France 2012: the official thread

[Californian Tony]

New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please!

Either it was an outlier, or the level of uncertainty is raising dramatically. Having a 4 points difference in two polls published within a couple days is pretty rare.

@Iannis : Yes, but why now and not before ? There's nothing singificantly new from Sarko's side this week. I could understand the bounce with his candidacy declaration, but why now ?

[Senator MaxQue]

New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please!

Either it was an outlier, or the level of uncertainty is raising dramatically. Having a 4 points difference in two polls published within a couple days is pretty rare.

@Iannis : Yes, but why now and not before ? There's nothing singificantly new from Sarko's side this week. I could understand the bounce with his candidacy declaration, but why now ?

Sarkonuts are convinced than Villepinte is a key moment of the campaign.

[Californian Tony]

New poll from TNS:
First round:
Hollande: 30,00
Sarkozy: 26,00
Le Pen: 16,00
Bayrou: 11,50
Melenchon: 10,00
Joly: 3,00
Villepin: 1,00
Arthaud: 0,50
Poutou: 0,50

Second round
Hollande: 58,00
Sarkozy: 42,00

Thank god, Sarkozy's bounce appears to have been a brief phenomenon.  Hopefully.  Please, France don't screw this up.  Just please keep these numbers like this just for 3 more months, please!

Either it was an outlier, or the level of uncertainty is raising dramatically. Having a 4 points difference in two polls published within a couple days is pretty rare.

@Iannis : Yes, but why now and not before ? There's nothing singificantly new from Sarko's side this week. I could understand the bounce with his candidacy declaration, but why now ?

Sarkonuts are convinced than Villepinte is a key moment of the campaign.

I've always been puzzled by this idea that one meeting is supposed to suddenly change everything. (well, OK, there was Le Bourget, but it was basically the first time Hollande had said something in 3 months)

[Hashemite]

The Sarkobump (i.e. him pulling ahead in the first round) has so far only been reported by Ifop's Paris Match tracker (which also has him losing only 46-54 in the runoff). I'm no longer a Sarkozyst, but Ifop seems closer to reality, at least in the runoff.

[big bad fab]

CSA tonight (see my blog ) has Sarkozy and Hollande on a par at 28.
I've already noticed that CSA is surprisingly close to the average this round (a bit like ARG having become more reliable in 2012 ).

Sarkozy has bounced a bit just because he has stolen votes from Le Pen, that's very simple. And, as Hollande has lost 1 or 2 points to Mélenchon, there are neck and neck.
When you see the changes in the transfers from 1st to 2nd rounds, it's very clear.

Antonio, it's not just about Villepinte. Of course a bit, just because of the media buzz (well, Le Bourget wasn't really a great, great speech with many new ideas and, still, it had an effect, not per se, but because of the noise and the "story" in the medias).

But the election hasn't really changed.
I repeat and repeat again that Sarkozy has a strategy of trying to win "out of the people", whereas this election will be won "out of the centre".

[You kip if you want to...]

The Wall Street Journal calling Sarko 'Nicolas Le Pen' because of his immigration policy.

[Leftbehind]

Good to see Mélenchon rise to a more competitive level. I wouldn't be worried for Hollande until I seen a dropping off of the second-round leads.

[Californian Tony]

Why don't we have more polls anyways ? Where are IPSOS, BVA or OpinionWay ?

[Insula Dei]

The Wall Street Journal calling Sarko 'Nicolas Le Pen' because of his immigration policy.

He also was attacked in the EP over those.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Wall Street Journal calling Sarko 'Nicolas Le Pen' because of his immigration policy.

He also was attacked in the EP over those.

Romney style pandering to steal votes for the far-right. "LOOK! I can be extreme and controversial as well!"

[You kip if you want to...]

Oh, and Francois met with Rubalcaba today in Spain, following on from his meeting with Miliband a fortnight or so ago. Nice to see than not all of Europe's politicians (ergo, Merkel, Rajoy, Cameron) are right-wing hacks.

[Hashemite]

Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.

[Californian Tony]

Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.

Apart from TNS-SOFRES, there have been no other new poll this week. Indeed, I really don't understand what the hell the other pollster are waiting for.

