France 2012: the official thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic.

Like Santorum won reelection in 2006?

[homelycooking]

Aside from the trolling, Phil, I think what they're trying to get at is this: what makes you so certain? You've been adamant that Sarkozy will win for the whole campaign.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   

      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ?

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic.

Like Santorum won reelection in 2006?

Like Toomey won in 2010, yes.

[Joe Republic]

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

[I left.]

Aside from the trolling, Phil, I think what they're trying to get at is this: what makes you so certain? You've been adamant that Sarkozy will win for the whole campaign.

I imagine nothing. He's just half-trolling and will have bragging rights in the unlikely event that Sarkozy actually wins.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

[Meeker]

Aside from the trolling, Phil, I think what they're trying to get at is this: what makes you so certain? You've been adamant that Sarkozy will win for the whole campaign.

I imagine nothing. He's just half-trolling and will have bragging rights in the unlikely event that Sarkozy actually wins.

Ding ding ding.

[mileslunn]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic.

Like Santorum won reelection in 2006?

It seems in most European elections, polls tend to underestimate support of parties on the right so I still think a Sarkozy win is possible but not likely.  Either way I don't think Hollande will win by 10 points as some polls are suggesting.  It will be much closer.  In the case of the US, they usually probe on one's likeliness to vote thus groups such as younger Americans, minorities who tend to lean left but have lower turnout rates are weighted based on how many plan to vote, not what percentage of the population they represent.  In the case of the US, only those who say they are likely or certain to vote are included whereas in most other places, they don't probe likeliness to vote and they weight each subgroup based on what share of the population they represent rather than what share of the electorate who shows up they represent.

[Joe Republic]

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

[JulioMadrid]

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

[mileslunn]

Polls can be wrong too.  Remember the 1992 election in Britain where every poll suggested Labour Party would win but the Conservatives did.  Likewise here in Canada, almost every poll predicted the right wing Wild Rose Alliance would win the Alberta provincial election and instead the more moderate Progressive Conservatives ended winning quite handily.  A lot will depend on who shows up and also how the undecideds break.

[Vosem]

Toomey did underperform. Sarko still could win, but it would be one hell of an upset, and I would say Sarko seems set to lose in 2012 but overperform, losing 53-47, 52-48, or even 51-49. I think that might position him well for a comeback in 2017 -- he's still fairly young, and having lost once doesn't seem to be much of a taboo in France.

This race is reminding me of the recent election in Alberta to some extent -- there, the final polls showed the embattled incumbent gaining ground, with the last poll showing just a 2-point margin, while ultimately the incumbent won by 10 points. It's difficult for me to even try to imagine Antonio's reaction if all the polls show Hollande ahead and then Sarko randomly wins 55-45.

But, Hollande is probably going to win. Maybe Sarko has a 20% chance at best.

[mileslunn]

When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.

[Colbert]

When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.

i'm not sure of that. Left don't have majority on the country. If there is a poor turnout, this will be the sign than bayrou and marine voters stay home

if there is a strong turnout, the result would be close (but with a hollandist victory whatever)

[JulioMadrid]

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.

How can you say you're giving a correct prediction? Do you know something the rest of the people don't? Because even Fab, a French person living in France and supporting Sarkozy recognizes Hollande will win.

Let's talk about this on Monday 6th Then, you can say you're sure Santorum will be the nominee in 2016.

[mileslunn]

When do the last polls come out anyways.  I often look for what direction the late breakers are heading so if we have some polls in the next day or so with Sarkozy at 48-52 or 49-51 and the trend continues on E-day, he could pull it off.  Also turnout could be a factor too as a poor turnout would probably favour Sarkozy since the demographics who traditionally have the highest turnout rates usually favour parties on the right.  I would say 20% maybe even as high as 25% sounds about right.  If anyone wants to see polls badly messing up, check out the most recent Alberta election, although I would be shocked if something that dramatic happened.

i'm not sure of that. Left don't have majority on the country. If there is a poor turnout, this will be the sign than bayrou and marine voters stay home

if there is a strong turnout, the result would be close (but with a hollandist victory whatever)

Good point.  I just know in general the right does better amongst those who are more likely to show up.  I do agree that in France there are slightly more on the right than the left.  In fact in most European countries those on the right outnumber the left notwithstanding the image of Europe being a left wing continent.

[Joe Republic]

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

I don't care about the spat with px75.  I'm now referring only to this quote:

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Again, I was asking if maybe you meant in 2017, or some other future election?

[Colbert]

i had already made a map of total left vs right without bayrou :





and there is a map total left without total non-left (from bayrou to marine)





this map is not significative for the non-left, but it is for the left

[mileslunn]

i had already made a map of total left vs right without bayrou :





and there is a map total left without total non-left (from bayrou to marine)





this map is not significative for the non-left, but it is for the left

Would you have one where Marine + Sarkozy exceeded 50% and then also one where Hollande + Left Party exceeded 50%.  Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.

[Colbert]

i'll made it just now for you, wait a sec

[DL]

Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.

What about Germany where the SDP, Green and Linke are often over 50%?

[Colbert]

Here it is :

red : absolute majority hollande-mélenchon
blue : absolute majority sarkozy-MLP

[Colbert]

same map, but with joly with left, and NDA with right