Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 01, 2014, 03:22:20 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hashemite)
| | |-+  France 2012: the official thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 72 73 74 75 76 [77] 78 79 80 81 82 ... 87 Print
Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 125780 times)
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9225
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -5.22

View Profile
« Reply #1900 on: April 22, 2012, 02:20:36 am »
Ignore

For a Greek to chide another country for being militarily inept is amusing.  Have you been to Trebizond, Smyrna, or Constantinople lately?

No. But considering our size it's pretty amazing how many empires we defeated through the course of history, from Persians to Italians.
Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31259
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1901 on: April 22, 2012, 03:22:43 am »
Ignore

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
YL
YorkshireLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1259
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #1902 on: April 22, 2012, 04:02:37 am »
Ignore

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.

Given that said "newspaper" is rabidly xenophobic, has no credible position on the economy and is rabidly anti-EU, it sounds like they've found the right candidate...
Logged

Not a fan of UKIP, to put it mildly
ObserverIE
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 875
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -1.04

View Profile
« Reply #1903 on: April 22, 2012, 05:58:38 am »
Ignore

Did some further reading. Read about Melenchon. Don't understand how anyone in their right mind could support him. This election gets more depressing the more I find out about it.

Well, see how a "respectable" british newspaper just endorsed a rabid xenophobe with no credible economic program who wants to pull out of euro.

Given that said "newspaper" is rabidly xenophobic, has no credible position on the economy and is rabidly anti-EU, it sounds like they've found the right candidate...

Please, guys, this is actually an Irish (Canadian-Irish to be exact) self-hating far-right loon.
Logged

Andrea
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 484
Italy
View Profile
« Reply #1904 on: April 22, 2012, 07:53:32 am »
Ignore

La Tribune de Geneve has published results from Saint Pierre, Saint Martin, Guadaloupe, Martinique and Guyane
http://www.tdg.ch/monde/francois-hollande-arrive-tete-outremer/story/13506241
Logged
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31513
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #1905 on: April 22, 2012, 08:03:54 am »

This thread will now be locked, as per custom and all.
Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31513
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #1906 on: April 25, 2012, 12:38:30 pm »

This thread is now unlocked. Discussion of raw results, maps and other interesting stuff still goes in the results thread.
Logged

You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8743
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #1907 on: April 25, 2012, 01:20:47 pm »
Ignore

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2134636/Francois-Hollande-Sacre-bleu-Is-France-line-fail.html?ito=feeds-newsxml Roll Eyes
Logged

big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13946
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P

View Profile
« Reply #1908 on: April 25, 2012, 04:03:39 pm »
Ignore

2012 Big Bad Tracker #52 - 23 April 2012   



(the current thread was locked, so I'm a bit late to give you these numbers here Tongue)      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 55,11
Sarkozy 44,89

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.59
Sarkozy 45.41

Daily IFOP poll steady at 55-45 since Monday.

On my blog, an analysis of pollsters: Harris is the best one !... behind the Big Bad Tracker of course Grin !

Harris clearly ahead, with IFOP, TNS-Sofres, OpinionWay and IPSOS not so far away.
LH2 and CSA are quite bad. BVA is bad.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2012, 04:05:57 pm by big bad fab »Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31259
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1909 on: April 25, 2012, 04:34:33 pm »
Ignore

Anyways, here are the updated charts. I added the results to the 1st round tracker.





I don't think it's useful to add a tracker with voting transfer. The hypothetic advantages of correcting possible selection biases is overshadowed by the disadvantage of working with tiny samples.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31259
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1910 on: April 27, 2012, 11:42:47 am »
Ignore

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8937
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #1911 on: April 27, 2012, 12:33:56 pm »
Ignore

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

Well, I think he may be destroing the UMP in the process. I don't see how people like Jouanno and Luca and NKM will be able to stay in the same party than Luca, for example.
Logged
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16248
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #1912 on: April 27, 2012, 12:49:59 pm »
Ignore

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.

Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31259
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1913 on: April 27, 2012, 01:26:49 pm »
Ignore

BTW, just for information, here is fab's tracker seen in column graphs rather than lines. That way it's easier to see performances in a global perspective.



(last column indicates actual results)
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31259
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1914 on: April 27, 2012, 01:55:21 pm »
Ignore

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?

I think so, yeah. I think Fabien agrees, too. He's shooting himself in the foot with this strategy.
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13946
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P

View Profile
« Reply #1915 on: April 27, 2012, 03:46:19 pm »
Ignore

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?

I think so, yeah. I think Fabien agrees, too. He's shooting himself in the foot with this strategy.

SIGH....

Read my blog tonight... read the numbers of vote transfers in the daily IFOP poll... gasp !

Juppé président ! Sad
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13946
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P

View Profile
« Reply #1916 on: April 27, 2012, 03:47:25 pm »
Ignore

2012 Big Bad Tracker #53 - 27 April 2012   


      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.59
Sarkozy 45.41

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 53.59
Sarkozy 46.41

Expect far worse numbers for Sarkozy on Monday... Sad
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #1917 on: April 28, 2012, 04:08:15 am »
Ignore

I doubt such blatant pandering even appeals to Front voters.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9225
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -5.22

View Profile
« Reply #1918 on: April 28, 2012, 04:20:04 am »
Ignore

I read that he promised to authorize the police to shoot to kill any suspicious looking guy they encounter. I guess if Zimmerman skips bail then we might have just found where he is heading to.  
Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4233
Belgium


View Profile
« Reply #1919 on: April 28, 2012, 01:31:35 pm »
Ignore

Mediapart published a document 'proving' Khaddafi's financial support for Sarko in 2007 today.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/2012/04/28/un-document-prouverait-le-financement-de-la-campagne-de-sarkozy-par-kadhafi_1692759_1471069.html

I find it difficult to estimate how big this is. But shouldn't this be very, very 'ouch' for Sarkozy if true?
Logged

Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31259
France


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1920 on: April 28, 2012, 02:15:12 pm »
Ignore

Mediapart published a document 'proving' Khaddafi's financial support for Sarko in 2007 today.

http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presidentielle-2012/article/2012/04/28/un-document-prouverait-le-financement-de-la-campagne-de-sarkozy-par-kadhafi_1692759_1471069.html

I find it difficult to estimate how big this is. But shouldn't this be very, very 'ouch' for Sarkozy if true?

Scandals don't see to have had a huge impact in the campaign so far. There have been so many since 2010, that people are probably "saturated".
Logged

Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Pope Kalwejt I
Kalwejt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37452


View Profile
« Reply #1921 on: April 28, 2012, 04:43:32 pm »
Ignore

Juppé président ! Sad

You guys had 17 years already Tongue
Logged

Pope of the Northeast Catholic Church
Sovereign of the Papal Boats
Former Drunkard
Andrea
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 484
Italy
View Profile
« Reply #1922 on: April 29, 2012, 08:44:09 am »
Ignore

Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?
Logged
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31513
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #1923 on: April 29, 2012, 08:56:33 am »

Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?

Basically everybody throws them away in a trash can inside the polling booth, while a few leave them lying there while a few decide to take them home (I kept my remaining ballots, but I didn't take all 10).
Logged

Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #1924 on: April 29, 2012, 10:12:06 am »
Ignore

Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 72 73 74 75 76 [77] 78 79 80 81 82 ... 87 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines