France 2012: the official thread

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.

How can you say you're giving a correct prediction? Do you know something the rest of the people don't? Because even Fab, a French person living in France and supporting Sarkozy recognizes Hollande will win.

Let's talk about this on Monday 6th Then, you can say you're sure Santorum will be the nominee in 2016.

...

I refuse to believe you are this dense. I posted my Toomey prediction - which I stated was my correct prediction - as proof that my predictions aren't necessarily wrong. This means my prediction about Sarkozy winning could be correct just as some of my other predictions have been correct.

This really is not difficult to understand.

[mileslunn]

Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.

What about Germany where the SDP, Green and Linke are often over 50%?

Sometimes, but not always.  True a lot depends on how many parties you have on each side as not everybody blindly votes on ideology.

[mileslunn]

same map, but with joly with left, and NDA with right

So otherwise there are more right wing than left wing areas but in most parts of the country neither side has a clear majority.  Not too unusual though when you have a centrist option.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't care about the spat with px75.  I'm now referring only to this quote:

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Again, I was asking if maybe you meant in 2017, or some other future election?

...

I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.

[Colbert]

centre is pretty weak.


In my opinion, this election is a referendum anti-sarko more than other thing

[Joe Republic]

I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.

But that doesn't make any sense, Phil. 

Perhaps I'm not the one trolling in this thread.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   

      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ?

I re-post this, just in case...
Come on guys, this is not a "general discussion thread"....

[Keystone Phil]

I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.

But that doesn't make any sense, Phil. 

Perhaps I'm not the one trolling in this thread.

Joe, what doesn't make sense here? I believe Sarkozy will win in 2012. Px said, "Oh, like how Santorum won?" Since he was being a smartass about a past incorrect prediction, I decided to mention a correct prediction I made. That's the only reason why I mentioned Toomey. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy and Toomey being on the same electoral trajectory. This is not difficult to follow.

[Hashemite]

Wow, given that this thread has derailed into the worst thread on this forum, I'm happy this stupid election is going to be over soon and we'll all be able to go back to our regular activities. Phew.

As for the Sarkobump, I'll panic when he consistently hits 49 or 49.5. In the meantime, as a political cartographer who likes colourful maps, I will be pleased by anything which narrows the margin somewhat to make my maps more interesting.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Wow, given that this thread has derailed into the worst thread on this forum, I'm happy this stupid election is going to be over soon and we'll all be able to go back to our regular activities. Phew.

I think it was done on the sole intention of pissing off Al.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I find it a bit amusing that everybody talks about a poll that shows Hollande at 53% and not the other two from the same period who show him at 54 and 55%.

[Sibboleth]

tehdrama beneath the double warnings has been deleted. Take it outside, etc.

[Californian Tony]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   

      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ?

[Joe Republic]

tehdrama beneath the double warnings has been deleted. Take it outside, etc.

I didn't realize we weren't allowed to discuss election predictions in an election thread on a political message board any more.  Good to know.

[Sibboleth]

The Boardbashi does not approve of this display of dissent.

[Keystone Phil]

Le Pen to spoil her ballot. A bit of help for Sarkozy with centrist voters?

[asexual trans victimologist]

If he doesn't get enough FN support any help with the center might not end up mattering much.

[Meeker]

Marine Le Pen saying she doesn't like Sarkozy isn't really anything new.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

[DL]

I see no evidence that there is a "shy Sarkozy" effect. He did just as badly in the first round as all the polls predicted and in 2007 the polls all projected that he would get 55% and he ended up with 53%. If anything there was a "shy Royal" effect!

In the end, elections in France are very predictable and real upsets are rare. In 1974, the polls predicted Gisccard would win very narrowly and he won very narrowly. In 1981 the polls predicted Mitterrand would win very narrowly and won very narrowly. In 1988 the polls predicted Mitterrand would get easily re-elected and he was easily re-elected. In 1995 all the polls predicted Chirac would win and if anything the socialist Jospin made it closer than expected. We will never know what would have happened in 2002 if there had been a Chirac vs. Jospin second round...but again the results were all as predicted.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's not 2007 anymore. First of all, Sarkozy is an unpopular incumbent, not an "alternative" to both old-style politics, primairly represented by Chirac (not his internal ally by any means), and the epic fail called Segolene Royal, he was considered five years ago. Second of all, well before this point Segolene was already imploding and Sarko's victory (smaller than many polls predicted) was very likely.

And now, there's a giant Sarko fatigue and Hollande is nowhere close to be such an autodestructive failure like Segolene. 

"Shy Sarkozy effect"? Yeah right, just as McCain was elected due to "Bradley effect" four years ago There's no such thing.

[Hashemite]

Sarko winning probably requires something along the lines of 80-90% support from Panzergirl voters or something like 65-75% from Panzergirl and 60-65% from the Bearnese Twat. In other words, about as likely as Stephen Harper being a Liberal MP tomorrow.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's not 2007 anymore. First of all, Sarkozy is an unpopular incumbent, not an "alternative" to both old-style politics, primairly represented by Chirac (not his internal ally by any means), and the epic fail called Segolene Royal, he was considered five years ago. Second of all, well before this point Segolene was already imploding and Sarko's victory (smaller than many polls predicted) was very likely.

And now, there's a giant Sarko fatigue and Hollande is nowhere close to be such an autodestructive failure like Segolene. 

"Shy Sarkozy effect"? Yeah right, just as McCain was elected due to "Bradley effect" four years ago There's no such thing.

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

Well, Sarkozy's win in 2007 wasn't exactly a blowout either, even though he was much more popular and had weak opposition.