Poutou   0,44
Chevènement   0,74
   
Hollande   59,13
Sarkozy   40,87

Hollande may be a winner by default, but he is still a very big winner in the second round.

His decline in the first round isn't really worrying. Remember that when DSK exploded, Sarkozy was at 21, but Borloo was at 8 and Villepin at 4-5: Sarkozy is still 3 or 4 points under this total, whereas Villepin is vanishing and Morin isn't able to gain 1 point.

Le Pen is still very high and has a good potential to make a threatening comeback.
Joly seems to have stopped the bleeding.
Mélenchon is strong again but isn't able to surge really.
Bayrou is even, but we have to watch him: with Hollande ahving now problems with hollandais themselves, there may an opportunity for Bayrou.

Well, troubles among the left aren't really worrying fr Hollande as he can be seen as "strong" against the Greens. But now that his aide Lamdaoui hasn't the support of the party for a seat in the Assembly, he is angry... And some other hollandais are angry against aubrystes and the fact that Hollande isn't harsh enough against them....
THIS can be a bigger problem for Hollande than all the buzz around the Greens or Mélenchon's attacks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The trend is clear : Hollande keeps losing and Sarkozy keeps growing, but Hollande's levels remain far above normality. If things go well for him, he can manage to stay above 30% in the 1st round and 58% in the second. Otherwise, may God help us...

Since you bring out comparisons with the beginning of the tracker, and since this is the 30th edition, let's have a look at some numbers, comparing the results of exactly 6 months ago (30/5).

Hollande : 26,01% -> 32,7% (+6,69)
Hulot/Joly : 8,61% -> 4,68% (-3,93)
Mélenchon : 5,03% -> 6,34% (+1,31)
Chevènement : 0,49% -> 0,74 (+0,25)
Total Left : 40,14% -> 44,46% (+4,32)

Sarkozy : 21,03% -> 26,29% (+5,26)
Bayrou : 5,39% -> 6,81% (+1,42)
Villepin : 3,84% -> 1,65% (-2,19)
Borloo/Morin : 7,43% -> 0,67%(-6,76)
Dupont-Aignan : 0,73% -> 0,83% (+0,1)
Boutin : 0% -> 0,37% (+0,37)
Nihous : 0% -> 0,08% (+0,08)
Lepage : 0% -> 0,38% (+0,38)
Total right : 38,42% -> 37,08% (-1,34)

Le Pen : 19,29% -> 17,49% (-1,8)
Arthaud : 1,02% -> 0,54% (-0,48)
Poutou : 1,13% -> 0,44% (-0,69)
Total extremes : 21,44% -> 18,47% (-2,97)


The trend is pretty clear : polarization on both sides with the collapse of two strong alternative candidacies (Hulot and Borloo), a still strong advantage for the left almost entirely due to Hollande, and a net decline of extremist candidates.

[Colbert]

Hollande   32,70
Sarkozy   26,29
Le Pen   17,49
Bayrou   6,81
Mélenchon   6,34

Since your last edition :

Hollande -0.37 (-1.41%)
Sarkozy +0.92 (+2.81%)
Le Pen +0.08 (+0.46%)
Bayrou -0.03 (-0.44%)
Mélanchon -0.41 (-6.47%)
others -0.19 (-1.83%)

[Colbert]

Since 1 month :


Hollande :    -1,48   (-4,22%)
Sarkozy :    2,33   (+9,88%)
Le Pen :    1,19   (+7,26%)
Bayrou :    -0,68   (-9,12%)
Mélenchon :    -0,4   (-6,32%)
Others :    -0,96   (-8,62%)


Left* :    -1,73   (-3,67%)
Right* :    2,39   (+5,27%)

      
(*without bayrou)

[big bad fab]

The trend is clear : Hollande keeps losing and Sarkozy keeps growing, but Hollande's levels remain far above normality. If things go well for him, he can manage to stay above 30% in the 1st round and 58% in the second. Otherwise, may God help us...

Since you bring out comparisons with the beginning of the tracker, and since this is the 30th edition, let's have a look at some numbers, comparing the results of exactly 6 months ago (30/5).

Hollande : 26,01% -> 32,7% (+6,69)
Hulot/Joly : 8,61% -> 4,68% (-3,93)
Mélenchon : 5,03% -> 6,34% (+1,31)
Chevènement : 0,49% -> 0,74 (+0,25)
Total Left : 40,14% -> 44,46% (+4,32)

Sarkozy : 21,03% -> 26,29% (+5,26)
Bayrou : 5,39% -> 6,81% (+1,42)
Villepin : 3,84% -> 1,65% (-2,19)
Borloo/Morin : 7,43% -> 0,67%(-6,76)
Dupont-Aignan : 0,73% -> 0,83% (+0,1)
Boutin : 0% -> 0,37% (+0,37)
Nihous : 0% -> 0,08% (+0,08)
Lepage : 0% -> 0,38% (+0,38)
Total right : 38,42% -> 37,08% (-1,34)

Le Pen : 19,29% -> 17,49% (-1,8)
Arthaud : 1,02% -> 0,54% (-0,48)
Poutou : 1,13% -> 0,44% (-0,69)
Total extremes : 21,44% -> 18,47% (-2,97)


The trend is pretty clear : polarization on both sides with the collapse of two strong alternative candidacies (Hulot and Borloo), a still strong advantage for the left almost entirely due to Hollande, and a net decline of extremist candidates.

I would put Bayrou in a category of his own or in a centre category with Lepage.

Sarkozy hasn't made it for the entire decline in the (Borloo)Morin and Villepin candidacies. So, Hollande has still some margin to waste. But he must be careful now.
The last IFOP poll is less good for him (see my blog : I'll publish it tonight): 29.5 and 56.
Bayrou, as I anticipated it, seems on the rise (and Mélenchon too) and Le Pen remains strong among "the people".

[Antonio the Sixth]

I put Bayrou and Lepage in the "right" category because they are more likely to bite on traditionally right-wing electorate and potential Sarkozy voters. I doubt Bayrou is gathering support from all over the spectrum as he did in 2007. But as that awful poll suggests, that might change.

Self-fulfilling prophecy is on the march and nothing, except a new mediatic narrative, can stop it. Well, this and the formidable intelligence of Joly and Mélenchon.

[Colbert]

IFOP poll, 30 nov.


HOLLANDE 29.5 (-3)
SARKOZY 26 (=)
LE PEN 19.5 (+0.5)
BAYROU 8.5 (+2.5)
MELENCHON 7.5 (+0.5)
others 9 (-0.5)


http://www.atlantico.fr/decryptage/sondage-ifop-presidentielle-2012-hollande-sarkozy-ecart-resserre-marine-pen-jean-luc-melenchon-francois-bayrou-jerome

[Colbert]

IFOP LEFT & RIGHT (20 oct., 4 nov., 16 nov., 30 nov.)


LEFT* :

20 oct. : 46.5
4 nov. : 43.5
16 nov. : 44.5
30 nov. : 41.5



RIGHT* :

20 oct. : 47
4 nov. : 49.5
16 nov. : 49.5
30 nov. : 50



(yark yark, I had said that left always goes to 40 % in prez elections )





*without bayrou

[DL]

Actually I don't think a leftwing candidate for the presidency in France has ever has less than 46-47% of the vote in the second round and that would have been Jospin in 1995.

France at the presidential level in that barring a fluke like LePen being in the second round in 2002 - each side has a floor of about 45% - even though most polls give Hollande a 12-16% lead in the end if he wins by 7 or 8% it will be a landslide by French standards.