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| | |-+  France 2012: the official thread
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 111802 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1975 on: April 30, 2012, 04:59:31 pm »
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Toomey didn't win re-election in 2010.

Unless you're saying that Sarkozy will come back again and win in 2017?

Ok, good thing I didn't say "Like Toomey won re-election in 2010." I said he won, as I predicted. Px pointed out a bad prediction I made. I pointed out a good one. Next...

OK, but I don't really get what you're saying.  Like I asked, did you mean that Sarkozy is going to come back to run again and win in a future election?

...

Ok, I clarified this: px cited a bad prediction of mine to make a joke about how my predictions are wrong. I pointed to a correct prediction of mine so disprove this idea that the opposite of my predictions usually come true. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy winning a future election. You're reading too far into it.

Phil, do you realize that Toomey was supposed to win as polls predicted, while Sarko is expected to lose?

Oh, and IIRC, Toomey won by a hair at the end.

Ok, once again, you're applying my comment to performance. It has nothing to do with that. I'll spell it out very clearly:

Px smart ass routine -> Haha, Phil! Remember when you had that hilariously wrong prediction? This will end the same way.

My response -> Yeah, I got a prediction wrong. I've gotten others wrong, too, but here's an example of a correct prediction.

Really not hard to grasp, guys.

How can you say you're giving a correct prediction? Do you know something the rest of the people don't? Because even Fab, a French person living in France and supporting Sarkozy recognizes Hollande will win.

Let's talk about this on Monday 6th Wink Then, you can say you're sure Santorum will be the nominee in 2016.

...

I refuse to believe you are this dense. I posted my Toomey prediction - which I stated was my correct prediction - as proof that my predictions aren't necessarily wrong. This means my prediction about Sarkozy winning could be correct just as some of my other predictions have been correct.

This really is not difficult to understand.
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« Reply #1976 on: April 30, 2012, 05:00:12 pm »
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Either way I agree the left is not as strong as some think, although that is pretty much the case in almost every European country to varying degrees.  They are very few if any Western countries left where there are more people on the left than right.  Some would say Canada, although that is disputable either way.

What about Germany where the SDP, Green and Linke are often over 50%?

Sometimes, but not always.  True a lot depends on how many parties you have on each side as not everybody blindly votes on ideology.
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« Reply #1977 on: April 30, 2012, 05:01:14 pm »
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same map, but with joly with left, and NDA with right




So otherwise there are more right wing than left wing areas but in most parts of the country neither side has a clear majority.  Not too unusual though when you have a centrist option.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1978 on: April 30, 2012, 05:02:00 pm »
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I don't care about the spat with px75.  I'm now referring only to this quote:

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Again, I was asking if maybe you meant in 2017, or some other future election?

...

I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.
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« Reply #1979 on: April 30, 2012, 05:02:57 pm »
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centre is pretty weak.


In my opinion, this election is a referendum anti-sarko more than other thing
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1980 on: April 30, 2012, 05:03:57 pm »
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I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.

But that doesn't make any sense, Phil.  Huh

Perhaps I'm not the one trolling in this thread.
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« Reply #1981 on: April 30, 2012, 05:08:20 pm »
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2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   


      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ? Tongue

I re-post this, just in case...
Come on guys, this is not a "general discussion thread"....
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1982 on: April 30, 2012, 05:27:47 pm »
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I'm referring to 2012, Joe. You know that. Stop trolling.

But that doesn't make any sense, Phil.  Huh

Perhaps I'm not the one trolling in this thread.

Joe, what doesn't make sense here? I believe Sarkozy will win in 2012. Px said, "Oh, like how Santorum won?" Since he was being a smartass about a past incorrect prediction, I decided to mention a correct prediction I made. That's the only reason why I mentioned Toomey. It has nothing to do with Sarkozy and Toomey being on the same electoral trajectory. This is not difficult to follow.
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« Reply #1983 on: April 30, 2012, 06:55:22 pm »

Wow, given that this thread has derailed into the worst thread on this forum, I'm happy this stupid election is going to be over soon and we'll all be able to go back to our regular activities. Phew.

As for the Sarkobump, I'll panic when he consistently hits 49 or 49.5. In the meantime, as a political cartographer who likes colourful maps, I will be pleased by anything which narrows the margin somewhat to make my maps more interesting.
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« Reply #1984 on: April 30, 2012, 07:13:34 pm »
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Wow, given that this thread has derailed into the worst thread on this forum, I'm happy this stupid election is going to be over soon and we'll all be able to go back to our regular activities. Phew.

