France 2012: the official thread

[MaxQue]

Is that really appropriate here?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can someone of the French posters please translate some of this:

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1818-1-study_file.pdf

It's a poll about sex practices among the voters or French political parties.

I only got that FN and Far Left voters have the most sex each month, the most sex partners and the most experience with anal sex.

But some of the other questions I didn't understand.

I can, but maybe we should take it to a different thread.

[Vosem]

Can someone of the French posters please translate some of this:

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1818-1-study_file.pdf

It's a poll about sex practices among the voters or French political parties.

I only got that FN and Far Left voters have the most sex each month, the most sex partners and the most experience with anal sex.

But some of the other questions I didn't understand.

I can, but maybe we should take it to a different thread.

I would very much like to see this.

[Colbert]

carfeful : this note is a google translation. Apologize by advance for this ugly english


Tonight, in the daily IFOP poll : 44% total left

this figure seems both very low, after 10 years of Sarkozyism, and very high, given the catastrophic results of the left all presidential period except 74-88


Holland should be the candidate's usual PS score between 22 and 25%

remains between 18 and 23% for the rest of the left according to the two hypotheses (holland at 22 or 25, left at 40 or 45)


if bayrou remains at 10, still 50% between Sarko, MLP and dupont.

10 of 30 pts sarko of 2007 came from the EXD. It seems for now to have succeeded once again to win them over, leaving MLP to 20 or 15 (assuming non-left at 60 or 55)

for Sarko, if the left are 45, it drops to 25.

If 50% of Sarko-Frontists the 2007 MLP return home, it gives sarko 25 (40% left) or sarko 20 (45% left), and MLP 20 (40% left) or 25 (45% left)



good, then I would not consider the electronic machines to vote, deubeulou-like, which are obviously there to defraud.


Another hypothesis, a collapse of Holland and rising méluche. Let 5% of the debris left from the left (artaud, Poutou, joly) was either 40 or 35% to be divided between the two candidates.

The PS is the party scores the most volatile electoral history. So we could hypothetically have 20/20 between the two, or even 25-15 advantage Mélenchon, but I doubt it anyway.


In short, bayrou seems out of the game in 2007, he took advantage of the massive rejection of royal from a lot of people left and  rejection of Sarko's right-handed speech.

But the other four can qualify. Only final not: Holland vs Mélenchon.

[RogueBeaver]

Can you post it in French?

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/9138802/France-election-2012-Francois-Hollande-team-says-Nicolas-Sarkozy-like-a-British-Conservative-PM.html

François, president!

[RogueBeaver]

To which Sarko should reply: "I'll take it as a compliment." Now if only he can bait Hollande into calling him a liberal... then he'd hit the rhetorical jackpot.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To which Sarko should reply: "I'll take it as a compliment." Now if only he can bait Hollande into calling him a liberal... then he'd hit the rhetorical jackpot.

Haha, no. French are no big fans of Thatcher.

[Franzl]

I'd view it as a compliment, but I doubt the French would.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/9138802/France-election-2012-Francois-Hollande-team-says-Nicolas-Sarkozy-like-a-British-Conservative-PM.html

François, president!

NORMAL POSITION CAUSES CONTROVERSY IN FRANCE; EXPECT RIOTING SOON

[Colbert]

Can you post it in French?

ce soir, dans le sondage quotidien de l'IFOP-MEDEF, total gauches 44%

ce chiffre me semble à la fois très faible, après 10 ans de sarkozysme, et bien haut, étant donné les résultats catastrophiques des gauches à toutes les présidentielles, période 74-88 exceptée


hollande devrait faire le score habituel du candidat PS, entre 22 et 25%

reste entre 18 et 23% pour le reste des gauches selon les deux hypothèses (hollande à 22 ou 25, gauches à 40 ou 45)


si bayrou reste à 10, reste 50 % entre sarko, MLP et dupont.

10 des 30 pts de sarko de 2007 venaient de l'EXD. Il semble pour le moment avoir réussi une fois de plus à les séduire, ce qui laisse MLP à 20 ou 15 (hypothèse non-gauches à 60 ou à 55)

pour sarko, si les gauches font 45, ça tombe à 25.

Si 50 % des sarko-frontistes de 2007 reviennent chez MLP, ça donne sarko 25 (gauches à 40%) ou sarko 20 (gauches à 45%), et MLP 20 (gauches à 40%) ou 25 (gauches à 45%)



bon, là, je tiens pas compte des machines électroniques à voter, deubeulou-like, qui sont évidemment là pour frauder.


Autre hypothèse, un effrondrement de hollande et une montée de méluche. Laissons 5 % aux débris de la gauche de la gauche (artaud, poutou, joly), on a soit 40 soit 35 % à se partager entre les deux candidats.

Le PS est le parti aux scores les plus instables de l'histoire électorale. Donc on pourrait hypothétiquement avoir 20/20 entre les deux, voire 25-15 avantage mélenchon, mais ça m'étonnerait quand même.


Bref, bayrou me semble out du jeu. En 2007, il avait profité du rejet massif de royal de la part d'un bon nombre de gens de gauche et du rejet du discours droitier de sarko.

Mais les 4 autres peuvent se qualifier. Seule finale impossible : hollande vs mélenchon.

