France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #39 - 30 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            


      

Hollande   28,38
Sarkozy   23,92
Le Pen   18,78
Bayrou   13,20
Mélenchon   7,56
Joly   3,20
Villepin   1,97
Morin   0,52
Lepage   0,34
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Boutin   0,30
Nihous   0,08
Arthaud   0,46
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,39
   
Hollande   57,04
Sarkozy   42,96

Mélenchon is up but it doesn't hurt Hollande, who is even stronger.
Bayrou is more or less stalled.

UPDATED: sorry, I've forgotten to add the last daily IFOP...

UPDATED AGAIN ! You won't believe it, but this sh*** pollster, IFOP (yes I'm angry !), has in fact released other polls which are different from their daily ones...
So, another big one is in, but, fortunately, with no great effect.
It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

[Formerly Californian Tony]

What's going on with IFOP ? I really don't understand...

[Math]

It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?

Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.

[big bad fab]

It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?
Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.

Unfortunately no, because, one day it's day D-3 plus day D-2 plus day D-1 plus day D.
The next one, it's the same plus day D+1. and then it's only D-1, D, D+1 and D+2. And then, only 3 days, etc.
It's completely erratic and you can't infer some daily samples because the total samples are never calculated with the same number of daily samples in them.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

If it's always such a pain in the ass, you should maybe just ignore the daily tracking poll. It's not like you need it with all the polls we get each week, and it also seems to be pretty off compared to other pollsters.

[Math]

It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?
Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.

Unfortunately no, because, one day it's day D-3 plus day D-2 plus day D-1 plus day D.
The next one, it's the same plus day D+1. and then it's only D-1, D, D+1 and D+2. And then, only 3 days, etc.
It's completely erratic and you can't infer some daily samples because the total samples are never calculated with the same number of daily samples in them.

Non non non, my explanation above is false actually, but it's so confusing than I hope you will excuse me : they use the data from day-1 at noon, day-2, day-3 and day-4 before noon, which makes exactly three days. They use this method every day, even if sometimes they themselves make mistakes in their reports, saying the filed only last 3 days... But actually I'm not sure if you can find the daily samples since they don't use full days...

I hope one day Gallup will come back in France !

[big bad fab]

But one day the sample is 866, the next one 945 and the one after that 1176. And then back to 960 or 877...
And as they don't publish it on Saturdays and Sundays...
It's really impossible to infer daily samples.

I hate them: it's like promising to give you chocolate and then be obliged to only look at it through a window

[Democratic Hawk]

Does nobody actually poll in respect of elections to the National Assemby?

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Does nobody actually poll in respect of elections to the National Assemby?

Nope. As sad as this sounds, nobody cares about Legislative elections because whoever wins the prez elections has its party winning legislative elections too. Le Monde published a nice analysis a couple months ago about the political trends of France and forecasting possible results of the 2012 legislatives, but they still didn't bother enough to ask for a poll...

[Sibboleth]

Coverage of those elections here will be pretty good though, when it comes to it. If that's any consolation.

[DL]

Does nobody actually poll in respect of elections to the National Assemby?

Nope. As sad as this sounds, nobody cares about Legislative elections because whoever wins the prez elections has its party winning legislative elections too. Le Monde published a nice analysis a couple months ago about the political trends of France and forecasting possible results of the 2012 legislatives, but they still didn't bother enough to ask for a poll...

It was a different story when the presidential term was seven years and there would always be "mid term" legislative election outside of the presidential election cycle in France. Now the legislative election to
Just be an exclamation point after the presidential election.

[Old Europe]

Just read on SPIEGEL Online that Angela Merkel is planning to actively campaign for Sarkozy. This unprecedented move has supposedly pissed off Hollande and the French socialists pretty bad.

Any word on this in French media??

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,813455,00.html

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Yep, this has been mentioned a couple weeks ago.

Honestly, I don't see how this could help Sarko. It's too late for him to make people buy into his new "sound, responsible and experienced" persona. And it's not like Merkel is much loved around here. Maybe mine is wishful thinking, though...

[Old Europe]

Merkel endorsement for Sarkozy makes me support Hollande even stronger.

[Vasall des Midas]

Yeah, this would be good news for Hollande if Germans could vote in French elections.

[JulioMadrid]

Just read on SPIEGEL Online that Angela Merkel is planning to actively campaign for Sarkozy. This unprecedented move has supposedly pissed off Hollande and the French socialists pretty bad.

Any word on this in French media??

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,813455,00.html

This may backfire. Merkel is the new Bismarck. French people should HATE her ¬¬

[You kip if you want to...]

Just read on SPIEGEL Online that Angela Merkel is planning to actively campaign for Sarkozy. This unprecedented move has supposedly pissed off Hollande and the French socialists pretty bad.

Any word on this in French media??

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,813455,00.html

This may backfire. Merkel is the new Bismarck. French people should HATE her ¬¬

Merkel's actively backing Sarko? Definately want Hollande to win now.

[Beet]

Merkel has nothing to worry about. A couple hundred basis points rise in the FRAGER10YR and Hollande will be on bended knee.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Ifop and the CEVIPOF have done a few interesting demographic studies w/ regards to voting intentions.