[big bad fab]

Down to 53.5-46.5 in the runoff according to Ifop, which, with CSA (?), seems to be the only pollster picking up such a Sarkobump.

Apart from TNS-SOFRES, there have been no other new poll this week. Indeed, I really don't understand what the hell the other pollster are waiting for.

Blame the medias
But I think IPSOS will soon publish another one.
Unfortunately, I'm not sur Math will come back to tell us which polls are in the making, since the article he stole from my blog some weeks ago

Anyway, I must acknowledge something is troubling in the IFOP poll of today...

[Californian Tony]

We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

[big bad fab]

We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

[Californian Tony]

We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

The rolling poll of course doesn't count among the 7... But I really think the pollsters (or the media, or whatever) could make more effort. France is 20 years late on this matter.

[JonBidinger]

Oh, and Francois met with Rubalcaba today in Spain, following on from his meeting with Miliband a fortnight or so ago. Nice to see than not all of Europe's politicians (ergo, Merkel, Rajoy, Cameron) are right-wing hacks.

He also met with President Komorowski and former PM (and currend SLD head) Leszek Miller last week...but Donald Tusk didn't meet with him.

[big bad fab]

We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

The rolling poll of course doesn't count among the 7... But I really think the pollsters (or the media, or whatever) could make more effort. France is 20 years late on this matter.

Of course, in the US, just for the primaries, you have a tsunami of polls.
But, when you think about the diversity of the US, the geographical and demographic sizes of the US, well, France's pollsters are less bad than before...
But, I agree that, TODAY, there should be, there smust be, an IPSOS, a BVA and a Harris polls: we need them, we crave for them, because something new may be in the making
Though I can't believe the fundamentals of this election have changed... And still...

[Californian Tony]

We need more effing polls. We need at least 7 polls per week. I think I won't survive without.

You already have 7 polls per week

BTW, I don't know if IPSOS will make another daily poll, like in 2007. Probably not and that's a pity.

The rolling poll of course doesn't count among the 7... But I really think the pollsters (or the media, or whatever) could make more effort. France is 20 years late on this matter.

Of course, in the US, just for the primaries, you have a tsunami of polls.
But, when you think about the diversity of the US, the geographical and demographic sizes of the US, well, France's pollsters are less bad than before...
But, I agree that, TODAY, there should be, there smust be, an IPSOS, a BVA and a Harris polls: we need them, we crave for them, because something new may be in the making
Though I can't believe the fundamentals of this election have changed... And still...

These polls will be l'heure de vérité. So far, two pollsters are announcing a Sarko surge - one which usually underestimates Hollande and the other which usually leans to the left. Another one, which is considered as a pretty average one, instead sees Hollande still high. Nothing can save us apart from new polls.

[Californian Tony]

By the way, before next Monday :






And what do you mean with "there should be, there smust be, an IPSOS, a BVA and a Harris polls" ? You think they will come or it's only a hope ?

[Colbert]

Mélenchon under the 10% bar. I dream to see the 22 april the 5 candidates between 15 and 19%

[batmacumba]

With the current numbers, some other leftist would have to take votes from Hollande, besides Mélenchon, which seems pretty unprobable by now. Maybe M. Hulot shall get back from his vacations? (I bet no French can bear this joke anymore.)

[Californian Tony]

No new poll yesterday ! WTF ?!?

With the current numbers, some other leftist would have to take votes from Hollande, besides Mélenchon, which seems pretty unprobable by now. Maybe M. Hulot shall get back from his vacations? (I bet no French can bear this joke anymore.)

Well, there are a few other problems to your posts :
- The deadline for candidacies was yesterday
- Hulot isn't really a "leftist" anyways, he probably would have taken centrist/independent votes, instead
- Running after pathetically losing your primary is rarely a good thing to do

[big bad fab]

No new poll yesterday ! WTF ?!?

There is an OW for Le Figaro: I'll publish it this sunday.
They are on par: 27.5 and it's good nexs for Hollande, I think, even the daily IFOP, because Bayrou isn't gaining on him, in fact.
(and 55/45).