France 2012: the official thread

[Formerly Californian Tony]

As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious

I think at this point I would just give up on partisan politics forever and focus only on data and analysis.

[big bad fab]

As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious

I think at this point I would just give up on partisan politics forever and focus only on data and analysis.

Take some comfort with the last BVA poll.
I'll try to publish it tonight.
Well, I must acknowledge BVA is a bad pollster this cycle and they seem to be always late in the trends...

[Beet]

Besides his handsome good looks and charming demeanor, what bread-and-butter Socialist issues is Hollande (oops) hammering Sarkozy on?

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious

I think at this point I would just give up on partisan politics forever and focus only on data and analysis.

Which is what I've basically done, yeah.

[You kip if you want to...]

If the PS manages to lose yet again, I think it's time for them to disband and let another party take up the left-wing mantle. This is ridiculous.

This.

[asexual trans victimologist]

If the PS manages to lose yet again, I think it's time for them to disband and let another party take up the left-wing mantle. This is ridiculous.

This.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious

I think at this point I would just give up on partisan politics forever and focus only on data and analysis.

Take some comfort with the last BVA poll.
I'll try to publish it tonight.
Well, I must acknowledge BVA is a bad pollster this cycle and they seem to be always late in the trends...

I haven't seen it on your blog...

(yes, I still read it even when I don't take the time to comment )

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally. Of course, the RadSocs managed to remain a mainstay of government even then, but circumstances were different.

[Colbert]

The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally.

great ! you point exactly right on the target

[Math]

The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally.

great ! you point exactly right on the target

Of course, the PS is totally finished even if its candidate is still on his way to win with a larger margin than Mitterrand in 1988... I know how the medias will try to make it fun and tense until the end, but Hollande is not Deferre at this point, am I right?

[essential]

Hello everybody,

It seems that Paris Match and IFOP have started a daily poll

Hollande 27%
Sarkozy 23.5%
Le Pen 21.5%
Bayrou 13%

In the second round, always the same gap between Hollande and Sarkozy : 57-43

[You kip if you want to...]

Hello everybody,

It seems that Paris Match and IFOP have started a daily poll

Hollande 27%
Sarkozy 23.5%
Le Pen 21.5%
Bayrou 13%

In the second round, always the same gap between Hollande and Sarkozy : 57-43

Marinementum again?

[big bad fab]

France is now a great country:
http://www.parismatch.com/Actu-Match/Presidentielle-2012/la-presidentielle-en-temps-reel.html

Each day, at 18:00 PM (CET), you'll have a daily poll from IFOP, with a panel of 300-350, rolling on 3 days, so that we have a total 900-1000 voters...

My own tracker will take into account every new complete poll, i.e. each 3 days, I'll put the result into the database.
IFOP will become more important than others, but it's deserved and maybe OpinionWay, IPSOS and Harris will have their own trackers or, at least, more polls.

Details (in French) here : http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/


Well, a great day for polling, an awful day for us, UMPers

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Hello everybody,

It seems that Paris Match and IFOP have started a daily poll

Hollande 27%
Sarkozy 23.5%
Le Pen 21.5%
Bayrou 13%

In the second round, always the same gap between Hollande and Sarkozy : 57-43

Welcome to the forum, essential !

Great to see we finally have a regular tracking poll !

[Colbert]

what is a marinentum?

[Formerly Californian Tony]

what is a marinentum?

"momentum" is what you say in the USA when a candidate is surging in the polls. I think the correct translation in French would be "dynamique". "Marinementum" of course refers to Marine Le Pen.

[Vasall des Midas]

The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally.

great ! you point exactly right on the target

There definitely is a lot of truth to that. Of course the old SFIO was a bit like that as well.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Ifop tracker, day 2

Hollade 27% nc
Sarkozy 24% +0.5
MLP 21.5% nc
Bayrou 12.5% -0.5
Melenchon 6.5% nc
Joly 3.5% nc
DVP 1.5% -0.5
Poutou 0.5% nc
Nihous 0.5% +0.5
Morin 0.5% -0.5
JPC 0.5% nc
Arthaud 0.5% nc

Hollande 56.5% -0.5
Sarko 43.5% +0.5

[Peter the Lefty]

I'm sure the fact that France just lost its AAA credit rating will give Hollande some momentum back.  I hope to God, that is. 

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #37 - 16 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            


      

Hollande   28,2
Sarkozy   24,66
Le Pen   18,25
Bayrou   12,88
Mélenchon   6,91
Joly   3,21
Villepin   2,55
Morin   0,54
Lepage   0,44
Dupont-Aignan   0,44
Boutin   0,52
Nihous   0
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,45
Chevènement   0,45
   
Hollande   56,28
Sarkozy   43,72

[Beet]

The problem with Hollande is that he's just running to lick Angela Merkel's and Christine Lagarde's bush. How would he be different than Sarkozy? Merkel and Lagarde will tell him to cut spending, bust unions, and open markets to cheap foreign imports, all in a bid to restore "competitiveness". Which is code for reducing the French standard of living because in the German mind, the French are too well-off relative to their productivity.

How is that left-wing?

The problem is not that PS loses constantly so someone else needs to take up the left-wing banner. Even if Hollande narrowly won the election, it would be just like the recent election in Denmark. A rear-guard victory by a declining political force. The problem is, no one takes up the left-wing banner. I was reading this weekend of a survey taken in Belle Epoque Germany in which the surveyers expressed astonishment that only 88 percent of the proletariat in one town supported the SPD. Naturally, it was assumed that proleterian = SPD. Now, the 'Socialist' party manages less than a fifth of the blue collar vote, yet not an eyebrow is raised. The PS problem is that they have lost the workers' vote. Why should the worker support Hollande over Sarkozy? Heck, Marine Le Pen is more left wing than Hollande at this point. She is the only one standing up to Frankfurt. And Victor Orban is the most Keynesian, Kirchnerist leader in Europe.

[Sibboleth]

What do (inaccurate as it happens, but that's not the issue) bourgeois assumptions about the solidity of working class support for the SPD a century ago have to do with the sociology of the PS vote of today? Support for the PS is not as closely linked to class (or to other socioeconomic factors) as most other (Western/Northern) European social democratic parties for historical reasons - not only do you have the old Catholic/Anti-Clerical divide (which worked against the formation of 'normal' class politics), but the socialist party that was embedded in working class communities was the Commies and not SFIO - and that has certainly been electorally unhelpful at times, sure. But that's not news and has nothing to do with the current crisis.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Perhaps the reason why people don't make a fuss out of it is that the FN has been the largest party with ouvriers in all presidential elections since 1995. Even 2007. So some historical perspective would help, fo 'sho.

[big bad fab]

I've just published on my blog a short study of transfers between 1st and 2nd rounds.
As there are some graphs and if you know that "vers" means "towards", you'll be able to understand the essential part of it

For those interested, but not fluent in Victor Hugo's language...

And this article will give some comfort to all of you, "liberals", who are so worried of a Sarkozy comeback

[Colbert]

BBF I really like much your blog, but everytime, it"s irritate me about your heavy remanence of MARION "Marine" Le pen.


As I know, if you come this way, you have no reason to call Martine Aubry "Aubry" or Ségolène Royal "Ségolène".