I think it was done on the sole intention of pissing off Al.
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« Reply #1985 on: April 30, 2012, 07:21:24 pm »
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I find it a bit amusing that everybody talks about a poll that shows Hollande at 53% and not the other two from the same period who show him at 54 and 55%.
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« Reply #1986 on: May 01, 2012, 05:18:51 am »

tehdrama beneath the double warnings has been deleted. Take it outside, etc.
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« Reply #1987 on: May 01, 2012, 06:21:06 am »
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2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   


      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ? Tongue

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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.
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« Reply #1988 on: May 01, 2012, 08:14:33 am »
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tehdrama beneath the double warnings has been deleted. Take it outside, etc.

I didn't realize we weren't allowed to discuss election predictions in an election thread on a political message board any more.  Good to know.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #1989 on: May 01, 2012, 10:09:46 am »

The Boardbashi does not approve of this display of dissent.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #1990 on: May 01, 2012, 10:54:34 am »
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Le Pen to spoil her ballot. A bit of help for Sarkozy with centrist voters?
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« Reply #1991 on: May 01, 2012, 01:05:22 pm »
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If he doesn't get enough FN support any help with the center might not end up mattering much.
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« Reply #1992 on: May 01, 2012, 01:57:38 pm »
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Marine Le Pen saying she doesn't like Sarkozy isn't really anything new.
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« Reply #1993 on: May 01, 2012, 02:00:53 pm »
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Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1994 on: May 01, 2012, 02:10:39 pm »
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Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.
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« Reply #1995 on: May 01, 2012, 03:11:35 pm »
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I see no evidence that there is a "shy Sarkozy" effect. He did just as badly in the first round as all the polls predicted and in 2007 the polls all projected that he would get 55% and he ended up with 53%. If anything there was a "shy Royal" effect!

In the end, elections in France are very predictable and real upsets are rare. In 1974, the polls predicted Gisccard would win very narrowly and he won very narrowly. In 1981 the polls predicted Mitterrand would win very narrowly and won very narrowly. In 1988 the polls predicted Mitterrand would get easily re-elected and he was easily re-elected. In 1995 all the polls predicted Chirac would win and if anything the socialist Jospin made it closer than expected. We will never know what would have happened in 2002 if there had been a Chirac vs. Jospin second round...but again the results were all as predicted.
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« Reply #1996 on: May 01, 2012, 03:28:42 pm »
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Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's not 2007 anymore. First of all, Sarkozy is an unpopular incumbent, not an "alternative" to both old-style politics, primairly represented by Chirac (not his internal ally by any means), and the epic fail called Segolene Royal, he was considered five years ago. Second of all, well before this point Segolene was already imploding and Sarko's victory (smaller than many polls predicted) was very likely.

And now, there's a giant Sarko fatigue and Hollande is nowhere close to be such an autodestructive failure like Segolene. 

"Shy Sarkozy effect"? Yeah right, just as McCain was elected due to "Bradley effect" four years ago Tongue There's no such thing.
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« Reply #1997 on: May 01, 2012, 04:09:56 pm »

Sarko winning probably requires something along the lines of 80-90% support from Panzergirl voters or something like 65-75% from Panzergirl and 60-65% from the Bearnese Twat. In other words, about as likely as Stephen Harper being a Liberal MP tomorrow.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1998 on: May 01, 2012, 04:54:18 pm »
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Sarkozy will be re-elected.

Elaborate.

Elaborate? Uh. Sarkozy will win re-election to a second term as President of the French Republic. Did I elaborate enough?

And what makes you believe so?

The Shy Sarkozy Effect and the French Left's history of snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It's not 2007 anymore. First of all, Sarkozy is an unpopular incumbent, not an "alternative" to both old-style politics, primairly represented by Chirac (not his internal ally by any means), and the epic fail called Segolene Royal, he was considered five years ago. Second of all, well before this point Segolene was already imploding and Sarko's victory (smaller than many polls predicted) was very likely.

And now, there's a giant Sarko fatigue and Hollande is nowhere close to be such an autodestructive failure like Segolene. 

"Shy Sarkozy effect"? Yeah right, just as McCain was elected due to "Bradley effect" four years ago Tongue There's no such thing.

Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.
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« Reply #1999 on: May 01, 2012, 05:01:03 pm »
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Wildly unpopular -> At 47% (or at least 46%)

Not exactly a huge margin to make up with a debate against a weak performer forthcoming.

Well, Sarkozy's win in 2007 wasn't exactly a blowout either, even though he was much more popular and had weak opposition.
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