France 2012: the official thread

[Senator MaxQue]

I hope than the current trend continue and than Hollande pass in front or Sarkozy again.

[You kip if you want to...]

Oh wow, only just realised how close the first round is. François, President!

[Californian Tony]

The most recent polls seem to give Hollande a small edge (even though it might be due to their bias). Basically, OpinionWay and IFOP have Sarko ahead (by 1 and 1.5 respectively) whereas LH2, BVA, TNS-Sofres and CSA see Hollande back in lead (by 2.5, 3, 2 and 1). OpinionWay and IFOP usually tend to favor Sarko whereas LH2 and BVA tend to favor Hollande. CSA seems to be especially crappy this year and Sofres has been quite weird. So, I'd say it is either a virtual tie or a small edge to Hollande.

[I left.]

So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

[Californian Tony]

So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

With my usual pessimism, I'd give him 10%. I'm pretty sure Nate would give him less than 5%.

[I left.]

So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

With my usual pessimism, I'd give him 10%. I'm pretty sure Nate would give him less than 5%.

Oh that sure of it? For some reason I was still thinking about 2:1 odds or so.

[Californian Tony]

So what are the odds of Sarkozy pulling this off?

With my usual pessimism, I'd give him 10%. I'm pretty sure Nate would give him less than 5%.

Oh that sure of it? For some reason I was still thinking about 2:1 odds or so.

He's polling at 45-46 with 3 weeks left. That means he would have to pick up 1.5 point per week to win. You'll agree that in our electoral experience this doesn't happen quite often.

Note that 10% is still far from "almost impossible". I'm pretty sure that Fabien would be even more confident over the outcome.

[I left.]

Sorry Haven't been following the everyday events closely. Just had it in my head that Sarkozy was much stronger than anyone would have expected, look for a closer race, etc.

Thanks for the information.

[Californian Tony]

Sorry Haven't been following the everyday events closely. Just had it in my head that Sarkozy was much stronger than anyone would have expected, look for a closer race, etc.

Thanks for the information.

He made pretty impressive gains in the second half of March, overtaking Hollande in the first round and improving his 2nd round performance from 43-44 to 46-47, but nowadays his momentum is gone, and he's back to a virtual tie in the 1st round and a 45-46 score in the second. The trends in the final weeks before the 1st round will be important to follow, but I doubt he could pull any upset at this point (his best chance would be to beat Hollande and perform over 30% so as to get a post-results bounce, but he's far from reaching this goal).

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, Sarkozy seems to have fallen back again from 46/47% to about 44% recently. And also in the 1st round he seems to be slightly behind. Any reasons for that ?

[Californian Tony]

Yeah, Sarkozy seems to have fallen back again from 46/47% to about 44% recently. And also in the 1st round he seems to be slightly behind. Any reasons for that ?

His campaign has been particularly inaudible these recent times, with the presentation of his official program being an utter flop and his recent nitpicking on unimportant issues like driver's licence. The fact that, the official campaign having begun, all candidates are entitled to the exact same airtime on radio and TV, also prevents him from monopolising attention as he constantly strives to.

Hollande hasn't done much recently, but my impression is that voters are apreciating his constance and his reluctance to change his political positioning and strategy at every occasion as Sarkozy does. He's clearly seen as a reassuring figure and Sarkozy has so far been unable to damage this image.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, Sarkozy seems to have fallen back again from 46/47% to about 44% recently. And also in the 1st round he seems to be slightly behind. Any reasons for that ?

His campaign has been particularly inaudible these recent times, with the presentation of his official program being an utter flop and his recent nitpicking on unimportant issues like driver's licence. The fact that, the official campaign having begun, all candidates are entitled to the exact same airtime on radio and TV, also prevents him from monopolising attention as he constantly strives to.

Hollande hasn't done much recently, but my impression is that voters are apreciating his constance and his reluctance to change his political positioning and strategy at every occasion as Sarkozy does. He's clearly seen as a reassuring figure and Sarkozy has so far been unable to damage this image.

I've read in my "Standard" newspaper that I subscribe to that because the media has to give every candidate the same airtime now and because there are some crazy candidates in there the media doesn't really want to report about, the media isn't airing that much about the major candidates either compared with previous campaigns. True ?