Union Membership
base poll: H 28%, S 22%, LP 20.5%, B 13.5%, M 8%, J 3%
'Active' labour force: H 27%, LP 24%, S 18%, B 13%, M 8%, J 3%, V 2%
Unionized 'actifs': H 33%, LP 19%, M 14%, B 13%, S 12%, J 4%
Non-unionized: LP 28%, H 24%, S 22%, B 14%, M 4%, J 3%, V 2%

Detail by union:
CGT: H 38%, M 22%, LP 22%, B 9%, S 4%, J 3%
CFDT: H 37%, LP 17%, B 16%, S 13%, M 8%, J 5%
FO: H 31%, LP 25%, B 14%, S 14%, M 12%, NDA 2%
CFTC: S 25%, H 22%, LP 21%, B 19%, J 5%, M 4%, Poutou 3%
SUD: H 40%, M 33%, LP 13%, Poutou 5%, J 3%, B 3%, Arthaud 2%
UNSA: H 29%, B 24%, S 11%, M 11%, LP 10%, J 5%, Morin 5%, V 3%, JPC 2%

Runoff:
base poll: 57-43 H
'Active' labour force: 61-39 H
Unionized 'actifs': 73-27 H
Non-unionized: 52-48 H

Detail by union:
CGT: 87-13 H
CFDT: 68-32 H
FO: 71-29 H
CFTC: 52-48 H
SUD: 98-2 H
UNSA: 67-33 H

LGBT
base poll: Left-G 41%, Right-D 32.5%, EXD 19.5%, MD 6.5%
Hetero: G 40.5%, D 33%, EXD 19.5%, MD 6.5%
Non-Hetero: G 49.5%, D 22.5%, EXD 19%, MD 9%
Bi: G 47%, D 25%, EXD 20%, MD 8%
Homo: G 53%, D 20%, EXD 17%, MD 10%

Hunters
base poll: H 29%, S 22.5%, LP 19.5%, M 6%, Nihous 0.5%
All hunters: LP 25%, H 22%, S 16%, M 11%, N 7%
Regular hunters: LP 22%, H 18%, S 16%, M 14%, N 10%
Occasional hunters: LP 29%, H 29%, S 18%, M 7%, N 1%

Ancestry and Nationality
base poll: H 29%, S 22.5%, LP 19.5%, Centre-C 15.5%
Pieds-noirs: LP 28%, S 26%, H 26%, C 9%
Pied-noir ancestry: H 31%, LP 24%, S 15%, C 14%

Nationality of parents - incomplete data
Spanish: H 36%, LP 24%, S 21%
Italian: H 28%, S 24%, LP 23%
Portuguese: S 28%, H 27%
Polish: S 35%, H 10%
Algerian: H 45%, M 16%, B 13%
Moroccan: H 35%, V 28%
Tunisian: S 19%, V 18%, J 18%, H 9%

Public Sector
base poll: H 29%, S 22.5%, LP 19.5%, Centre-C 15.5%
Teachers: H 41%, M 15%, B 11%, S 10%, J 10%
Uni profs: H 38%, J 21%, S 12%
HS teachers: H 30%, M 20%, B 14%, S 13%
ES teachers: H 49%, M 12%, B 10%, S 8%

State public sector: H 30%, LP 15%, S 15%, J 10%, M 8%, B 8%, Abst 8%
Hospital staff: H 33%, S 18%, LP 18%, Abst 9%, M 8%, B 4%
'FP territoriale': H 38%, LP 13%, S 11%, Abst 10%, J 9%, B 7%, M 5%
State enterprises: H 34%, LP 24%, B 10%, Abst 10%, S 9%, M 6%, J 3%

Public sector employees: H 32%, S 20%, LP 18%, Abst 10%, B 7%, M 6%, J 4%
Public sector 'cadres': H 35%, S 19%, B 11%, J 8%, M 8%, Abst 4%, LP 4%
Teachers: H 36%, S 17%, M 12%, B 10%, J 10%, Abst 6%, LP 3%
Police/military: LP 37%, S 27%, B 11%, Abst 10%, H 8%, J 3%

Religion
Catholics: S 29%, H 24%, LP 22%, B 7%, M 3%, J 3%
Muslim: H 44%, ?
Protestant: H 33%, S 21%

Boutin @ 7% with weekly-mass goers.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Very interesting stuff.

[You kip if you want to...]

What are the chances that Marine doesn't make the ballot (she's at 340 signitures) and would this be good for Sarko, by default?

[Sibboleth]

There's a fuss every year about the fascist candidate not making the ballot. But they always do.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

There's a fuss every year about the fascist candidate not making the ballot. But they always do.

Basically.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #40 - 6 February 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 25% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-February.            


      

Hollande   29,93
Sarkozy   24,29
Le Pen   18,05
Bayrou   12,72
Mélenchon   7,8
Joly   3,05
Villepin   1,66
Morin   0,39
Lepage   0,31
Dupont-Aignan   0,63
Boutin   0,18
Nihous   0,08
Arthaud   0,42
Poutou   0,2
Chevènement   0,28
   
Hollande   57,28
Sarkozy   42,72

Leftists of the world, rejoice !
Hollande is unbeatable and Sarkozy is doomed !

[Formerly Californian Tony]

Fillon was pretty optimistic when he said Sarko had 20% chances... He's more like 10% right now.