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| | |-+  France 2012: the official thread
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 122274 times)
Antonio V
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« Reply #1575 on: March 14, 2012, 03:56:41 pm »
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New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please!

Either it was an outlier, or the level of uncertainty is raising dramatically. Having a 4 points difference in two polls published within a couple days is pretty rare.

@Iannis : Yes, but why now and not before ? There's nothing singificantly new from Sarko's side this week. I could understand the bounce with his candidacy declaration, but why now ?
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #1576 on: March 14, 2012, 03:59:33 pm »
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New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please!

Either it was an outlier, or the level of uncertainty is raising dramatically. Having a 4 points difference in two polls published within a couple days is pretty rare.

@Iannis : Yes, but why now and not before ? There's nothing singificantly new from Sarko's side this week. I could understand the bounce with his candidacy declaration, but why now ?

Sarkonuts are convinced than Villepinte is a key moment of the campaign.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1577 on: March 14, 2012, 04:36:56 pm »
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New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please!

Either it was an outlier, or the level of uncertainty is raising dramatically. Having a 4 points difference in two polls published within a couple days is pretty rare.

@Iannis : Yes, but why now and not before ? There's nothing singificantly new from Sarko's side this week. I could understand the bounce with his candidacy declaration, but why now ?

Sarkonuts are convinced than Villepinte is a key moment of the campaign.

I've always been puzzled by this idea that one meeting is supposed to suddenly change everything. (well, OK, there was Le Bourget, but it was basically the first time Hollande had said something in 3 months)
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #1578 on: March 14, 2012, 05:00:46 pm »

The Sarkobump (i.e. him pulling ahead in the first round) has so far only been reported by Ifop's Paris Match tracker (which also has him losing only 46-54 in the runoff). I'm no longer a Sarkozyst, but Ifop seems closer to reality, at least in the runoff.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #1579 on: March 14, 2012, 06:09:44 pm »
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CSA tonight (see my blog Wink) has Sarkozy and Hollande on a par at 28.
I've already noticed that CSA is surprisingly close to the average this round (a bit like ARG having become more reliable in 2012 Tongue).

Sarkozy has bounced a bit just because he has stolen votes from Le Pen, that's very simple. And, as Hollande has lost 1 or 2 points to Mélenchon, there are neck and neck.
When you see the changes in the transfers from 1st to 2nd rounds, it's very clear.

Antonio, it's not just about Villepinte. Of course a bit, just because of the media buzz (well, Le Bourget wasn't really a great, great speech with many new ideas Tongue and, still, it had an effect, not per se, but because of the noise and the "story" in the medias).

But the election hasn't really changed.
I repeat and repeat again that Sarkozy has a strategy of trying to win "out of the people", whereas this election will be won "out of the centre".
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Enjoy the French elections !
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Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #1580 on: March 14, 2012, 08:02:37 pm »
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The Wall Street Journal calling Sarko 'Nicolas Le Pen' because of his immigration policy. Tongue
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« Reply #1581 on: March 14, 2012, 09:08:18 pm »
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Good to see Mélenchon rise to a more competitive level. I wouldn't be worried for Hollande until I seen a dropping off of the second-round leads.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1582 on: March 15, 2012, 04:38:32 am »
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Why don't we have more polls anyways ? Where are IPSOS, BVA or OpinionWay ?
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #1583 on: March 15, 2012, 11:59:42 am »
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The Wall Street Journal calling Sarko 'Nicolas Le Pen' because of his immigration policy. Tongue

He also was attacked in the EP over those.
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« Reply #1584 on: March 15, 2012, 12:01:29 pm »
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The Wall Street Journal calling Sarko 'Nicolas Le Pen' because of his immigration policy. Tongue

He also was attacked in the EP over those.

Romney style pandering to steal votes for the far-right. "LOOK! I can be extreme and controversial as well!"
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« Reply #1585 on: March 15, 2012, 12:13:29 pm »
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Oh, and Francois met with Rubalcaba today in Spain, following on from his meeting with Miliband a fortnight or so ago. Nice to see than not all of Europe's politicians (ergo, Merkel, Rajoy, Cameron) are right-wing hacks.
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« Reply #1586 on: March 15, 2012, 04:11:21 pm »

Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1587 on: March 15, 2012, 05:25:18 pm »
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Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.

Apart from TNS-SOFRES, there have been no other new poll this week. Indeed, I really don't understand what the hell the other pollster are waiting for.
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #1588 on: March 15, 2012, 05:51:49 pm »
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Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.

Apart from TNS-SOFRES, there have been no other new poll this week. Indeed, I really don't understand what the hell the other pollster are waiting for.