What about Melenchon ? Do you think he might surprise on election day and get close to 20%, taking votes away from Hollande ? Or do you think he will get close to 20%, yet Hollande still wins ? Or do you think Melenchon will flop ?

[Californian Tony]

I've read in my "Standard" newspaper that I subscribe to that because the media has to give every candidate the same airtime now and because there are some crazy candidates in there the media doesn't really want to report about, the media isn't airing that much about the major candidates either compared with previous campaigns. True ?

That might be true to some extent, even though 2012 is certainly not the worst campaign in terms of crazy candidates sh*tfest (see 2002 as the absolute worst). There haven't been much news about the presidential campaign in the last day, apart from the usual "XXX is holding a meeting in YYY today" (and they also mentioned the "prends le pouvoir sur moi" clip on the radio today ). I'd understand pretty well if media don't want to spend all this time talking about Lyndon LaRouche Jr., Philippe "Smack" or the stalinist lady (who, hilariously, is an economics teacher).

What about Melenchon ? Do you think he might surprise on election day and get close to 20%, taking votes away from Hollande ? Or do you think he will get close to 20%, yet Hollande still wins ? Or do you think Melenchon will flop ?

That's getting weird. The two most recent polls (CSA and TNS) have shown him at unseen heights (17% and 16% respectively), whereas the preceding ones seemed to suggest he had peaked at 14% and was starting to decrease a bit. CSA has an epically poor track record, constantly showing results very far from the consensus among pollsters and in a very erratic and illogical way (for example, this poll also showed Hollande losing 2 points and Sarrko losing 4(!) while the second round was back to early march levels - 57/43). TNS-sofres is a bit less erratic, but hasn't polled much in this cycle so it has to be taken carefully. So, so far, it's hard to tell. Personally, I have a hard time seeing Mélenchon above 15% (considering the left's tendency to regroup among Hollande to make sure he's not in danger) and since Le Pen has solidified her support to 15-16%, I don't think he will overtake her. There is still a possibility, of course.

[© Tweed the Younger]

no chance of Melenchon nipping Hollande (or Sarko) at the wire, right?

[Californian Tony]

no chance of Melenchon nipping Hollande (or Sarko) at the wire, right?

Nope.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I saw today in our news that Sarkozy is taking heat from all quarters for his stunt of airing his (supposedly ultra-secret) teleconference with Obama in order to give the impression that Obama is somehow endorsing him for reelection. Is that true?

[Sibboleth]

no chance of Melenchon nipping Hollande (or Sarko) at the wire, right?

It's not 1969 anymore, so non.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/15/sarkozy-obama-videoconference-tv-stunt

Reminds me of an episode of The Thick of It when a dying government gets the celebrities in to try and connect with the public:

"We are a dying government! Our hair's falling out and we're coughing up blood and our kids are asking us to change the will."

Sums up the Sarko campaign fairly well.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #50 - 16 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   

      

Hollande   27,71
Sarkozy   27,72
Le Pen   15,48
Bayrou   10,07
Mélenchon   14,11
Joly   2,41   
Dupont-Aignan   1,12   
Arthaud   0,68
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,06

Hollande   54,67
Sarkozy   45,33

This 0.01 hasn't been done on purpose

Bah... What can I say... The worst country, the worst right, the worst candidate...

Vive Alain Juppé !

[Californian Tony]

0.01% ? ROFL

So, the final version of your tracker will only include polls from today to friday 20 ? How many can we expect in these 5 days ?

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Chirac to vote for Hollande....

[Keystone Phil]

Chirac to vote for Hollande....

Sarkosurge Part II on the way!

[Californian Tony]

Chirac to vote for Hollande....

He had said that long ago.

But still, what an ridiculous situation for Sarko...

[You kip if you want to...]

Chirac to vote for Hollande....

He had said that long ago.

But still, what an ridiculous situation for Sarko...

L'air de la Corrèze.

[Hashemite]

Chirac probably voted for Royal in 2007, and if he didn't it's only because she was a mentally unstable psycho. He might have voted Bayrou, but he hates him too.