France 2012: the official thread
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 358051 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1875 on: April 21, 2012, 08:46:35 AM »

So... I'm off to vote. Still hesitating a bit.

Go with Joly. She has nice views and is a good person.



How lucky man you are !
This tracker was designed for you... Just before the end he prevails...

Now, imagine this with Aubry Wink
Maybe Mélenchon wouldn't have surged so much, but Bayrou would have been higher.

Meh, I don't know... I think Aubry would have been lower than Hollande in the immediate post-primary season, but probably higher than him in the december-january period. Then, who knows ? Of course she was a more vulnerable to Sarko's attacks than Hollande, but she also had some advantages. Anyways, it doesn't matter anymore. Wink
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Hash
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« Reply #1876 on: April 21, 2012, 09:00:13 AM »

I voted for Eva Joly, and I'm happy with that. My mom for Sarko, my dad for Marion.

As for NDA, I'd quicker eat my hat than vote for that stupid asshat.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1877 on: April 21, 2012, 09:05:18 AM »

Seriously? ouch'n.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1878 on: April 21, 2012, 09:09:09 AM »

Yeah, Hash's parents sound pretty terrifying.

When do we get results? Tonight?
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Andrea
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« Reply #1879 on: April 21, 2012, 09:16:02 AM »
« Edited: April 21, 2012, 09:29:57 AM by Andrea »

Voters in Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, Guyane, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin have started to vote for French presidency.
Polynésie will start today at 8 PM (Paris time) and Nouvelle Caledonie at 11pm

Closing time in Outre-Mèr according to French mainland time zone:
Saint-Pierre et Miquelon: today 22:30
Guyane: today at 23:30
Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin: tonight at 0:30
Polynésie will finish tomorrow morning at 6:30
Nouvelle Caledonie: 9:30

Reunion and Mayotte will vote tomorrow: 6 AM to 4:30PM in La Reunion and 7 AM to 7:30 PM in Mayotee.

70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1880 on: April 21, 2012, 09:26:10 AM »

70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes).
That is seriously bizarre.

And is also why (as claimed over in another thread) results and exit polls start leaking before 8.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1881 on: April 21, 2012, 09:55:55 AM »

70% of municipalities will close polling stations at 18:00 tomorrow with a few cities (for ex Toulon, Béziers, Sète, Rennes, Orléans) carrying on until 19:00. Polls will close at 20:00 in Ile de France (except Seine-Marne), Nice, Marseille, Strasbourg, Reims, Montpellier, Toulouse parts of Haute-Garonne, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Bordeaux, Angers and Nantes).
That is seriously bizarre.

And is also why (as claimed over in another thread) results and exit polls start leaking before 8.

Yeah, I don't understand why they can't harmonize closing times in metropolitan France. It's not like we're the USA. Tongue


As for NDA, I'd quicker eat my hat than vote for that stupid asshat.

Ironically I quite liked him a couple years ago before I realized he was a Villiers bis / Le Pen lite. Shame on me for seriously buying that neogaullist bullsh*t.
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Andrea
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« Reply #1882 on: April 21, 2012, 10:11:16 AM »

what is the logic behind big cities voting longer? I mean, they are bigger, but they should have more polling stations anyway. Because city people go out for a weekend at la campagne to be back in town for dinner?
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big bad fab
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« Reply #1883 on: April 21, 2012, 10:24:13 AM »
« Edited: April 21, 2012, 10:25:53 AM by big bad fab »

Guys, I've posted on my blog the last graphs by pollster. May be of some interest if you want to try to predict all this stuff.