Blame the medias Tongue
But I think IPSOS will soon publish another one.
Unfortunately, I'm not sur Math will come back to tell us which polls are in the making, since the article he stole from my blog some weeks ago Wink

Anyway, I must acknowledge something is troubling in the IFOP poll of today...
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Antonio V
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E: -6.45, S: -4.87

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« Reply #1589 on: March 15, 2012, 06:32:27 pm »
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We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
big bad fab
filliatre
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E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #1590 on: March 15, 2012, 06:42:28 pm »
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We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week Grin

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Antonio V
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E: -6.45, S: -4.87

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« Reply #1591 on: March 15, 2012, 06:44:55 pm »
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We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week Grin

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

The rolling poll of course doesn't count among the 7... But I really think the pollsters (or the media, or whatever) could make more effort. France is 20 years late on this matter.
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #1592 on: March 15, 2012, 09:25:25 pm »
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Oh, and Francois met with Rubalcaba today in Spain, following on from his meeting with Miliband a fortnight or so ago. Nice to see than not all of Europe's politicians (ergo, Merkel, Rajoy, Cameron) are right-wing hacks.

He also met with President Komorowski and former PM (and currend SLD head) Leszek Miller last week...but Donald Tusk didn't meet with him.
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big bad fab
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E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #1593 on: March 16, 2012, 03:53:42 am »
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We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week Grin

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

The rolling poll of course doesn't count among the 7... But I really think the pollsters (or the media, or whatever) could make more effort. France is 20 years late on this matter.

Of course, in the US, just for the primaries, you have a tsunami of polls.
But, when you think about the diversity of the US, the geographical and demographic sizes of the US, well, France's pollsters are less bad than before...
But, I agree that, TODAY, there should be, there smust be, an IPSOS, a BVA and a Harris polls: we need them, we crave for them, because something new may be in the making Grin Tongue
Though I can't believe the fundamentals of this election have changed... And still...
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Antonio V
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E: -6.45, S: -4.87

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« Reply #1594 on: March 16, 2012, 03:58:01 am »
Ignore

We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week Grin

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

The rolling poll of course doesn't count among the 7... But I really think the pollsters (or the media, or whatever) could make more effort. France is 20 years late on this matter.

Of course, in the US, just for the primaries, you have a tsunami of polls.
But, when you think about the diversity of the US, the geographical and demographic sizes of the US, well, France's pollsters are less bad than before...
But, I agree that, TODAY, there should be, there smust be, an IPSOS, a BVA and a Harris polls: we need them, we crave for them, because something new may be in the making Grin Tongue
Though I can't believe the fundamentals of this election have changed... And still...

These polls will be l'heure de vérité. So far, two pollsters are announcing a Sarko surge - one which usually underestimates Hollande and the other which usually leans to the left. Another one, which is considered as a pretty average one, instead sees Hollande still high. Nothing can save us apart from new polls.
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Antonio V
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E: -6.45, S: -4.87

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« Reply #1595 on: March 16, 2012, 07:52:08 am »
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By the way, before next Monday :






And what do you mean with "there should be, there smust be, an IPSOS, a BVA and a Harris polls" ? You think they will come or it's only a hope ?
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #1596 on: March 16, 2012, 08:02:01 pm »
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Mélenchon under the 10% bar. I dream to see the 22 april the 5 candidates between 15 and 19%
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batmacumba
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« Reply #1597 on: March 17, 2012, 01:04:53 am »
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With the current numbers, some other leftist would have to take votes from Hollande, besides Mélenchon, which seems pretty unprobable by now. Maybe M. Hulot shall get back from his vacations? (I bet no French can bear this joke anymore.)
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1598 on: March 17, 2012, 05:22:32 am »
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No new poll yesterday ! WTF ?!?

With the current numbers, some other leftist would have to take votes from Hollande, besides Mélenchon, which seems pretty unprobable by now. Maybe M. Hulot shall get back from his vacations? (I bet no French can bear this joke anymore.)

Well, there are a few other problems to your posts :
- The deadline for candidacies was yesterday
- Hulot isn't really a "leftist" anyways, he probably would have taken centrist/independent votes, instead
- Running after pathetically losing your primary is rarely a good thing to do
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Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
big bad fab
filliatre
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E: 1.42, S: 4.87

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« Reply #1599 on: March 17, 2012, 04:47:21 pm »
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No new poll yesterday ! WTF ?!?

There is an OW for Le Figaro: I'll publish it this sunday.
They are on par: 27.5 and it's good nexs for Hollande, I think, even the daily IFOP, because Bayrou isn't gaining on him, in fact.
(and 55/45).
« Last Edit: March 17, 2012, 04:48:56 pm by big bad fab »Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
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