France 2012: the official thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2024, 11:44:07 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  France 2012: the official thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 74 75 76 77 78 [79] 80 81 82 83 84 ... 87
Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 358035 times)
homelycooking
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,302
Belize


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1950 on: April 30, 2012, 02:45:40 PM »

Aside from the trolling, Phil, I think what they're trying to get at is this: what makes you so certain? You've been adamant that Sarkozy will win for the whole campaign.
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,344
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1951 on: April 30, 2012, 02:53:52 PM »

2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   


      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ? Tongue
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1952 on: April 30, 2012, 02:56:53 PM »


Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic.

Like Santorum won reelection in 2006?

Like Toomey won in 2010, yes.
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,028
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1953 on: April 30, 2012, 03:18:01 PM »

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1954 on: April 30, 2012, 03:20:42 PM »

Aside from the trolling, Phil, I think what they're trying to get at is this: what makes you so certain? You've been adamant that Sarkozy will win for the whole campaign.

I imagine nothing. He's just half-trolling and will have bragging rights in the unlikely event that Sarkozy actually wins.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1955 on: April 30, 2012, 03:51:42 PM »

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1956 on: April 30, 2012, 03:56:33 PM »

Aside from the trolling, Phil, I think what they're trying to get at is this: what makes you so certain? You've been adamant that Sarkozy will win for the whole campaign.

I imagine nothing. He's just half-trolling and will have bragging rights in the unlikely event that Sarkozy actually wins.

Ding ding ding.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,773
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1957 on: April 30, 2012, 04:11:15 PM »


Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic.

Like Santorum won reelection in 2006?

It seems in most European elections, polls tend to underestimate support of parties on the right so I still think a Sarkozy win is possible but not likely.  Either way I don't think Hollande will win by 10 points as some polls are suggesting.  It will be much closer.  In the case of the US, they usually probe on one's likeliness to vote thus groups such as younger Americans, minorities who tend to lean left but have lower turnout rates are weighted based on how many plan to vote, not what percentage of the population they represent.  In the case of the US, only those who say they are likely or certain to vote are included whereas in most other places, they don't probe likeliness to vote and they weight each subgroup based on what share of the population they represent rather than what share of the electorate who shows up they represent.
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,028
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1958 on: April 30, 2012, 04:15:08 PM »

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,802
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1959 on: April 30, 2012, 04:16:16 PM »

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,773
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1960 on: April 30, 2012, 04:18:32 PM »

Polls can be wrong too.  Remember the 1992 election in Britain where every poll suggested Labour Party would win but the Conservatives did.  Likewise here in Canada, almost every poll predicted the right wing Wild Rose Alliance would win the Alberta provincial election and instead the more moderate Progressive Conservatives ended winning quite handily.  A lot will depend on who shows up and also how the undecideds break.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1961 on: April 30, 2012, 04:20:49 PM »

Toomey did underperform. Sarko still could win, but it would be one hell of an upset, and I would say Sarko seems set to lose in 2012 but overperform, losing 53-47, 52-48, or even 51-49. I think that might position him well for a comeback in 2017 -- he's still fairly young, and having lost once doesn't seem to be much of a taboo in France.

This race is reminding me of the recent election in Alberta to some extent -- there, the final polls showed the embattled incumbent gaining ground, with the last poll showing just a 2-point margin, while ultimately the incumbent won by 10 points. It's difficult for me to even try to imagine Antonio's reaction if all the polls show Hollande ahead and then Sarko randomly wins 55-45.

But, Hollande is probably going to win. Maybe Sarko has a 20% chance at best.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,773
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1962 on: April 30, 2012, 04:24:50 PM »

When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1963 on: April 30, 2012, 04:29:40 PM »

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.
Logged
Colbert
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 474
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1964 on: April 30, 2012, 04:34:40 PM »

When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.



i'm not sure of that. Left don't have majority on the country. If there is a poor turnout, this will be the sign than bayrou and marine voters stay home

if there is a strong turnout, the result would be close (but with a hollandist victory whatever)
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,802
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1965 on: April 30, 2012, 04:35:20 PM »

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.

How can you say you're giving a correct prediction? Do you know something the rest of the people don't? Because even Fab, a French person living in France and supporting Sarkozy recognizes Hollande will win.

Let's talk about this on Monday 6th Wink Then, you can say you're sure Santorum will be the nominee in 2016.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,773
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1966 on: April 30, 2012, 04:37:51 PM »

When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.



i'm not sure of that. Left don't have majority on the country. If there is a poor turnout, this will be the sign than bayrou and marine voters stay home

if there is a strong turnout, the result would be close (but with a hollandist victory whatever)

Good point.  I just know in general the right does better amongst those who are more likely to show up.  I do agree that in France there are slightly more on the right than the left.  In fact in most European countries those on the right outnumber the left notwithstanding the image of Europe being a left wing continent.
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,028
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1967 on: April 30, 2012, 04:39:38 PM »

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

I don't care about the spat with px75.  I'm now referring only to this quote:


Again, I was asking if maybe you meant in 2017, or some other future election?
Logged
Colbert
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 474
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1968 on: April 30, 2012, 04:40:16 PM »

i had already made a map of total left vs right without bayrou :





and there is a map total left without total non-left (from bayrou to marine)





this map is not significative for the non-left, but it is for the left
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,773
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1969 on: April 30, 2012, 04:43:36 PM »

i had already made a map of total left vs right without bayrou :





and there is a map total left without total non-left (from bayrou to marine)





this map is not significative for the non-left, but it is for the left


Would you have one where Marine + Sarkozy exceeded 50% and then also one where Hollande + Left Party exceeded 50%.  Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.
Logged
Colbert
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 474
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1970 on: April 30, 2012, 04:45:44 PM »

i'll made it just now for you, wait a sec
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,403
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1971 on: April 30, 2012, 04:51:07 PM »


Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.

What about Germany where the SDP, Green and Linke are often over 50%?
Logged
Colbert
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 474
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1972 on: April 30, 2012, 04:52:56 PM »

Here it is :

red : absolute majority hollande-mélenchon
blue : absolute majority sarkozy-MLP


Logged
Colbert
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 474
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1973 on: April 30, 2012, 04:56:52 PM »

same map, but with joly with left, and NDA with right


Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1974 on: April 30, 2012, 04:59:31 PM »

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.

How can you say you're giving a correct prediction? Do you know something the rest of the people don't? Because even Fab, a French person living in France and supporting Sarkozy recognizes Hollande will win.

Let's talk about this on Monday 6th Wink Then, you can say you're sure Santorum will be the nominee in 2016.

...

I refuse to believe you are this dense. I posted my Toomey prediction - which I stated was my correct prediction - as proof that my predictions aren't necessarily wrong. This means my prediction about Sarkozy winning could be correct just as some of my other predictions have been correct.

This really is not difficult to understand.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 74 75 76 77 78 [79] 80 81 82 83 84 ... 87  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.059 seconds with 12 queries.