France 2012: the official thread

[batmacumba]

Moroccan: H 35%, V 28%
Tunisian: S 19%, V 18%, J 18%, H 9%

Ahn?!?!?!

V de Villepin?
WTF?

[Hashemite]

Moroccan: H 35%, V 28%
Tunisian: S 19%, V 18%, J 18%, H 9%

Ahn?!?!?!

V de Villepin?
WTF?

Villepin was born in Rabat, but I suspect a useless tiny sample size. Unless you folks know something about Franco-Tunisians/Moroccans I don't.

The Polish stuff seems weird too.

[Californian Tony]

Wasn't it a bit hasty to switch from 20 to 25% in weighting ? The rythm of polls doesn't seem to have accelerated much since last month.

[big bad fab]

Wasn't it a bit hasty to switch from 20 to 25% in weighting ? The rythm of polls doesn't seem to have accelerated much since last month.

Oh, it has in fact: I've still 3 polls to publish on my blog
22 polls are currently in the tracker, with a total sample of 13,904 RVs !!!

And, what is more, we have now one more event each week. So the rhythm of the campaign justifies this new weighting.

And it will change again on the 20th of February, which will be quite fine, since Sarkozy will probably have declared himself at this date (or will be about to do it). So, I'm pretty satisfied of my weightings so far

[Californian Tony]

Oh, it has in fact: I've still 3 polls to publish on my blog

Damn you, why didn't you publish them already !

Anyways, stay prudent. 25% might be fine, but if you raise it further the tracker could be subject to heavy and meaningless swings. Let's keep some correction based on past results until the very last days of the campaign.

[Hashemite]

People care more about boring polls in the most boring election than about my whole demographic stats?

[Californian Tony]

People care more about boring polls in the most boring election than about my whole demographic stats?

I looked through them, of course. Anyways, I'm a poll junkie and even if it's totally meaningless I look with great interest to any new movement in polling numbers.

[big bad fab]

Oh, it has in fact: I've still 3 polls to publish on my blog

Damn you, why didn't you publish them already !

Anyways, stay prudent. 25% might be fine, but if you raise it further the tracker could be subject to heavy and meaningless swings. Let's keep some correction based on past results until the very last days of the campaign.

Published yesterday night

Well, I also need not to have excessive delays in swings or new trends. I'll see, but for the moment, I stick to my changes in weightings.


As for Hash's numbers, well, they are impressive, but not quite expected and not very original.

The only numbers that can be surprising are:

- for hunters, the leftism is even greater than expected, and might explain that Nihous is so low in polls. Sure, hunters are really not from Sologne

- for Moroccans and Tunisians, it's probably just statistical noise, but it can be explained by the "chiraco-gaullism": being anti-US (or viewed as such) is probably popular with Arabs (at least with Arabs in more "enlightened" context, hence the bad result for Villepin among Algerians, who anyway can't be fans of gaullism...)

- for Polish and Portuguese, Sarkozy can probably thank the weakness of Boutin and the fact that there is no candidate able to carry Catholic values.

- the difference between Pieds-Noirs and their children is no surprise, but is very interesting.

- among civil servants, territorial ones are the more leftist and that's again no surprise, but it's interesting to see it confirmed.

[Californian Tony]

When you get new poll results, I'd be grateful if you could publish them in these thread as soon as possible. It is understandable that you need time to write a full analysis to post on your blog, but here you'd only need to give us the rough numbers.

[Vasall des Midas]

Probably not Porte d'Eau materiel.

[Californian Tony]

Probably not Porte d'Eau materiel.

GAME CHANGER

[big bad fab]

Probably not Porte d'Eau materiel.

GAME CHANGER

I don't think so, frankly: remember how many times Royal's flat was "visited" ?
Only the loonies face break-in, it seems

[big bad fab]

When you get new poll results, I'd be grateful if you could publish them in these thread as soon as possible. It is understandable that you need time to write a full analysis to post on your blog, but here you'd only need to give us the rough numbers.

I don't have enough time. Usually, they are published quite quickly on my blog (and readable even for our non-French friends ).

[You kip if you want to...]

Sarko on gay marriage:

En ces temps troublés où notre société a besoin de repères, je ne crois pas qu'il faille brouiller l'image de cette institution sociale essentielle qu'est le mariage

In these troubled times where our society is in need of repair, I don't believe that it's necessary to smudge/to blur (i'm not sure, smudge sounds more bigoted) the image of this essential social institution that is marriage.

I don't think i've ever read anything so populist. "In these troubled times", eugh, troll President.

[Senator MaxQue]

There is a big mistake in your translation.

a besoin de repères= needs some landmarks.

[Hashemite]

Sarkozy is basically running really far on the right, having failed to understand that FN voters in 2007 didn't vote for him because he could say xenophobic stuff, but rather because they liked his record in government. If you look at 2007 polls, you'll see that his big shazaam about an Immigration Ministry actually turned off FN voters, while concrete stuff like thre Gare du Nord riots turned them on.

[Senator MaxQue]

Hard to believe, but it seems than candidate Sarkozy manages to be more incompetent than president Sarkozy.

