Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 01, 2016, 03:38:55 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hash)
| | |-+  France 2012: the official thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 68 69 70 71 72 [73] 74 75 76 77 78 ... 87 Print
Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 231156 times)
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11139
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1800 on: April 17, 2012, 04:45:18 pm »
Ignore

Why introduce that lunatic? Tongue

Comic Relief. Wink
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9018
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #1801 on: April 17, 2012, 04:55:29 pm »
Ignore

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

Don't understand why he hasn't joined UKIP yet.
Logged

Jante's Law Revivalist
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40980
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1802 on: April 17, 2012, 05:58:30 pm »
Ignore

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

Don't understand why he hasn't joined UKIP yet.

Or why he hasn't taken American nationality and joined the GOP.
Logged


"The major political task that we face in the next five months is to make certain that Donald [Drumpf] is defeated and defeated badly."

Bernie Sanders, 06/14/2016
© tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36747
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1803 on: April 17, 2012, 06:45:16 pm »
Ignore

are there any Melenchon vs Sarko polls being done for fun or academics?
Logged

I wanna contribute to the chaos
I don't wanna watch and then complain,
'cause I am through finding blame
that is the decision that I have made
Jante's Law Revivalist
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40980
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1804 on: April 17, 2012, 07:43:08 pm »
Ignore

are there any Melenchon vs Sarko polls being done for fun or academics?

Nope. That would be interesting to see (so would all the possible combinations between Hollande, Sarko, Le Pen, Mélenchon and Bayrou) but pollsters are somewhat realistic.
Logged


"The major political task that we face in the next five months is to make certain that Donald [Drumpf] is defeated and defeated badly."

Bernie Sanders, 06/14/2016
Polygraph Polygraphovich Sharikov
Kalwejt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 43950


View Profile
« Reply #1805 on: April 17, 2012, 07:44:44 pm »
Ignore

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

This post is so Winfieldesque.
Logged


Gangsta
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8586
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

P P

View Profile
« Reply #1806 on: April 17, 2012, 08:43:53 pm »
Ignore

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Logged

Gary Johnson/William Weld '16. Ohioan Independent proud of FSU heritage masquerading as Illinoian Republican to avoid Trumpist deportation squads.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52849


View Profile
« Reply #1807 on: April 17, 2012, 09:18:20 pm »
Ignore

I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.

You've contributed so much.
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52849


View Profile
« Reply #1808 on: April 17, 2012, 09:19:44 pm »
Ignore

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

This post is so Winfieldesque.

I'm not a Sarkozy fanboy so...no, not quite.
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4416
Thailand


View Profile
« Reply #1809 on: April 17, 2012, 09:21:08 pm »
Ignore

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...
Logged
Marokai Backbeat
Marokai Blue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17570
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -7.39


View Profile
« Reply #1810 on: April 17, 2012, 09:30:02 pm »
Ignore

I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.

You've contributed so much.

Well I shouldn't have said that, I know. I actually do understand your presence in this thread, since it's about just getting on the nerves of lefties, but Wormyguy's weirdly random stubborn posturing over Italy's record (or lack thereof) of military accomplishment completely baffles me.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52849


View Profile
« Reply #1811 on: April 17, 2012, 09:35:00 pm »
Ignore

I don't understand either Phil or Wormyguy's presence in this thread.

You've contributed so much.

Well I shouldn't have said that, I know. I actually do understand your presence in this thread, since it's about just getting on the nerves of lefties, but Wormyguy's weirdly random stubborn posturing over Italy's record (or lack thereof) of military accomplishment completely baffles me.

Actually, no, I'm really following the race so that's why I'm posting here.
Logged



The entire country is pretty much Republican.
Marokai Backbeat
Marokai Blue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17570
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -7.39


View Profile
« Reply #1812 on: April 17, 2012, 09:41:02 pm »
Ignore

I suppose it's just a difference in posting philosophy. I follow international election threads pretty much constantly, but I only rarely post in them unless I have anything to add. Wormyguy's posts did get me curious about his motivations, though. Purely for my own purposes. Oh well.
Logged
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8586
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

P P

View Profile
« Reply #1813 on: April 17, 2012, 09:43:07 pm »
Ignore

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...
No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041
Logged

Gary Johnson/William Weld '16. Ohioan Independent proud of FSU heritage masquerading as Illinoian Republican to avoid Trumpist deportation squads.
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4416
Thailand


View Profile
« Reply #1814 on: April 17, 2012, 11:59:35 pm »
Ignore

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...
No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041
The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it. Just the mention of Europe will have neutrons firing off Socialism in his brain. This is pretty much like calling Obama a socialist.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2012, 12:02:59 am by seatown »Logged
Jante's Law Revivalist
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40980
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1815 on: April 18, 2012, 04:33:57 am »
Ignore

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:

In the coming months ?? The countdown in my sig indicates the number of days left, FYI.


Quote
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Even if you exclude social issues, the GOP is still insane. Even the UMP is saner on that regard.
Logged


"The major political task that we face in the next five months is to make certain that Donald [Drumpf] is defeated and defeated badly."

Bernie Sanders, 06/14/2016
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8586
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

P P

View Profile
« Reply #1816 on: April 18, 2012, 05:51:48 am »
Ignore

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

Quote
The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).
Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...
No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041
The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it. Just the mention of Europe will have neutrons firing off Socialism in his brain. This is pretty much like calling Obama a socialist.
The Economist does tilt to the right, but this article includes the following specific excerpts I was trying to point out:

Quote from: The Economist
He has declared that “laissez-faire capitalism is over” and railed against the “dictatorship of the market”. He is setting up a “strategic national investment fund” to take stakes in French companies so as to protect them from foreign predators. His prime minister, François Fillon, has threatened to nationalise banks unless they lend more to companies. And Mr Sarkozy has also pledged to create 100,000 state-subsidised jobs of just the sort favoured by a former Socialist government, which he denounced vigorously during his election campaign.

This lurch to the left has not gone unremarked by real socialists. Martin Schulz, German leader of the Socialist group in the European Parliament, has congratulated the French president for “speaking like a real European socialist”. It was a taunt that the president chose, uncharacteristically, not to dismiss. “Have I become socialist?” he wondered. “Perhaps.” The ambiguity is such that some on the left now see a need to reclaim their ideology. A testy Pierre Moscovici, a French Socialist, insisted to the newspaper Le Parisien recently that “No, Mr Sarkozy is not a socialist.”
I think most Democrats wouldn't even contemplate some of the actions in the first paragraph (though, then again, some would). And then, in the second paragraph, we see Moscovici saying Sarkozy isn't left-wing enough, which proves my basic point.

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:

In the coming months ?? The countdown in my sig indicates the number of days left, FYI.

I feel dumb; you got me. Somehow I was under the impression that the first round would take place in July and the runoff in August -- stupid here.

Quote
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Even if you exclude social issues, the GOP is still insane. Even the UMP is saner on that regard.

To a French Socialist, the UMP is "saner" than the GOP. To somebody who would be critical of a nationwide universal health-care plan, critical of a lack of nationwide gun rights, and so on and so forth, the GOP is "saner" than the UMP.
Logged

Gary Johnson/William Weld '16. Ohioan Independent proud of FSU heritage masquerading as Illinoian Republican to avoid Trumpist deportation squads.
Colbert
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 425
France


View Profile
« Reply #1817 on: April 18, 2012, 07:45:08 am »
Ignore

polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11139
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1818 on: April 18, 2012, 10:24:14 am »
Ignore

Who would win in a hypothetical second round between Mélenchon and Le Pen?
Logged
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10345
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #1819 on: April 18, 2012, 10:43:42 am »
Ignore

Who would win in a hypothetical second round between Mélenchon and Le Pen?

Mélenchon, I think.
Logged
Acting like I'm Morrissey w/o the wit
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3271
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #1820 on: April 18, 2012, 12:59:56 pm »
Ignore

It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.
Logged

Jante's Law Revivalist
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40980
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1821 on: April 18, 2012, 02:09:05 pm »
Ignore

polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?

I don't know where you get this idea from, but it isn't backed by any data. Sarko is gonna finish 10+ points higher than Le Pen unless something changes dramatically.


It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.

Not, it isn't. The likelihood of such scenario is neglectable.
Logged


"The major political task that we face in the next five months is to make certain that Donald [Drumpf] is defeated and defeated badly."

Bernie Sanders, 06/14/2016
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31855
Colombia


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1822 on: April 18, 2012, 02:46:30 pm »

Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

On a side note, I got sent the ballots and campaign lit for all candidates by the embassy.
Logged



17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
Jante's Law Revivalist
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40980
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1823 on: April 18, 2012, 04:11:22 pm »
Ignore

Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.
Logged


"The major political task that we face in the next five months is to make certain that Donald [Drumpf] is defeated and defeated badly."

Bernie Sanders, 06/14/2016
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9018
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #1824 on: April 18, 2012, 04:19:03 pm »
Ignore

Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.

Imagine if François actually won 58-42 though... We can dream.
Logged

Pages: 1 ... 68 69 70 71 72 [73] 74 75 76 77 78 ... 87 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines