France 2012: the official thread

[You kip if you want to...]

Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.

Imagine if François actually won 58-42 though... We can dream.

[Leftbehind]

It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.

Not, it isn't. The likelihood of such scenario is neglectable.

*Negligible. Of course it is. Putting aside its likeliness, it's interesting to see on a psephological basis the potential support levels each could garner, and to compare them to historical trends. Most people interested in polling would also be interested in seeing such a run-off's effects. It's not as if there's a plethora of candidates to make this a difficult task, this election's been conveniently condensed down to five candidates, two of which - the likely contenders - having been (extensively) polled already.

[You kip if you want to...]

I'm reading in the UK press that the Sarko campaign's got to that inevitable point of every losing campaign: senior allies (Fillon, et al.) are starting to point fingers.

[Colbert]

polls trends seems clear : MLP will be close-to-close with NS sunday.

Maybe a final FH-MLP?

I don't know where you get this idea from, but it isn't backed by any data. Sarko is gonna finish 10+ points higher than Le Pen unless something changes dramatically.

well...We'll see sunday (sunday after 20h for me, I don't want to know before via twitter or facebook, i wanna the excitation of the last minute before 20:00 )

[Swedish Cheese]

It's pretty ridiculous that no pollster's polled these hypothetical match-ups.

Not, it isn't. The likelihood of such scenario is neglectable.

I'm surprised the silly ZOMG all candidates must have the exact amount of media attention rule doesn't force pollsters to poll all candidates in the 2nd round. I mean how awful to actually aknowledge that some candidates are less relevant.

[ModerateCoward]

Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

The truth is that France faces a choice between two socialists. Both favour a command economy, a measure of protectionism, entrenched entitlements ('les acquis sociaux'), deeper European integration, and a dirigiste state. No wonder they argue so fiercely about immigration: that's virtually the only area where they disagree. Bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet, as they say in France. Tweedle-Dum and Tweedle-Dumber.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

It's a shame criticism of the NHS helps the left (though it's almost certainly so, unfortunately).

I haven't been paying the French election much attention until now, but I hope to give it more attention in the coming months (which, frankly, it deserves). Some first thoughts:
- Hollande will almost certainly win.
- Hollande, Sarkozy, lePen, Melenchon, and Bayrou seem like they'll be the only candidates to break 10%. It's very difficult for me to support any of the five, but the Front National scares me a bit, so I suppose I'll back Sarkozy as the most right-wing but not-scary person running. With luck, France will drift sane-right over time (a la American GOP minus social (religious, cultural, such as abortion, gay marriage) issues).

Didn't France try the American approach for past five years? Guess where they are now...

No, absolutely not. http://www.economist.com/node/12607041?story_id=12607041

The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it. Just the mention of Europe will have neutrons firing off Socialism in his brain. This is pretty much like calling Obama a socialist.

The Economist does tilt to the right, but this article includes the following specific excerpts I was trying to point out:

He has declared that “laissez-faire capitalism is over” and railed against the “dictatorship of the market”. He is setting up a “strategic national investment fund” to take stakes in French companies so as to protect them from foreign predators. His prime minister, François Fillon, has threatened to nationalise banks unless they lend more to companies. And Mr Sarkozy has also pledged to create 100,000 state-subsidised jobs of just the sort favoured by a former Socialist government, which he denounced vigorously during his election campaign.

This lurch to the left has not gone unremarked by real socialists. Martin Schulz, German leader of the Socialist group in the European Parliament, has congratulated the French president for “speaking like a real European socialist”. It was a taunt that the president chose, uncharacteristically, not to dismiss. “Have I become socialist?” he wondered. “Perhaps.” The ambiguity is such that some on the left now see a need to reclaim their ideology. A testy Pierre Moscovici, a French Socialist, insisted to the newspaper Le Parisien recently that “No, Mr Sarkozy is not a socialist.”

I think most Democrats wouldn't even contemplate some of the actions in the first paragraph (though, then again, some would). And then, in the second paragraph, we see Moscovici saying Sarkozy isn't left-wing enough, which proves my basic point.

Sarkozy is a Statist who favors the rich. Hollande is "Socialist"who favors state solutions that benefit the have-nots. Democrats cannot pass left-wing legislation because of a right-wing faction in their party(Blue dogs), I think we call agree that the dogs are right-wingers. Also depending on your ideology you might think that the (New) Democratic party itself is right-wing. There are a few right-wingers that are congratulating Obama behind the scenes for passing right-wing laws too. They can't do it openly because of self-censure(aka the RINO phenomenon).

[Sam Spade]

Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.

[HST1948]

Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.

Imagine if François actually won 58-42 though... We can dream.

CSA does seem like it is an outlier, but CSA and some other polls that I have seen seem to have shown a slight trend back to Hollande over the last week or so.  Is this real, or just something that I am reading too far into. If it is real, what is its cause (could it be the video of the video of video conferance between Sarko and Obama?).  I've try to keep up with that polls and analysis by reading http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/, but alas by French is lacking, and translators can only do so much. I apologize for my lack of knowledge, but am interested in hearing what everyone has to say.  

[Volrath50]

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.

You know what they say Sam, about how it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt?
That.

[redcommander]

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed.

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed.

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

I've got news for you: it was the conservatives who threw our economy off a cliff between 2004-09.

[ModerateCoward]

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed.

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

No, they need to tell Germany and EU neoliberalists to [inks]  off. Considering that with France being red, it's time to turn on the neoliberalist owners and basically shutdown threaten to shutdown trade in Europe if Germany doesn't want to give France, Spain, Greece etc more favorable terms, considering they have been  those countries for past 10 years.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/2006German_exports.PNG

[Vasall des Midas]

The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it.

Not... exactly.

[ModerateCoward]

The economist is a right-wing news agency. Might as well ask Glenn Beck about it.

Not... exactly.

Ok, there is  a difference between the economist and crazy, but hyperbole was necessary.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

This post is so Winfieldesque.

I'm not a Sarkozy fanboy so...no, not quite.

Then I'm really afraid to ask who is your favorite. I may not like your answer

[Swedish Cheese]

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed.

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

I've got news for you: it was the conservatives who threw our economy off a cliff between 2004-09.

Yes it was the Conservative party, but because they spent like drunk Socialists. You can hardly accuse austerity politics for the crisis in Greece. It was spending (and people not paying their taxes). Who did the spending is hardly relevant. This whole talking-point from the left that austerity politics are not the way to go, is bull.

Sweden had an economic crisis in the early 90's because both Socialist and Right-wing goverments spent and lend way too much money. Then in 96 the new Social Democratic PM cut the budget so much his base revolted and went voting for the commies, and kept a really tight austerity budget, and it worked and that is the reason Sweden is not part of the crisis today.   

(Not that Sarkozy would pursue a responsible Economic policy, and Hollande's talk of overturning European consensus is quite obviously just pondering to the left-wing base, so it won't really matter how this election goes.)

[You kip if you want to...]

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed.

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

Because the UMP aren't at all risky and have kept France in the clear...

And just look at the polls for the 2nd round, all of them so far this week have had Hollande at or above 55%. Interesting.

[Sam Spade]

Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.

You know what they say Sam, about how it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt?
That.

I think that every time you post.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

I stand by my position that either Hollande is lying about his campaign promises and he'll in fact cut deeper than Sarkozy, or France will default under his rule.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think that every time you post.

I assure you, the feeling is mutual.

[You kip if you want to...]

I wonder how DSK'd be doing, sans the rape thing.

[Sibboleth]

He would have been suddenly (hilariously?) destroyed by the whole procuring thing.

[Volrath50]

Yeah, I wish the allegations against DSK hadn't surfaced until he was the nominee, so he could epicly self destruct and not even make the second ballot.

[RogueBeaver]

Same here. Though on the flip side DSK might have been the one to push ahead with serious structural reforms. Schroder, not Kohl, did the heavy entitlement lifting in Germany. Jospin privatized more than any of his rightist predecessors ever did. Hollande isn't that sort, not by a mile.