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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 172975 times)
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« Reply #1700 on: April 03, 2012, 08:12:46 am »

A map of who signed for who (also includes the party affiliation of the elected official who signed)...

http://owni.fr/2012/04/01/app-quel-candidat-votre-elu-a-t-il-parraine/
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The Prime Minister of New Zealand:

17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #1701 on: April 03, 2012, 09:55:55 am »
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It's somewhat amusing to see American Republicans cheer on someone who openly supports Obama. Wink

My comments aren't cheering; they are a prediction. I've soured on Sarkozy since 2007 anyway (though I obviously prefer him to Hollande).
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« Reply #1702 on: April 03, 2012, 09:57:10 am »
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/hollande-widens-second-round-lead-over-sarkozy-poll-shows-1-.html

Hollande ahead 28-27 in the premier tour and extending he lead to 56-44 in the deuxieme tour. As I type this, i'm listening to Hollande attacking Melenchon (or, atleast, dissuading left voters from making a protest vote for him), live in Blois. Finally a change of strategy?

No idea why the Hollande campaign uses Daily Motion over Youtube though.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2012, 10:02:05 am by I'm Mitt Romney and I like grits »Logged

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« Reply #1703 on: April 03, 2012, 11:22:03 am »
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/hollande-widens-second-round-lead-over-sarkozy-poll-shows-1-.html

Hollande ahead 28-27 in the premier tour and extending he lead to 56-44 in the deuxieme tour. As I type this, i'm listening to Hollande attacking Melenchon (or, atleast, dissuading left voters from making a protest vote for him), live in Blois. Finally a change of strategy?

No idea why the Hollande campaign uses Daily Motion over Youtube though.

So, we have 56% according to BVA, 55% according to IPSOS, 54% according to LH2, 53.5% according to IFOP and 53% according to Harris. Looks like the uncertainty is increasing again.
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« Reply #1704 on: April 03, 2012, 11:34:55 am »
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I had a dream last night in which Sarkozy popped up and the number "48%".

Don't know though if this is from a future poll or the election night result, or nothing at all.
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« Reply #1705 on: April 03, 2012, 11:37:28 am »
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I had a dream last night in which Sarkozy popped up and the number "48%".

Don't know though if this is from a future poll or the election night result, or nothing at all.

If the final result is 52/48 (whoever the winner is) I will curse you.
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« Reply #1706 on: April 03, 2012, 01:16:01 pm »
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Are there any polls on who would win in a Melenchon-Le Pen second round? (Obviously not a possibility, but still).
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« Reply #1707 on: April 03, 2012, 01:19:50 pm »
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Are there any polls on who would win in a Melenchon-Le Pen second round? (Obviously not a possibility, but still).

French pollsters don't have much imagination. But my guts say Mélenchon would win with around 54-55. "La bête immonde" still scares more people than "le couteau entre les dents" (for now).
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



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« Reply #1708 on: April 03, 2012, 03:43:54 pm »
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/hollande-widens-second-round-lead-over-sarkozy-poll-shows-1-.html

Hollande ahead 28-27 in the premier tour and extending he lead to 56-44 in the deuxieme tour. As I type this, i'm listening to Hollande attacking Melenchon (or, atleast, dissuading left voters from making a protest vote for him), live in Blois. Finally a change of strategy?

No idea why the Hollande campaign uses Daily Motion over Youtube though.

So, we have 56% according to BVA, 55% according to IPSOS, 54% according to LH2, 53.5% according to IFOP and 53% according to Harris. Looks like the uncertainty is increasing again.

IPSOS and IFOP are the best, so I guess it's still 54 Wink
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
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« Reply #1709 on: April 06, 2012, 11:46:02 am »
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« Reply #1710 on: April 06, 2012, 04:53:47 pm »
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.
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« Reply #1711 on: April 06, 2012, 04:55:30 pm »
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones, ep. 5x09
You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #1712 on: April 06, 2012, 04:59:06 pm »
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

I know right. If Hollande's campaign is even half good, they'll take such an accusation by the neck and tells voters that France's only in such a state because of Sarko and the Right who've been there for the past 17 years.

Right-wing governments really take things to a new low when it looks like they'll lose. I'm just waiting for Sarko's "New Labour, New Danger" moment.
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« Reply #1713 on: April 06, 2012, 05:10:02 pm »
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.
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« Reply #1714 on: April 06, 2012, 05:13:17 pm »
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

The same Merkel-Sarko-Rajoy-Cameron-Monti consensus is making the problem worse and not better though, to be fair.
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« Reply #1715 on: April 06, 2012, 05:14:32 pm »
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.
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« Reply #1716 on: April 06, 2012, 05:17:27 pm »
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.
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« Reply #1717 on: April 06, 2012, 05:21:46 pm »
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones, ep. 5x09
You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #1718 on: April 06, 2012, 05:24:45 pm »
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).

Lest we forget the UK in 2015.
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« Reply #1719 on: April 06, 2012, 05:46:41 pm »
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Which crisis do you mean? Half the problem is that there's more than one, even if they're related.
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« Reply #1720 on: April 07, 2012, 05:05:34 am »
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(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for  Germany as well, in 2013).
Unless something really major happens to the SPD - either a dramatic turnaround and policy renewal or a wholesale collapse - fuggeddaboudit.
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« Reply #1721 on: April 07, 2012, 05:07:08 am »
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Which crisis do you mean? Half the problem is that there's more than one, even if they're related.

The key of the problem is, IMO, the lack of coordination in economic policies at the European level. In short, we need EuroBonds to end the debt crisis once forever, and we need a pan-european stimulus bill to restore growth.
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones, ep. 5x09
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« Reply #1722 on: April 07, 2012, 05:08:31 am »
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(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for  Germany as well, in 2013).
Unless something really major happens to the SPD - either a dramatic turnaround and policy renewal or a wholesale collapse - fuggeddaboudit.

Even if we don't get a fully left-wing coalition, getting rid the FDP will be a great step forward nonetheless.
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RIP Greece. RIP European Federalism.



"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favor."

Tyrion Lannister, Game of Thrones, ep. 5x09
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« Reply #1723 on: April 07, 2012, 06:03:21 am »
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Not much of one in regard to Crisis politics. Sad
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« Reply #1724 on: April 07, 2012, 06:53:44 am »
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PSOE is really angry with Sarkozy. Everytime I watch the news or open "El Pais" there's a new commentary of a socialist politician demmanding Sarko to apologize for what he said (that with the left in France, the country would have been in the same situation that Spain or Greece).

One thing is true. The situation hasn't improved with Rajoy as President. Zapatero kept us below 400 points in the risk premium. Last Thursday it was at 410 IIRC. And workers have lost rights and can be fired more easily now, students like me are seeing the education go worse each year (thanks, Esperanza Aguirre), social security with PP isn't a priority... They're destroying the welfare state and the economy isn't improving (even if it was, I think it isn't worth of it if we don't have a reasonable education, rights, social security, etc)
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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