France 2012: the official thread

[Keystone Phil]

Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.

[Californian Tony]

Just back from a Hollande meeting in Bercy ! It was impressive : around 20,000 people, and all very enthusiastic. We can feel how close victory is !

Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?

Basically everybody throws them away in a trash can inside the polling booth, while a few leave them lying there while a few decide to take them home (I kept my remaining ballots, but I didn't take all 10).

To my surprise, there was no trashcan in my polling booth. So I took the ballots away.

[Meeker]

Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.

Sure, but something like 98% of people manage to fill optical scan ballots out properly. Is the extra cost really worth the inconvenience of deciphering optical scan ballots during recounts?

[Tender Branson]

Why don't they just mark the name on a piece of paper? Seems like they could save a ton of money in printing costs.

Such a ballot would be disqualified anyway here. And I guess also in France.

[Meeker]

Yeah, getting rid of voter intent laws would also solve that problem. Not that I favor that, mind you.

[Andrea]

Can I ask a stupid question about voting procedures? My dad asked me this and I own him the answer.
When you go to polling stations, you pick a ballot paper indicating each candidates/lists and an envelope, then you go into the polling booth and put the paper with the name of your favourite candidate in the envelope. You go out and put the envelope in the ballot box.
What do you do with the ballot papers indicating the names of other candidates/lists? Do you throw them in the rubbish in the polling booth or do you have to take them home?

Basically everybody throws them away in a trash can inside the polling booth, while a few leave them lying there while a few decide to take them home (I kept my remaining ballots, but I didn't take all 10).

Thanks.

[DL]

Instead of all these multiple pieces of paper - why not just have one piece of paper with all the presidential candidates listed on it and have voters mark an "x" with a pencil beside the one they want.

[mileslunn]

Whats the most recent polling?  If all the National Front voters go to Sarkozy, that would give him on the edge and as long as he picks up a small portion of the MoDem supporters that would be enough to win.  At the same time I suspect like in many European countries a lot of those who vote for far right parties are people with low incomes who want to blame the immigrants for their economic misfortune thus I am not sure how keen they would be on Sarkozy's economic policies even if they like his immigration ones.  Finally what about turnout.  Any idea of which groups who voted in the first round will sit out the second while who are the groups that are most notorious for sitting out the first round and then voting in the second round in past elections as I understand turnout is usually higher in the second round suggesting some who sit out the first round show up in the second round.

[Tender Branson]

Hope for Sarkozy ?

New Ipsos poll shows:

53-47 Hollande

Sarkozy gaining ground with Le Pen and Bayrou voters.

[Californian Tony]

Hope for Sarkozy ?

New Ipsos poll shows:

53-47 Hollande

Sarkozy gaining ground with Le Pen and Bayrou voters.

WHAT

[Tender Branson]

Hope for Sarkozy ?

New Ipsos poll shows:

53-47 Hollande

Sarkozy gaining ground with Le Pen and Bayrou voters.

WHAT

www.ipsos.fr

(Could be margin of error movement though, who knows ...)

[Californian Tony]

If this is not an outlier I'm going to bang my head on a wall until death ensues.

[Tender Branson]

If this is not an outlier I'm going to bang my head on a wall until death ensues.

What are the chances that we'll see ANY poll with Sarkozy at 48% this week ?

BTW, has there been any poll with him at 48% since Election 2007 ? Don't think so ...

[Californian Tony]

If this is not an outlier I'm going to bang my head on a wall until death ensues.

What are the chances that we'll see ANY poll with Sarkozy at 48% this week ?

What can I say ? Let's wait and see. *sigh*

BTW, has there been any poll with him at 48% since Election 2007 ? Don't think so...

I'm sure there were a few. He started trailing so massively only by the end of 2010, after a series of scandals. Before, the polls were quite close apart from those against DSK.

[RedPrometheus]

I think in the end it the result will be more like 53-47 or even 52-48 but nevertheless Hollande will win.

Sarkozy is a fairly strong campaigner, but Hollande is fairly boring, but Hollande seems to have the enthusiasm on his side.

[Hashemite]

From the reaction you'd think that it was a poll showing him 10 points ahead.

[Californian Tony]

From the reaction you'd think that it was a poll showing him 10 points ahead.

Doesn't the idea that Sarkozy is gaining ground after his far-right turn freak you out too ?

[Bacon King]

From the reaction you'd think that it was a poll showing him 10 points ahead.

Doesn't the idea that Sarkozy is gaining ground after his far-right turn freak you out too ?

The weird thing is though that if you look at the poll, though, his support from Le Pen voters has actually dropped. Somehow, according to Ipsos, over the past week Bayrou voters have gone from 33% Hollande, 32% Sarkozy, 35% no voting intentions, to 40% Sarkozy, 34% Hollande, 26% no intentions. There's also a slight decline in the number of Melanchon voters saying they'll vote for Hollande.

That poll basically says the exact opposite of everything that I think would be happening.

[Sibboleth]

An incumbent trailing by six with about thirty seconds to go is still an incumbent in a hell of a lot of trouble. He's going to need to be closer - and consistently - to have much of a prayer.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

[DL]

The only way Sarkozy could win would be if all the polls in France were as spectacularly wrong as they were in the recent election in Alberta!! (ie: incumbent is supposed to lose by 8 points and instead wins by 10 points)...not a chance.

In 2007 as i recall the final numbers for Sarkozy and Royal were exactly what the final polls predicted.

[Tender Branson]

The only way Sarkozy could win would be if all the polls in France were as spectacularly wrong as they were in the recent election in Alberta!! (ie: incumbent is supposed to lose by 8 points and instead wins by 10 points)...not a chance.

In 2007 as i recall the final numbers for Sarkozy and Royal were exactly what the final polls predicted.

Sarkozy overpolled by about 2%. He polled an average of 55% and got 53%.

[Lief]

Are French polls that accurate that a shift of one point is some big news?

[Senator Kalwejt]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?