If you just follow the trends of my Big Bad Tracker, this should be something like this:
Hollande 27.8 -> 28
Sarkozy 27-> 26.5
Le Pen 15.7 -> 16
Mélenchon 13.8 -> 13.5
Bayrou 10.3 -> 10.5
Joly 2.4 -> 2.5
Dupont-Aignan 1.4 -> 1.5
Poutou 1.1 -> 1
Arthaud 0.5 -> 0.5
Cheminade 0.1 -> 0


Now, I've tried to add effects from poll and media momentum, mobilization, electoral sociology and its consequences on turnout, tactical vote in a "useful" way. And it gives me my personal prediction:
Sarkozy 27.6
Hollande 26.7
Le Pen 14.8
Mélenchon 13.8
Bayrou 9.6
Dupont-Aignan 2.5
Poutou 2.1
Joly 1.9
Arthaud 0.8
Cheminade 0.2


Of course, I'll be completely wrong, as usual when it's about French elections Tongue
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1884 on: April 21, 2012, 10:33:02 AM »

So you think Sarko will pull ahead ? Wow, it seems for once we're actually both optimistic. Tongue
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Hash
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« Reply #1885 on: April 21, 2012, 10:35:02 AM »

I think Cheminade will win easily, given that the aliens will rig the polls.
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« Reply #1886 on: April 21, 2012, 11:30:21 AM »

guess I would be voting New Anticapitalist after Melenchon topped out beyond hope.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1887 on: April 21, 2012, 11:31:42 AM »

I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #1888 on: April 21, 2012, 12:01:12 PM »

I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.

It was long ago. A way to try to unite the "left of the left"... with the success you know...
Mélenchon will be able to do it, in the polls, but not among the parties.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1889 on: April 21, 2012, 12:03:21 PM »

I love how the Communist Revolutionary League renamed itself the New Anticapitalist Party.

Panderers.

It was long ago. A way to try to unite the "left of the left"... with the success you know...
Mélenchon will be able to do it, in the polls, but not among the parties.
Three years is not a long time in politics. Not nearly as long as a week. Wink

Besides, both that and the PG happened at a time when there were no major elections up in France and my attention had wavered elsewhere.
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Hash
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« Reply #1890 on: April 21, 2012, 02:49:18 PM »

The NPA was supposed to be a temporary name, but the members opted to keep it when they could have adopted a final name. It is a terrible tinpot name, but it fits with the clientele.

There was a brief period before Melenchon and the FG became a serious credible actor, between late 2008 and early 2009, where the NPA was doing really well in the polls (8-9% iirc) and Besancenot was riding really high. Then he took a huge dumping, which was partly of his own making.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #1891 on: April 21, 2012, 04:33:53 PM »

No other predictions ?
Tender ?
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #1892 on: April 21, 2012, 04:34:26 PM »

As per usual, a results thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152487.0

I'll temporarily lock this thread tomorrow.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #1893 on: April 21, 2012, 05:33:35 PM »

My French teacher will vote for Melenchon (Hollande in the 2nd round).
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1894 on: April 21, 2012, 08:14:42 PM »

The Daily Hate Mail continues to be a parody of itself.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1895 on: April 21, 2012, 08:40:44 PM »

Insert reference to 'Hurrah for the Blackshirts!' here.
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Vosem
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« Reply #1896 on: April 21, 2012, 09:13:44 PM »

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1897 on: April 21, 2012, 10:45:45 PM »

Just realized BBC World will have live result coverage (whenever I get to watch, that is). Much better than settling for an Internet stream. Smiley
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1898 on: April 21, 2012, 11:47:06 PM »

Well let's check the record; the reunified Italy actually won most of its wars (if only because they tended to pick on weak opponents or choose the winning side).

Won:

Austro-Prussian War (on a technicality)
Occupation of the Papal States
Occupation of Eritrea
Boxer Rebellion
Italo-Ottoman War
World War I
Second Italo-Ethiopian War
Occupation of Albania

Lost:

First Italo-Ethiopian War
World War II

LOL! Yeah, come tell me how many wars Italians won. I am very impressed.


For a Greek to chide another country for being militarily inept is amusing.  Have you been to Trebizond, Smyrna, or Constantinople lately?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1899 on: April 22, 2012, 02:20:36 AM »

For a Greek to chide another country for being militarily inept is amusing.  Have you been to Trebizond, Smyrna, or Constantinople lately?

No. But considering our size it's pretty amazing how many empires we defeated through the course of history, from Persians to Italians.
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