France 2012: the official thread
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 358072 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1900 on: April 22, 2012, 03:22:43 AM »

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.
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YL
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« Reply #1901 on: April 22, 2012, 04:02:37 AM »

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.

Given that said "newspaper" is rabidly xenophobic, has no credible position on the economy and is rabidly anti-EU, it sounds like they've found the right candidate...
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1902 on: April 22, 2012, 05:58:38 AM »

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.

Given that said "newspaper" is rabidly xenophobic, has no credible position on the economy and is rabidly anti-EU, it sounds like they've found the right candidate...

Please, guys, this is actually an Irish (Canadian-Irish to be exact) self-hating far-right loon.
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Andrea
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« Reply #1903 on: April 22, 2012, 07:53:32 AM »

La Tribune de Geneve has published results from Saint Pierre, Saint Martin, Guadaloupe, Martinique and Guyane
http://www.tdg.ch/monde/francois-hollande-arrive-tete-outremer/story/13506241
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« Reply #1904 on: April 22, 2012, 08:03:54 AM »

This thread will now be locked, as per custom and all.
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« Reply #1905 on: April 25, 2012, 12:38:30 PM »

This thread is now unlocked. Discussion of raw results, maps and other interesting stuff still goes in the results thread.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #1906 on: April 25, 2012, 01:20:47 PM »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2134636/Francois-Hollande-Sacre-bleu-Is-France-line-fail.html?ito=feeds-newsxml Roll Eyes
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big bad fab
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« Reply #1907 on: April 25, 2012, 04:03:39 PM »
« Edited: April 25, 2012, 04:05:57 PM by big bad fab »

2012 Big Bad Tracker #52 - 23 April 2012   



(the current thread was locked, so I'm a bit late to give you these numbers here Tongue)      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 55,11
Sarkozy 44,89

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.59
Sarkozy 45.41

Daily IFOP poll steady at 55-45 since Monday.

On my blog, an analysis of pollsters: Harris is the best one !... behind the Big Bad Tracker of course Grin !

Harris clearly ahead, with IFOP, TNS-Sofres, OpinionWay and IPSOS not so far away.
LH2 and CSA are quite bad. BVA is bad.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1908 on: April 25, 2012, 04:34:33 PM »

Anyways, here are the updated charts. I added the results to the 1st round tracker.





I don't think it's useful to add a tracker with voting transfer. The hypothetic advantages of correcting possible selection biases is overshadowed by the disadvantage of working with tiny samples.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1909 on: April 27, 2012, 11:42:47 AM »

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1910 on: April 27, 2012, 12:33:56 PM »

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

Well, I think he may be destroing the UMP in the process. I don't see how people like Jouanno and Luca and NKM will be able to stay in the same party than Luca, for example.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1911 on: April 27, 2012, 12:49:59 PM »

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1912 on: April 27, 2012, 01:26:49 PM »

BTW, just for information, here is fab's tracker seen in column graphs rather than lines. That way it's easier to see performances in a global perspective.



(last column indicates actual results)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1913 on: April 27, 2012, 01:55:21 PM »

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?

I think so, yeah. I think Fabien agrees, too. He's shooting himself in the foot with this strategy.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #1914 on: April 27, 2012, 03:46:19 PM »

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?

I think so, yeah. I think Fabien agrees, too. He's shooting himself in the foot with this strategy.

SIGH....

Read my blog tonight... read the numbers of vote transfers in the daily IFOP poll... gasp !

Juppé président ! Sad
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big bad fab
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« Reply #1915 on: April 27, 2012, 03:47:25 PM »

2012 Big Bad Tracker #53 - 27 April 2012   


      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.59
Sarkozy 45.41

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 53.59
Sarkozy 46.41

Expect far worse numbers for Sarkozy on Monday... Sad
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1916 on: April 28, 2012, 04:08:15 AM »

I doubt such blatant pandering even appeals to Front voters.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1917 on: April 28, 2012, 04:20:04 AM »

I read that he promised to authorize the police to shoot to kill any suspicious looking guy they encounter. I guess if Zimmerman skips bail then we might have just found where he is heading to.  
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #1918 on: April 28, 2012, 01:31:35 PM »

Mediapart published a document 'proving' Khaddafi's financial support for Sarko in 2007 today.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/2012/04/28/un-document-prouverait-le-financement-de-la-campagne-de-sarkozy-par-kadhafi_1692759_1471069.html

I find it difficult to estimate how big this is. But shouldn't this be very, very 'ouch' for Sarkozy if true?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1919 on: April 28, 2012, 02:15:12 PM »

Mediapart published a document 'proving' Khaddafi's financial support for Sarko in 2007 today.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/2012/04/28/un-document-prouverait-le-financement-de-la-campagne-de-sarkozy-par-kadhafi_1692759_1471069.html

I find it difficult to estimate how big this is. But shouldn't this be very, very 'ouch' for Sarkozy if true?

Scandals don't see to have had a huge impact in the campaign so far. There have been so many since 2010, that people are probably "saturated".
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #1920 on: April 28, 2012, 04:43:32 PM »


You guys had 17 years already Tongue
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Andrea
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« Reply #1921 on: April 29, 2012, 08:44:09 AM »

Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #1922 on: April 29, 2012, 08:56:33 AM »

Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?

Basically everybody throws them away in a trash can inside the polling booth, while a few leave them lying there while a few decide to take them home (I kept my remaining ballots, but I didn't take all 10).
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Meeker
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« Reply #1923 on: April 29, 2012, 10:12:06 AM »

Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1924 on: April 29, 2012, 11:13:09 AM »

Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.


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