[Hash]

Ifop published a study on Melenchon's electorate:

Average: 13%

Males: 15% vs. Females: 12%
18-24: 16% (up 10)
25-34: 12% (up 6)
35-49: 14% (up 6)
50-64: 17% (up 7)
65+: 9% (up 1)
Public employees: 17% (up 7)
Private employees: 14% (up 6)
Employers, independent workers: 10% (up 6)

Insee socio-demographic category (expanded)

Artisans, commerçants, agriculteurs, chefs d'entreprise: 10% (+5)
Professions libérales et assimilés: 11% (+6)
Cadres d'entreprise (administratifs et commerciaux, ingénieurs et cadres techniques): 9% (+4)
Cadres de la fonction publique (professions scientifiques, professions de l'information, des arts et spectacles, enseignants, …): 17% (+9)
Professions intermédiaires de la fonction publique et assimilés, de la santé et du travail social: 19% (+5)
Professions administratives et commerciales des entreprises, techniciens, contremaîtres et agents de maîtrise: 15% (+4)
Employés civils et agents de service de la fonction publique, policiers et militaires: 12% (+5)
Employés administratifs d'entreprise, employés de commerce: 15% (+10)
Personnels des services directs aux particuliers (assistantes maternelles, concierges, aides à domicile, coiffeurs, …): 8% (+1)
Ouvriers qualifiés: 15% (+6)
Ouvriers non qualifiés: 20% (+10)

2007 vote:

Besancenot: 63% (+25)
Buffet: 76% (+2)
Bove/Voynet: 26% (+8)
Crazy Lady: 15% (+8)
Bayrou: 11% (+6)
JMLP: 3% (+2)
Nico: 2% (+1)

[RogueBeaver]

Economist editorial. Can't say I disagree with them, quite the opposite.

http://www.economist.com/node/21551461

[RogueBeaver]

@Hashemite: Interesting that the far-leftie does well with white collars, cops and military.

[big bad fab]

@Hashemite: Interesting that the far-leftie does well with white collars, cops and military.

Beware: these categories are large, but the samples tiny.
And Mélenchon isn't strong among military and cops, but among "employés et agents de service de la fonction publique", i.e. low civil servants.
As for white collars, he is strong among PUBLIC white collars... Well, are uni professors and teachers really "cadres supérieurs" nowadays ? I doubt it fiercely...
And France is the paradise for "social sciences" teachers...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Economist editorial. Can't say I disagree with them, quite the opposite.

http://www.economist.com/node/21551461

Same old platitudes regarding "conpetitivity", too much taxes, lazy workers, etc ?

[Franzl]

Economist editorial. Can't say I disagree with them, quite the opposite.

http://www.economist.com/node/21551461

Quite a reasonable and realistic description, yes.

[Hash]

@Hashemite: Interesting that the far-leftie does well with white collars, cops and military.

He isn't. Cevipof-Ifop's recent study on public employees and their voting patterns revealed cops/military to be the only right-leaning group. For example, they estimated their 2007 vote as being 54% right, 24% EXD and 18% leftie. They estimated their voting intentions as MLP 37%, Sarko 27%, Bayrou 11%, abstention 10%, left 11% (back when Sarkozy was polling much lower).

[Iannis]

Economist editorial. Can't say I disagree with them, quite the opposite.

http://www.economist.com/node/21551461

I completely agree. In particular:

"The French live with this national contradiction—enjoying the wealth and jobs that global companies have brought, while denouncing the system that created them—because the governing elite and the media convince them that they are victims of global markets. Trade unionists get far more air-time than businessmen."

People simply don't realize where the wealth comes from, the productivity of large companies, they think that it comes from State's social services, while they are just a consequence of that productivity. Like in Italy in the media, in school, in universities, only rhetoric of trade union, of left-leaning teachers are heard, companies' world is quite mysterious and misundesrtood. French people will wake up quite hardly. Too bad they will just blame the evil anglo-saxon or german capitalist instead than themselves.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #48 - 2 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   

      

Hollande   27,43
Sarkozy   28,23
Le Pen   15,57
Bayrou   11,67
Mélenchon   12,62
Joly   2,34
(Villepin)   0,09
(Lepage)   0,05
Dupont-Aignan   0,92
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,15


Hollande   54,23
Sarkozy   45,77

Cheminadementum !

More seriously, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande for the first time in the history of this tracker... and Mélenchon is now in 4th position.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

[LastVoter]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Just like Santorum will win the Republican Nomination.

[redcommander]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #48 - 2 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   

      

Hollande   27,43
Sarkozy   28,23
Le Pen   15,57
Bayrou   11,67
Mélenchon   12,62
Joly   2,34
(Villepin)   0,09
(Lepage)   0,05
Dupont-Aignan   0,92
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,15


Hollande   54,23
Sarkozy   45,77

Cheminadementum !

More seriously, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande for the first time in the history of this tracker... and Mélenchon is now in 4th position.

Fabulous!!!!! Now let's just hope Mélenchon is makes it to the second round, and Sarkozy will have cake walk.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I despise wishful thinking, wherever it comes from.

[Phony Moderate]

It's somewhat amusing to see American Republicans cheer on someone who openly supports Obama.