[Californian Tony]

Yeah, if you are unlucky enough to hear the french news, you'll learn how or Interior Minister said that "all civilizations aren't worth the same", or how Sarko announced he would call referendums on unemployment's indemnization and on immigration rights. He is desperate, and he thinks that by looking like a xenophobe he will reconquer the FN's electorate and reproduce his 2007 exploit. I don't know if one should laugh at so much stupidity or cry at so much lack of principles.

Bottom line : it is impossible for any sound person not to loath such a pathetic, petty, shameless politician. Any right-winger with a minimum of principles should seriously start consider other voting options in 2007.

[Senator MaxQue]

Bottom line : it is impossible for any sound person not to loath such a pathetic, petty, shameless politician. Any right-winger with a minimum of principles should seriously start consider other voting options in 2007.

Oh, I hear about that even here. I'm following French politics, you know.
And, I know a French right-centrist which is considering other options since a while.

[Senator MaxQue]

His position on gay marriage is obvious.

In exchange, Boutin (the French Santorum) endorsed her.

[Californian Tony]

Bottom line : it is impossible for any sound person not to loath such a pathetic, petty, shameless politician. Any right-winger with a minimum of principles should seriously start consider other voting options in 2007.

Oh, I hear about that even here. I'm following French politics, you know.
And, I know a French right-centrist which is considering other options since a while.

I was refering to a certain French right-winger who often posts in this thread.


And yeah, also part of his strategy is blocking any right-wing/center-right candidate from running. Hence pressures on Borloo supporters when he was considering a run, buying back all of Morin's former supporters, and now this pandering to Boutin. He is obsessed with his 1st round results, probably thinking he will get some momentum from a good performance, and forgets that the real problem is his inability to attract moderates in general (which means that former Borloo voters have flown to Bayrou and even Hollande rather than him).

[Hashemite]

Just to illustrate my point:



At any rate, there is 0 chance that I'll vote for Sarkozy in the runoff. I might have voted for him, but he was nice enough to remind me that his cabinet includes Petainistes, that he's always a faux populist and now he's proven to me that he hates freedom and is a moralfag. I'll probably write in Rick Perry.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #41 - 13 February 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 25% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-February.            


      

Hollande   30,51
Sarkozy   24,66
Le Pen   17,82
Bayrou   12,6
Mélenchon   7,84
Joly   2,79
Villepin   1,39
Morin   0,35
Lepage   0,28
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Boutin   0,18
Nihous   0,15
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,23
Chevènement   0,14
Cheminade   0,00

Hollande   57,53
Sarkozy   42,47

BVA has started to test Cheminade, so I include him in my tracker. He can only go up
But having a LaRouchist in this tracker is enough to make me feel "happy" (I mean "amused": don't make any mistake, I despise Cheminade)... After all, now that I know I've lost "my" candidate and that my second round candidate is doomed with a failed strategy...

So, Boutin is out. Morin is set to drop this week too.
Even Villepin seems to have lost some enthusiasm.
I don't believe Lepage wants really to be a candidate.
And Nihous really seems to have difficulties in gathering signatures from mayors.
After, maybe we'll have only Dupont-Aignan, Arthaud and Poutou as small candidates.


The older I grow, the more Catholic I am.
I'm really disgusted by the leftist paradigm of medias and of teachers. I deeply believe that this modern or post-modern left, having destroyed the old 3rd Republic school, is the best ally of this mass-consumption capitalism which is only looking for stupid consumers.
I deeply believe that we are already in a society of genetic manipulations, of merchandization of the human body, of "good old" euthanasia like the 1930s Sweden, that we'll soon be forbidden to keep our children at home.
I deeply believe that all these so-called social advances are only the other face of our deep moral decline due to mass capitalism. It's only two sides of materialism.

And so, you know, how can I pick a candidate ?!?
I'm completely lost in the current political landscape.
Sarkozy is now a weird mix of rightist populism, of so-called colbertism and of some stupid reaganesque policies.
Boutin, who is a bit mad on a personal level, has dropped her bid.
Bayrou is a loony, who has betrayed his old political tradition and is unable to decide on anything.
Hollande is personally respectable, but is backed by all those leftists (please read "gauchistes", not "hommes et femmes de gauche"), especially the young ones, that are a real moral danger: Hamon, Bruno Julliard, Hammadie, Lienemann, Delanoë, Lebranchu, Aubry, Lang, Dray, Mamère, Joly, Duflot, Contassot, etc. Without any money, the left will only change things on social matters and I can't vote for that.

So, yeah, I'm now a zombie, like in Atlasia
It has no real importance anymore. President Hollande doesn't need me

[Hashemite]

I never read the news, but this headline was hilarious:

Le candidat Sarkozy défendra le gouvernement « du peuple, par le peuple et pour le peuple »

I see he's gonna full-blast populist on us.

[big bad fab]

Morin is about to rally Sarkozy, without being able to influence his plans: Morin has really lost everything...

Some around Borloo wonder why Bayrou doesn't phone Borloo...
Imagine... It would a real event... But Bayrou is Bayrou: alone and proud. But alone.


Unfortunately, this election is as boring as anticipated, whatever we try to do

I'll probably soon switch to trying to predict Hollande's government and to try to assess who will lead the right after the big defeat.